EV-based road transportation is not viable

[mikeselectricstuff]

There are plenty of solutions for people who can't charge at home - e.g. in the UK, in some areas every other lamppost on the street has a chargepoint built in

I have an issue with this statement as it gets banded about by the EV fanboys to shut up anyone who says they can't charge up at home. It might work in some areas but its not a solution open to all.

Agreed. Public charging is horribly expensive as well. I'm 80% sure my first non-ICE car will be powered by hydrogen because that is better suitable & cheaper for my use compared to BEV. But first long haul trucking needs to accellerate implementing hydrogen fueling stations. Long haul trucks typically have ranges from 1200km to 2500km on a single tank. There is no way to match that using batteries.

Nobody needs that much range on one charge, due to driver time limitations, provided there is sufficiently fast charging.

[Marco]

charging infrastructure is infeasible for many car owners

Let say we make fuel 10x more expensive while keeping electricity prices the same, how infeasible would it remain? In the end electricity doesn't compete against the status quo, it competes against compressed hydrogen, liquid hydrogen and synthetic fuel ... none of the alternatives are cheap, the status quo is going bye bye.

think the third world countries where urban population lives predominately in high density residential buildings

The third world is flexible, they'll adapt.

CO2 emissions impact of EVs is comparable to impact of vehicles with internal combustion engine.

Even without looking at the calculations I know one thing for 100% certain, he is calculating from status quo ... which is bloody useless. At net zero steel will be refined with hydrogen, heavy machinery will run on LH2 etc etc etc. Only major non cyclical CO2 emissions at net zero will be from concrete.

I agree with the author. ICE vehicles are not going anywhere any time soon.

The US is rich enough to go net zero by 2050, if they say "go net zero too, or kiss trade with us goodbye" then it will likely be cheaper to follow the transition than to lose the trading partner.

[tom66]

I presume that is the same speed up hill and down dale

What would the power meter show going at the same speed on the flat with zero wind?

Indeed.

On the flat, at 70 mph with no head or tailwind, about 20%.  The power meter at 100% represents around 80kW. (It's got weird mapping as the whole car has 150kW and it goes up to 140%, but we'll ignore "sport mode" for now.)   So you need roughly 18kW to maintain that speed.

This gives you an idea of efficiency for an EV at motorway speeds.  In ideal conditions, 60kWh would get you 3.3 hours of driving, or 233 miles - equivalent to 3.8 miles per kWh.  However, once you add variability - hills, stopping, acceleration, plus other consumers, mostly heating/AC, you'll find the figure drops.  A 60kWh car can usually do about 210 miles on the motorway consistently.

I suspect for some time 60kWh batteries will be the standard for EVs. 

[mendip_discovery]

charging infrastructure is infeasible for many car owners

Let say we make fuel 10x more expensive while keeping electricity prices the same, how infeasible would it remain? In the end electricity doesn't compete against the status quo, it competes against compressed hydrogen, liquid hydrogen and synthetic fuel ... none of the alternatives are cheap, the status quo is going bye bye.

Crikey at x2 we are already close to breaking point with it pushing up costs. EV have been spoilt for years with road tax reductions, incentives etc. If they increase fuel prices to offset EV charging points I feel you might have a riot on your hands soon enough. The governments of the world are throwing money at this and many startups are making use if this, some even get attention from Dave.

With regards to lorries that go miles on a tank. Drivers can drive for x hours but to get around this they will use two drivers, one sleeping while the other drives. They do stop but these even on a fast charge will need a few hours on a fast charge.

Let us just say there are many many problems to solve and putting pressure on industry to solve these issues will help move things forward but I just hope the politicians can stop meddling.

I would love to see motorsports get involved in solving some more of the issues as they are quite good at it, I know some are using bio fuels more, the ev racing is doing well. I was pleased with the efforts of the Isle of Man TT did with making a race just for EV bikes and that cause a massive surge in fast yet practical bikes that could suffer the TT mountain circuit.

[nctnico]

There are plenty of solutions for people who can't charge at home - e.g. in the UK, in some areas every other lamppost on the street has a chargepoint built in

I have an issue with this statement as it gets banded about by the EV fanboys to shut up anyone who says they can't charge up at home. It might work in some areas but its not a solution open to all.

