Author Topic: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...  (Read 71118 times)

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Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #400 on: January 01, 2019, 10:29:58 pm »
The problem is that there is no golden rule here. It depends on manufacturer and cell type. This information is only available under an NDA. However Toyota and Tesla have shown that with the right care a Li-ion cell can last very long.
It doesn't surprise me that the cells in their applications are cooled, which supports the notions that temperature is a significant factor in degradation.
It is. Charging temperature for Li-ion is usually between 0 and 30 degrees C. An EV with active temperature control in the battery pack is likely to heat or cool the batteries before charging them.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Kleinstein

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #401 on: January 01, 2019, 10:59:21 pm »
It was my impression that the 2000 C is a "magic" stop if you loose coolant, due to thermal broadening of the neutron spectrum. It would have to be 4000 C to be a danger to the carbide? That is why they are considered passively safe.

"There was a pebble bed reactor accident at Hamm-Uentrop West Germany nine days after the Chernobyl accident. On May 4 1986, a pebble became lodged in a feeder tube. Operators subsequently caused damage to the fuel during attempts to free the pebble. The West German government closed down the research program because they found the reactor design unsafe." Sounds like they shut it down due to panic after the Chernobyl accident. The problem doesn't sound like it has to do with the reactor design in general but rather that that specific reactor had under dimensioned feeder tubes.

I don't really understand why people don't like the battery swap solution, wouldn't prevent people from charging at home at the same time. The key social benefit would be that you can charge batteries during peak production. For the individual the benefit is that you can fill up the tank in a few minutes compared to the 20 or so hours you need for a full charge now (which means you solve the range problem). You also spread out the cost of a new battery so that people doesn't have to save up for a large investment in a new battery.
The THTR is/was at  Hamm-Uentrop. After the incident they found damage to the pressure vessel made from reinforced concrete, probably due to excessive temperatures. There were several reasons to shut down the reactor, which was a prototype to show a commercial size pebble bed reactor. One was the damage  to the reactor. Other where high costs (it was not economical - not a surprise for a prototype),  the lack of further fuel supply (they needed special highly enriched Uranium and also the difficulty getting rid of the waste - the reprocessing planed was never started for cost and possible other reasons. So at least 3 good reasons to shut it down, even without an accident in Russia. The higher than expected friction and wear on the fuel was a more general problem with the pebble bed design.

There is some thermal self limiting of the fission reaction somewhere lower maybe 1000 C (it depends on the setting of the rood used for regulation and the fuel used) for the average temperature. However there would be still the decay heat from fission products and new breed fuel to decay. This heat is sufficient to raise the temperature even further even well above 2000 C. AFAIK the 2000 C was the design value for the fuel should withstand, but experience showed problems (e.g. emission of fission products) already earlier. So The safe limit would have to be lower. At somewhere around 3000 C it would expect start of catastrophic damage with softening / melting of the fuel.


For the battery swap solution, one problem is how to charge wear and tear of the battery. There is not that much experience. Another problem is that it would need a kind of standard type of battery used in different cars. This would also add weight and be less flexible in the form factor. One may choose to have something like 1 pack in a small car, 2 in a large one and maybe 4 in a bus - so some flexibility, but still limed. Also once a standard is set this would be set at a time when the technology is still evolving.  Also having enough of the full battery packs at the right station could be a problem. So there could be still the problem of coming to the station and still need to wait for charging.  AFIAK handling the batteries also would need special training for electrical safety. Some 300 V or more DC are not fun, as an arc would stay on and fuses are tricky.
 

Online MarcoTopic starter

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #402 on: January 01, 2019, 11:40:56 pm »
Pebbles have always seemed like a silly idea to me, they will crack and then you just have an unholy mess for no good reason.
 

Offline apis

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #403 on: January 02, 2019, 12:52:06 am »
I agree that breaking the pebbles seems messy. They are not supposed to break, of course, and people seem to think there was some design flaw with the HTR-300 that caused the problems. But I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert on pebble bed reactors, only reading up on it now.

