Chip shortage hitting RasPi compute modules

[BreakingOhmsLaw]

Most Rasperry Pi compute modules now have 12 week and more delivery times. Mouser lists some popular ones (like the CM3+/LITE 94AC6633) with delivery in December.  That's nearly 7 months.
Better start ordering if you need these.

[woofy]

It's across the board and not just silicon.
Even solder prices have gone mad because tin is so inflated.

The Boss of IBM thinks we have two more years of this.

[hindenbugbite]

Broadcom being fabless does take a toll in this environment. I was reading an ExtremeTech article on how decisions 20 years ago are impacting us now: https://www.extremetech.com/computing/322695-why-we-cant-build-our-way-out-of-the-semiconductor-shortage

I remember thinking at one point that most popular uC like AVR, PIC, MSP and STM32 run their own fab lines and have less volatility for hobby boards like Arduino. It assumes other parts are also not affected.

[cortex_m0]

I remember thinking at one point that most popular uC like AVR, PIC, MSP and STM32 run their own fab lines and have less volatility for hobby boards like Arduino. It assumes other parts are also not affected.

Yes, the big MCU vendors run their own fabs. I think I recently saw a comment from an MCP executive that Microchip does about 60% of their production in their own fabs.

It is worth mentioning that very little MCU production is on a node smaller than 40nm, so the 5/7/10nm capacity that Apple, AMD & nVidia aren't competing with your STM32. I would be interested to know what the "state of the art" process is inside TI or Microchip's own fabs.

[peter-h]

I've been in electronic manufacturing since 1978 and if this indeed takes 2 years it will be the first one in all that time.

Normally there is a bloodbath in 6 months - probably because that is how long it takes for those with money and power to buy up the production pipeline for the quoted lead time which is 6-12 months right now. After that stock is delivered, the whole thing collapses because these customers stop buying until this stock (which they had no use for, since there is no underlying increase in end user demand) gets used up, which takes a couple of years, and then it all starts all over again

[jfiresto]

A sort of logistical relaxation oscillator.

[phil from seattle]

A sort of logistical relaxation oscillator.

a number of econometric models look quite familiar to EEs with a more theoretical background.

[SilverSolder]

I've been in electronic manufacturing since 1978 and if this indeed takes 2 years it will be the first one in all that time.

Normally there is a bloodbath in 6 months - probably because that is how long it takes for those with money and power to buy up the production pipeline for the quoted lead time which is 6-12 months right now. After that stock is delivered, the whole thing collapses because these customers stop buying until this stock (which they had no use for, since there is no underlying increase in end user demand) gets used up, which takes a couple of years, and then it all starts all over again

I would guess there is even a reduction in demand, as a result of the prices sky-rocketing and consumers/ end users/ engineers finding alternative solutions...

[TimFox]

A sort of logistical relaxation oscillator.

a number of econometric models look quite familiar to EEs with a more theoretical background.

Back in physics graduate school, we often spoke with our colleagues in the economics department.  It looked like most everything in real economics was either a relaxation oscillator or an underdamped forced harmonic oscillator.

[SilverSolder]

Real world economics may be closer to chaos theory? 

[TimFox]

Chaos theory started out as a branch of non-linear oscillation theory.

[KE5FX]

Only a matter of time until a futures market evolves.  Instead of ordering parts from DigiMouse, you'll have to buy calls for October STM32H747XIH6. 

And God help anybody who gets stuck with actual parts on the shelf.  You'll be laughed out of town, like the trader who accidentally ordered a tanker of crude oil to be delivered to the financial district.

[TimFox]

The price of crude oil went negative last April, due to a shortage of storage capacity at the ports (Covid again).  Tankers stayed away to hold the product until storage and prices became rational.
See  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/how-negative-oil-prices-revealed-the-dangers-of-futures-trading.html  and  https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52350082