Author Topic: Covid 19 virus  (Read 196235 times)

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Online Bud

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #350 on: March 16, 2020, 01:22:39 pm »
Amazon and eBay are cracking down on sellers of coronavirus items at inflated prices

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51909045
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Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #351 on: March 16, 2020, 01:34:04 pm »
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

Let's go further:

Probability of infection while in the store with the virus (keeping a meter of distance, washing hands, etc., rough estimate): 10%
Probability of getting infected per store visit 4.51%
Duration of the epidemic (estimate): 8 weeks

Number of visits to the store per week (case 1): 3
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 1): 24
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 1): 1-(1-0.0451)^24 = 67%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 2, a semi-"hoarder" like me): 1
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 2): 8
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 2): 1-(1-0.0451)^8 = 31%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 3, a prepared survivalist): 0
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 3): 0
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 3): 0

(Still a demonstration of bag-of-the-envelope calculation. Might be off by an order of magnitude.)

But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...

The time to be a survivalist is when a much more deadly disease spreads, at which point it might be mankind's only hope for avoiding extinction...
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #352 on: March 16, 2020, 01:39:08 pm »
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

I like the analysis.   But of the 10,000 infected people - how many of them will be out shopping as usual, rather than staying in bed?
 

Offline thinkfat

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #353 on: March 16, 2020, 01:44:22 pm »
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

Your calculation only makes sense if the distribution is random.. You should make that more accurate by using the number of infected people in your county (or even, town).
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Offline paulca

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #354 on: March 16, 2020, 02:04:13 pm »
I find it interesting how a current statistical fact is completely miss-leading.

In the UK currently more people have died from the virus than have recovered.

Of course this is the case as there hasn't been enough time for people to recover but sadly enough time for people to die.   The data is also skewed because the UK are no longer testing for the virus, except for severe and critical cases, so registered active cases are much more severe.  The stats on severe/critical cases will also get skewed in the UK as a result.  It will look like more cases are severe and more people die.

I just hope the media don't go to town on these stats to scare people.
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Offline Nominal Animal

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #355 on: March 16, 2020, 02:13:54 pm »
I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there.
The EMCrit project does note that "Emerging evidence suggests that some patients may respond to COVID-19 with an exuberant “cytokine storm” reaction (with features of bacterial sepsis or hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis)" and that "Clinical markers of this may include elevations of C-reactive protein and ferritin, which appear to track with disease severity and mortality (Ruan 3/3/20)", which to me means cytokine storms are associated, but not systematically in all patients.

As I understand it, these features they mention refer to fever or lowered body temperature, fatigue and confusion, enlarged and/or sensitive lymph nodes, and signs of general inflammation, including rashes.  That means, in my understanding (which is quite limited!), that the situation is not yet on the autoimmune attack stage requiring intensive care, but more like the immune system is not concentrating on the virus properly.  (I can imagine several ways this could happen, the most likely being that white cells cannot tag/identify the virus or virus-infected cells properly.)

If so, reducing the cytokine storm in its initial phase, before intensive care is actually needed due to the severity of the symptoms, sounds like a good idea to me.  From the rumours from Chinese doctors, I understood that in patients where the cytokine storm itself is in its early stages, with intensive care not yet warranted, high doses of ascorbic acid "showed promise".

I could be wrong here, but since taking high doses of vit C in the short term is not dangerous (as it is water soluble), at worst it is a placebo.  At best, it might actually help a little.
 

Online Siwastaja

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #356 on: March 16, 2020, 02:38:15 pm »
But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...

Indeed, hence this isn't the best time for the full-blown survivalist to shine; even a semi-survivalist strategy is enough to do what is necessary, namely slow down the spread so that the healthcare system can deal with it without collapsing.

The time to be a survivalist is when a much more deadly disease spreads, at which point it might be mankind's only hope for avoiding extinction...

Exactly!
 

Offline DrG

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #357 on: March 16, 2020, 02:55:15 pm »
I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there.
The EMCrit project does note that "Emerging evidence suggests that some patients may respond to COVID-19 with an exuberant “cytokine storm” reaction (with features of bacterial sepsis or hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis)" and that "Clinical markers of this may include elevations of C-reactive protein and ferritin, which appear to track with disease severity and mortality (Ruan 3/3/20)", which to me means cytokine storms are associated, but not systematically in all patients.

