Desktop PNP - A race to the bottom?

[mrpackethead]

Just was contemplating this the other day that with the large number of Destktop PNP machiens that are rapidlly flooding the market, and some of them actually doing a really good job,  that this will be a race to the bottom on price. and we'll loose a few on the way... It wont' be like TVs' and phones, but I think it will happen.

Neoden made a lot of noise, but thats gone quiet. QiHe seem to be favored by some. Charming and a few other Chinese ones.. Theres the Chinese-German-Chinese crowd and theres some other European machines.

And theres a bunch of DIYers making machines as well.

Any one else wonder what might happen.

[Inflex]

5 years ago it was starting to look interesting, and  then I changed business away from cottage-scale manufacturing; will be very interested to see if we can get anything usable under $1k that doesn't require some awful compromise, particularly with the feeder section which is where a lot of the cheaper ones used to make some gag-worthy omissions in the quest for the budget

All the logic/controller side should be cheap-as by now, even the vision-assist, likewise the XYZ table should be a dime-a-dozen  now since 3D printing and desktop CNC has become very much a thing.

[Smallsmt]

The price depends on size, precision, felixibility and reliability.
I am thinking about a maker machine build from openbuilds parts but still all parts you need to build costs more than 1000€.
And finally a company need to earn money by selling machines.

For a hobby use it's not a problem to spend several hundred ours to build and learn.

Even the features we are talking about are not clear for most of he people.

For example Open Loop positioning means the stepper motor move a given step count and the precision depends on step loss the belt tension and the mechanics.
Now some clever people say use closed loop to prevent step loss but Neodenand Quihe only use closed loop to prevent step loss.
The error based on belt and mechanics still remains!

So we have 2 types of closed loop positioning:

1. Servo motor using encoder inside and ball screw spindle that's real closed loop and you receive only position error on spindle precision.
2. Servo or stepper using a linear scale system where position is feed back to the positioning loop. This is the most used system on professional machines.

The interesting point on Openbuilds.org linear guides modules is the spindle inside  and the cheap price.
This will help to receive a closed loop system for a small price.

Next thing the controller systems are not common usable so first we need a controller using modules which can be operated in a network chain.
I am currently building such a system.
The next step is an open interface we build using a DLL based software system to adopt any controller to our software.
If this dll was embedded in OpenPNP it's possible to use any of our controllers to build machines or use our VisionPlacer V3 software for professional use.

I whish everyone a happy new year
Best regards
Michael

[mrpackethead]

The price depends on size, precision, felixibility and reliability.

Prices will get squeezed to the point where profitablity in this will be reduced to a minimum.     The comments you've made show me you have little grasp of how market forces work.   

[anfang]

Any one else wonder what might happen.

It will be like laser cutters and 3D printers and UAV. There is a floor that can be exceeded by DIY. But that market is actually fairly small. For a company to exist selling the products, it will still be several thousand $ to buy a "good" product at these volumes and the definition of a "good" product will continue to increase to justify that few thousand $ price tag. Look at what MakerBot does. They charge a lot, but they give a  lot in terms of sales and support.

To a company making real products, the difference between a $5000 P&P machine and a $20K P&P machine is nothing. They will be more worried about how much they have to pay the guy to run the machine. Even for a 1 or 2 man shop, to have a company owner spending 5 hours getting a design ready to be placed automatically is economically dicey since the chances are good he could have a dozen boards built locally for $1000 with no headaches.

I'd not expect the prices of turnkey PNP to fall much below the $6K they are today (TVM920). Instead, as component prices drop, they will put in more accurate servos, better rails, more feeder slots, better camers, etc, to keep the selling price where it is. Same with phones, same with TVs.

And I'd note that chinese laser cutter prices are still several thousand $ almost 1 decade after the laser revolution. They've done exactly as I noted above: Bigger tables, more watts, servos instead of steppers. But still a $4K selling price. Companies playing in that real are still in business 10 years later. Those offering $500 machines never last more than a few years. Their customers are looking for a deal, and their customers will leave the second someone offers a machine for $490.

[mrpackethead]

I'd not expect the prices of turnkey PNP to fall much below the $6K they are today (TVM920). Instead, as component prices drop, they will put in more accurate servos, better rails, more feeder slots, better camers, etc, to keep the selling price where it is. Same with phones, same with TVs.

That is probable.   You'll end up getting a lot more bang for the same bucks.   I think that the winners will be teh ones who also make their machines totally open. Ie, nothing hidden.  That is a huge draw card for makers.