I wouldn't really recommend the AVRISP mkII as it only does ISP programming and you can do this with an arduino, a bus pirate, or just about any other multi-use tool. It does have a nice case, and if you are going to be doing a lot of ISP for 8-bit AVR micros then it may do fine for you, but the AVR Dragon is MUCH better!
I have an AVR Dragon (one of the newer models with the mounting holes) and I've never had any problems with it. I even own an AVR ONE!, Atmel's most expensive debugger, and other than the lack of protection, I think the Dragon is better. The biggest reason to get the AVR Dragon over the others is that it supports High Voltage programming, which I promise you will save your but many times when you start to mess with fuses.
One last note; stay clear of cheap clones on ebay... they tend to not work with AVR Studio and are cheaply made.