Still, they seem to like the idea in the US. China is building a 250 MW modular reactor (HTR-PM) after 18 years of running a 10 MW pilot reactor (HTR-10). Apparently they intend to use it to produce cheap hydrogen for fuel-cell vehicles. According to Wikipedia in 1992 there was even plans for a HTR-300 successor in Germany, called HTR-500 that would generate 500 MW electricity. So some people still seem to think it's a good idea.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/HTR-PM-steam-generator-passes-pressure-tests
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 02:09:07 am by apis »
 

Offline Kilrah

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #404 on: January 02, 2019, 07:30:45 am »
According to research I've seen lithium batteries have a very good shelf-life, but you have to treat them the right way.

Well yes, and that "right way" is exactly NOT the one you'd use it as in that scenario...

For max shelf life you should be storing the battery at about 60% state of charge, the higher the state of charge the faster the degradation. But the whole point of having a 2nd battery you could swap in is precisely to have it fully charged and ready to go, aka where it degrades the fastest.

 

Offline IanMacdonald

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #405 on: January 02, 2019, 07:41:41 am »
A fundamental issue with solid fuel fission reactors is that some fission products are gases. These create pressure which swells and cracks the fuel. Eventually it loses structural integrity. I could see this being a big problem with pebbles. The sensible approach is liquid fuel since it eliminates this issue.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #406 on: January 02, 2019, 01:32:20 pm »
According to research I've seen lithium batteries have a very good shelf-life, but you have to treat them the right way.
Well yes, and that "right way" is exactly NOT the one you'd use it as in that scenario...

For max shelf life you should be storing the battery at about 60% state of charge, the higher the state of charge the faster the degradation. But the whole point of having a 2nd battery you could swap in is precisely to have it fully charged and ready to go, aka where it degrades the fastest.
AFAIK batteries in EVs are never charged to 100%. More likely in the 80% to 90% ballpark to make them last long. This also gives some headroom for regenerative breaking if the trip starts downhill. The same goes for discharging.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 
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Offline Kleinstein

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #407 on: January 02, 2019, 03:22:11 pm »
A fundamental issue with solid fuel fission reactors is that some fission products are gases. These create pressure which swells and cracks the fuel. Eventually it loses structural integrity. I could see this being a big problem with pebbles. The sensible approach is liquid fuel since it eliminates this issue.

Gaseous fission products are problem, however liquid fuel also have problems: one is that not all fission products will stay soluble and this can cause a not well controlled deposition somewhere in the system. The fuel elements are also the first layer of containment for the fission products. Finally solid fuel can be different composition and age at different places in the reactor - this gives a lot of extra freedom in design, that is lost in a liquid system. So there are also quite some downsides to a liquid fuel.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #408 on: January 02, 2019, 03:32:35 pm »
Well yes, and that "right way" is exactly NOT the one you'd use it as in that scenario...

For max shelf life you should be storing the battery at about 60% state of charge, the higher the state of charge the faster the degradation. But the whole point of having a 2nd battery you could swap in is precisely to have it fully charged and ready to go, aka where it degrades the fastest.
I'd still be interested in number quantifying this, as it's be good to see whether the impact is big enough to cause considerable wear compared to the successive batteries scenario.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #409 on: January 02, 2019, 03:51:29 pm »
AFAIK batteries in EVs are never charged to 100%. More likely in the 80% to 90% ballpark to make them last long. This also gives some headroom for regenerative breaking if the trip starts downhill. The same goes for discharging.
Ion chemistry batteries in general are never fully charged. Whatever counts as fully charged is decided upon by whoever engineers the battery or battery pack. The more energy you stuff in the less life you'll get out of the battery, so there's a trade-off to be made. Cheaper or very portable products tend to charge the battery up to rather high voltages, whereas more long lasting products tend to be more conservative.
 

Offline apis

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #410 on: January 02, 2019, 03:57:00 pm »
Some newer laptops even have settings in BIOS that lets you configure that now.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #411 on: January 02, 2019, 05:38:36 pm »
If you just produce solar in Sahara, for example, and export that north to Europe, Europe wouldn't need coal during the day: voilĂ , coal is reduced by nearly 50%.

Examples of some underwater power cables
Baltic cable: 250 kilometres with a maximum transmission power of 600 megawatts
Basslink: 370 km 500 MW

Sahara to "North of Europe" is 10 times that distance. You'll lose so much as to make the whole point moot. Not to mention that bringing 600MW up there would be negligible.