Agreed. Public charging is horribly expensive as well. I'm 80% sure my first non-ICE car will be powered by hydrogen because that is better suitable & cheaper for my use compared to BEV. But first long haul trucking needs to accellerate implementing hydrogen fueling stations. Long haul trucks typically have ranges from 1200km to 2500km on a single tank. There is no way to match that using batteries.

Nobody needs that much range on one charge, due to driver time limitations, provided there is sufficiently fast charging.

That is what some truck manufacturers also say about their electric trucks. But I doubt they have been on the road looking at the real life of a trucker. IF it would make sense to have a smaller range for a truck, the diesel tanks would be smaller already. They need to haul all the extra weight along as well. But appearantly, hauling the fuel along makes using the truck more efficient.

Some electric truck manufacturers state that a truck would only need to have about 4.5 hours of range because the driver needs to rest. But the thing is: the driver needs to rest, not work on charging the truck so getting the charging setup (waiting in line, doing the payment, etc) all cuts into driving time. Not rest time!

And then there is the practical side. My wife and I drive >20k km through Europe every year. One of my observations is that many parking spaces where trucks stop (with room for 50 to 200 trucks) along highways are not gas stations. About 1 in 5 parking spaces have a gas station. And in many cases these parking spaces are chuck full with trucks. This translates into needing 5 times more charging stations (compared to gas stations) that need to be able 50 to 200 trucks simultaneously. That would require tremendous amounts of energy. A long haul truck consumes about 30 to 40 liters of diesel per 100km.

On top of that, it happens that truck drivers need to take their break on the hard shoulder or a small parking spot because their driving time is up. How are those drivers going to get their trucks charged?

Bottom line: Long haul trucks on batteries is not going to work in the next 20 years -period-.

Now ofcourse you can argue that drivers should take care of charging more often, do more planning, yadda, yadda, yadda, yadda but that takes you right back to the reason why long haul tucks have such large fuel tanks: fussing with fueling and needing to care about range takes too much time away from driving and thus costs too much money.

[Marco]

Crikey at x2 we are already close to breaking point with it pushing up costs. EV have been spoilt for years with road tax reductions, incentives etc. If they increase fuel prices to offset EV charging points I feel you might have a riot on your hands soon enough. The governments of the world are throwing money at this and many startups are making use if this, some even get attention from Dave.

First you simply ban sales of new ICE cars, they only want net zero in 30 years. They don't have to boil the frog tomorrow.

[sokoloff]

But first long haul trucking needs to accellerate implementing hydrogen fueling stations. Long haul trucks typically have ranges from 1200km to 2500km on a single tank. There is no way to match that using batteries.

Nobody needs that much range on one charge, due to driver time limitations, provided there is sufficiently fast charging.

For time-sensitive ground transit, we do team driving in the US (one truck and trailer, two drivers).

[james_s]

I have an issue with this statement as it gets banded about by the EV fanboys to shut up anyone who says they can't charge up at home. It might work in some areas but its not a solution open to all.

We have lamposts here, they are all on the other side of the pavement so the cable would have to drape across the pavement. In the past 2 years, 2 new ones have been installed as prior to that 500m has been covered by 1 lamp post. Now that 500m has 3. So 3 lamposts are to charge 17 cars. So though this maybe a solution for some areas its going to be costly to upgrade in my area. The roads and pavements are not wide enough to accommodate it. Though if our parish council have anything to do with it they would much prefer to have the road cleared of cars for it makes it hard for them to drive the luxobarge they have though the village.

My dad had a Tesla as his only vehicle for about the last 8 months of his life. He lived in a condo and couldn't charge at home so he relied entirely on superchargers and destination charging, ie plugging in at businesses he visited and the yacht club where he kept his boat. I personally wouldn't get an EV if I couldn't charge at home since home charging is by far the most compelling feature they offer, but it seemed to work for him.

I don't know why we need so many threads about this but hydrogen is DOA. California, arguably one of the most progressive places on the planet tried it and it failed, there are only a handful of stations and as far as I recall there is only one company, Toyota that has built a hydrogen powered car. I've never seen one exept in pictures and never known anyone that had one or even anyone that has seen one. They're extremely niche, BEV has won and the battle is over, there are already millions of them on the roads and they're selling as fast as automakers can build them. I'll be curious to see how long Toyota clings to the hydrogen fantasy before they finally accept that it's a dead end and throw in the towel.

[bdunham7]

But appearantly, hauling the fuel along makes using the truck more efficient.

