Thunderf00t has lost last of his marbles and remaining bits of credibility

[EEVblog]

My guess is Starship will still not have launched anything into orbit other than parts of itself, by then. Care to wager €20 on it? Maybe my €100 previous bet was too rich for everyone else's blood.

Starship has actually deployed dummy satellites already, twice. Sub-orbital vs orbital is a safety technicality. I have no doubt Starship will be deploying real new gen Starlink satellites soon.
Whether or not the Starship is actually reusable soon remains to be seen though, that's still up in the air, but everything else is pretty much sorted.

[Psi]

The difference is in the goals.

Blue Origin goal is to build a competitor to Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy so they can
 - Get a share of the commercial launch market profits that SpaceX is getting now.
 - Deploy their own leo sat network and get a share of the Starlink profits
Blue Origin want to get something working well enough to do that asap, it doesnt need to be optimized, it just needs to do the job.

Where as SpaceX Starship is trying to iterate and optimize the best and cheapest bulk transport to space to build a base on the moon and mars. So SpaceX don't mind abandoning current designs for new ones if it will serve their goals better in the long run.
They could have stopped at Raptor 2, it was working well enough, but they designed Raptor 3 and now all the ship and booster designs need to be changed to use the new engine. Same with extending the ship and booster length to carry more fuel in V2 and V3.
SpaceX are playing the long game because it's a better plan for their goals.

[wraper]

^Funnily enough, SpeceX's "long game" is faster than BO's "something working well enough to do that asap".

[quince]

My guess is Starship will still not have launched anything into orbit other than parts of itself, by then. Care to wager €20 on it? Maybe my €100 previous bet was too rich for everyone else's blood.

Starship has actually deployed dummy satellites already, twice. Sub-orbital vs orbital is a safety technicality. I have no doubt Starship will be deploying real new gen Starlink satellites soon.
Whether or not the Starship is actually reusable soon remains to be seen though, that's still up in the air, but everything else is pretty much sorted.

Somebody owes Dave €20 and it isn't me.

[EEVblog]

My guess is Starship will still not have launched anything into orbit other than parts of itself, by then. Care to wager €20 on it? Maybe my €100 previous bet was too rich for everyone else's blood.

Starship has actually deployed dummy satellites already, twice. Sub-orbital vs orbital is a safety technicality. I have no doubt Starship will be deploying real new gen Starlink satellites soon.
Whether or not the Starship is actually reusable soon remains to be seen though, that's still up in the air, but everything else is pretty much sorted.

Somebody owes Dave €20 and it isn't me.

Starship is possibly two maybe three flights away from launching orbital satellites.
Next flight will prove the new V3 Starship, one after that will go orbital (and possibly deploy real starlink satellites), and failing that, they will almost certainly deploy starlinks on the launch after that.
At the current rate, that's maybe 6 months.

[paulca]

It was impressive when Sputnik did it /troll.

[Psi]

Assuming no V3 ship explosions, yea, i agree. Real orbital sat deploy in around 3 launches.

[rob77]

It was impressive when Sputnik did it /troll.

yes on top of that reusable ICBM 

[Yrouel86]

I skimmed through this thread and it seems people think TF issues are recent and about Musk, this is not correct.

Thunderf00t history of disingenuous misleading behavior go way back, for example even when his focus was Anita Sarkeesian he used various trickery to make his points. See this video:



But even before that you can find traces of dishonest behavior in his RationalWiki page https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Thunderf00t:

"He tends to go off on a tangent, repeat points previously made in other videos about other people and quote mine them, taking things out of context."
"Rather than actually engage with the calm and measured arguments that Dr. Winters provided, Thunderf00t instead decided to misrepresent her arguments"
"Several commenters pointed out factual errors in the entry, none of which were acknowledged."

Taking things out of context, misinterpreting arguments, factual errors not addressed... sounds familiar?

Thunderf00t is just reusing the same old playbook, it's just that Musk remaining popular for so long (Anita Sarkeesian faded) things have gone way out of proportion compared to previous "phases".

