Author Topic: Covid 19 virus  (Read 196388 times)

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Offline donotdespisethesnake

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #275 on: March 14, 2020, 10:10:03 pm »
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.

evolution doesn't work that way, even a bit better is enough

I've no idea why you are doing so much hand waving over this, you agree with the premise that doing nothing is stupid. We have to act now, not take chances.
 
There is still ZERO proof for your assertion. Please just give up with the guesswork. Admit you have no proof. We will only find out with hindsight.


Bob
"All you said is just a bunch of opinions."
 

Offline not1xor1

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #276 on: March 14, 2020, 10:41:05 pm »
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.

evolution doesn't work that way, even a bit better is enough

I've no idea why you are doing so much hand waving over this, you agree with the premise that doing nothing is stupid. We have to act now, not take chances.
 
There is still ZERO proof for your assertion. Please just give up with the guesswork. Admit you have no proof. We will only find out with hindsight.

I was just dealing with the biology of viruses and if you ever mind to read any scientific paper you can find confirmation for what I wrote (even regarding the effect of A/C - I might even find the link of that study...).

Dealing with the current disease is a different matter and I fully support WHO guidelines (I added more details to my previous message).
 

Offline not1xor1

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #277 on: March 14, 2020, 11:01:55 pm »
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
AFAIK COVID-19 spread so much not because of the long spreading time before evident symptoms, but because many people did not have any noticeable symptoms or just thought they got ordinary flue.
Sure. The real number of infected today is 20-100x higher than reported in TV or on the web as "confirmed positive" (155k "confirmed" as of today - that number is about those "tested positive" only, it is NOT about "really infected").
Any expert will tell you the real numbers you will get only after the pandemic finishes. The authorities will provide a world-wide population sampling (of cov19 antibodies in the blood serum) and based on that you'll get the number of "infected". My bet is the fatality ratio will be lower than with flu (FR=deaths/infected).

yes the positive numbers we see today are those who got infected (on average) 5,1 days ago and besides them there are those who didn't show any symptoms, but fatality ratio will be much higher than flue because unlike flue we have no immunity against COVID-19.

Given the same conditions, e.g. on Andaman Islands people, who have never been exposed either to flue or COVID-19 viruses, flue might be more lethal (or might not), but for the vast majority of people in the world it is the other way.
 

Offline Electro Detective

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #278 on: March 14, 2020, 11:07:12 pm »
What's the EEVblog member body count so far?   :popcorn:

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Offline iMo

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #279 on: March 14, 2020, 11:07:54 pm »
Given the same conditions, e.g. on Andaman Islands people, who have never been exposed either to flue or COVID-19 viruses, flue might be more lethal (or might not), but for the vast majority of people in the world it is the other way.
Good example. And that is exactly what we want to know - the FR for flu vs. covid19 under your assumption above.
 

Offline Stray Electron

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #280 on: March 14, 2020, 11:35:23 pm »


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".
 

Offline Sredni

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #281 on: March 14, 2020, 11:59:03 pm »
The experts know already the XX% of the population will certainly acquire the virus this year. The Chinese and other statistics show ~80% of cases are with none or mild symptoms. With sufficient treatment of the difficult cases, under "normally" working hospital care, they can master it without more fatalities than with flu. That is what UK and Germany (and others) are targeting, imho.

Quote
Any expert will tell you the real numbers you will get only after the pandemic finishes. The authorities will provide a world-wide population sampling (of cov19 antibodies in the blood serum) and based on that you'll get the number of "infected". My bet is the fatality ratio will be lower than with flu (FR=deaths/infected).

In one cemetery of the  Italian city of Bergamo they buried 90 bodies in the last two weeks. Normally the number of burials is 120. Per year. The obituary pages in the local newspaper went from 1 page to 10 pages.
Just like the flu. Keep saying that.

You will sing another tune in two weeks time.

FYI: in the region of Veneto they made 20 thoudand tests. Only a small percentage turned out positive.
Where are all the asymptomatic carriers your 'hunch' requires?

EDIT: they are reaching ICU saturation in these very days. So, no, they were not left to die outside an ICU.
And, unless you expect covid-19 to enable time travel, there is a bit of a problem in assuming that most of the population got it and had the time to move from incubation to getting rid of the virus without having any critical case.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 12:03:37 am by Sredni »
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Offline james_s

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #282 on: March 15, 2020, 12:43:44 am »
In one cemetery of the  Italian city of Bergamo they buried 90 bodies in the last two weeks. Normally the number of burials is 120. Per year. The obituary pages in the local newspaper went from 1 page to 10 pages.
Just like the flu. Keep saying that.