Here in the US diesel prices vary a lot by region.  Long distance truckers save a lot of money by being able to buy their fuel where it costs the least.  Ranges on US tractor-trailers can exceed 2000 miles even with a full cargo load (80,000lbs GVW).

Electricity prices vary a lot too.  I would want my EV to have enough range for my entire day's driving under almost all circumstances because outside charging is much more expensive and inconvenient compared to home.  If I have to go someplace and wait even ten minutes, I may as well take my old ICE vehicle to Costco for gas and get 5 dozen eggs while I'm at it.

[james_s]

IMO we should keep running semi trucks on diesel for the foreseeable future, propane or CNG are also viable options if they really want to phase out diesel for that purpose. The resources are far better spent to electrify passenger cars, the technology is already here and already mature, the cars are reliable and there have been models on the market for years already that can go 300+ miles. They're also the vehicles that dominate the traffic in the areas closest to where most people live.

[sokoloff]

Here it’s common for office garages to have charging at the retail rate for a kWh. (Often, they have rooftop solar and are selling electricity to the EV at retail, but that’s a good kind of hack IMO.)

If you have your own rooftop solar and are home to charge when the sun is shining, you have this same benefit, but most office workers work in the daytime.

[tom66]

That is what some truck manufacturers also say about their electric trucks. But I doubt they have been on the road looking at the real life of a trucker. IF it would make sense to have a smaller range for a truck, the diesel tanks would be smaller already. They need to haul all the extra weight along as well. But appearantly, hauling the fuel along makes using the truck more efficient.

The incremental cost of a bigger fuel tank for a small improvement in convenience is nothing compared to the cost of bigger batteries. So EV trucks will certainly have less range than diesel trucks.  But the question is, does it matter too much if stopping for rest every 8 hours (legal limit)?   I think the only time it does, is drivers that might work in pairs on the same truck.  As far as I know, this is pretty uncommon.

Some electric truck manufacturers state that a truck would only need to have about 4.5 hours of range because the driver needs to rest. But the thing is: the driver needs to rest, not work on charging the truck so getting the charging setup (waiting in line, doing the payment, etc) all cuts into driving time. Not rest time!

Trucks do benefit from one thing that cars don't, and that is that they typically run well prepared routes.  A truck might move goods from one warehouse to another, for example.  An electric truck would then only be selected (a) if the journey makes sense for that class of vehicle, i.e. charging is available and journey is within range,  and (b) it would be planned around that in terms of total time and starting/finishing charge etc.  The first task when unloading would be to plug the truck in.  There is no chance the driver will be waving a credit card in front of the reader, this will be done with VIN and/or plug and charge capability with an invoice issued directly to the operator.  (Plug and charge is part of CCS but few public chargers implement it yet, as vehicle manufacturers have been slow to adopt it.  I hope that changes soon.)

[james_s]

I don't really see the issue of charging at rest stops, truckers already fill up with diesel at truckstops. There's no reason it has to be an involved process, just have a charger at each parking spot, hop out and plug it in then get back in the truck and rest. I still think trucks should be a low priority to electrify but that's no reason to make up phony reasons why it won't work.

[tggzzz]

There are plenty of solutions for people who can't charge at home - e.g. in the UK, in some areas every other lamppost on the street has a chargepoint built in

I have an issue with this statement as it gets banded about by the EV fanboys to shut up anyone who says they can't charge up at home. It might work in some areas but its not a solution open to all.

Agreed. Public charging is horribly expensive as well. I'm 80% sure my first non-ICE car will be powered by hydrogen because that is better suitable & cheaper for my use compared to BEV. But first long haul trucking needs to accellerate implementing hydrogen fueling stations. Long haul trucks typically have ranges from 1200km to 2500km on a single tank. There is no way to match that using batteries.

Nobody needs that much range on one charge, due to driver time limitations, provided there is sufficiently fast charging.

You should add condition "guaranteed access on demand to such charging".

But that's much like saying nobody needs their own car if public transport arrives every 10minutes at the expected time.

[Bud]

I may as well take my old ICE vehicle to Costco for gas and get 5 dozen eggs while I'm at it.

Gee, you sure your cholesterol is not high?   

