DigiKey bait-and-switch "scam"

[wraper]

Is this the pandemic toilet paper situation, but in electronics?   

Toilet paper temporary shortage was artificially caused by idiots. Component shortage is real.

[gnuarm]

[...] Fedex didn't seem to mind shipping two packages with exact same labels on them[...]

If the two packages were picked up at the same location, the computers would probably just assume the operator scanned the same package bar code twice...

If a shipment is a multi-packaged they go with the same shipping label. At least that was the case some years ago with UPS when i shipped.

I don't use UPS because they are too problematic.  But I was dropping off a multibox shipment once with Fedex and they would not accept my packages because I had the same label on all three boxes.  I couldn't get the software to work right and thought it was ok to use the same label, but they have no way to track the shipment if they all have the same barcodes, so they don't do that.  Even if the shipment has multiple packages, they each get a separate barcode and label.

[gnuarm]

Well that at least is not a surprise. Carriers have been swamped with online orders as most people were obeying stay-at-home orders and doinc christmas shopping online instead of hitting the mall.

Actually it is surprising. I've placed orders with Mouser and DK on Dec 21st, and received the former on Dec 23rd, and the latter on Dec 22nd. Also placed another order with DK yesterday, and today it's already in my hands. So I didn't notice much delays - Mouser orders typically show up the next biz day, so the one I made on 21st was a day late, but this did happen on occasions before too, so not too surprising either. DK was right on the money for both orders - once I actually managed to place the order that is.
Same can be said of DHL - I had two PCB orders delivered to me - one right before xmas, and another one yesterday - both arrived few days before their own estimated times.

I believe it was with Digikey I've selected USPS Priority mail and got the package in two days when it otherwise would be four days with either UPS or Fedex ground.  Seems Digikey is in a tiny corner of Minn that shipments are routed through North Dakota.  I've even received shipments from California in two days using Priority mail.  It's also the cheapest way to ship.  Don't know how it is fairing with the pandemic and such. 

[gnuarm]

Is this the pandemic toilet paper situation, but in electronics?   

Toilet paper temporary shortage was artificially caused by idiots. Component shortage is real.

I like that when people respond to uncertainty by taking precautions they are referred to as "idiots".  Yes, when word circulates that there may be shortages people are more likely to buy that item than not.  Given the supply chain that has little flexibility the result are persisting shortages.  This is not the result of "idiots".  It is the result of people trying to cover their "assets". 

A couple of years ago there was a shortage of 0603 passives.  While I watched lead times stretch out most everything I needed was hard to come by but available.  One part on my BOM was down to a single stocked brand.  I bought a reel at a somewhat inflated price creating more price pressure.  Was I an idiot? 

I've not heard much about the current semiconductor shortage, but there are reports of auto makers shutting down factories for a month or so, which says it is very real.  Not sure why though.  I haven't heard anything about the cause.  Are the semiconductor companies not making enough due to the pandemic? 

[Siwastaja]

I like that when people respond to uncertainty by taking precautions they are referred to as "idiots".  Yes, when word circulates that there may be shortages people are more likely to buy that item than not.  Given the supply chain that has little flexibility the result are persisting shortages.  This is not the result of "idiots".  It is the result of people trying to cover their "assets". 

Non-idiots such as myself stockpiled a rational amount of balanced variety of important assets you can't easily replace with something else. Forward-looking ones, such as myself, did this over extended period of time to reduce the sudden stress on the supply chain.

Idiots stockpiled two years worth of toilet paper in one day, and only one-two weeks worth of food.

[KE5FX]

I've run into an issue using DigiKey the past few months.

Parts that are backordered no longer show up as backordered on the product listing page, but only when they're in the cart.

What I've seen is that out-of-stock parts show zero availability on the product listing page as expected, but you can no longer see the expected in-stock date without adding it to your cart, at which point you have to remove it manually before looking elsewhere.  Apparently DigiKey thinks that they will get more business by annoying their customers and impeding their workflow.

The CEO of Mouser should send a handwritten thank-you note to DigiKey's management, accompanied by a nice gift card for Olive Garden or Arby's or whatever is considered gourmet dining in Thief River Falls, MN.    Between this and the other changes to the site, DigiKey is in the process of destroying decades of customer goodwill.

[wraper]

Is this the pandemic toilet paper situation, but in electronics?   

Toilet paper temporary shortage was artificially caused by idiots. Component shortage is real.

I like that when people respond to uncertainty by taking precautions they are referred to as "idiots".  Yes, when word circulates that there may be shortages people are more likely to buy that item than not.  Given the supply chain that has little flexibility the result are persisting shortages.  This is not the result of "idiots".  It is the result of people trying to cover their "assets". 

It's exactly being idiots. There was no real shortage in manufacturing. And you can shit without a toilet paper too, people have done it for thousands of years. As Siwastaja said, what's the point of acquiring yearly supply of toilet paper, if you will be dead without food by then.

[thinkfat]

But they were also hoarding food. We had a shortage of Pesto, Pasta, flour, sugar, canned meat, rice etc. Over many weeks in March, April and well into May.

