Robo-Cab Predictions

[Mr. Scram]

Even though the continuing "accident toll" is an ongoing concern, the numbers of cars driven by humans are vast, as are the km/miles travelled, over many years, & in all sorts of road conditions.

The vast majority of the trips taken are safely completed.

On the other hand, there are a handful of self driving vehicles, some of which have already had accidents leading to death.

The argument is "We have operated this vehicle for X number of miles, which is more than the average driver does in Y time, hence, it is safer, statistically."

This reminds me of when germanium transistors first started to be widely used.

We were told "Accelerated life tests & statistics prove that these devices will have lifetimes far in excess of vacuum tubes----- of the order of twenty years!"

When they started to die after a few months to a year, we had to re-evaluate that information!

Humans are fairly terrible drivers. The vast majority of trips are safely completed, but literally millions die each year for very similar reasons. Fatigue, substance abuse, distraction. Getting it mostly right doesn't seem that comforting, especially if it's your loved one.

[FrankT]

PREDICTION #3:
Johnny Cab won't happen. People will detest humanoid robots trying to interact with them.

2020 - Japan is promising a fleet of self driving taxis for the 2020 olympics.

[FrankT]

Would vision only systems be confused by sidewalk-style art?

[wilfred]

2020 - Japan is promising a fleet of self driving taxis for the 2020 olympics.

Will they be operating on public roads or just ferrying people around a closed circuit in the Olympic precinct?

Japan premiered the Shinkansen for the 1964 Olympics so they have some cred. Still skeptical though. The whole autonomous vehicle thing seems to have gone off the boil.

[wilfred]

Would vision only systems be confused by sidewalk-style art?

(Attachment Link)

That's a good picture. It illustrates what you and I and a child can see immediately as a picture by the shadow of the cyclist inside the hole.

Just today the city was cleaning the fallen Autumn leaves from my street. It is a windy day and the leaves are all over the road and filling the gutters. How does that camouflage the road? I don't necessarily think leaves or a picture are serious issues. They certainly shouldn't be or snow and ice will never be overcome. But how does an auto deal with a pothole or any item of debris like a branch that a human driver would avoid. Do autos slow down out of caution?

[Mr. Scram]

That's a good picture. It illustrates what you and I and a child can see immediately as a picture by the shadow of the cyclist inside the hole.

Just today the city was cleaning the fallen Autumn leaves from my street. It is a windy day and the leaves are all over the road and filling the gutters. How does that camouflage the road? I don't necessarily think leaves or a picture are serious issues. They certainly shouldn't be or snow and ice will never be overcome. But how does an auto deal with a pothole or any item of debris like a branch that a human driver would avoid. Do autos slow down out of caution?

Do humans understand these things?

[Domagoj T]

Do humans understand these things?

I can certainly understand how somebody might fail to understand it's a painting and not a tunnel, especially in poor light conditions, late at night past the bedtime.
On one occasion, while I was staying in a hotel, I woke up thirsty in the middle of the night. The curtains were drawn over the windows so it was pretty dark in the room. I decided not to turn on the lights since I judged there was enough light to navigate to the bathroom, have a drink and get back to bed, after all I could see the corridor leading to the bathroom.
Three confident steps later I was violently stopped in my tracks when my nose, forehead, and pretty much everything else collided with a floor to ceiling closet. It had mirror front, and what I parsed as the corridor to the bathroom turned out to be a dim reflection of the window behind me.
Sure, I was half asleep and wasn't wearing my contact lenses, but still, Up until the collision I was entirely confident that I was seeing a corridor and nothing else.

[windsmurf]

2020 - Japan is promising a fleet of self driving taxis for the 2020 olympics.

Will they be operating on public roads or just ferrying people around a closed circuit in the Olympic precinct?

Japan premiered the Shinkansen for the 1964 Olympics so they have some cred. Still skeptical though. The whole autonomous vehicle thing seems to have gone off the boil.

From what I understand, there will be 2 types of vehicles.  One driving within the Olympic Village and venues ferrying athletes and  officials around, while robocabs will be running along several routes ferrying paying passengers.