That still doesn't really tell us anything conclusive. Was that region a hotspot for infections? Is it an area where a lot of people who are older or in poor health go to retire? 90 people in two weeks sounds like a lot but there must be many thousands of people who die every day. We don't know how many of those people died of Covid-19, and of those who did, how many of them were on the brink and would have died naturally within the next few months either way. I think we'll need to wait a few months to see what happens, either way I think it's a given we should take steps to not spread it, but if this panic continues nobody is going to care about the virus anymore because we'll all be looking for any job we can get just to put food on the table. To prevent a few thousand people dying of illness we could have 10 or more times that dying because they're homeless, can't afford food or medicine.

And for all the fuss and panic, does anyone here personally know anyone who died?
 

Offline edy

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #283 on: March 15, 2020, 12:54:44 am »
So the novel coronavirus is NOT like a flu. For one, it seems to be gradual over a few days and then develop into ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome). That is what kills people. And unlike the flu, which kills through allowing secondary bacterial infections to set in (which can be treated with antibiotics), the coronavirus overwhelms the lungs directly. Therefore the only way to reduce death is have respirators around and lots of them. It is also more contagious and the numbers also bear out that mortality is higher. Estimates in the 2-3% versus 0.1% for flu.

There is no reason to panic but because early and drastic intervention is needed to stop the rate of transmission and reduce new case count, that is the only way to keep our hospitals from getting over-saturated in cases which ultimately will be unable to treat because of lack of ventilators. All of this is to "widen and prolong" the bell curve of infection to keep under the threshold of what our health systems can care for. Nobody wants a spike (narrow tall bell curve) which will result in millions of people being sick simultaneously. We will just run out of hospital beds, machines and ventilators and many people who could otherwise be saved will die from this stupid reason.

« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 12:58:14 am by edy »
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Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #284 on: March 15, 2020, 01:13:50 am »


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life?  :)
Anybody got a syringe I can use to squeeze the magic smoke back into this?
 

Online nctnico

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #285 on: March 15, 2020, 01:25:35 am »
So the novel coronavirus is NOT like a flu. For one, it seems to be gradual over a few days and then develop into ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome).
This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery. I got pneumonia before when swimming in too cold water so I'm familiar with the feeling (which was much worse than it is now though).
Quote
That is what kills people.
I hope not; I'd like to stick around for a bit longer. Needless to say I'm staying at home.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Stray Electron

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #286 on: March 15, 2020, 01:42:10 am »


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life?  :)

   I won't say that :) :)
 

Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #287 on: March 15, 2020, 02:37:26 am »


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life?  :)

   I won't say that :) :)

But Christmas only comes once a year! (Must be a heck of an orgy though if it's the whole town!)  :)
Anybody got a syringe I can use to squeeze the magic smoke back into this?
 

Offline VK3DRB

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #288 on: March 15, 2020, 04:44:10 am »
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html

Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #289 on: March 15, 2020, 05:24:33 am »
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html

Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?
Have you ever been to Italy?
 

Offline Nusa

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #290 on: March 15, 2020, 05:44:04 am »
China is a country of 1.4 BILLION people. They have a LOT more human and construction resources to move around and focus than a country with 60 million people (Italy). If Australia had the same infection rate as Italy, they would likely be making hard choices on who to save as well.
 
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Offline carloserodriguez

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #291 on: March 15, 2020, 07:38:20 am »
You need to call a clinic or h whatever. You might need medi action now!
One think is getting not get it. Another is getting worst and not seeking help.
 Go to a clinic
 

Offline carloserodriguez

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #292 on: March 15, 2020, 07:43:42 am »
It's not age discrimination.
Tow people likely to die if they don get the machine.
One would recover based on known outcomes.
The other will not or over 50% like it I not and it's older.
Which one the try to save?
 

Offline iMo

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #293 on: March 15, 2020, 07:55:07 am »
This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery.
In mid March in Europe you may feel similar symptoms with a) cold (because people underestimate the still low temperatures while sunny days already), b) flu - because the flu season, c) hay fever - allergy season starts - people with pollen allergies and asthma, d) others. Thus only a test will tell you more..
 

Offline VK3DRB

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #294 on: March 15, 2020, 09:46:56 am »
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html

Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?
Have you ever been to Italy?

Yes I have. And I have driven a car around central Rome. If you can survive that, you can survive anything.
 

Offline VK3DRB

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #295 on: March 15, 2020, 11:10:59 am »
China is a country of 1.4 BILLION people. They have a LOT more human and construction resources to move around and focus than a country with 60 million people (Italy). If Australia had the same infection rate as Italy, they would likely be making hard choices on who to save as well.

I don't think it is population and resources. It is mindset. The communist government from the top would have decided to remove all red tape (no pun intended) to get the job done. Whoever project managed the building of the hospital in China in six days deserves the Nobel Prize for project management :-+.