[MadScientist]

Hydrogen is DOA for cars. It’s simply another hydrocarbon , has safety storage and distribution issues . It’s merely petrol under another name

Thd industry has chosen its next tech its the BEV ALL major car companies are in transiston to a complete BEV future

Thd debate is long over. As a 5 year EV owner with 276,000km on my EV. BEVs ldelivers the solution , it’s a better car then it’s ice equivalent

Hence certainly by 2035 personal private transport will be Bev , commercial will take longer but will arrive with battery trucks etc.

With ranges now approaching 600 km , increasing people don’t need nightly charging no more then they fill up every day today. The average daily car distance in the UK is 14 km,  Many many people don’t do daily marathon drives every day

The charge solution isvt lampposts etc it’s large scale high power “ electric filling stations” and that’s the way it’s going , low power charging has little future as batteries get bigger , hence expect multi station EV charging with high power chargers called “ esso “ etc.

Given the performances I think we’ll see acceleration. Limits on EVs soon they blow ice cars off the road

The future is mapped  out , it’s just a matter of time now

[bdunham7]

Hydrogen is DOA for cars. It’s simply another hydrocarbon

Well, it's actually not.   

[MadScientist]

Don’t matter it’s a dead duck going nowhere thd car industry isn’t interested

[sokoloff]

The average daily car distance in the UK is 14 km,

That seems low and doesn’t match the data I found in searching. Do you have a different source?

https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/cheap-car-insurance/average-car-mileage-uk says ~20 miles/32 km per day.

[MadScientist]

The average daily car distance in the UK is 14 km,

That seems low and doesn’t match the data I found in searching. Do you have a different source?

https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/cheap-car-insurance/average-car-mileage-uk says ~20 miles/32 km per day.

At 32km you’re backing my point , BEV range is now exceeding many people’s car requirements hence I know several id6 cars owners that only charge once a week for example 

[nctnico]

Hydrogen is DOA for cars. It’s simply another hydrocarbon

Well, it's actually not.   

Agreed. The whole world is buzzing with hydrogen from renewable sources... History repeats itself. 100+ years ago BEVs already existed and the current BEVs still have the same issues with range and long charging times. And just like oil based fuels, hydrogen has the potential to avoid those issues.

'It works for me so it must work for everyone' isn't a strong argument. The same goes for average distance travelled. Arguing that way is just stupid. It is like saying the average person on the world eats half a slice of bread a day so everyone should be able to do with eating half a slice of bread a day.

[MadScientist]

Just like Betamax car companies have made their mind up it’s a BEV future

The bread analogy is apt it’s shows that people postulate edge cases as if they are mainstream when in fact average use cases are far more apt and point to real usage patterns

[SiliconWizard]

Hydrogen itself has no carbon.
But sure, the whole cycle has to be considered, from production to distribution, to storage. And things get a bit less pretty there.

Then hydrogen can either be used in fuel cells to power electric motors, or directly in appropriate engines. I have no definite certainty about which approach is best at this point, although I do not doubt some people already have those certainties, based on dodgy studies. A detail here, anyway.

EV-based transportation is not viable if we think of it as a 1 to 1 replacement of what we have now. I've been saying this all along, this will probably never happen. Switching to 100% EVs will mean fewer vehicles on the road, whether we use hydrogen or not. I know people usually don't want to hear that, and well, they can keep dreaming.

[MadScientist]

You make a statement with no backup. Bevs are  outselling ICE in many marketplaces , the consumer has made their mind up and it’s BEVs , the car companies see the writing on the wall

So the technical arguments ate moot the industry and consumers have decided

The is no evidence to back your claim that Bev will mean fewer private vehicles , in fact the opposite looks like being the case

Equally as advanced technology gets applied to road transport it will change anyway so it’s not a case of 1:1 replacement no more then cars duplicated horses ( they didn’t ) fundementalky usage patterns will change and AI etc will cause major usage shifts etc.

[Circlotron]

Regarding large trucks, often times the trailer is owned by some company and the tractor / prime mover is owned by a private individual. One option might be to have batteries and maybe even a drive motor in the trailer, and while the trailer is sitting around in a yard or being loaded it could be on charge. The driver could pull in to the destination, swap trailers, and be off straight away. What’s more, if the trailer battery had sufficient capacity the truck and trailer could go that much further than if powered by truck batteries alone. And the trailer owner could likely negotiate better rates seeing they are providing some of the required energy. Maybe even some degree of redundancy if in the unlikely chance the truck breaks down.