All this to say that thunderf00t has been disingenuous and dishonest for a long time, you might just be noticing it now.

Also to answer @EEVBlog point about being "directionality correct", that is some nonsense, if thunderf00t was even "directionally" correct he wouldn't need to cheat to make his points, reality would speak for itself.
Instead he has to constantly misinterpret things, fudge numbers and use other trickery to make his points.
And speaking of reality in the context of Musk companies, things couldn't have went more opposite to TF narrative if he tried:

Falcon 9 is an absolute workhorse especially thanks to reusability which TF clowned (yes he didn't literally say it was impossible)
Starlink is a money printer (despite TF claiming repeatedly that SpaceX was only burning money) and they are quite proficient in hitting those "moving targets" (the laser links is another thing TF clowned)
Superhevy successfully and repeatedly lit all 33 engines (again another thing TF clowned because of N1)
Starship made concrete progress which resulted in absolutely embarrassing TF streams where he also demonstrated how clueless he is on what he pretends to deliberate on
Tesla Semi was released to customers (Pepsi Co) despite TF calling it "vaporware" and a "empty husk" and had "busted" it for needing a 16t battery because TF can't divide by 4 apparently (he calculated the battery that an hypothetical Semi would need to match a typical diesel semi range of 2000 miles instead of scaling his math to the actual claimed top range of 500 miles).
Optimus is real despite once again TF clowning on it and predicting Tesla would reveal just "an arm with some LEDs" (and later claiming a demo was faked with Optimus being "bolted to the floor or something")
SpaceX not only is profitable but is soon to IPO.
Robotaxi launched in Austin and its now demonstrating paid unsupervised rides (this time TF did literally say this would "never happen")

The list goes on and on and on, for everything TF would want you to believe in reality things went actually in the complete opposite direction.

Anyway I'm glad that even Dave switched from (paraphrasing) "leave him alone and eventually just leave a comment to correct him" to distancing himself from TF and recognizing how off the rails he went

[John B]

That's a weirdly anachronistic angle of attack on TF for a first post. He was correct to push back against anti male gamer grifters of the 2010s, just as he did with creationists.

[fourfathom]

That's a weirdly anachronistic angle of attack on TF for a first post.

Anachronistic?  It seemed fairly up to date and appropriate when it comes to Musk-related issues.

[Yrouel86]

That's a weirdly anachronistic angle of attack on TF for a first post. He was correct to push back against anti male gamer grifters of the 2010s, just as he did with creationists.

I think it's important to reframe the issues of TF content as not being just "Elon Derangement Syndrome" but the consequence of a long standing dishonest/disingenuous behavior.
This also shatters the argument that is just "Musk fans" wrongly criticizing TF because you can make the same exact argument of TF being disingenuous while never mentioning Musk.

Once you understand that thunderf00t is just reusing his old playbook his more recent behavior makes sense albeit cranked to 11 this time around.

[EEVblog]

Anyway I'm glad that even Dave switched from (paraphrasing) "leave him alone and eventually just leave a comment to correct him" to distancing himself from TF and recognizing how off the rails he went

I haven't "distanced myself" from TF, it's no different to any other creator I know/watch.
If they have a hit, I'll agree.
If they have a miss, I'll disagree.
If they make content I"m not really interested in then I simply won't watch it.
What I can do is offer a unique insight because I'm in the exact same business as TF, unlike almost every one else that comments on this type of stuff.
Phil obviously has his style of content, and you can either take it or leave it. But a lot of people really seem to want to make it personal.

[Yrouel86]

Anyway I'm glad that even Dave switched from (paraphrasing) "leave him alone and eventually just leave a comment to correct him" to distancing himself from TF and recognizing how off the rails he went

I haven't "distanced myself" from TF, it's no different to any other creator I know/watch.

Maybe "distanced" is not the right word but still your tone has definitely changed and it is obvious that you have recognized the problem.
I just wish you'd call him out more explicitly and publicly the same exact way you have called out other bullshitters/scammers and the like (lying is lying after all).

