EV-based road transportation is not viable

[rstofer]

I probably shouldn't have mentioned 2030 as it's not really relevant to the points I'm trying to make.

I can't afford a usable electric car. I can barely afford to run my existing car. My daily cost me £1250 a little over 2 years ago, and that's the sort of budget I'm likely to be limited to when I need to get another. A new car of any description is simply out of the question, and would be for anyone else on the tools here. Good luck finding an EV for that money. As a council worker, I'm public sector, and like much of the public sector workforce, over the last 12 years or so, I've had a 25-30% real-terms pay cut. Yes, I have seen the figures; it's not an exaggeration.

The infrastructure isn't there. To get there, is going to be very expensive, and very disruptive (lots of roadworks, everywhere). Charging points in lamp-posts is a joke; if all of them get used at once, hell if even a significant proportion get used at once, it'll trip the local supply. Most of those lights are running on a supply that was designed to power 400W (at most, and usually a lot less) lamps, not 10kW chargers, and even though most have been "upgraded" to LED (another contentious issue, for a different thread), the spare capacity is either quite small, or not there at all, as they've been altered to account for lower power.

The reality is that the infrastructure in this country is a long way from being able to support a 100% EV transport system, and all I'm seeing (at least in terms of local city/town/village infrastructure) to move us in that direction is baby steps at best.

Bundle up all of the infrastructure problems and leave them to capitalists.  Provide some incentive for buying EVs (tax rebate, no highway tax, lower maintenance costs, lower operating costs) and the market will self-adjust.  It always does.

I have been using an EV for about 9 years and it has worked out fine.  I'm retired so my 125 mile commute (round trip) is no longer a factor.  The small battery charger that comes with the vehicle has always been adequate.  When I had solar on my other house, my operating costs for the EV were around $0.05/mile.

Will the EV work in every situation? No, of course not.  But there are a lot of people who have a vehicle for 5 years and only have 10k miles.  They use the vehicle for grocery shopping and trips to the mall (fewer due to COVID) and rely on Amazon for everything else.

The big planned maintenance item for an EV is rotating the tires and checking the windshield wiper solution.  Sometimes it might be useful to replace the internal air filter.  That's it!  Of particular importance:  No smog test!

Tax the hell out of ICE vehicles and see what happens!

[Marco]

H2 for cars can't take off on itself, the bootstrap costs are too huge. If trucking first carries the burden of jumpstarting the mass production of fuel cells and a widespread LH2 refueling network, then some consumer cars might start piggybacking off trucking infrastructure.

LH2 will require a change of mindset due to boil off, but I could see some consumer light truck manufacturers taking the dive once the infrastructure is in place any way. Maybe you could have a small battery and a LH2 tank, with the LH2 boil off recharging the battery so you always have some power to get to the fuel station?

[rstofer]

I don't know about all EVs but I can tell you my first, a 2014 Chevy Spark EV, was sporty.  With over 400 ft-lbs of torque, it was solidly in the muscle car class.  Hint:  Never drag race while driving an ICE against an EV.  True story:  Chevy downgraded the performance in 2015 (to 327 ft-lbs) - they had built a high performance car and it was bought by low performance drivers.  Some people didn't know how to get up on the wheel and drive!

My current Chevy Bolt has a 'Sporting Mode' where performance gets outrageous.  Shut down the traction control and hang on, things are going to get exciting!  And it only has 266 ft-lbs of torque.

Now they're talking about 800+ horsepower for a performance EV.  That must be awesome!  The boss of Dodge was showing off a prototype of a new EV Charger that had more horsepower than any ICE version ever produced.  I KNOW how fast the early '70s Charger would run with a 440 Magnum engine (slightly modified) and that won't hold a candle to the new EV version.

Speed is good but torque is more fun!  What an awesome time to be young!

I should have kept the Spark EV...

[rstofer]

Here's a UK example of the capitalism I mentioned above:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1722259/electric-vehicle-smart-charging-plan-government-ofgem-drivers-save-1000-year

The idea is to charge vehicles when utility electric rates could be low (daylight and/or wind is available) and use the vehicle batteries to power a residence (or whatever) when the cost of utility electric is high.  Optimize as required.

Tesla builds a Power Wall battery set to go along with their solar panels

https://www.tesla.com/solarpanels
https://www.tesla.com/solarroof

The solar roof approach is much more pleasing than the solar panels.

Public utilities need to rethink their business models.

[nctnico]

The solar roof approach is much more pleasing than the solar panels.

Until you realise that such solar panels are less effective at cooling themselves and thus have a lower performance.

Tesla's powerwall is horribly expensive. Like 40 to 50 eurocents per kWh. If you value your money, look somewhere else for battery storage. Using a BEVs battery as grid storage is the worst idea ever. It is like using your ICE car as a generator. Or a battery to crank an engine as a traction battery. It is not build for such a purpose and will cause excessive wear / be more expensive. Only a total idiot would allow using a BEV for grid storage so the power company can wear out a battery for free. The power company would need to pay you ball park 50 to 60 eurocents per kWh to make using a BEV for grid storage worthwhile. They'll need to charge that amount to somebody else + transport costs (another 8 to 15 cents per kWh) + their own profit margin on top to make that happen.