The problem in Australia is the plethora of rules and regulations (building regulatory authorities, state government, local government etc) would stifle any fast path to building a hospital. If the Italians have anywhere near the building regulations we have, they have no hope either.

Still, making the choice of who lives and who dies based on age, is age discrimination by definition and that is illegal here. Based on probability of death (not just on age, but many factors) - that might be their exit clause. In any case, it is likely most democratic governments will be held to account on their preparedness and handling of the pandemic after it is all over.
 

Offline Nominal Animal

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #296 on: March 15, 2020, 11:37:14 am »
I don't think it is population and resources.
I agree.

Consider Finland: the government still insists that it is impossible, that our legal system does not allow, for any kind of border controls between Finland and other EU countries, not even to restrict the spread of the pandemic.  The politicians here really, really don't want their population replacement program through humanitarian immigration to be jeopardized in any way.  They even announced they won't test patients for the coronavirus anymore, "as the numbers don't matter much anymore".

It is completely a matter of will and being in charge.  Being in charge means being responsible for something, and that's a big no-no for Finnish politicians at least: they always need to have a scapegoat at hand, in case things go pear-shaped.
 
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Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #297 on: March 15, 2020, 12:17:58 pm »

[...]
The politicians here really, really don't want their population replacement program through humanitarian immigration to be jeopardized in any way.
[...]

Does a tin foil hat provide any form of protection against this?
 

Offline Nominal Animal

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #298 on: March 15, 2020, 01:37:04 pm »
Does a tin foil hat provide any form of protection against this?
It is not a conspiracy theory, it is just a consequence of their actions.

They believe, like the worker movement in 1918 in Finland believed, that Finland is doomed unless it merges with a larger union.  They aren't evil, or conspiring; just ignorant and wrong.  They genuinely believe that unless they replace Finns with humanitarian immigrants, something bad will happen to everyone; that it must be done for the world to be safe.  Sometimes that bad thing is genetics ("we need better genes", even though most humanitarian immigrants suffer from consanguinity more than Finns), sometimes it is the aging population ("we need someone to wipe our bums when we are old", even though employment rate among the immigrants is significantly lower than average, and raw numbers indicate each humanitarian immigrants is financially a negative net loss on average for the society), sometimes it is "white man's burden" (the tar in most slave ships was produced in Finland), sometimes international obligations, sometimes something else.

Did you know that Finns are basically what remains of the hunter-gather population all over Europe, up till agriculture came along?  (See e.g. this, a report by Swedish archaeologists, using bog corpses dating back 5000 years.)  No, neither do Finns.  We are still taught in school that we displaced Sami people, coming from a bend somewhere in the river Volga.  And that we should be ashamed for our history.  Being a proud Finn is worse than announcing oneself as a reborn Adolf Hitler.  Try waving a Finnish flag on a sunny non-national holiday, and you will be spat on.

Fifteen years ago, at Helsinki University, I took the mandatory Swedish class.  The lecturer asked the students how they identify themselves: as Helsinki'ers, as Finns, or as Europeans.  95% of the students -- everyone except me -- said they identify themselves primarily as Helsinki'er, then as an European, and laughed the idea of identifying as a Finn.  That is how deeply self-loathing is ingrained in current youth.  (Me, I'm a barrel-raised woodland creature, and as basic [in the derogatory sense] a finn as you can get.)

Everything I am saying here is easily verifiable.  I am not implying that there is someone wringing their hands together, cackling evilly, with a plan on how to replace the population in Finland with immigrants.  I am just saying that the current actions inevitably lead to that.

The most important of those actions, in the current pandemic, and pertinent to this thread, is their absolute refusal to even consider reinstating border controls.

The reason for that is that while the majority of Finns have clamored for border controls ever since 2015, and returning humanitarian immigrants to the safe EU countries they came from, our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls. 

If they now reinstated border controls, even for curbing the spread of the pandemic, they would immediately prove they have lied to Finnish citizens for years.

So, instead of doing the sane thing and protect everyone living in Finland by instating health inspection based border controls,
our beloved leaders are still claiming it would be illegal for them to do so.

The only reason to do so, is 1) to avoid being exposed as a liar, and 2) to avoid risking their long-term desire, of Finland being a haven for humanitarian immigration.

This is not a conspiracy theory, or any theory at all, because the first reason is a consequence of the second, and there are no other reasons stated by our politicians in the media (or even in private).
 
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Offline Stray Electron

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #299 on: March 15, 2020, 01:57:39 pm »


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life?  :)

   I won't say that :) :)

But Christmas only comes once a year! (Must be a heck of an orgy though if it's the whole town!)  :)

   Nah, I'm retired so now so Christmas comes most days of the year. Christmas Florida is one of those sort of hick places where they celebrate all of the time, if you know what I mean.

    FWIW my BIL lives in North Pole (Alaska)
 


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