Out of stock. The world is ending?

[luiHS]

What is happening? For some time it has been impossible to get accelerometers manufactured by ST, nor the one I was using for the design of a client, nor any other reference. Put in contact with ST they do not answer clearly what is the reason and when there will be stock again

TFT screens have doubled in price and are also difficult to buy even at outrageous prices.

Today new surprise, the NXP MK66 microcontrollers that I use in almost all my designs, sold out everywhere, even the Chinese ones. I will have to migrate everything earlier than expected, to the RT1024 or RT1064, and that before the stock also runs out.

But what the hell is happening? It is clear that it is related to the pandemic, but I do not understand why that has to affect the production of electronic components.

[ataradov]

A few fab fires here and there did not help. The world is not ending, this kind of thing happens every once in a while. Small fish can do nothing but wait until big fish gets their parts.

[techman-001]

A few fab fires here and there did not help. The world is not ending, this kind of thing happens every once in a while. Small fish can do nothing but wait until big fish gets their parts.

And the Dinosaurs were once overheard to say " it's just another asteroid strike up at Yucatan, hardly the end of the world! "

I just checked arrow.com and they have 6 models of STM32F0xx in stock, as opposed to the *hundreds* they normally have, which is quite amazing. Check the picture I just took of in-stock levels.

[CatalinaWOW]

Those who have studied numerical methods will recognize this as yet another difference of large numbers problem.  There is an absolutely tremendous difference between a supply of fifty million chips and a demand for fifty million, one hundred thousand.  Even though the imbalance between supply and demand is only 0.2 percent that 100,000 chip shortage can empty distributors in a flash.  It is not as if chips are not being made, just that the balance between supply and demand is just slightly off.

As Ataradov says, this will settle out over time.

[ataradov]

Shortage of all parts happens because A LOT of companies actually estimate that changing the design to a different part that is in stock at that time is worth it. So all parts disappear seemingly at the same time. Different memory and pin count variants go first. Some more obscure parts that are not close to other parts hang on.

And of course they buy up the stock before they make the change.

[luiHS]

Well, I'm going to have to change all my designs. In the Chinese the MK66 to 17 USD and 40.5 USD, which before the pandemic cost 6.5 USD.

I am already preparing the changes to migrate to RT1024 or RT1064, I do not think it is very complicated, I continue with NXP and MCUXpresso. And now I will make my first PCB with BGA, I had it planned for the near future, but now I have no choice but to do it now and quickly or I will not be able to supply all the orders I have from customers.

I was also looking at some STM32, and the same thing happens, without stock in many references. I needed the STM32H747 and totally out of stock, I may be able to use the STM32H757, I have ordered some to test them.

What despair, this seems the end of the known civilization, everything begins to be scarce and prices rise exorbitantly. It looks like a Netflix fiction series.

[bdunham7]

I see this all the time and I'm not talking about MCUs, but rather very ordinary simple parts.  Very low to no stock on high volume parts, availability dates months out.  Like this Darlington array.  I got enough for my prototypes, but if I were going to make a run of 1000 I'd be screwed.

[KE5FX]

What's happening in the supply chain is more or less apocalyptic.  If you're just now noticing it... 

Major automakers don't shut down for anything, for instance... but they're shutting down for this.

[techman-001]

The STM32F050C4T6A at arrow.com in my picture for $1.6867 ea, the one with a local stock of 578 .... now all gone, half an hour later, along with the part listing.

Arrow now have 152x *total* STMF0xx in stock and *no* indication of new stock times.

I find this very unusual, personally, given I have watched stock levels at various suppliers since 2014.

[techman-001]

What's happening in the supply chain is more or less apocalyptic.  If you're just now noticing it... 

Major automakers don't shut down for anything, for instance... but they're shutting down for this.

GM's affected 10,000 workers, now on reduced salary where hourly workers represented by a union “will receive about 75 percent of their compensation through a combination of unemployment and supplemental benefits,”

Perhaps they should have explained to their workers ...
"This is yet another difference of large numbers problem ... and will settle out over time, so just explain that to your landlords and family and if they don't understand, enroll them in a numerical methods degree" ?

[Siwastaja]

Don't do panic redesigns now. Others are doing the same panic redesigns and obviously ending up with the same replacements you do, and the situation with those replacement parts may not be much better, so they are out of stock soon. On the other hand, the original parts will be available.

Try to wait through the crisis. It will solve itself.

Try to learn from your mistake so that the next time, once you have locked down BOM, immediately buy enough stock so you can satisfy your customer needs. Of course, this always isn't possible, but often is.