As I understand it, these features they mention refer to fever or lowered body temperature, fatigue and confusion, enlarged and/or sensitive lymph nodes, and signs of general inflammation, including rashes.  That means, in my understanding (which is quite limited!), that the situation is not yet on the autoimmune attack stage requiring intensive care, but more like the immune system is not concentrating on the virus properly.  (I can imagine several ways this could happen, the most likely being that white cells cannot tag/identify the virus or virus-infected cells properly.)

If so, reducing the cytokine storm in its initial phase, before intensive care is actually needed due to the severity of the symptoms, sounds like a good idea to me.  From the rumours from Chinese doctors, I understood that in patients where the cytokine storm itself is in its early stages, with intensive care not yet warranted, high doses of ascorbic acid "showed promise".

I could be wrong here, but since taking high doses of vit C in the short term is not dangerous (as it is water soluble), at worst it is a placebo.  At best, it might actually help a little.

https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d


See Galit Aler's presentation beginning at slide 42. It is precisely what you are discussing here. There does appear to be a dysregulation of the immune response early on and in some patients. I think that, as suggested in the presentation, this is being targeted for therapy.
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Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #358 on: March 16, 2020, 02:58:24 pm »
I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?

Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species.

Viruses are incredibly specific to their host species. If a host cell doesn't express some cell surface antigen that the virus needs to get into the cell, it won't. If a host cell doesn't have the right variant of some enzyme involved in manufacturing or assembling new virions then the virus won't reproduce.

The response to viruses is also highly variable within species. For most people Epstein-Barr virus causes the disease Mononucleosis/Glandular Fever, but in some people (particularly in Sino-Asian populations) it causes a type of leukaemia.

All it takes for a virus to cause/not cause disease, or be infectious/no infectious can be as little as a single gene variation in the host species.
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Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #359 on: March 16, 2020, 03:03:05 pm »
But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...

That's making the assumption that the infection circulates forever in the general population. It does not, or we'd still all be dropping like flies from the Bubonic Plague of the middle ages. Of course we are not, and we don't have active immunity to the Bubonic Plague either.
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Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #360 on: March 16, 2020, 03:19:39 pm »
I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there.
The EMCrit project does note that "Emerging evidence suggests that some patients may respond to COVID-19 with an exuberant “cytokine storm” reaction (with features of bacterial sepsis or hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis)" and that "Clinical markers of this may include elevations of C-reactive protein and ferritin, which appear to track with disease severity and mortality (Ruan 3/3/20)", which to me means cytokine storms are associated, but not systematically in all patients.

As I understand it, these features they mention refer to fever or lowered body temperature, fatigue and confusion, enlarged and/or sensitive lymph nodes, and signs of general inflammation, including rashes.  That means, in my understanding (which is quite limited!), that the situation is not yet on the autoimmune attack stage requiring intensive care, but more like the immune system is not concentrating on the virus properly.  (I can imagine several ways this could happen, the most likely being that white cells cannot tag/identify the virus or virus-infected cells properly.)

If so, reducing the cytokine storm in its initial phase, before intensive care is actually needed due to the severity of the symptoms, sounds like a good idea to me.  From the rumours from Chinese doctors, I understood that in patients where the cytokine storm itself is in its early stages, with intensive care not yet warranted, high doses of ascorbic acid "showed promise".

I could be wrong here, but since taking high doses of vit C in the short term is not dangerous (as it is water soluble), at worst it is a placebo.  At best, it might actually help a little.

First off, you'll always see some examples of cytokine storms if you look at enough patients. It's a known complication of any serious viral infection for certain patients. People's immune systems vary, and some are more prone to over-reaction than others. Ask anyone with allergies (slightly disingenuous as different mechanisms are in action, but it serves as a simple exemplar).