What I can do is offer a unique insight because I'm in the exact same business as TF

You might be on YouTube as TF but thankfully you don't make the same bs content.

unlike almost every one else that comments on this type of stuff.

It doesn't take to be a content creator on YouTube to spot the bs and disingenuous behavior of thunderf00t content.
I don't need to be making videos to call him out on on the 16t Semi battery claim or the fact that he picked ridiculously small concrete barriers (500kg) to claim the Semi in the Tesla demo was carrying only 5 tons.
Even without going into these pesky details when looking at the big picture of his content, his "directionality" if you will, as I said things couldn't have gone more opposite than what he would like you to believe.

Starlink is one glaring example but there's plenty more.

But again it seems you have become very aware of these issues for a while now

Edit to respond to this bit:

Phil obviously has his style of content, and you can either take it or leave it. But a lot of people really seem to want to make it personal.

The "style" of TF content is not the problem here, unless you consider lying a "style" that is.

The problem is that he nonchalantly makes stuff up to make his points (again see my Semi example with him fudging the math to calculate the battery weight of the Semi not based on the actual claimed top range of 500 miles but a completely made up Semi that would match the 2000 miles range of a diesel which Musk/Tesla didn't claim wanting to do).
And even when he's not directly making stuff up he's still misleading and disingenuous in conveying information which results in a distorted reality/alternate reality bubble which in my opinion is still a form of lie.

Small aside though, thunderf00t is the first to "make it personal" when attacking his targets so it's not like making it personal about him would be out of the question. Here's an example:



But anyway his bs is plenty enough and speaks for itself.

[wilfred]

Don't worry about TF he had a relevance bypass years ago.

[EEVblog]

Maybe "distanced" is not the right word but still your tone has definitely changed and it is obvious that you have recognized the problem.
I just wish you'd call him out more explicitly and publicly the same exact way you have called out other bullshitters/scammers and the like (lying is lying after all).

Go make your own videos.

It doesn't take to be a content creator on YouTube to spot the bs and disingenuous behavior of thunderf00t content.
I don't need to be making videos to call him out on on the 16t Semi battery claim or the fact that he picked ridiculously small concrete barriers (500kg) to claim the Semi in the Tesla demo was carrying only 5 tons.

If you won't make videos, why expect others to?

Also, a brand new account and your first post is an extensive whinge about TF. Why?

[Yrouel86]

Maybe "distanced" is not the right word but still your tone has definitely changed and it is obvious that you have recognized the problem.
I just wish you'd call him out more explicitly and publicly the same exact way you have called out other bullshitters/scammers and the like (lying is lying after all).

Go make your own videos.

And it would work just like leaving a comment under his videos right?

If you won't make videos, why expect others to?

Well I didn't say expect, I said wish (because coming from you would certainly have a different weight).
And to reword my previous sentence: "I wish you didn't threat thunderf00t with gloves the same way you din't treat with gloves solar roadways or any other thing you called out (doesn't seem right to use "busted")"

Also, a brand new account and your first post is an extensive whinge about TF. Why?

I stumbled upon this thread while doing something else and I decided to add my perspective since I'm familiar with the topic.
I think it was important to make it clear that thunderf00t didn't start to spew his bs when he started to make content about Musk, he started to make content about Musk using the same MO he used when he made other content in the past, now it's just way more evident so much so that you also noticed.

Don't worry about TF he had a relevance bypass years ago.

Unfortunately this is not completely true.

While it's true that he likely doesn't have the impact he once had, mostly because reality catches up with the bs sooner or later making it harder and harder for him to sell his bs.
Take Starlink for example, it's now too successful with too many people with personal or otherwise direct experience of its usage that purporting it as a scam/failure is basically impossible.

However despite this I still see people regurgitating his talking points which means his bs is still very much around.

