Holy hell my head is spinning (re: tariffs and pcb fab/assembly)

[tggzzz]

I think a week to get stabilized is very optimistic.  This is likely a 6 month or longer war.  Maybe 3.75 years.

I agree, but I note there are plans for it to be longer than 3.75 years.

[phil from seattle]

I think a week to get stabilized is very optimistic.  This is likely a 6 month or longer war.  Maybe 3.75 years.

I agree, but I note there are plans for it to be longer than 3.75 years.

Discussing that probably involves descending into politics so I will just say I hope not.

[tggzzz]

I think a week to get stabilized is very optimistic.  This is likely a 6 month or longer war.  Maybe 3.75 years.

I agree, but I note there are plans for it to be longer than 3.75 years.

Discussing that probably involves descending into politics so I will just say I hope not.

Good decisions.

There are three mottos that I think are worthwhile: "Think", "Be prepared", and "Trust, but verify". And, I suppose, "Have fun, safely".

[phil from seattle]

I think a week to get stabilized is very optimistic.  This is likely a 6 month or longer war.  Maybe 3.75 years.

I agree, but I note there are plans for it to be longer than 3.75 years.

Discussing that probably involves descending into politics so I will just say I hope not.

Good decisions.

There are three mottos that I think are worthwhile: "Think", "Be prepared", and "Trust, but verify". And, I suppose, "Have fun, safely".

And, Hold my beer.

[peter-h]

Is the whole 8471.* branch import duty free in the US?

This says it is
https://news.sky.com/story/smartphones-and-laptops-among-items-excluded-from-reciprocal-tariffs-us-says-13347295
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-excludes-smartphones-computers-reciprocal-tariffs-2025-04-12/

[bson]

Is the TIN that you refer to the same as the EIN issued to my LLC, or something else?

Taxpayer Identification Number.  Every legal entity has one.

[forrestc]

Is the TIN that you refer to the same as the EIN issued to my LLC, or something else?

Taxpayer Identification Number.  Every legal entity has one.

And for individuals it's your SSN.

It's the 9 digit number (sometimes hyphenated) that goes on your tax return.

[UnijunctionTransistor]

I'm not at all surprised.  Why should they invest in building a business when tomorrow or next week or next year the capricious orange one will change his mind and wipe out any advantage they might have?  It's the uncertainty that kills business planning. When the future is completely opaque, go into defensive mode. Protect what you have and save capital for when the future is a lot less uncertain.

And precisely that uncertainty, ladies and gentlemen, is the fuel that escalates an economic recession into a full fledged depression.

From the Wikipedia’s Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act:

“Hoover signed the bill against the advice of many senior economists, yielding to pressure from his party and business leaders. Intended to bolster domestic employment and manufacturing, the tariffs instead deepened the Depression because the U.S.'s trading partners retaliated with tariffs of their own, leading to U.S. exports and global trade plummeting. Economists and historians widely regard the act as a policy misstep, and it remains a cautionary example of protectionist policy in modern economic debates.[2] It was followed by more liberal trade agreements, such as the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934.”

[bson]

The U.S. also had a 20% trade surplus in the 1930s, so yeah, tariffs are bad if you have a trade surplus.  It can only shrink your surplus.  But conversely, if you have a deficit they will shrink the trade deficit.  That's not under debate; the actual question is whether they result in onshoring.  For that to happen they will likely have to be set by congress as law, until then the onshoring benefits are likely limited.  But it will absolutely reduce a trade deficit.

[UnijunctionTransistor]

At its most basic, I agree with Trump that something had to be done with the federal deficit.
What I strongly disagree with, is its execution.

For starters, the sanction’s on-today, off-tomorrow strategy, coupled with arbitrary percentages that were pulled straight off his ass, have sent the markets into absolute turmoil. Industries are paralyzed, not knowing what the situation will look like tomorrow.

Then the simultaneous declaration of economic war against the whole world, not distinguishing between long term friends and allies from enemies, has riled dozens of countries which the US will require their full cooperation to counter China’s inexorable economic rise.

[mtwieg]

At its most basic, I agree with Trump that something had to be done with the federal deficit.
What I strongly disagree with, is its execution.

Are you referring to the federal budget deficit or the trade deficit? Tariffs only relate to the trade deficit, nothing to do directly with budget deficit. And trade deficits are not some problem we needed to "do something about".

[UnijunctionTransistor]

Sorry, should have used a complete description; Trade Deficit.
The Federal Budget Deficit is another, far larger, can of worms which is beyond my little brain’s comprehension capabilities.