The vitamin C thing is interesting, and I bet Linus Pauling is smirking in his grave. One of the non-specific immune responses is to release highly reactive free radicals as a means of destroying invaders. This does that, but also causes oxidative damage to host tissue at the same time. Remember that in the case of a viral infection it is our own cells that have been commandeered by viral RNA/DNA that are the enemy. So it is inevitable that both 'good' and 'bad' hosts cells get clobbered by this kind of response. Using a systemic anti-oxidant such as vitamin C may well be an effective method of limiting the undesirable oxidative damage - we probably won't know until this is all done and dusted. As you say, vitamin C has very low toxicity and, while it may yet prove to be another folk remedy, the risk/reward ratio for using it looks pretty good.
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Offline Stray Electron

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #361 on: March 16, 2020, 03:49:03 pm »
I don't think that this link has been posted before - sorry if it has.

2020.03.12 A Coordinated Boston Response to COVID19

https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d

   Good article. Thanks for posting.  :-+
 

Offline donotdespisethesnake

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #362 on: March 16, 2020, 04:03:17 pm »
But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...

The time to be a survivalist is when a much more deadly disease spreads, at which point it might be mankind's only hope for avoiding extinction...

In this case, if you are <50, the best strategy is to get the disease early as possible. You have a low risk of dying, and you get access to medical resources before they are overwhelmed. If you are over 70, might be better to bunker up and wait for a vaccine, but avoiding all contact for maybe months could be quite hard.

Either way, this would be a good practice run for "The Big One". Work out what supplies you need, how long they keep, how often you need to cycle stock etc.

I think the big problem with prepping is that individuals will be very vulnerable. To survive, you will need to be in a group, and in a location that is defensible. So building a network of like minded people, and scouting for good sites is as essential as having a stock of spam and ammo.
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Online edavid

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #363 on: March 16, 2020, 04:04:52 pm »
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

I think the most likely explanation is that dogs don't shed enough virus to cause infection.  That could be pretty hard to measure in the midst of a crisis.

Does anyone know if the PCR tests being commonly done by public health services are quantitative?  How about the antibody tests?  I've read articles that mentioned both viral load and detected/not detected results.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 04:24:18 pm by edavid »
 

Offline DrG

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #364 on: March 16, 2020, 04:14:23 pm »
I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?

Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species.

Viruses are incredibly specific to their host species. If a host cell doesn't express some cell surface antigen that the virus needs to get into the cell, it won't. If a host cell doesn't have the right variant of some enzyme involved in manufacturing or assembling new virions then the virus won't reproduce.

The response to viruses is also highly variable within species. For most people Epstein-Barr virus causes the disease Mononucleosis/Glandular Fever, but in some people (particularly in Sino-Asian populations) it causes a type of leukaemia.

All it takes for a virus to cause/not cause disease, or be infectious/no infectious can be as little as a single gene variation in the host species.

I don't know why you would say that when we have so much well-documented viral zoonoses. Maybe I am just not understanding.

"Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species."

OK, take herpes B for example. There are clearly documented cases of infection to humans after exposure (scratch or bite) to macaques. Indeed, the macaque is barely symptomatic other than shedding...the human, unfortunately can develop encephalitis in a couple of days. The infected human can also infect other humans.

Same virus. same infection albeit dramatically different effects. What am I missing?
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Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #365 on: March 16, 2020, 05:27:08 pm »
I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?

Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species.

Viruses are incredibly specific to their host species. If a host cell doesn't express some cell surface antigen that the virus needs to get into the cell, it won't. If a host cell doesn't have the right variant of some enzyme involved in manufacturing or assembling new virions then the virus won't reproduce.

The response to viruses is also highly variable within species. For most people Epstein-Barr virus causes the disease Mononucleosis/Glandular Fever, but in some people (particularly in Sino-Asian populations) it causes a type of leukaemia.

All it takes for a virus to cause/not cause disease, or be infectious/no infectious can be as little as a single gene variation in the host species.

I don't know why you would say that when we have so much well-documented viral zoonoses. Maybe I am just not understanding.

For a virus to pass from say, birds, to people it needs to be able to infect both. Sometimes this is the case, most often it is not. Sometimes it happens because a strain randomly mutates so that it would infect another species (mutation in viruses happens all the time) and encounters a new species of host at the same time. Most of the time it doesn't encounter the new species and dies out. Crossing species is the exception not the rule. Vets don't catch Parvo from dogs, vets don't get immune deficiency by catching FIV from cats.

