Author Topic: Whole of China shutdown  (Read 45464 times)

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Online blueskull

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #950 on: March 21, 2020, 04:22:00 pm »
My theory on this is that almost everybody in China over 10 years old was exposed to SARS and MERS, which are closely related viruses.  That may have given them some resistance to the new virus.

SARS infected only a few thousands of people in China, and being a more violent virus, having symptom-less infection is rarer than COVID19.
MERS was largely erupted in Korea, with China having only very sparse cases.

Death rate in China is actually not that low if you look at only Wuhan, where hospitals were not enough so patients had to receive substandard treatment.
For the other part of China, due to the infection was well controlled, hospitals were always enough to give any patient enough treatment.

Italy has this rapid onset with limited medical resource is the main reason why it has so many casualties.
For this reason, I believe there is no reason to worry about the same thing in US where lock downs and other measures are taken, while the country has tons of reserve medical resource.

Despite the rapid onset of Italy, its patient density is still lower than Wuhan at its peak. Wuhan sorted out the issue with 2 new hospitals, 16 makeshift hospitals and 300+ hotels requisitioned for quarantine.
The situation in Italy is far from what it was in Wuhan a 5 weeks ago.

Italy among other countries are building those makeshift hospitals to keep patients in hospitals to prevent cross infection as well as to provide medical treatment.
I think in two weeks or so once their project has finished, we should see massive drop of daily new cases.
 

Online coppice

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #951 on: March 21, 2020, 04:49:29 pm »
Death rate in China is actually not that low if you look at only Wuhan, where hospitals were not enough so patients had to receive substandard treatment.
For the other part of China, due to the infection was well controlled, hospitals were always enough to give any patient enough treatment.
For any outbreak of something new its useless to look at the total death rates where they break out. When something new takes people by surprise they don't initially respond well, and people don't really know the best way to treat the problem anyway. Look at the double hit issue with SARS, which caused a number of people to die after it was thought they had recovered. If you look at Wuhan's figures for just the past month they probably reflect what can be achieved quite well.
 

Online blueskull

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #952 on: March 21, 2020, 04:56:03 pm »
For any outbreak of something new its useless to look at the total death rates where they break out. When something new takes people by surprise they don't initially respond well, and people don't really know the best way to treat the problem anyway. Look at the double hit issue with SARS, which caused a number of people to die after it was thought they had recovered. If you look at Wuhan's figures for just the past month they probably reflect what can be achieved quite well.

Exactly. I was explaining why Italy has so bad numbers -- lack of preparation and rivalry of resources. They didn't anticipate it would break out there, and they didn't prepare for that.
 

Online thinkfat

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #953 on: March 21, 2020, 05:36:17 pm »
The mortality rates are much higher in Europe that they were in China.

My theory on this is that almost everybody in China over 10 years old was exposed to SARS and MERS, which are closely related viruses.  That may have given them some resistance to the new virus.

Certainly, there are wild variations in what is happening in various places, assuming that reports of infections are accurate.  That kind of suggests either certain populations have aquired partial immunity or there is a genetic resistance in some groups.

I think we in the US are going to get a LOT more information on where this is heading in the next few days.
(Shudder!!)

Jon

Wasn't MERS mainly a middle east thing? As in "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome" ?
 

Online thinkfat

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #954 on: March 21, 2020, 05:38:57 pm »
Death rate in China is actually not that low if you look at only Wuhan, where hospitals were not enough so patients had to receive substandard treatment.
For the other part of China, due to the infection was well controlled, hospitals were always enough to give any patient enough treatment.
For any outbreak of something new its useless to look at the total death rates where they break out. When something new takes people by surprise they don't initially respond well, and people don't really know the best way to treat the problem anyway. Look at the double hit issue with SARS, which caused a number of people to die after it was thought they had recovered. If you look at Wuhan's figures for just the past month they probably reflect what can be achieved quite well.

There's a similar pattern with covid-19, people are getting sick, appear to get better and then quickly deteriorate into very severe condition.
 