[westfw]

It's almost like there was some sort of global catastrophe or something!

I'm going to have to change all my designs.

you think that will help, do you?  That your new chip choice will stay available for longer than it takes your old chip choice to recover?  Good luck with that.  :-(

[techman-001]

I see this all the time and I'm not talking about MCUs, but rather very ordinary simple parts.  Very low to no stock on high volume parts, availability dates months out.  Like this Darlington array.  I got enough for my prototypes, but if I were going to make a run of 1000 I'd be screwed.

(Attachment Link)

I had no idea there would be this shortage when I bought 40x ULN2003APWR in Jan 2021 but luckily arrow still have hundreds of thousands of ULN2003D1013TR and ULN2003ADR2G plus small stocks of others.

https://www.arrow.com/en/products/search?cat=&q=+ULN2003&r=true

[JPortici]

Our contractor started giving hints last october when manufacturers and distributors began writing odd emails.
Luckily we decided to stock critical parts ourselves because even if we said to contractor "go ahead buy 1000 of X" by the time they actually authorized the purchase (1-3 hours later) the stock would have vanished so here we are, we have all critical parts for our designs until EOY, unless we recive more unexpected big orders.

Too bad that manufacturers are already saying "new parts available from june '22" 

What we didn't anticipate is that we would be in the same situation with cable harnesses, we can't get specific connectors, october is the very least even if we go ahead and clone them. We will have tons of boards but unusable because no connectors.

[NorthGuy]

It's almost like there was some sort of global catastrophe or something!

I don't know if this is the beginning of hyperinflation, but if there was hyperinflation, that's how it would start.

[mikerj]

What's happening in the supply chain is more or less apocalyptic.  If you're just now noticing it... 

Major automakers don't shut down for anything, for instance... but they're shutting down for this.

GM's affected 10,000 workers, now on reduced salary where hourly workers represented by a union “will receive about 75 percent of their compensation through a combination of unemployment and supplemental benefits,”

Perhaps they should have explained to their workers ...
"This is yet another difference of large numbers problem ... and will settle out over time, so just explain that to your landlords and family and if they don't understand, enroll them in a numerical methods degree" ?

A little unreasonable to blame auto manufacturers for this shortage don't you think?

[madires]

The big manufacturers seem to be on a stockpiling frenzy, like some households bought as much toilet paper, pasta and flour as possible when COVID19 started to spread.

[woofy]

I don't know if this is the beginning of hyperinflation, but if there was hyperinflation, that's how it would start.

No kidding, we were recently quoted $35 each for BN055 at the full reel level. Another supplier quoted 2 year lead time.
Bosch have no idea when they will get more chips, which are manufactured by ST.

[bdunham7]

I don't know if this is the beginning of hyperinflation, but if there was hyperinflation, that's how it would start.

During the runup to the previous financial crisis, rhodium went to $10,000/oz, in part due to demand and in part due to GM hoarding a billion dollars worth.

Recently it spiked to $10,000 again, from a 'normal' price of $500/oz or so, then it fell again and then....

[bdunham7]

On the other hand, the original parts will be available.

Hopefully, although I think that there will be at least some cases where they won't ever be seen again. 

Try to learn from your mistake so that the next time, once you have locked down BOM, immediately buy enough stock so you can satisfy your customer needs. Of course, this always isn't possible, but often is.

That's a 180 degree pivot from how the majority of lean-operating manufacturers were operated by their bean counting CFOs.  And although I agree, I'll bet that this pivot is at least partly responsible for some of the current shortages.

[CatalinaWOW]

When times are good JIT is the most efficient way to manufacture.  It sucks in unsettled times.  There is lots of evidence, including in this thread,  that human memory for unsettled times is only a few years.  For some fairly good reasons.  The most recent run of good times lasted for roughly a decade, and conceivably could resume in less than a year.  Anyone shunning JIT in that interval had real problems competing on cost.

[Siwastaja]

JIT may be good in many industries but electronic manufacturing, nah, unless you are a very big player and have very good direct contracts with the manufacturers so they guarantee you certain delivery dates.

For small to medium sized players, even during good times, you have to plan ahead and buy parts to last for the manufacturer standard lead time which is very typically half a year; for some parts, it's a whole year and for some, just a quarter.

If you assume you can get parts quicker than manufacturer standard lead time, you are pushing your luck, you don't need a big crisis to have to wait for months. Yes, JIT often works out if we ignore component crises every 3 years, but it's a risk even during good times and the management needs to understand it being a risk.

