Out of stock. The world is ending?

[Ed.Kloonk]

You're not listening. I explained to you the historical economic reason in regards to HK's involvement to the current supply problems, and is on-topic.

Your responses are, frankly, not.

[bdunham7]

They were given some 20 years to do so already. They had their 20 years of Western democracy, and they want more.

Hmmmm.  Perhaps the democracy wasn't so terrible?

The West is not civilized enough to understand any language but force.

Yes, "true power comes from the barrel of a gun" is the phrase, isn't it? 

[Ed.Kloonk]

Hmmmm.  Perhaps the democracy wasn't so terrible?

Enlighten me.

Off topic.

[SilverSolder]

If you go far enough back, anyone who is not from Africa is a descendant of an invader!   ...  so where does that get us...

Being proud of your country is one thing, but pig headed nationalism has got us all in big trouble in the past...  will we ever learn?

[SilverSolder]

If you go far enough back, anyone who is not from Africa is a descendant of an invader!   ...  so where does that get us...

Problem is, we invaded what we now call China probably a few thousands of years ago, not a a hundred of years or two ago, and we did it cleanly -- there are no such people called native or aboriginal in China, they are completely genocided a few thousands of years ago.

Probably absorbed into the mainstream over time (as is likely to have happened e.g. with the Neanderthals, according to some theories).

All over the world, groups dislike people that don't conform to their norms.   This extends also to other groups that don't follow the same norms as them.   They can't get past the fact that their own norms are just one of many solutions to the same problems...

[SilverSolder]

They can't get past the fact that their own norms are just one of many solutions to the same problems...

That is exactly the problem of the West, they just HAVE to change us, instead of having peace, accept and compete fairly with other systems, and as a backup plan, build enough nukes to maintain a deterrence force, and coexist happily with the others.

I don't think the real problem is actually about China at all...

As you know, the main organizing principle in the West is corporations.  As long as you allow them to turn a decent profit on activities in China, there won't be any problems, they will pay their lobbyists to make sure of it!  Things had been going well with this for several decades...   what actually changed, all of a sudden?

It seems to me that what changed, is that a lot of people in the West (particularly English speaking countries) started to notice that their standards of living were not where they expected them to be.  We can argue whether their expectations were/are realistic or not, it's a different discussion...   but when you get a lot of people feeling their lives are not going well, that they are not getting what they think is rightfully theirs....  that's when countries can get "angry" and become irrational to various extents.

This feeling became worse and more widespread after the financial crisis, after a lot of cutbacks had to be made.  -  People started blaming foreigners for their problems, and here we are.

Bottom line - relations with China probably cannot improve until a majority of people feel their own country is doing well.  It doesn't help that people keep reading about record growth in China, and how China is able to build skyscrapers and entire subdivisions overnight, and so on - it just makes them feel even worse...  generally, people handle other people's success even worse than they handle their own failures!   

The chip shortage is a symptom of the underlying tensions and loss of trust that has occurred.  If both sides really wanted to, we could probably figure out how to get some chips manufactured in a hurry...

[NorthGuy]

The chip shortage is a symptom of the underlying tensions and loss of trust that has occurred.  If both sides really wanted to, we could probably figure out how to get some chips manufactured in a hurry...

I don't think the shortages have much to do with tensions. The recent year, at least $10T has been printed out of the thin air around the world (for comparison, China accumulated roughly $1T of US Treasuries so far). This money has to go somewhere. Hence the shortages. Pure mathematics.

We can only hope that the world economy can cope with this and the situation won't spiral out of control.

[SilverSolder]

The chip shortage is a symptom of the underlying tensions and loss of trust that has occurred.  If both sides really wanted to, we could probably figure out how to get some chips manufactured in a hurry...

I don't think the shortages have much to do with tensions. The recent year, at least $10T has been printed out of the thin air around the world (for comparison, China accumulated roughly $1T of US Treasuries so far). This money has to go somewhere. Hence the shortages. Pure mathematics.

We can only hope that the world economy can cope with this and the situation won't spiral out of control.

Not sure I follow - are you saying the printed money is being used to buy chips that won't be used in actual products?

[NorthGuy]

Not sure I follow - are you saying the printed money is being used to buy chips that won't be used in actual products?

Money is used to buy. Cannot buy without money. It's called demand in economics. If the supply cannot keep up with the demand, you get shortages, price increases, these sort of things.

[SiliconWizard]

The chip shortage is a symptom of the underlying tensions and loss of trust that has occurred.  If both sides really wanted to, we could probably figure out how to get some chips manufactured in a hurry...