Online Simon

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #955 on: March 21, 2020, 09:24:43 pm »
 

Offline Electro Detective

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #956 on: March 21, 2020, 11:16:55 pm »
Death rate in China is actually not that low if you look at only Wuhan, where hospitals were not enough so patients had to receive substandard treatment.
For the other part of China, due to the infection was well controlled, hospitals were always enough to give any patient enough treatment.
For any outbreak of something new its useless to look at the total death rates where they break out. When something new takes people by surprise they don't initially respond well, and people don't really know the best way to treat the problem anyway. Look at the double hit issue with SARS, which caused a number of people to die after it was thought they had recovered. If you look at Wuhan's figures for just the past month they probably reflect what can be achieved quite well.

There's a similar pattern with covid-19, people are getting sick, appear to get better and then quickly deteriorate into very severe condition.


That's nothing new or exclusive to corona

It's been going on for decades with cancer patients
and or old people who's medication is either failing, needs revision or not administered to the letter,

or it's just time to go and escape their prolonged misery, so it's an up and down ride till they finally expire. 

Or it may even be a reaction to a drug on a person who may be starting to recover, with negative results

Just what medical qualifications do members here have?
Google and Wiki doesn't always cut it, nor a lot of legit looking 'ask me..' quack web sites

 

Online thinkfat

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #957 on: March 22, 2020, 08:16:03 am »
Death rate in China is actually not that low if you look at only Wuhan, where hospitals were not enough so patients had to receive substandard treatment.
For the other part of China, due to the infection was well controlled, hospitals were always enough to give any patient enough treatment.
For any outbreak of something new its useless to look at the total death rates where they break out. When something new takes people by surprise they don't initially respond well, and people don't really know the best way to treat the problem anyway. Look at the double hit issue with SARS, which caused a number of people to die after it was thought they had recovered. If you look at Wuhan's figures for just the past month they probably reflect what can be achieved quite well.

There's a similar pattern with covid-19, people are getting sick, appear to get better and then quickly deteriorate into very severe condition.


That's nothing new or exclusive to corona

It's been going on for decades with cancer patients
and or old people who's medication is either failing, needs revision or not administered to the letter,

or it's just time to go and escape their prolonged misery, so it's an up and down ride till they finally expire. 

Or it may even be a reaction to a drug on a person who may be starting to recover, with negative results

Just what medical qualifications do members here have?
Google and Wiki doesn't always cut it, nor a lot of legit looking 'ask me..' quack web sites

And your point being? It's completely irrelevant that there are other diseases showing a similar pattern, from causes entirely unrelated to the covid-19 mechanisms.
 

Offline Electro Detective

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #958 on: March 22, 2020, 09:23:49 am »

The point is/was that corona isn't the only game in town currently making people sick and exhibiting up and down symptoms.

 

Offline Jeroen3

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #959 on: March 22, 2020, 12:24:30 pm »
I can't find it right now. But some report wrote that after the flu-like symptons have been cleared up your immune system overreacts and target your lungs. Causing the sever pneumonia.

Also, many people say that you'll only get into the ICU with existing health conditions. What they do not mention is that obesitas is a health condition.
China has 6% of adults with obesitas. Italy 20%....
https://www.indexmundi.com/map/?v=2228

Also, maybe rename the topic to "Whole of World shutdown"?
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 12:29:17 pm by Jeroen3 »
 

Offline ChristopherN

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #960 on: March 22, 2020, 07:24:26 pm »
I think the testing rate is way higher here in Germany than in many other regions. News over here reported a few days ago that we have capacity to run 160k tests / day in official laboratories plus a lot of testing resources with private operators. I don't know if that is doable regarding the logistics or if that many people are getting tested, but it seems to be a lot.

Plus big cities like Hamburg and Berlin (which have many cases) have had empty streets for the last few days. Business meetings have gone down to nearly zero, as well as international and domestic travel. Most cases reported here in Hamburg can be attributed to people that returned from Iran, Austria and Switzerland, but the virus is not contained anymore. We have had declining numbers for the last two days but that seems to be partially due to reporting on the weekend.
 

