Author Topic: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!  (Read 3847 times)

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Offline olkipukki

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Here we go, the proposed list for "special" tariff mentioned in https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/301FRN.pdf

Have a look HS codes from 850,851,852,853,...  :-/O



 

Offline blueskull

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2018, 08:39:21 am »
And in return, China has applied huge tax on agricultural imports from US.

My bet is that China chose agricultural because of 3 reasons:
1. China can import food deficiencies from South America and Asia, at slightly higher price. US import is not a must.
2. Farmers are the most defenseless people. Unlike industrial workers who can shift to different jobs in no time, farmers will face serious living issues if they can't sell produce. By hitting farmers, this applies the most democracy pressure to US government.
3. Part of recent negotiation between China and US is that US wants China to shift IC import from Taiwan and Korea to US, and by shifting agricultural import from US to Taiwan and Korea and other neighbours nearby, this is an aggressive posture to US.

This turns out better than I expected. I was expecting Chinese government will apply huge tax on Qualcomm and Intel chips and abolish all their patents in China, initiating an IP war with the entire West, but thank lord they didn't.

Let's see how this goes, but it's gonna be fun.
 

Offline Smallsmt

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2018, 08:40:05 am »
8479.50 is on the list  |O

All machines from China now have to pay 25% more duty.

Note:  All products that are classified in the 8
-digit subheadings of the Harmonized Tariff
Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) that are listed in this Annex are covered by the proposed
action. The product descriptions that are contained in this Annex are provided for informational
purposes only, and are not intended to delimit in any way the scope of the proposed action. 
Any questions regarding the scope of particular HTSUS subheadings should be referred to U.S.
 

Offline blueskull

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2018, 08:43:43 am »
All machines from China now have to pay 25% more duty.

Chinese saying: "if there is a wish, there is a way". Export the full kit from China, do the assembly in Mexico, problem solved. Made in Mexico, tax free from NAFTA.
This is also how China exports steel to US -- set up factories in Mexico, export ingots from China, then do the final processing in Mexico.
 

Offline DerekG

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2018, 08:45:43 am »
I wonder if this will put up the prices from Digikey on exports to Australia & other countries?

I note resistors, LEDs etc will now be subject to the increased tariffs going into the USA.

Looks like the input costs for American cars, washing machines & generators will all be rising.
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Online tautech

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #5 on: April 04, 2018, 08:49:41 am »
Here we go, the proposed list for "special" tariff mentioned in https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/301FRN.pdf

Have a look HS codes from 850,851,852,853,...  :-/O
Mother, is that a list or what ?  :scared:

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Offline blueskull

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2018, 08:53:19 am »
I wonder if this will put up the prices from Digikey on exports to Australia & other countries?

Likely will. Australia is usually following America's diplomatic moves, particularly to China and Russia, sometime even more aggressive.

I note resistors, LEDs etc will now be subject to the increased tariffs going into the USA.

Who cares? Usually passives are the ignored part of a BOM. I don't know others' designs, but my designs usually have at least 100x more expensive active parts than passive parts.

I noticed that ICs from China doesn't get hit by this, so those made in China ST parts and NXP/Nexperia parts will not get affected.
 
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Offline Avacee

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2018, 08:54:27 am »
85151100 ........... Electric soldering irons and guns
84798992 ........... Automated electronic component placement machines for making printed circuit assemblies
85238020 ........... Discs, tapes, solid-state non-volatile storage devices, "smart cards" and other media for the recording of sound or of other phenomena, whet
Lets hope some get diverted to Europe at a discount due to lost sales in the US :)

90302005 ........... Oscilloscopes and oscillographs, specially designed for telecommunications
Alas, I don't think this will mean Rigol's being dumped into Europe :(  (Only reference to "osci" a text search found)
Or are they covered by these?:
90303338 ........... Other instruments and apparatus, nesi, for measuring or checking electrical voltage, current, resistance or power, without a recording device
90303901 ........... Instruments and apparatus, nesi, for measuring or checking electrical voltage, current, resistance or power, with a recording device

Looking at the list overall it seems to be industry's where America has some home grown capability so presumably hoping it will boost said home industry.
Agree with Blueskull over the targeted retaliation being smart.