[wraper]

They look like idiots for me:

[gnuarm]

I like that when people respond to uncertainty by taking precautions they are referred to as "idiots".  Yes, when word circulates that there may be shortages people are more likely to buy that item than not.  Given the supply chain that has little flexibility the result are persisting shortages.  This is not the result of "idiots".  It is the result of people trying to cover their "assets". 

Non-idiots such as myself stockpiled a rational amount of balanced variety of important assets you can't easily replace with something else. Forward-looking ones, such as myself, did this over extended period of time to reduce the sudden stress on the supply chain.

Idiots stockpiled two years worth of toilet paper in one day, and only one-two weeks worth of food.

It doesn't matter if you gradually stockpile.  If you understand the supply system is a constant current source even a 1% increase in demand by EVERYONE will quickly deplete the local inventory (filtering capacitors). 

The "idiots" you describe stockpile a bunch at once and then don't buy any more for some time while you continue to deplete the system.  At the end of your depletion period it has the same impact on the system. 

What people fail to understand is the power supply does not have much compliance.  Scott is not going to build a new toilet paper factory overnight if at all.  That's also why it is so bad for manufacturers when there is a drop in demand.  They end up with manufacturing resources they have to shut down.

I happen to have lucked out on the TP front.  I bought the mega pack at Costco and happen to have something like a couple of years worth on hand.  That's 1.5 packs!  I never realized just how much toilet paper that was.  It's the kind of thing you don't think about until you can't get it.

I normally would shop every week for groceries.  Now I buy enough to last 3 weeks or more.  I run into limits on how much I can buy which is a bad thing in my book.  I'm not hoarding, I'm just trying to avoid going out any more than I need to.  That's a good thing.

[gnuarm]

But they were also hoarding food. We had a shortage of Pesto, Pasta, flour, sugar, canned meat, rice etc. Over many weeks in March, April and well into May.

Again, that is not from hoarding.  Many of those things were simply because the supply rate is a constant and the demand peaked, not because of hoarding, but because people were at home and started baking.  A sudden spurt in making bread meant yeast was in short supply.  Hoard yeast?  Doesn't work because it expires. 

I've got a 20 lb bag of rice I've never opened.  Maybe I should sell it on the black market.

[SilverSolder]

[...]
I normally would shop every week for groceries.  Now I buy enough to last 3 weeks or more. [...]

Are you getting your fresh fruit & vegetables from somewhere else?

[Bud]

They look like idiots for me:

How's that different from the usual scenes during Black Friday sales that happen every year? 

[wraper]

How's that different from the usual scenes during Black Friday sales that happen every year?

As if they are not created by idiots as well.

[SilverSolder]

How's that different from the usual scenes during Black Friday sales that happen every year?

As if they are not created by idiots as well.

You know the old saying:  think how dumb the average person is...   and half of them are even dumber! 

[Siwastaja]

I think the average person is actually quite OK!

It's same in the traffic. Most drive just fine, and for that reason, are not observed by others who also drive just fine. Yet the one who crawls in the middle of the road blocking the traffic is the one who's being observed.

It's just that when we see idiotic behavior, our brain tricks us into thinking it's what majority is doing, because that's what we are seeing, it's a kind of selection or sampling bias. In fact, it's just that certain idiotic behavior just sticks out; it's so visible, and yet at the same time, sensible and rational behavior mostly goes unnoticed. This gives the rational people a superiority bias.

It's enough if 1% of the customers shop 2 years worth of toilet paper in one week to cause temporary shortage because the supply chain has been carefully tuned for average consumption. Yet this 1% do not represent average person.

But supply chain can respond to changes, it's not a constant current source. There are many layers all of which have some level of feedback and feedforward available. For example, wheat flour can be, and actually is stored in large amounts; the actual production of wheat isn't a constant current source to begin with. If pasta consumption goes up, plants manufacturing it (from wheat flour) can well respond within a few weeks because it's a simple process. Overall, people don't suddenly start eating more, so yearly consumption is not changed, and long-term wheat storage has no problem supplying the increased demand, because it will be followed with decreased demand when the people are staying home and eating the supplies they stockpiled exactly in the way they planned to, and not buying more. This is all really simple and people are actually behaving surprisingly rationally, avoiding unnecessary shopping when there is a good reason to avoid it.

[SilverSolder]

I think the average person is actually quite OK!

It's same in the traffic. Most drive just fine, and for that reason, are not observed by others who also drive just fine. Yet the one who crawls in the middle of the road blocking the traffic is the one who's being observed.

It's just that when we see idiotic behavior, our brain tricks us into thinking it's what majority is doing, because that's what we are seeing, it's a kind of selection or sampling bias. In fact, it's just that certain idiotic behavior just sticks out; it's so visible, and yet at the same time, sensible and rational behavior mostly goes unnoticed. This gives the rational people a superiority bias.