My country is half the way, small, and from the numbers I can Google needs about 17TW. So your 600MW cable only covers a negligible 3.5%, and it runs 250km instead of the 1500 required.

Covering a minimally significant portion (say 10%?) of that geographical region would need would probably involve carrying 1000TW over an average of 1500km or so...
One solution is to convert the electricity to Hydrogen and then ship it to wherever it needs to go. The transportation infrastructure and storage are definitely cheaper.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online tggzzz

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #412 on: January 02, 2019, 05:58:49 pm »
Some newer laptops even have settings in BIOS that lets you configure that now.

I have a 2011 Samsung netbook where the bios settings can limit the battery charge to 80%. It is still on its first battery :)
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
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Offline Kjelt

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #413 on: January 02, 2019, 06:08:09 pm »
One solution is to convert the electricity to Hydrogen and then ship it to wherever it needs to go. The transportation infrastructure and storage are definitely cheaper.
I thought the companies at the moment generate hydrogen on the location they sell it because transportation of large volumes is still dangerous or economic infeasible?

Just out of the box brainstorming we need new energy transportation ways. How about sunfloweroil, heat it in the sahara to 140C pump it in isolated pipelines to the different energyplants where they boil water for driving the generators and the retour pipeline return the cooled down oil.
If we ever get a leak it is bio degradable.
Anyway we need new solutions.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #414 on: January 02, 2019, 06:21:08 pm »
One solution is to convert the electricity to Hydrogen and then ship it to wherever it needs to go. The transportation infrastructure and storage are definitely cheaper.
I thought the companies at the moment generate hydrogen on the location they sell it because transportation of large volumes is still dangerous or economic infeasible?
The first hit on Google says transporting Hydrogen is cheap & easy. I don't see the problem either. Hydrogen is a gas which is compressable into a liquid. The biggest problem is that Hydrogen atoms are very small so they tend to leak away easely.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Kleinstein

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #415 on: January 02, 2019, 07:20:42 pm »
One solution is to convert the electricity to Hydrogen and then ship it to wherever it needs to go. The transportation infrastructure and storage are definitely cheaper.
I thought the companies at the moment generate hydrogen on the location they sell it because transportation of large volumes is still dangerous or economic infeasible?
The first hit on Google says transporting Hydrogen is cheap & easy. I don't see the problem either. Hydrogen is a gas which is compressable into a liquid. The biggest problem is that Hydrogen atoms are very small so they tend to leak away easely.

To liquefy hydrogen it takes low temperatures. The critical point is at some 33 K, so no liquid above that. Cooling hydrogen is possible though not practical for transport, maybe for storage despite of quite some loss. Normal transport as a compressed gas is possible - it's not that different from natural gas in many aspects. There is an additional danger because ignition is easier, but there is also the advantage that leaking hydrogen goes up and burn with little radiation.

The conversion electricity - hydrogen - electricity still has quite some loss. So I don't consider it good just for transport, more like an option for long term (e.g .> 100 days) storage. It's just easier to move the energy use to where the power is.
 

Offline apis

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #416 on: January 02, 2019, 07:31:41 pm »
It leaks and gets into cracks and even diffuse into other materials which causes embrittlement. It's also burns or in the right air mix explodes quite dramatically. Running cars on hydrogen sounds tricky to me, but maybe it would not be so bad if it's only handled by professionals, transported in proper containers with ships, rail and pipeline to be burnt by turbines at location. Hydrogen in the atmosphere rises until it is eventually blown away from earth by the solar wind.

The conversion electricity - hydrogen - electricity still has quite some loss.
You could always build more solar panels, if they are cheap enough, sunlight is free at least.