Can't wait for Round 2! :)
 

Online tautech

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2018, 09:06:43 am »
And in return, China has applied huge tax on agricultural imports from US.

My bet is that China chose agricultural because of 3 reasons:
1. China can import food deficiencies from South America and Asia, at slightly higher price. US import is not a must.
2. Farmers are the most defenseless people. Unlike industrial workers who can shift to different jobs in no time, farmers will face serious living issues if they can't sell produce. By hitting farmers, this applies the most democracy pressure to US government.
3. Part of recent negotiation between China and US is that US wants China to shift IC import from Taiwan and Korea to US, and by shifting agricultural import from US to Taiwan and Korea and other neighbours nearby, this is an aggressive posture to US.
What this will do is impact on global agricultural trade by reducing the returns in the largest global ag maket, the US. The ripple effect could last for some years.
It's unlikely China on its own can absorb the surplus ag product and even if the could it'll be only at the price they're willing to pay.
Stinks a bit of marketplace engineering.
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Offline blueskull

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2018, 09:12:30 am »
And in return, China has applied huge tax on agricultural imports from US.

My bet is that China chose agricultural because of 3 reasons:
1. China can import food deficiencies from South America and Asia, at slightly higher price. US import is not a must.
2. Farmers are the most defenseless people. Unlike industrial workers who can shift to different jobs in no time, farmers will face serious living issues if they can't sell produce. By hitting farmers, this applies the most democracy pressure to US government.
3. Part of recent negotiation between China and US is that US wants China to shift IC import from Taiwan and Korea to US, and by shifting agricultural import from US to Taiwan and Korea and other neighbours nearby, this is an aggressive posture to US.
What this will do is impact on global agricultural trade by reducing the returns in the largest global ag maket, the US. The ripple effect could last for some years.
It's unlikely China on its own can absorb the surplus ag product and even if the could it'll be only at the price they're willing to pay.
Stinks a bit of marketplace engineering.

China only applied tax on $3B of products, hardly nothing in global scale.
The goal is to take advantage of democracy lever, which works in US but not in China.
My bet is in round 2, China will start to tax something real, like ICs, and in the mean time lift all tax from EU/SA/Asian imports.
 

Online BravoV

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2018, 09:17:58 am »
2. Farmers are the most defenseless people. Unlike industrial workers who can shift to different jobs in no time, farmers will face serious living issues if they can't sell produce. By hitting farmers, this applies the most democracy pressure to US government.

If I'm not mistaken, the US farmers majority are Trump voters right ?

Online tautech

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #11 on: April 04, 2018, 09:26:54 am »
And in return, China has applied huge tax on agricultural imports from US.

My bet is that China chose agricultural because of 3 reasons:
1. China can import food deficiencies from South America and Asia, at slightly higher price. US import is not a must.
2. Farmers are the most defenseless people. Unlike industrial workers who can shift to different jobs in no time, farmers will face serious living issues if they can't sell produce. By hitting farmers, this applies the most democracy pressure to US government.
3. Part of recent negotiation between China and US is that US wants China to shift IC import from Taiwan and Korea to US, and by shifting agricultural import from US to Taiwan and Korea and other neighbours nearby, this is an aggressive posture to US.
What this will do is impact on global agricultural trade by reducing the returns in the largest global ag maket, the US. The ripple effect could last for some years.
It's unlikely China on its own can absorb the surplus ag product and even if the could it'll be only at the price they're willing to pay.
Stinks a bit of marketplace engineering.

China only applied tax on $3B of products, hardly nothing in global scale.
The goal is to take advantage of democracy lever, which works in US but not in China.
Understood, and that $3B is most of NZ's meat production which might have to find a more lucrative market than the US. Same goes for any other nation that exports ag products to the US.
In past decades of primary production I've seen and experienced these things before where net income has been dramatically affected along with confidence in ag industries and in NZ's case the effect it will have on overseas investment on our $ as we're a mostly primary production based economy.
Big countries don't give a shit as long as the small ones keep producing what they want/need.

