I will be shocked if in 10 years 50% of new cars sold are pure BEVs. In fact, I’ll take that bet, specifically for US new car sales.
I'll take that bet too, and I'm as pro-EV as they come.
The reality has already hit the EV industry head on. Batteries have not plummeted in price like predicted, even with all the Gigafactory hype, and I don't see this changing much this decade. Certainly not by the half order of magnitude drop in price required, not to mention production capability.
"plummeted in price like predicted"
Pure nonsense. Who predicted that? This is like the climate change denialists who tout the claims of the "world ending" in 10 years. No one who is credible has said that.
If you believe in basic math, you will be able to take the numbers for the last several years and see the >50% annual growth in sales. Project that forward and you will see that in 10 years nearly all new cars sold will be BEVs.
In 2018, literally every car company in the world started scrambling to produce new BEV models after seeing the success of the Tesla model 3. A car that continues to have a year long order backlog even after raising the introductory price from the $30s to the $40s. The Ford and other offerings have similar backlogs.
The only possible monkey wrench I see is the possibility of raw materials, such as lithium, limiting production rates. I expect most BEV companies are working on this hard. I believe GM has said they have it covered until 2025, but that's only three years, so I'm a bit worried.
It may turn out that with lithium, "We're gonna need a bigger boat!"