It's claimed that it's more efficient to use thermochemical processes to produce hydrogen, so maybe you could use solar towers for that. I'm not sure how well they perform, There is one in Spain iirc.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 07:52:56 pm by apis »
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #417 on: January 02, 2019, 07:37:22 pm »
Hydrogen is also good to run cars from. In Germany I noticed a lot of Hydrogen filling stations are popping up and lots of investments are going on. In the end it doesn't matter how efficient something is but how expensive. There is a point of optimal cost somewhere. However the most efficient solution is likely not the cheapest.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline apis

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #418 on: January 02, 2019, 08:08:39 pm »
There's been a lot of talk about hydrogen EVs using fuel cells.
-----
One study claims it's very inefficient to use hydrogen as an energy carrier, only 25% "well to wheel", i.e. from production to end usage, that seems to imply you can have very large transmission losses in the power grid before hydrogen becomes cheaper.
https://phys.org/news/2006-12-hydrogen-economy-doesnt.html
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 08:41:47 pm by apis »
 

Offline Kleinstein

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #419 on: January 02, 2019, 08:16:12 pm »
It leaks and gets into cracks and even diffuse into other materials which causes embrittlement. It's also burns or in the right air mix explodes quite dramatically. Running cars on hydrogen sounds tricky to me, but maybe it would not be so bad if it's only handled by professionals, transported in proper containers with ships, rail and pipeline to be burnt by turbines at location.

The conversion electricity - hydrogen - electricity still has quite some loss.
You could always build more solar panels, if they are cheap enough, sunlight is free at least.

It's claimed that it's more efficient to use thermochemical processes to produce hydrogen, so maybe you could use solar towers for that. I'm not sure how well they perform, There is one in Spain iirc.

Burning hydrogen is in many respects less critical than burning petrol or natural gas. The flame tends to go up in the air and very little of the energy is coming back from radiation. One could stand just a few feet away from a 100 kW hydrogen flame. With natural gas in contrast the radiation would cause severe burns. The danger with a hydrogen flame is more that one does not see and feel it very well before touching it.

Thermal generation of hydrogen takes high temperatures and this is not that efficient with solar power. So I am not sure it would be so much more efficient.

Especially for storage in something like cars, there is hydrogen storage in hydride form. So a suitable solid dissolves the hydrogen and releases it after moderate temperature heating. It's kind of half a Ni-hydride battery.  It still heavy but could be better than battery.

Currently PV energy is still not that cheap. So efficiency does matter if it comes to storage for more than energy that is really excess and thus currently essentially for free.  For long time storage, like seasonal I would not worry so much about efficiency. But for the short time scale like day to night, the efficiency can be an important factor, as the energy used would not be just excess. It finally is about the price, but efficiency is also part of the price.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #420 on: January 02, 2019, 08:32:39 pm »
There's been a lot of talk about hydrogen EVs using fuel cells.

One study claims it's very inefficient, only 25% "well to wheel", that seems to imply you can have very large transmission losses in the power grid before using hydrogen becomes cheaper.
https://phys.org/news/2006-12-hydrogen-economy-doesnt.html
That article is nearly 15 years old. Not relevant.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline apis

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #421 on: January 02, 2019, 08:43:54 pm »
Why is it no longer relevant, what has changed?
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #422 on: January 02, 2019, 09:12:33 pm »
Why is it no longer relevant, what has changed?
Technology has progressed. A well to wheel efficiency way over 50% should be possible with Hydrogen. But again: efficiency isn't really relevant. Only the costs and (political) feasebility are. A grid between north Africa and Europe may be more efficient but if the Italian or Spanish politics don't want it, then it stops right there. Converting electricity to Hydrogen is much more flexible and thus less risky to invest in.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline apis

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #423 on: January 02, 2019, 09:26:25 pm »
Why is it no longer relevant, what has changed?
Technology has progressed. A well to wheel efficiency way over 50% should be possible with Hydrogen. But again: efficiency isn't really relevant. Only the costs and (political) feasebility are. A grid between north Africa and Europe may be more efficient but if the Italian or Spanish politics don't want it, then it stops right there. Converting electricity to Hydrogen is much more flexible and thus less risky to invest in.
Do you have a source showing it can be 50%?

In this case we are talking about moving energy from where it's produced to where it's consumed so any losses means you have to produce that much extra. With hydrogen you have the large losses, but you also have all the extra hassle of producing it, compressing it, storing it and transporting it, and finally converting it back to useful energy. Just using a long wire got to be more cost efficient.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #424 on: January 02, 2019, 09:57:07 pm »
According to Wikipedia electricity to Hydrogen conversion can be up to 95%. Modern fuel cells are in the 50% to 60% ballpark. When the waste heat it used a fuel cell can reach 85% efficiency.

IMHO you are seriously underestimating the cost of thousands of kilometers of electricity grid.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 


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