It's enough if 1% of the customers shop 2 years worth of toilet paper in one week to cause temporary shortage because the supply chain has been carefully tuned for average consumption. Yet this 1% do not represent average person.

But supply chain can respond to changes, it's not a constant current source. There are many layers all of which have some level of feedback and feedforward available. For example, wheat flour can be, and actually is stored in large amounts; the actual production of wheat isn't a constant current source to begin with. If pasta consumption goes up, plants manufacturing it (from wheat flour) can well respond within a few weeks because it's a simple process. Overall, people don't suddenly start eating more, so yearly consumption is not changed, and long-term wheat storage has no problem supplying the increased demand, because it will be followed with decreased demand when the people are staying home and eating the supplies they stockpiled exactly in the way they planned to, and not buying more. This is all really simple and people are actually behaving surprisingly rationally, avoiding unnecessary shopping when there is a good reason to avoid it.

Many of these problems are caused by "just in time" deliveries and minimizing inventories -  i.e. the power supply filter capacitors are as small as possible, so expect some ripple under heavy load! 

E.g. only now - 9 months after Covid became a "thing" - is it possible to buy isopropyl alcohol at the local drug stores / pharmacies...  they only have room for 18 bottles on their shelf, which is re-supplied every few days.  They never changed the amount of space allocated to it despite demand being crazy for months and months, causing them to sell out 5 minutes after a delivery...

[NorthGuy]

If a person predicted a stock market boom (which is nothing more than increased demand for stocks) and bought ahead of the others, he is considered a market guru, a genius of a kind.

If a person predicted toilet paper shortages (which is nothing more than increased demand for toilet paper) and bought ahead of the others, he is considered an idiot.

There's a contradiction here.

[wraper]

If a person predicted toilet paper shortages (which is nothing more than increased demand for toilet paper) and bought ahead of the others, he is considered an idiot.

Person did not predict anything, and especially not ahead of time. Just rushed in stores with a bunch of similar lunatics, bought some product this stupid heard randomly selected and then caused stock to temporary deplete. I can effing do the same, go into store, buy all of the sugar they have, and they will be out of stock for some time. Then say I predicted that would happen . And sit on a pile of it for decades.
This shit happened before covid, one time there was some rumor on social networks that salt will go away because of some EU directives, idiots started buying salt like mad. There was one grandma who stored so much salt into her attic, that it collapsed into her bedroom and nearly killed her. The same happened with buckwheat, dumbasess bought tons of it at hiked prices (stores know their shit) even though barely eat it.

[NorthGuy]

I can effing do the same, go into store, buy all of the sugar they have, and they will be out of stock for some time. Then say I predicted that would happen . And sit on a pile of it for decades.

Sure. People do this all the time. Except they don't buy physical sugar, but future contracts, and, of course they sell as the price goes higher. The richest banks in the world make most of their profit by manipulating futures, options, other derivatives.

[tooki]

This shit happened before covid, one time there was some rumor on social networks that salt will go away because of some EU directives, idiots started buying salt like mad. There was one grandma who stored so much salt into her attic, that it collapsed into her bedroom and nearly killed her.

  what was she planning for, to pickle herself in salt like a mummy?

Fun fact: the USGS says that the expected lifetime supply of salt for a newborn today is about 28,200lbs (13,000kg) of salt. But of course, the vast majority of that will be for industrial use as a raw ingredient, not as food!

[Siwastaja]

Sell the toilet paper, making profit in the process -> from idiot to genius. Or just an opportunist. But non-idiot, in any case.

This is all logical. You're considered a non-idiot or even genius if you do something that benefits at the very least yourself, or someone else, or in best case, everyone. Stock market players at least try to make a profit, that's the whole point.

Stockpiling properly requires quite some logical thinking. If you never normally stockpile, you are immediately going outside of your automated comfort zone and can't do it properly by instinct alone. You need to be well aware about what you actually use and how much and how often, and how that relates to the expiration dates of products. Also if you expect to be a part of the solution instead of part of the problem, you need to be able to make some realistic predictions early on.

[Alti]

It is a dynamical system whose state can become fluctuating in a response to actors' actions.
I really doubt those actions are irrational from actor's point of view. These are based on information available and built-in demand model (mainly life experience). If you run out of supply, expect losses. Does not matter here if that is TP or DDR4. I would not call someone an idiot even if the action was based on mass distributed false information, gossip or propaganda.

So if the distribution system is organized this way (free market + open information flow) then simply correlated actions of actors lead to fluctuations (and generate various additional costs, fights in the shop, stockpiling, anxiety).

I would say that an idiot is the one who expects this system of distribution to be unconditionally stable.

[wraper]

I would not call someone an idiot even if the action was based on mass distributed false information, gossip or propaganda.

If someone is lacking brain to think on it's own, it's called idiot.

[cdev]

In finance, they call it "systemic risk". Maybe websites list components like banks sometimes claim they have liquid assets that are actually tied up.

Is this the pandemic toilet paper situation, but in electronics?   

Toilet paper temporary shortage was artificially caused by idiots. Component shortage is real.