I don't think the shortages have much to do with tensions. The recent year, at least $10T has been printed out of the thin air around the world (for comparison, China accumulated roughly $1T of US Treasuries so far). This money has to go somewhere. Hence the shortages. Pure mathematics.

Finally some common sense in this thread. You're spot on. The rest is just blabbering.

[SilverSolder]

No matter how many trillions were printed - why would anyone buy chips unless they had a product in mind for them?

Is it that "relatively worthless" projects end up given the go-ahead, in an environment with excessive money?

[SiliconWizard]

Is it that "relatively worthless" projects end up given the go-ahead, in an environment with excessive money?

You can express it this way, although worthiness is a difficult notion to define.

But yes: whatever amount of money is in circulation, it's going to be used entirely. This is what circulating means. And the more is available, the less cautious we tend to be about its use. Especially in times when we want to "fix" negative growth by injecting money. The overall objective is to favor growth. Anything goes.

More generally speaking, the sudden abundance of resources inevitably leads to unreasonable use and uncontrolled growth. This is why the world population has exploded to almost 8 billion people, and why we have destroyed a significant number of species on Earth in a matter of a few decades. It happened because we suddenly got the resources to do it.

[NorthGuy]

No matter how many trillions were printed - why would anyone buy chips unless they had a product in mind for them?

Is it that "relatively worthless" projects end up given the go-ahead, in an environment with excessive money?

People buy all kinds of things - refrigerators, cars, bitcoin miners, remote controls, houses. So, the companies who sell all this stuff need to make more. Many of these things use chips. Consequently, the companies need to buy chips. In addition, supply chains are hindered with COVID-19 measures. Even a small increase in demand would produce shortages, but it is not small.

Not only chips are affected. Other things too. For example, I bought some 4x2x8' boards last year for about $2.50 a piece. They're $8.50 now. It's worth nothing that Canada is the major lumber exporter in the world.

People will certainly buy everything they can. If you print enough money, next time you walk into a store (any store) you will only see empty shelves.

Perhaps current shortages are not as bad as they seem. Things may go back to normal. But with money printing getting worse and worse over the years, it's only a matter of time until something hits the fan.

[Rick Law]

The electronic component market will evolve to deal with it eventually.  Different suppliers/manufacturers will survive, die, or grow.

The petroleum market evolved to a "highest bidder" market.  Every day, gasoline prices change depending on the per-barrel price that day.  An oil tanker will leave port without knowing what value the raw crude would be sold at.  Gold has been on that track for as far back as I can remember.

If more and more goods follows that direction, JIT may become a thing of the past.  Manufacturers and suppliers both will have a hard time with any long-term contract with pre-determined price.  It may become a cost-plus contract instead.

[SilverSolder]

No matter how many trillions were printed - why would anyone buy chips unless they had a product in mind for them?

Is it that "relatively worthless" projects end up given the go-ahead, in an environment with excessive money?

People buy all kinds of things - refrigerators, cars, bitcoin miners, remote controls, houses. So, the companies who sell all this stuff need to make more. Many of these things use chips. Consequently, the companies need to buy chips. In addition, supply chains are hindered with COVID-19 measures. Even a small increase in demand would produce shortages, but it is not small.

Not only chips are affected. Other things too. For example, I bought some 4x2x8' boards last year for about $2.50 a piece. They're $8.50 now. It's worth nothing that Canada is the major lumber exporter in the world.

People will certainly buy everything they can. If you print enough money, next time you walk into a store (any store) you will only see empty shelves.

Perhaps current shortages are not as bad as they seem. Things may go back to normal. But with money printing getting worse and worse over the years, it's only a matter of time until something hits the fan.

That all makes sense, except that retail sales are only just about recovering from the downturn, and auto sales still haven't recovered.  Where are the chips going??

[NorthGuy]

That all makes sense, except that retail sales are only just about recovering from the downturn, and auto sales still haven't recovered.  Where are the chips going??

US retail sales were $620B in March vs about $530B/month pre-COVID. Motor vehicles in the US were $135B compared to $105B pre-COVID.

https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

China retail sales are up roughly 20% compared to pre-COVID.

https://www.chinainternetwatch.com/30910/retail-sales/

So, the retail sales are not so bad. This isn't very meaningful because you must see around the world, include business buying, bitcoin miners etc.

[SiliconWizard]

Without surprise, sales in physical stores, except for food, have plumetted in many countries around the world, but online sales have skyrocketed.
For motor vehicles, I guess it depends on the country. In most of Europe, it's been pretty bad as far as I know. Around -20% or so.

"Retail sales" are only part of the story of course, as you noted.