[djsb]

I want one of these

https://aptera.us/

It's designed with efficiency in mind and does 10 miles per KW.

I'll make do with my Ebike until then. I can do 100 miles on my 1KW of batteries with pedal assist.

[MadScientist]

Many respected auto industry figures think Toyota’s strategy is wrong anyway

“ onda’s CEO, Toshihiro Mibe, believes Toyota should stop pursuing hydrogen combustion, hinting that it should perhaps focus on pure-EVs. The Honda boss says his company researched it until around a decade ago as a means of automotive propulsion, but found that it was not feasible for use in cars.”

It’s the Betamax of next gen cars

[mikeselectricstuff]

Using a BEVs battery as grid storage is the worst idea ever. It is like using your ICE car as a generator. Or a battery to crank an engine as a traction battery. It is not build for such a purpose and will cause excessive wear / be more expensive. Only a total idiot would allow using a BEV for grid storage so the power company can wear out a battery for free.

It isn't for free - they pay for the usage, you're effectively renting them capacity.
The charge/discharge rates involved are very low compared to normal driving and DC charging, so heating is minimal, and UK real-world trials have shown negligible  degredation. Lithium Ion batteries don't like sitting at high SoC for long periods, so gentle cycling can at least partially offset this.

[Marco]

hydrogen combustion

Mirai uses fuel cells though?

[MadScientist]

V2G is in its Infancy with only a few trials being run

V2H looks like being a better bet why buy a storage battery wren one is sitting idle in the drive !!

In general all this stuff is very niche and edge case it’s far far from mainstream  nor likely to be

I attended a lecture by a noteworthy US professor on V2G none of the financial numbers made any sense 

Hence I think it’s a solution looking for a problem.

[james_s]

Tax the hell out of ICE vehicles and see what happens!

Despite a lot of lip service about being "green", my state does exactly the opposite and there is a $150 annual EV tax. On top of that, the price of the license tabs is determined by the value of the car, which is assessed using a very optimistic model developed for ICE cars, so EVs in general are vastly overvalued and have very expensive annual licensing fees. It's totally backwards.

I see no reason to tax the hell out of either one, the market is already shifting to EV due to much lower operating costs. Just let the free(ish) market do its thing, it's working.

[james_s]

Using a BEVs battery as grid storage is the worst idea ever. It is like using your ICE car as a generator. Or a battery to crank an engine as a traction battery. It is not build for such a purpose and will cause excessive wear / be more expensive.

I used to do exactly that back before I had a portable inverter generator. I had a 1.5kW inverter that I would connect to the battery in my car and idle it in the driveway to provide emergency power. The fuel consumption was modest and wear on the car negligible since it was only done during power outages when I needed heat and to keep the refrigerator cold. I don't think I'd use an EV battery for grid storage though unless it was similarly an emergency, the battery is the one component of the car that is most likely to wear out and the most expensive one to replace.

[rstofer]

The solar roof approach is much more pleasing than the solar panels.

Until you realise that such solar panels are less effective at cooling themselves and thus have
Tesla's powerwall is horribly expensive. Like 40 to 50 eurocents per kWh. If you value ya lower performance.

All true TODAY...  Just wait, things will change.  Battery technology will improve and things that look unworkable today will be commonplace tomorrow.

Every time there is a stiff breeze, we lose power.  We've had 4 outages ranging from 2 to 36 hours this winter alone.  We're thinking of a generator.  Maybe a Power Wall doesn't look so bad as a substitute for an expensive generator.  Sure, it's more costly but there isn't the 'add fuel in a downpour' to deal with.

I haven't priced any of the alternatives.

[james_s]

I want one of these

https://aptera.us/

It's designed with efficiency in mind and does 10 miles per KW.

I'll make do with my Ebike until then. I can do 100 miles on my 1KW of batteries with pedal assist.

That looks frightening. Having been rear ended multiple times by fullsized cars and one time by a semi truck (lorry) that was travelling at near highway speed when it hit the car behind me while we were stopped,  very small lightweight cars make me nervous. I notice they've made it 3-wheeled so it is legally considered a motorcycle and exempt from all of the car safety regulations.

That does illustrate a part of that law that I think is totally silly. There should be an exempt class of 4 wheeled vehicles so they don't have to exploit that loophole.

[nctnico]

hydrogen combustion

Mirai uses fuel cells though?

Yes. But there are also some hydrogen ICE vehicles planned. In the end it all comes down to cost. Problem with burning hydrogen in an ICE is that it will likely cause NOx to form.

[MadScientist]

Tax the hell out of ICE vehicles and see what happens!