Viral zoonoses are comparatively rare. Bacteria zoonoses are not (e.g. Psittacosis). Bacteria and viruses are worlds apart, viruses need a fully working cell that is compatible with their biochemistry to reproduce, bacteria just generally need warmth, wet and food. You can grow a bacteria on an agar plate, viruses require tissue culture in a compatible species cells. Look at all the diseases that are commonly transmitted between humans and other animals - the vast majority are bacterial or parasitic. The rare viral ones typically require very specific hosts on both sides.

Some viruses only require very evolutionarily primitive cell biology, using cell biology that is common to whole sections of the evolutionary tree. Rabies is one - it'll infect most mammals -  but it's still limited in what it can infect, you won't find a lizard with rabies.

Quote
"Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species."

OK, take herpes B for example. There are clearly documented cases of infection to humans after exposure (scratch or bite) to macaques. Indeed, the macaque is barely symptomatic other than shedding...the human, unfortunately can develop encephalitis in a couple of days. The infected human can also infect other humans.

Same virus. same infection albeit dramatically different effects. What am I missing?

A macaque is, like you and me, a primate. There's a much smaller difference between species of primate than there is between primates and dogs.

Look at it another way. The SARS-Covid-2 virus has a genome with about 30,000 base pairs, that means (crudely) it can only code 10,000 amino acid sequences, quite a few of which are overhead. Compare that to a computer virus with 30,000 bytes assembler instructions and 10,000 actual instructions. That little genetic material has to code for the structure of the virus, how it gets into a host cell, how it gets that host cell to manufacture more virions and so on. The part that says "how to get into a cell to reproduce" has to have a mechanism for doing so, usually this is by 'recognising' a surface protein on the cell and using that to leverage the cell's active transport mechanisms to get into the interior of the cell. If that protein isn't there, or it's a slightly different shape because it's the dog variant rather than the human variant, then the virion never gets to deliver its genetic payload to the cell, so no infection happens.

Lets go back to the computer analogy. If part of that 30,000 instructions is "how to infect a computer" and the virus was targetting Windows then it would fail to infect MacOS because MacOS doesn't expose the same interfaces on the outside that Windows does. They're both x86 operating systems so they have similar mechanisms for, say, networking but the exact details of the networking interfaces of Windows that might allow a virus to get its payload through are different on MacOS and so the virus fails to 'infect' its host.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 05:40:42 pm by Cerebus »
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Offline maginnovision

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #366 on: March 16, 2020, 05:39:40 pm »
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.
 

Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #367 on: March 16, 2020, 05:46:38 pm »
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.

From that article:
Quote
University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research director Professor David Paterson told news.com.au today they have seen two drugs used to treat other conditions wipe out the virus in test tubes.

In vitro and in vivo are two very different things. It could easily fall at the first hurdle. Just because the drugs work in a test tube is no guarantee that they will have any effect in a real living host. The good news is that they are both active, approved drugs with known safety profiles - it would seem there is no significant barrier to going ahead with a clinical trial with extreme speed. Who knows, they may get lucky.

Oh, and the named one of the two drugs, chloroquine, is as cheap as chips (unless you're in the US where all drugs cost many more times more than they do in the rest of the world).
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 05:48:42 pm by Cerebus »
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Offline rgarito

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #368 on: March 16, 2020, 05:47:34 pm »
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

I think the most likely explanation is that dogs don't shed enough virus to cause infection.  That could be pretty hard to measure in the midst of a crisis.

Does anyone know if the PCR tests being commonly done by public health services are quantitative?  How about the antibody tests?  I've read articles that mentioned both viral load and detected/not detected results.

At least in the USA, the PCR tests are pass/fail tests.  The test basically slices and dices the sample RNA, making copies each time, matching on 3 different sample patterns found in the virus.  Each one is tagged with a dye which is then measured (after each copy iteration).  This will generate a curve of the fluorescence at a specific wavelength.  They plot this on a graph and if all 3 different dye tags cross a specific threshold within a specific # of replications, its a positive test.
 

Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #369 on: March 16, 2020, 05:53:24 pm »
At least in the USA, the PCR tests are pass/fail tests.  The test basically slices and dices the sample RNA, making copies each time, matching on 3 different sample patterns found in the virus.  Each one is tagged with a dye which is then measured (after each copy iteration).  This will generate a curve of the fluorescence at a specific wavelength.  They plot this on a graph and if all 3 different dye tags cross a specific threshold within a specific # of replications, its a positive test.

Or to put it in terms that most people will be familiar with it's a "DNA fingerprint" (really an RNA fingerprint). It'll tell you the virus is there, but not in what quantity. The PCR bit is Polymerase Chain Reaction and refers to amplifying the RNA found into a detectable quantity by making very many copies of it.
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Offline Stray Electron

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #370 on: March 16, 2020, 06:01:20 pm »
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.


   Read about the James Cai case here https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-previously-healthy-clinician-now-critically-ill-with-covid-19.htmland also look at the follow up.  James was treated with the same two drugs and he credits them and the Chinese researchers who recommended them with saving his life. For the ones of you that continue to think that this virus is no worse than the annual flu virus, James was a young healthy man with no medical conditions but Corona virus almost killed him.
 

Offline maginnovision

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #371 on: March 16, 2020, 06:18:29 pm »
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.


   Read about the James Cai case here https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-previously-healthy-clinician-now-critically-ill-with-covid-19.htmland also look at the follow up.  James was treated with the same two drugs and he credits them and the Chinese researchers who recommended them with saving his life. For the ones of you that continue to think that this virus is no worse than the annual flu virus, James was a young healthy man with no medical conditions but Corona virus almost killed him.

I've seen stories from other doctors who were telling people to be no more afraid of it than the flu and then they started dealing with it and changed their minds. They didn't even have to get it themselves.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.

From that article:
Quote
University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research director Professor David Paterson told news.com.au today they have seen two drugs used to treat other conditions wipe out the virus in test tubes.

In vitro and in vivo are two very different things. It could easily fall at the first hurdle. Just because the drugs work in a test tube is no guarantee that they will have any effect in a real living host. The good news is that they are both active, approved drugs with known safety profiles - it would seem there is no significant barrier to going ahead with a clinical trial with extreme speed. Who knows, they may get lucky.

Oh, and the named one of the two drugs, chloroquine, is as cheap as chips (unless you're in the US where all drugs cost many more times more than they do in the rest of the world).

Yea, that's why they want to start a trial. It'd be better to have a vaccine but this could be a good intermediate step. The reason I don't think it'll be cheap has nothing to do with current costs but costs if they need to ramp up production. I haven't researched the drugs uses outside of HIV(other than one being an anti viral) but if they're not used widely otherwise you'd be supply constrained so the price would go up with those who have the money likely being able to get it first. Especially with this being all over the world.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 06:20:15 pm by maginnovision »
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #372 on: March 16, 2020, 06:49:48 pm »
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.
The strategy is to isolate as much as possible the elderlyand vulnerable till its over. The rest of the population should over time get the virus in a natural way, so they get immune after they recovered so they don't pose a thread anymore after a certain period of time.
 

Offline vad

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #373 on: March 16, 2020, 06:54:06 pm »
In this case, if you are <50, the best strategy is to get the disease early as possible. You have a low risk of dying, and you get access to medical resources before they are overwhelmed.
This is not your normal queue for toilet paper, where whoever first reaches the aisle is rewarded with truckload of TP, while the others are rewarded with empty shelves.
 

Online Siwastaja

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #374 on: March 16, 2020, 06:57:38 pm »
In this case, if you are <50, the best strategy is to get the disease early as possible. You have a low risk of dying, and you get access to medical resources before they are overwhelmed.

Actuall, this is a good strategy to overwhelm medical resources and further reduce the probability of a favourable outcome for the elders.
Still, the best strategy if your philosophy is "screw everybody else, I am the only one who counts".

Yes, and this is a good textbook example of a case where a state-held system for controlled violence, administred by the police and military, is used for an important purpose, to force such people to take others into consideration.
 


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