Like I said before: Stinks a bit of marketplace engineering.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2018, 09:34:20 am by tautech »
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Offline blueskull

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #12 on: April 04, 2018, 09:59:19 am »
If I'm not mistaken, the US farmers majority are Trump voters right ?

I guess Chinese government really doesn't care who voted for Trump.
This tax sanction to China is bound to happen, regardless D or R.

Based on my understanding, this is just a sequence programmed in history.
China has increased export and stepped up on quality in recent years. This could lead to devastation to high end industries in the West, and most important, technology independence of China.
This event is coming, and hence the countermeasure.

If you take a look at the list, you will find some pretty cool stuff -- telecom gears, oscilloscopes, PnP machines, etc.
And I bet if there is a round 2, that will be Chinese ICs.

The same thing happened to Japan 30 years ago, but Japan is politically friendly to US, unlike China.
The trade war will not likely to end so soon unless either:
1. US stops trying to export Western freedom and value to China,
2. Communist party falls apart,
3. A local war broke out between China and a pawn of US near China, such as Philippines, India or most likely, Taiwan.

My understanding is China is preparing a war and the following long term technology sanction from the West. China is now spending metric tons of money on developing equivalent technology of latest Western high tech, such as ICs, precision machining and advanced materials, and US wants to put a stop on this fast independence from Western high tech import.

China had 2 previous attempts after cold war to attack and gain control of Taiwan, both failed due to Western export sanction. Also Tiananmen square incident triggered an export sanction. The goal of Chinese government is to get independence from Western technology. China has the military force and geography advantage, plus a strict dictatorship government which is very handy in an active war. The only thing stopping China from declaring war with Taiwan is the fear of sanction and the following declining of people's living quality, then ultimately the instability and social unrest from the root.

Military help to Taiwan from NATO is not what Chinese government worries the most. Even if Chinese government did the absolutely unthinkable, by sinking all US pacific fleet with nukes, China still has US mainland to mutually exchange nuclear warheads, so China will not get nuked no matter what it does during this future Taiwan war, as long as it doesn't attack soil of NATO countries. For this reason, I believe NATO will only provide token force or only weapon sponsorship, or just stay away, and China will not fight Japan or SK.

Another reason why this is bound to happen is that China MUST have a fight with a Western force near by. US has managed to spread Western freedom to everywhere surrounding China, starting from Taiwan, SE Asia and in the late 90s, Vietnam, then in the 00s, India. Russia remains neutral between the West and China, and the last gate blocking Western freedom from entering China is North Korea. The recent teleconference between Trump and Kim made Chinese government very nervous. Should NK join the West and peacefully unite with SK, Chinese Communist Party will soon face angry citizens, so China must attack Taiwan before NK compromises to the West, otherwise CPC will not stand for long.
 
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Offline olkipukki

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #13 on: April 04, 2018, 11:25:12 am »
And in return, China has applied huge tax on agricultural imports from US.


not only http://images.mofcom.gov.cn/www/201804/20180404161059682.pdf
In my understanding, they included aircrafts as well (and other sort of bits and pieces not related to argo) or just typo?   >:D
 

Offline noras

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #14 on: April 04, 2018, 11:36:44 am »
i agree too

Offline blueskull

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #15 on: April 04, 2018, 11:57:28 am »
In my understanding, they included aircrafts as well (and other sort of bits and pieces not related to argo) or just typo?   >:D

That aircraft rule basically says B737 family. Typical Chinese government way of doing business -- before we can make them, give zero tax and encourage import. After we can make them, F you. The same business goes to automobiles and smartphones.

China's new commercial aircraft is basically a 737 alternative, so China doesn't have to import 737s anymore. Domestic production of Comac C919 and imported A320 family should keep Chinese aviation business going for a long time.