Despite a lot of lip service about being "green", my state does exactly the opposite and there is a $150 annual EV tax. On top of that, the price of the license tabs is determined by the value of the car, which is assessed using a very optimistic model developed for ICE cars, so EVs in general are vastly overvalued and have very expensive annual licensing fees. It's totally backwards.

I see no reason to tax the hell out of either one, the market is already shifting to EV due to much lower operating costs. Just let the free(ish) market do its thing, it's working.

Taxation is often used to change behaviour no different here with EV. Encourage changeovers via time limited tax incentives isnt a bad idea no more then I can claim all tax back on buying a bicycle ( cycle to work scheme )

Petrol cars have benefitted fro hidden subsidies for years

[nctnico]

The big planned maintenance item for an EV is rotating the tires and checking the windshield wiper solution.

Tires and suspension are the biggest maintenance cost items on any car. Over the course of 260k km I spend close 5k euro on suspension parts and tires. But the problem is that these aren't big ticket items except for doing the shock absorbers. Money spend on timing belt, clutch, water pump and oil are just noise in comparison. That BEVs are cheaper to run is an outright myth. They are heavier so have more wear on the suspension and need more expensive tires.

Tax the hell out of ICE vehicles and see what happens!

That has been tried in the NL for decades and it doesn't work. It just drives inflation up. There are more cars on the road every year.

[james_s]

Heres hoping that electricity companies as they are now will someday go extinct.

I was a huge fan of Reamped. They cut out the cost of call centers and physical presence and returned the savings onto the customer. It was successful until electricity prices skyrocketed last year.

I have no real complaints about electric companies as they are now in my area. There's only one electric utility in a region here so you don't have to choose between multiple companies to work with. The service is pretty reliable and the price has only increased modestly in the past decade or so, going from 8c to 10c/kWh.

[themadhippy]

looks like EV's could be phase out  in wyoming if these idiots get there way
https://wyoleg.gov/Legislation/2023/SJ0004

[tom66]

looks like EV's could be phase out  in wyoming if these idiots get there way
https://wyoleg.gov/Legislation/2023/SJ0004

Straight out of the lobbyists playbook that bill!  Hahaha...

Oil and gas creates jobs... er, yeah, so does electricity production.

EV's can't be charged on highways... why is that a reason to ban them? (I mean, they clearly can, too, but even if they couldn't, let the consumer decide.)

Critical minerals can't be recycled... oh and you can totally recycle gasoline? 

EV charging would increase load on the grid (despite us saying there's never going to be enough chargers) ... sounds like a job creator to me?

EV proliferation will be detrimential to gas vehicles... how, exactly?  They aren't going around and deflating the tyres of gas vehicles at night.

 

[nctnico]

looks like EV's could be phase out  in wyoming if these idiots get there way
https://wyoleg.gov/Legislation/2023/SJ0004

Makes sense. Looks like the perfect place for large scale solar for hydrogen production  It seems they got that idea by themselves as well already. 

[james_s]

Taxation is often used to change behaviour no different here with EV. Encourage changeovers via time limited tax incentives isnt a bad idea no more then I can claim all tax back on buying a bicycle ( cycle to work scheme )

Petrol cars have benefitted fro hidden subsidies for years

Uh, well, except they're doing exactly the opposite and taxing the EVs. The reasoning is because they don't pay the fuel tax that is supposed to maintain the roads, but if we're going to try to switch people to EV we're going to need something besides a fuel tax.

[james_s]

looks like EV's could be phase out  in wyoming if these idiots get there way
https://wyoleg.gov/Legislation/2023/SJ0004

That's just silly political games in response to other legislation trying to phase out gas cars. If people just left it alone and let the market decide rather than trying to force things this sort of ridiculousness wouldn't happen.

I did laugh at the name though, Senator Boner 

[MadScientist]

Taxation is often used to change behaviour no different here with EV. Encourage changeovers via time limited tax incentives isnt a bad idea no more then I can claim all tax back on buying a bicycle ( cycle to work scheme )

Petrol cars have benefitted fro hidden subsidies for years

Uh, well, except they're doing exactly the opposite and taxing the EVs. The reasoning is because they don't pay the fuel tax that is supposed to maintain the roads, but if we're going to try to switch people to EV we're going to need something besides a fuel tax.

An occasional misinformed  country is doing that today but most advanced countries are subsiding BEVs to a lesser or greater extent. Ultimately motoring whether Bev or. Not will be taxed there is no future where private transport is getting cheaper !!! ( sadly )

[james_s]

An occasional misinformed  country is doing that today but most advanced countries are subsiding BEVs to a lesser or greater extent. Ultimately motoring whether Bev or. Not will be taxed there is no future where private transport is getting cheaper !!! ( sadly )

Well, not quite, it's a specific state, not a country. It's just ironic that it's one of the states that talks the most about being "green" and progressive that is taxing EVs, not one of the conservative states.