[SilverSolder]

That all makes sense, except that retail sales are only just about recovering from the downturn, and auto sales still haven't recovered.  Where are the chips going??

US retail sales were $620B in March vs about $530B/month pre-COVID. Motor vehicles in the US were $135B compared to $105B pre-COVID.

https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

China retail sales are up roughly 20% compared to pre-COVID.

https://www.chinainternetwatch.com/30910/retail-sales/

So, the retail sales are not so bad. This isn't very meaningful because you must see around the world, include business buying, bitcoin miners etc.

And we need to factor in that electronics sales are apparently pulling up the retail numbers, so it seems demand is actually at very high levels...

Shame about the supply! 

[bdunham7]

US retail sales were $620B in March vs about $530B/month pre-COVID. Motor vehicles in the US were $135B compared to $105B pre-COVID.
So, the retail sales are not so bad. This isn't very meaningful because you must see around the world, include business buying, bitcoin miners etc.

I have to wonder how much of that increase is due to inflated prices.  There have been significant actual increases in many (but not all) things, including motor vehicles--used and new.  A lot of that shows up as withdrawal of incentives and discounts rather than MSRP increases.  Instead of "we're ready to deal" and a lot stuffed with cars and trucks, you have a half eaten lot of leftovers and "the price is on the window".  Low interest and free money make that less painful to the consumer until things get so outrageous that they can't afford it even with an 8 year loan at 0% interest.  And then there's rent and house prices...

[bdunham7]

That is exactly the problem of the West, they just HAVE to change us, instead of having peace, accept and compete fairly with other systems, and as a backup plan, build enough nukes to maintain a deterrence force, and coexist happily with the others.

No, we want to liberate you from the oppression!  Like Iraq.   

[SilverSolder]

US retail sales were $620B in March vs about $530B/month pre-COVID. Motor vehicles in the US were $135B compared to $105B pre-COVID.
So, the retail sales are not so bad. This isn't very meaningful because you must see around the world, include business buying, bitcoin miners etc.

I have to wonder how much of that increase is due to inflated prices.  There have been significant actual increases in many (but not all) things, including motor vehicles--used and new.  A lot of that shows up as withdrawal of incentives and discounts rather than MSRP increases.  Instead of "we're ready to deal" and a lot stuffed with cars and trucks, you have a half eaten lot of leftovers and "the price is on the window".  Low interest and free money make that less painful to the consumer until things get so outrageous that they can't afford it even with an 8 year loan at 0% interest.  And then there's rent and house prices...

Most people's spending is pretty much literally what the bank will let them get away with!

The average price of a new car surpassed $38K in 2021...  it was $35K not long ago, so I think there is something to your inflation theory...

[Bassman59]

No, we want to liberate you from the oppression!  Like Iraq.   

Go fuck yourself, and relay these words to your government. We are a sovereign nationalist nation, we do not need foreigners to rule on our land.

You may have missed the irony, @Blueskull!

He's a very angry boy. I suppose that's how they're indoctrinated.

[SilverSolder]

Well, at least you don't have a low testosterone problem! 

I used to be angry when I was young.  Then I realized the stuff that made me angry wasn't really that important after all.  Just a phase.

[Halcyon]

I honestly don't think "the west" give a crap what China does, as long as they remain within their own borders and don't exceed their authority. Once China attempts to start engaging in dodgy behaviour across international lines, that's when someone has to step in and say "enough is enough". China continually go on about how they have the right to protect their borders, customs and way of life and whilst that's true, so does every other country. Western government have no interest in treading on the toes of China in their own country. If they want to spy on their own citizens, go for it, but keep that shit there.
 
The banning of Huawei infrastructure in Australia for example was absolutely the right move. Without giving away specifics, Huawei can claim there are no backdoors and they aren't controlled by the Chinese government all they like, but they are wasting their breath. China has demonstrated time and time again that they can't be trusted to do anything unless it benefits them in some way.

[Siwastaja]

Is it that "relatively worthless" projects end up given the go-ahead, in an environment with excessive money?

Kinda; the Nandblog guy who now has a different username gave a good example earlier.

Car manufacturers now put gazillion of microcontrollers and other components in a car for no real reason whatsoever, simply because they can. As a side effect, they can hire a large left door microcontroller software architecture ecosystem team, and another right door microcontroller communication with left door architecture team, which is of course a good thing for the employment of mediocre engineers with no important skills but a lot of "people skills" and ability to follow the trends.

The result is an expensive and unreliable car they can't even produce due to problems with component supply chain.

Also software-bricking (by "updates" that slow down the CPU) otherwise perfectly usable consumer gear to force buying new is a great example of technically unnecessary usage of components.