Electronics > Manufacturing & Assembly

Be careful with quoted delivery dates

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peter-h:
I've just ordered a load of chips from one mfg, which sells direct. Not a small order, either...

They quoted a delivery date in July. I placed the order.

Turns out they had them in stock and the longish lead time was quoted to get people to place orders.

It is one of the tricks mfgs and distis use to maintain demand, in the face of the bubble having collapsed, to delay the inevitable bloodbath.

It is a hassle because we now have to pay 2 months sooner... they even nicely backdated the order to 31st May, the day before the order was processed :)

I contacted them - hard to do since they communicate only via support tickets - and they pretend that the parts came into stock because somebody cancelled. It so happens I got screenshots showing "July" over a few days, so this is a policy, not an accident :)

Be careful to specify delivery dates...

asmi:
LOL this is the first time ever I see someone complaining about getting their order FASTER than expected... I fail to understand how can longer lead time can possibly lead to more orders.
One REALLY can't please everybody.

Monkeh:

--- Quote from: asmi on June 01, 2023, 07:09:23 pm ---LOL this is the first time ever I see someone complaining about getting their order FASTER than expected... I fail to understand how can longer lead time can possibly lead to more orders.

--- End quote ---

If something is readily in stock, people will just order it whenever they get around to it. If there's a lead time, they'll get the order in early to secure their slice of the pie.

Imagine if you ordered, say, 40 tonnes of concrete blocks for your building project, and they turned up six weeks early, when all you have is a bare patch of ground with no foundations and no equipment on site. If you're going to give someone a delivery time, you should mean it.

peter-h:
Exactly.

Especially as I delayed delivery of other parts to July :)

If this was some cheap thing I would not care but it is $5000. If you ignore your cash flow and order 5k here and 5k there, you soon have to pay out 50k months too soon.

The electronics business (I've been in it since 1978) has always worked as follows:

- prices gradually fall
- eventually they fall too far
- the sales reps go out and spread the dreaded a-word (allocation)
- everybody panics and places orders for way more than they need (allocation means no dely dates are quoted, so you have to move fast to get into the queue)
- prices go up, often 10x
- eventually the pipeline is all delivered and everybody is sitting on tons of stock (some gets offloaded to the 2nd level cowboy distis, which everybody hates because nobody likes to take a hit on the writedown)
- there is a bloodbath, sales reps have collected their bonuses and go to other jobs
- the cycle repeats

The covid bubble was deeper and longer than any before but we are now around stage 6. Parts are being shipped, suddenly appearing in stock despite dates in late 2023 or even 2024 being "current as of yesterday". Prices are collapsing but mfgs are creating fake shortages to slow down the price collapse.

It stinks, but nothing changes.

Ex stock would help with widely available parts like a LM358, but nowadays most parts are single sourced, and a longer lead time yields more orders and at a higher price.

thm_w:
What manufacturer? Digikey, Microchip, and I'm sure many others offer order scheduling and lines of credit.
If you are a decent customer there shouldn't be much issue negotiating payment at a future date.


--- Quote from: Monkeh on June 01, 2023, 07:23:01 pm ---
--- Quote from: asmi on June 01, 2023, 07:09:23 pm ---LOL this is the first time ever I see someone complaining about getting their order FASTER than expected... I fail to understand how can longer lead time can possibly lead to more orders.

--- End quote ---
If something is readily in stock, people will just order it whenever they get around to it. If there's a lead time, they'll get the order in early to secure their slice of the pie.

Imagine if you ordered, say, 40 tonnes of concrete blocks for your building project, and they turned up six weeks early, when all you have is a bare patch of ground with no foundations and no equipment on site. If you're going to give someone a delivery time, you should mean it.

--- End quote ---

Yeah but this is a small reel of IC's, not construction materials.

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