Still remember ceramic cap crisis 3 years ago? It pretty much self-corrected in just 3-4 months, and was manageable with some redneck creativity ("oh, just replace 100nF 0603 with 56nF 0402, it will fit and work"). Now is worse.

[maxkunes]

I am already preparing the changes to migrate to RT1024 or RT1064, I do not think it is very complicated, I continue with NXP and MCUXpresso. And now I will make my first PCB with BGA, I had it planned for the near future, but now I have no choice but to do it now and quickly or I will not be able to supply all the orders I have from customers.

Not sure I would do that as you pretty much won't be able to get 1024 or 1064s right now. Also note that the only 1064s in stock are the older rev that NXP stopped manufacturing. The new chips won't be in stock till late this year at best.

We had to go and buy the last 1064s some polish company had.

If you are going to switch to a new part, you should do it for cost or performance gain. Every chip is having shortage issues right now.

[Siwastaja]

Yes, during general component shortage affecting most parts, doing engineering changes should require more rigorous consideration than normally, yet people are doing the opposite, changing parts like underwear based on a quick instinct feeling that the alternative part might be better available.

This works if you can make your cycle quick, finish the new BOM first, then order all parts for the next year of expected sales, then finalize the design and order PCBA. Otherwise, your "replacements" go out of stock while you simulate and lay the PCB out or communicate with the CM.

[bdunham7]

When times are good JIT is the most efficient way to manufacture.

For electronics, JIT is mainly a capital allocation issue with maybe a taxation aspect thrown in.  CFOs like to perform continuous liposuction on their operations, vacuuming all the fat out.  However, that system only works if you are large enough--and perhaps even profitable enough--that your individual business matters to the producers.  If you are smaller, you have to be aware of how much risk you have from supply issues, even in good times.  Nowadays even companies like General Motors are finding that their business isn't as important as they thought and they now have to resort to hiring politicians to advocate for them.  In a different field, I used to maintain an inventory based on what was less available as opposed to what a I used the most, with some bargain-hunting opportunism thrown in. 

It sucks in unsettled times.  There is lots of evidence, including in this thread,  that human memory for unsettled times is only a few years.

Well it seems obvious that it is less than a decade, since everyone has completely forgotten the previous two financial crises or at least imagines that their like can ever happen again.  Both the inland SoCal housing prices and the S&P 500 are reflecting new levels of absurdity that can only be supported by ludicrously low interest rates--and those are finally starting to go up despite near-ZIRP.

[schmitt trigger]

“ CFOs like to perform continuous liposuction on their operations”
A very original and accurate description!


It is not only microcontrollers and FPGAs.
Certain semiconductor classes, like HV Mosfets or IGBTs, manufacturers are now quoting 52+ weeks lead time.

Also, because manufacturers are scrambling to find manufacturing capacity for higher demand devices which they can sell at a premium, for its  slow moving devices are either phasing out variants (I. E. Discontinuing diverse package variants with the exception of a single one), or declaring them obsolete with a very short LTB window.

As other old timers here have mentioned: been there, done that. We somehow survived.
But this time the crisis appears that it will become wider and deeper.

Kind of what has happened with the Covid virus.

[SiliconWizard]

The world may not be ending yet, but what has been happening now for over a year is certainly unprecedented in recent history.

[KE5FX]

As other old timers here have mentioned: been there, done that. We somehow survived.
But this time the crisis appears that it will become wider and deeper.

My concern is that the old timers are wrong this time.  I'm not new to the business myself.  We have not "been here," at least not since World War II, and we have not "done this."  There is an unprecedented confluence of factors at work, ranging from economic to political to environmental, and there are a minuscule number of fabs and facilities available to deal with exploding worldwide demand for semiconductors. 

Meanwhile, Trump thumps his chest at the Chinese, incentivizing the development of wasteful redundant supply chains and production capacity that will be inaccessible to most of the world.  The Texans can't keep the power turned on, and the Californians don't have much room to criticize the Texans.  In the EU, the semiconductor equipment manufacturers have orders they can't fill due to lack of, well, semiconductors.  And in Taiwan, they are having to decide whether they use water to make chips or grow food.

This is going to take a while to shake out. 

[Circlotron]

And in Taiwan, they are having to decide whether they use water to make chips or grow food.

Add to that, in some circles, the talk of invasion.

[luiHS]

How a Chip Shortage Snarled Everything From Phones to Cars
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-semiconductors-chips-shortage/

[brucehoult]

Some of us in places such as Australia and New Zealand are happy to send Taiwan as much food as they want to take!

