Holy hell my head is spinning (re: tariffs and pcb fab/assembly)

[tggzzz]

I think a week to get stabilized is very optimistic.  This is likely a 6 month or longer war.  Maybe 3.75 years.

I agree, but I note there are plans for it to be longer than 3.75 years.

[phil from seattle]

I think a week to get stabilized is very optimistic.  This is likely a 6 month or longer war.  Maybe 3.75 years.

I agree, but I note there are plans for it to be longer than 3.75 years.

Discussing that probably involves descending into politics so I will just say I hope not.

[tggzzz]

I think a week to get stabilized is very optimistic.  This is likely a 6 month or longer war.  Maybe 3.75 years.

I agree, but I note there are plans for it to be longer than 3.75 years.

Discussing that probably involves descending into politics so I will just say I hope not.

Good decisions.

There are three mottos that I think are worthwhile: "Think", "Be prepared", and "Trust, but verify". And, I suppose, "Have fun, safely".

[phil from seattle]

I think a week to get stabilized is very optimistic.  This is likely a 6 month or longer war.  Maybe 3.75 years.

I agree, but I note there are plans for it to be longer than 3.75 years.

Discussing that probably involves descending into politics so I will just say I hope not.

Good decisions.

There are three mottos that I think are worthwhile: "Think", "Be prepared", and "Trust, but verify". And, I suppose, "Have fun, safely".

And, Hold my beer.

[peter-h]

Is the whole 8471.* branch import duty free in the US?

This says it is
https://news.sky.com/story/smartphones-and-laptops-among-items-excluded-from-reciprocal-tariffs-us-says-13347295
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-excludes-smartphones-computers-reciprocal-tariffs-2025-04-12/

[bson]

Is the TIN that you refer to the same as the EIN issued to my LLC, or something else?

Taxpayer Identification Number.  Every legal entity has one.

[forrestc]

Is the TIN that you refer to the same as the EIN issued to my LLC, or something else?

Taxpayer Identification Number.  Every legal entity has one.

And for individuals it's your SSN.

It's the 9 digit number (sometimes hyphenated) that goes on your tax return.

[UnijunctionTransistor]

I'm not at all surprised.  Why should they invest in building a business when tomorrow or next week or next year the capricious orange one will change his mind and wipe out any advantage they might have?  It's the uncertainty that kills business planning. When the future is completely opaque, go into defensive mode. Protect what you have and save capital for when the future is a lot less uncertain.

And precisely that uncertainty, ladies and gentlemen, is the fuel that escalates an economic recession into a full fledged depression.

From the Wikipedia’s Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act:

“Hoover signed the bill against the advice of many senior economists, yielding to pressure from his party and business leaders. Intended to bolster domestic employment and manufacturing, the tariffs instead deepened the Depression because the U.S.'s trading partners retaliated with tariffs of their own, leading to U.S. exports and global trade plummeting. Economists and historians widely regard the act as a policy misstep, and it remains a cautionary example of protectionist policy in modern economic debates.[2] It was followed by more liberal trade agreements, such as the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934.”

[bson]

The U.S. also had a 20% trade surplus in the 1930s, so yeah, tariffs are bad if you have a trade surplus.  It can only shrink your surplus.  But conversely, if you have a deficit they will shrink the trade deficit.  That's not under debate; the actual question is whether they result in onshoring.  For that to happen they will likely have to be set by congress as law, until then the onshoring benefits are likely limited.  But it will absolutely reduce a trade deficit.

[UnijunctionTransistor]

At its most basic, I agree with Trump that something had to be done with the federal deficit.
What I strongly disagree with, is its execution.

For starters, the sanction’s on-today, off-tomorrow strategy, coupled with arbitrary percentages that were pulled straight off his ass, have sent the markets into absolute turmoil. Industries are paralyzed, not knowing what the situation will look like tomorrow.

Then the simultaneous declaration of economic war against the whole world, not distinguishing between long term friends and allies from enemies, has riled dozens of countries which the US will require their full cooperation to counter China’s inexorable economic rise.

[mtwieg]

At its most basic, I agree with Trump that something had to be done with the federal deficit.
What I strongly disagree with, is its execution.

Are you referring to the federal budget deficit or the trade deficit? Tariffs only relate to the trade deficit, nothing to do directly with budget deficit. And trade deficits are not some problem we needed to "do something about".

[UnijunctionTransistor]

Sorry, should have used a complete description; Trade Deficit.
The Federal Budget Deficit is another, far larger, can of worms which is beyond my little brain’s comprehension capabilities.

[salfter]

I would appreciate it if US folks making small PCB orders from the China PCB manufacturers during this chaotic period could share their experiences. Did you see a sudden price increase from the vendor? Did the shipper hold your shipment for ransom, or did they deliver and then hit you with a tariff bill later? What has changed in your most recent China PCB fabrication experience vs. previous ones?

I was about to fire off an order for this RC2014-compatible RAM/ROM card this morning with JLCPCB (look in the jlcpcb/production_files directory for the necessary uploads).  It's a roughly 100x50mm board with a handful of components.  The "global direct line" shipping option seems to have gone away, with only DHL/UPS/FedEx available.  Selecting standard PCB with mostly default options (only selecting purple solder mask instead of green) and no assembly is (as of today at 12:22 PM PDT) yielding a total price of $30.14, shipped via UPS with tariffs and such prepaid on their end:

• merchandise total: $2.00
• shipping estimate: $24.64 (UPS Express Saver DDP)
• customs duties and taxes: $3.50 (175% of $2.00)

In the past, this would've been an under-$10 order.

Adding assembly to the mix (since I prepaid for some of the chips on the board) drives the order cost to $171.10, broken down as follows:

• merchandise total: $56.34
• shipping estimate: $42.79 (UPS Express Saver DDP)
• customs duties and taxes: $98.60 (175% of $56.34)
• prepaid amount: -$26.63 (components in my JLCPCB parts library)

Lack of a cheap shipping option doesn't help, but the duties are a killer, especially for an assembly order.  I've also looked at OSH Park ($38.65 for 3) and DKRed ($46.36 for 4), and while JLCPCB is still cheaper (and you get 5 boards), it's not cheaper by nearly as much as it was. 

To be fair, it should also be noted that both OSH Park and DKRed provide ENIG finish as a standard feature, while I selected leaded HASL with JLCPCB.  Selecting ENIG finish at JLCPCB drives the PCB-only cost to $75.54, which is definitely not competitive:

• merchandise total: $18.20
• shipping estimate: $25.49 (UPS Express Saver DDP)
• customs duties and taxes: $31.85 (175% of $18.20)

[meshtron]

Yep, I had one of those days too.  Frustrating.  Especially since it was my design error that made me need these at all.

On the bright side, cost of learning this stuff just went up for me.  Maybe I'll be a little (or a lot) more careful in reviewing stuff going forward.

[phil from seattle]

Earlier this month, I ran a couple of JLC builds to sneak in before the de minimis exception goes away (for real, uh, maybe, this time).  The global direct shipping option disappears above 1Kg, I believe. I expect a lot of changes to everything for at least a few weeks but eventually it will settle down to a semblance of stability.  I find it interesting that they are not collecting tariff on shipping cost.  Last import shipment that I paid tariff on, it was figured on total cost including shipping. Chaos abides...

I'm stocked up for a couple of months so won't need to be placing any big orders. Hopefully the China import tariff/tax will drop to something more reasonable by then.  Even the IPOTUS has admitted the rate is not sustainable.