The maximum empty weight limit on this tax list is set to 45 metric ton, so that larger aircraft that China is yet unable to make, such as B767/B777/B747 can still be imported as usual.
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #16 on: April 04, 2018, 05:13:26 pm »
The whole purpose was to prevent local industries to go belly up so saving local jobs.
I am all for that but if you look at the succesfull american businesses than you look at businesses that are in the services and it domain, like Google, Amazon, Facebook.
The whole story is and will be that the american government should better educate their civilians to do higher payed jobs that are used internationally. Coal mines and steelfactories are 19th century industries look forward to 21st century industries and protect your IP.
 

Offline hermit

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #17 on: April 04, 2018, 05:20:58 pm »
If I'm not mistaken, the US farmers majority are Trump voters right ?

I guess Chinese government really doesn't care who voted for Trump.
This tax sanction to China is bound to happen, regardless D or R.  <hugely snipped>
While much of this may or may not be true you are over analyzing the current situation.  This is being done basically by one person that doesn't have the attention span to read your whole post.  His attention to detail is even more lacking.
 

Offline coppice

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #18 on: April 04, 2018, 05:28:34 pm »
The whole purpose was to prevent local industries to go belly up so saving local jobs.
No. The purpose was to prioritise a politically sensitive set of local jobs over the ones which will inevitably suffer in a trade war.
I am all for that but if you look at the succesfull american businesses than you look at businesses that are in the services and it domain, like Google, Amazon, Facebook.
The whole story is and will be that the american government should better educate their civilians to do higher payed jobs that are used internationally. Coal mines and steelfactories are 19th century industries look forward to 21st century industries and protect your IP.
This is an argument that has been running since the early waves of offshoring work. The problem with it is that the people are getting the kind of experience needed to make them highly valuable are working their way up the ranks in the places where the work went. Education on its own doesn't create highly valuable people. Education + solid experience does.
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #19 on: April 04, 2018, 05:43:23 pm »
This is an argument that has been running since the early waves of offshoring work. The problem with it is that the people are getting the kind of experience needed to make them highly valuable are working their way up the ranks in the places where the work went. Education on its own doesn't create highly valuable people. Education + solid experience does.
And which company is hiring uneducated people to gain solid experience?
You have to start with educating your generations to a certain level so they can start their own local startup companies. Offshoring work, if you look at IT I only see for instance Indian SW engineers travel to the west, I do not see western SW engineers travel to India. So a lot of those expats sent money back to the homeland. That is also income for that country because the new money is then again spent locally.
But first you need people with education to be able to gain experience before they are hired.
 

Offline sokoloff

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #20 on: April 04, 2018, 05:55:23 pm »
Offshoring work, if you look at IT I only see for instance Indian SW engineers travel to the west, I do not see western SW engineers travel to India.
I regularly send software engineers traveling to India and travel there myself twice per year. (We also do bring our India-based SWEs to Europe and the States as needed, but the coordinating travel is absolutely bi-directional.)
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #21 on: April 04, 2018, 06:00:59 pm »
Offshoring work, if you look at IT I only see for instance Indian SW engineers travel to the west, I do not see western SW engineers travel to India.
I regularly send software engineers traveling to India and travel there myself twice per year. (We also do bring our India-based SWEs to Europe and the States as needed, but the coordinating travel is absolutely bi-directional.)
And you stay there for a year or years? That is what I mean with an expat not business travel or syncing business cases but substantially living in another country.
 

Offline coppice

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #22 on: April 04, 2018, 06:22:41 pm »
This is an argument that has been running since the early waves of offshoring work. The problem with it is that the people are getting the kind of experience needed to make them highly valuable are working their way up the ranks in the places where the work went. Education on its own doesn't create highly valuable people. Education + solid experience does.
And which company is hiring uneducated people to gain solid experience?
I don't think any business has much demand for very poorly educated people these days. Even simple assembly work requires a reasonable education level these days. Why do you bring education levels into this?
You have to start with educating your generations to a certain level so they can start their own local startup companies.
India, China, and other Asian targets for offshored work generally have excellent education systems, and have done so for a long time. They've been beefing up the technology aspects of their education systems in the last 30 years very effectively.