But yeah I think that at least for the random passerby it's best to just laugh and move on. I myself only point out the most egregious bs once reality has caught up with it. Latest example being the (unsupervised) Robotaxi launch which TF literally said would "never happen" (more specifically he said that Tesla using their FSD software for the Robotaxi would never happen)

[EEVblog]

Well I didn't say expect, I said wish (because coming from you would certainly have a different weight).
And to reword my previous sentence: "I wish you didn't threat thunderf00t with gloves the same way you din't treat with gloves solar roadways or any other thing you called out (doesn't seem right to use "busted")"

The answer is no, I have absolutely no interest in making that kind of content.

[Psi]

TF has a bad tendency to make his fights personal while trying to make them seem factual.
I think that is partly why he gets under peoples skin.

[Yrouel86]

TF has a bad tendency to make his fights personal while trying to make them seem factual.
I think that is partly why he gets under peoples skin.

I agree but this should come second or anyway last when critiquing him.

The main issue is that he just lies to make his points and for his overall narrative, be it by fudging numbers or by omission or by twisting words or some other trickery he's simply dishonest and disingenuous.

I keep making the example of the Tesla Semi and his claim of needing a 16t battery (again he made up a Semi that would match a diesel 2000 mile range to bust it) thus being able to carry only 5t because it's repeated in his second video (where he picked 500kg concrete barriers to claim the Semi was carrying only 5t of cargo) demonstrating intent to deceive and not just a mistake.
Plus the other claims of how the Semi was fake ("empty husk") because of how the aerodynamic shell looks from the back demonstrate again the intent to spin a specific deceptive narrative.

So yeah being an asshole is the least of his problems

[Psi]

Agreed, he also bends the truth or flat out lies sometimes to make his point. Which is unacceptable given his videos are presented as being factual.

[EEVblog]

TF has a bad tendency to make his fights personal while trying to make them seem factual.
I think that is partly why he gets under peoples skin.

Not always though. Solar Roadways for example, IIRC he never really went after the Brusaw's personally. And a lot of people think that's some of his finest work.
Musk on the other hand (apart from Trump) is literally the word's most divisive high profile person. So I guess it seems obvious to go after him personally, and from a creator point of view it gets the engagement. But then there is content fatigue, and unfortunately it's been 24 videos now since he did a video not involving Musk.
As a fellow creator I don't know how he does that, there is just so much else out there to bust.
It's like if Sabine Hossenfelder did 24 videos in a row about the same topic.

[Yrouel86]

TF has a bad tendency to make his fights personal while trying to make them seem factual.
I think that is partly why he gets under peoples skin.

Not always though. Solar Roadways for example, IIRC he never really went after the Brusaw's personally. And a lot of people think that's some of his finest work.
Musk on the other hand (apart from Trump) is literally the word's most divisive high profile person. So I guess it seems obvious to go after him personally, and from a creator point of view it gets the engagement. But then there is content fatigue, and unfortunately it's been 24 videos now since he did a video not involving Musk.
As a fellow creator I don't know how he does that, there is just so much else out there to bust.
It's like if Sabine Hossenfelder did 24 videos in a row about the same topic.

Doing lots of videos on a single person is simply what he does, he did the same with Sarkeesian. Had she not become irrelevant he would've made more. He has simply latched on another popular/controversial figure with Musk.

But, and sorry but I want to insist on this, the style of his content, the quantity of videos and his attitude are not an issue and making these type of arguments/critique pulls away from the real issue which is about his integrity, the lies (not just mistakes) in his content.

Being dishonest and disingenuous is worse, much worse in fact, than being an asshole/prick or obsessed with a public figure

[paulca]

Has anyone read his papers?  Wondering if there is a persona thing being played.  Does he use the same tone in his cited papers?

[EEVblog]

Has anyone read his papers?  Wondering if there is a persona thing being played.  Does he use the same tone in his cited papers?

You wouldn't get very far in the academic field if your papers were filled with personal commentary.
And he is a very successful researcher, his H-index score of 42 is pretty outstanding.
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=NubQZmsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra

I've read a couple, and they seem like ordinary academic papers.