Offline langwadt

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #961 on: March 23, 2020, 12:56:45 am »
Also, maybe rename the topic to "Whole of World shutdown"?

may I suggest Catastrofuck 2020- ?
 

Offline Electro Detective

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #962 on: March 23, 2020, 01:48:25 am »
 
                                                       :scared: :scared: :scared:       We're All Gonna DIE !!!!!!       :scared: :scared: :scared:   


Corona still can't touch the mass panic of Boxing Day sales with free sausage sizzle

Even the Four Horsemen and Grim Reaper keep away or do gigs elsewhere,
lest they get stampeded by armies of post X-Mas hoarding idiots buying shyte they don't need,
that isn't that cheap or discounted anyway.




« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 01:57:56 am by Electro Detective »
 

Offline fcb

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #963 on: March 23, 2020, 08:26:08 am »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct0hqz
Got round to listening to this yesterday.

Actually pretty interesting - explains why we here in the UK we somewhat fucked ourselves.
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Offline Mechatrommer

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #964 on: March 26, 2020, 06:54:32 pm »
so its quiet everybody locked down? this thread is no fooling around anymore? everytime i go out to buy food i have to reset ticking counter... 14 days. we extended our lock down act for another 14 days... i have to treat my clothing, body everything as smeared with "dirty paint" when i got home, i have to take care the kids that i wont touch them until i go straight to food drawer and straight to bathroom to sterilize myself with water and soap, i'll pull out my IPA stock on tissue and rub their fingers or tools where i think that have been contaminated with this "invisible paint" by ME along the way... what a fucked up situation, covidoofoobs everywhere. this is another "day 1" for me...  |O be safe everybody dont take this thing lightly. on the bright side... i can sit on my bench 48 hours straight on 2 occasions already  ::)  :palm: and probably the planet is relieved a bit from hydrocarbon polution..

edit: o i guess everybody on another thread in general section. covid is hot over there... i guess this thread is concluded...
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 07:00:54 pm by Mechatrommer »
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Offline Stray Electron

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #965 on: March 26, 2020, 09:58:16 pm »
so its quiet everybody locked down? this thread is no fooling around anymore? everytime i go out to buy food i have to reset ticking counter... 14 days. we extended our lock down act for another 14 days... i have to treat my clothing, body everything as smeared with "dirty paint" when i got home, i have to take care the kids that i wont touch them until i go straight to food drawer and straight to bathroom to sterilize myself with water and soap, i'll pull out my IPA stock on tissue and rub their fingers or tools where i think that have been contaminated with this "invisible paint" by ME along the way... what a fucked up situation, covidoofoobs everywhere. this is another "day 1" for me...  |O be safe everybody dont take this thing lightly. on the bright side... i can sit on my bench 48 hours straight on 2 occasions already  ::)  :palm: and probably the planet is relieved a bit from hydrocarbon polution..

edit: o i guess everybody on another thread in general section. covid is hot over there... i guess this thread is concluded...

   Yeap, China is fine so this thread can end. But we might have to start threads about the UK, the US, Italy and how F'd they are.

   US Pres Trump keeps talking about a 14 day lock down in the US and how we should be ready for business again by Easter.  I'm wondering what he's smoking?

   I'll end this thread by saying that China did a good job of minimizing the spread of the virus there.
 

Offline langwadt

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #966 on: March 27, 2020, 02:12:26 am »
so its quiet everybody locked down? this thread is no fooling around anymore? everytime i go out to buy food i have to reset ticking counter... 14 days. we extended our lock down act for another 14 days... i have to treat my clothing, body everything as smeared with "dirty paint" when i got home, i have to take care the kids that i wont touch them until i go straight to food drawer and straight to bathroom to sterilize myself with water and soap, i'll pull out my IPA stock on tissue and rub their fingers or tools where i think that have been contaminated with this "invisible paint" by ME along the way... what a fucked up situation, covidoofoobs everywhere. this is another "day 1" for me...  |O be safe everybody dont take this thing lightly. on the bright side... i can sit on my bench 48 hours straight on 2 occasions already  ::)  :palm: and probably the planet is relieved a bit from hydrocarbon polution..

edit: o i guess everybody on another thread in general section. covid is hot over there... i guess this thread is concluded...