Why is starting local companies critical in your view? It seems like a good idea, but much of the people development in Asia has been in local branches of western companies. That tends to be where they have found the most demanding opportunities, and therefore the best opportunities to develop their value.
Offshoring work, if you look at IT I only see for instance Indian SW engineers travel to the west, I do not see western SW engineers travel to India. So a lot of those expats sent money back to the homeland. That is also income for that country because the new money is then again spent locally.
Are you referring to people moving long term, or on business travel? There are plenty of engineering people from the west travelling to India and vice versa on a regular basis. If you are talking about migrants, there has historically been a strong flow of Indian engineers to Europe and America, often soon after graduation. These days the flow has slowed a lot, as more well paid opportunities exist at home. 20 years ago you would find quite a few expat engineers working in India on several year assignments, taking the senior positions in organisations that were being set up. That has more or less ceased. There are plenty of experienced locals for these positions now.
But first you need people with education to be able to gain experience before they are hired.
So, where do you see people having a shortage of those?
 

Offline NANDBlog

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #23 on: April 04, 2018, 06:41:40 pm »
So what. USA food import is outright banned here. We dont need that crap quality plastic tasting industrial waste here.
No I'm not an anti USA fundamentalist. I'm telling you to stop eating that crap, because it is actually bad for you.
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: Trade wars: China vs US leads to a price hike for EE related staff?!
« Reply #24 on: April 04, 2018, 07:03:05 pm »
Ok perhaps it is that I am not being native in english but to rephrase:

Making money in the 21st century is investing in 21st century businesses such as Google, Amazon and the likes.
Even Apple if that company would make their products locally and pay their fair share of tax instead of producing in China and paying 0,5% tax through all kind of loopholes  ;)

It is not in protecting 19th century businesses such as coal mines and steel plants by raising import tax, that makes no sense.
That is my whole point. If you then look at what it takes to succesfully grow these new companies you need employees with higher education, not only high school.
So investing in education is investing in 21st century companies.

Amerika is a great country that have top Ivy League universities but AFAIK most students of those universities are foreigners from Asia and India.
The same here in Holland BTW , there are more foreign PhD students in technology studies than dutch, leaving after a few years when their 20% tax benefits expires, go figure.
There are lots of americans that could go succesfully to those universities but can not afford it, now that is what I do not understand. Better to invest in subsidizing that and raise the educational level of the country than focus on bygone industries.

Quote
India, China, and other Asian targets for offshored work generally have excellent education systems, and have done so for a long time. They've been beefing up the technology aspects of their education systems in the last 30 years very effectively.
Correct and they are much more motivated than most european or american students. That is why if we don't step up to the plate Asia is just going to be the next economic world leader, perhaps that is already too late, Americans and Europeans have gone lazy so that is our well deserved fate. If I look at Europe I just can not understand that only the north european countries have their economic system on par with the rules and all other countries don't give a damn and expect the northern countries to pay up, it is rediculous.

Quote
Why is starting local companies critical in your view?
I am talking about new startups that sell products globally and thus gain money from outside the country to that country.
Startups that only pump money around in their own country are not that much contributing to economic growth, although economists might disagree  :) .

Quote
Are you referring to people moving long term, or on business travel?
Ofcourse expats are long term employees from other countries working for many years in another country, sending much of their income back to the mothercountry to support their families there, and in time probably lot of them move back.
For the company that is not a big problem, they get the workers they need at the right time, they pay the same or less salary so they don't care.
But for a country it would be better if they had less unemployment and more own people working at those companies, also investing and spending all their money locally.

Quote
So, where do you see people having a shortage of those?
All around me, most of our tech companies now have >30% foreigners in their service locally because there are not enough tech students locally.
Our students choose (reasoned bit black/white ) studies that are easier or more fun, or have no use at all for businesses (like art) but we do not put numerus fixus'es on those (less valuable) studies.
Luckily it is getting better , tech studies are now gaining students but there were 10 years ago all MBA students and tourism studies but very few tech students.


 


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