   Yeap, China is fine so this thread can end. But we might have to start threads about the UK, the US, Italy and how F'd they are.

imagine what happens when it spreads to poorer countries with health systems that are stretched thin at the best of time  .....

 

Offline Sredni

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #967 on: March 27, 2020, 02:25:36 am »
   Yeap, China is fine so this thread can end. But we might have to start threads about the UK, the US, Italy and how F'd they are.

imagine what happens when it spreads to poorer countries with health systems that are stretched thin at the best of time  .....

They might not suffer that big of a blow. I mean, if your Country has been ravaged by smallpox, malaria, famine and drought in the last 50-60 years and the average median age of the population is 45  18 years, Covid-19 would just be 'another plague'.
I can imagine the inhabitants of the poorer regions of Africa thinking: "now the First World knows what's it like to live through malaria".

EDIT: fixed my numbers. They are scary. Median age in Europe is 44 years.

« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 02:31:02 am by Sredni »
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Offline langwadt

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #968 on: March 27, 2020, 02:30:48 am »
   Yeap, China is fine so this thread can end. But we might have to start threads about the UK, the US, Italy and how F'd they are.

imagine what happens when it spreads to poorer countries with health systems that are stretched thin at the best of time  .....

They might not suffer that big of a blow. I mean, if your Country has been ravaged by smallpox, malaria, famine and drought in the last 50-60 years and the average age of the population is 45 years, Covid-19 would just be 'another plague'.
I can imagine the inhabitants of the poorer regions of Africa thinking: "now the First World knows what's it like to live through malaria".


Africa maybe, how about south America?
 

Offline Sredni

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #969 on: March 27, 2020, 02:35:54 am »
Yep, Brazil might see very hard times. Bolsonaro said it's just a cold.  :palm:
And I'm pretty sure there are poorer countries that will suffer a lot.
This thing is gonna bounce back and forth between emispheres for years, I'm afraid.
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Offline langwadt

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #970 on: March 27, 2020, 03:16:30 am »
Yep, Brazil might see very hard times. Bolsonaro said it's just a cold.  :palm:
And I'm pretty sure there are poorer countries that will suffer a lot.
This thing is gonna bounce back and forth between emispheres for years, I'm afraid.

yeh, I'm afraid without a vaccine or cure it'll take a very long time to go back to anything like before.

back the 80's when HIV arrived it ended casual unprotected sex, this thing will end anything involving
being around groups of people ...
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #971 on: March 27, 2020, 04:29:59 pm »
Yep, Brazil might see very hard times. Bolsonaro said it's just a cold.  :palm:
And I'm pretty sure there are poorer countries that will suffer a lot.
This thing is gonna bounce back and forth between emispheres for years, I'm afraid.

yeh, I'm afraid without a vaccine or cure it'll take a very long time to go back to anything like before.

back the 80's when HIV arrived it ended casual unprotected sex, this thing will end anything involving
being around groups of people ...

I'm pretty sure it didn't end sex...   just like this won't end being around groups of people!
 

Online NorthGuy

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #972 on: March 27, 2020, 05:09:41 pm »
   US Pres Trump keeps talking about a 14 day lock down in the US and how we should be ready for business again by Easter.  I'm wondering what he's smoking?

He's just saying that the anti-virus measures are more damaging than the virus itself.

What China did in Wuhan took a lot of resources and a lot of discipline. I would be very surprised if similar results were achieved by many other countries.

 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Whole of China shutdown
« Reply #973 on: March 27, 2020, 05:54:48 pm »
   US Pres Trump keeps talking about a 14 day lock down in the US and how we should be ready for business again by Easter.  I'm wondering what he's smoking?

He's just saying that the anti-virus measures are more damaging than the virus itself.

What China did in Wuhan took a lot of resources and a lot of discipline. I would be very surprised if similar results were achieved by many other countries.

Other Asian countries have performed very well.  We've dropped the ball in the West...
 


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