[bdunham7]

Western existence

What is 'western existence'? 

[CatalinaWOW]

Add to that, in some circles, the talk of invasion.

Western existence in any part we call China must be eradicated. It's not called invasion, it's called unification.

I can't speak to the justice of any action China takes in Taiwan.  Nor does it matter whether you call it invasion or unification.  If force is used in the implementation it will cause massive disruption, both locally and around the globe.  Maybe in the long run it is the right thing to do.  History from a couple of hundred years from now will have an opinion on this.  No one can see clearly enough now to say what good or bad will come of such action.   But I repeat, it will be horrible for world trade.  If a single ship getting stuck in the Suez causes as much havoc as has been seen, think of what a two week shutdown of all Taiwan electronic component production would mean.  And two weeks is actually a best case scenario in a forced unification even assuming no resistance and no outside of China interference.

[maxwell3e10]

If we learned anything from recent events is the profound lack of foresight among politicians and industry leaders. The concentration in the manufacturing of medical supplies and electronic components had been discussed for years but hardly ever addressed.  So one can certainly expect much worse disruptions following any future world instabilities.

[tszaboo]

A little unreasonable to blame auto manufacturers for this shortage don't you think?

They are partially to blame. They started doing things like individually driven LED strips on the inside of the car. Why is there an LED strip in the first place is beyond me, its awful ugly. There are buttons that are directly connected to CAN. A button, with an MCU and a CAN transceiver instead of wiring it to the nearest ECU. And suddenly you need several times the silicon to make a car.

Western existence

What is 'western existence'? 

You really have to troll him this much? Look at the wall of text rumbling...

[JPortici]

A little unreasonable to blame auto manufacturers for this shortage don't you think?

They are partially to blame. They started doing things like individually driven LED strips on the inside of the car. Why is there an LED strip in the first place is beyond me, its awful ugly. There are buttons that are directly connected to CAN. A button, with an MCU and a CAN transceiver instead of wiring it to the nearest ECU. And suddenly you need several times the silicon to make a car.

but then now you have the Front Left Door Team, the Widshield Team.. more EEs employed
Nothing new for certain manufacturers, that have been using 32bit+CAN for literally anything for decades
Then i think about how the buttons in my old fiat punto were handled. Even in the same block you could have at least 4 different methods:
Presence/Absence of signal at frequency X
PWM
Analog (5V means none pressed, level means combination of pressed)
Plain Digital

There is advantage in having an ECU for litterally anything which is diagnostic*, but some of the things are indeed ridiculous and driving up cost for no reason. Like internal led strip with adaptive level and color. No thanks, i want DARK and 4000€ off

*I am interfacing to an exhaust valve that evolved over time from pneumatic, then pneumatic controlled by solenoid, then electornic controlled by PWM but only open/close, then controlled by PWM variable opening, now it's LIN. one PID returns a frame of data containing istantaneout voltage/current at the motor, operating flags, target and actual position, which IMHO is rather cool. Could have been many wires or a dedicated ECU, now it's everything in the valve. Multiple valves don't require more wires

[CatalinaWOW]

And two weeks is actually a best case scenario in a forced unification even assuming no resistance and no outside of China interference.

It will be longer than two weeks. It will be forever. The only reason China has left Taiwan as is is because we want to get Western technology in through it. If Taiwan is a part controlled under the CCP, there is zero reason why the US would support it.

I blame Trump for this. Before Trump's reign, there was a harmonious balance where China takes advantage of Western technology through Taiwan, and US companies take advantage of the huge market of China through Taiwan, and Taiwan sits in between, benefited by both, all at the cost of the US losing its technological and potential military advantage to China.

Since capitalists can lobby the government in the US, China can persuade US companies enough to keep the scheme going by opening up some market. And don't worry about the "image", China and US companies can together fake it so it looks like China is changing so politically the US government was looking well in spreading ideology.

If Trump stayed quiet about all of this and behaved like his predecessors, there would not be any drama. US companies will keep gaining Chinese market, China will keep getting the latest Western technology, Taiwan will keep doing its man in the middle job, and US government will keep looking good as China is perceived to be changing.

Trump wanted to plug the hole that leaks technology to China, at the cost of US tech giants, China and Taiwan, all of them, hence the drama in the recent years. This guy knew nothing about maintaining such a delicate balance, and as a result all heaven broke loose.

What this overly patriotic orange fur ball did could bring the world, at least the technology world, to deep disaster.

The two weeks I talked about was the disruption in Taiwan production.  Which presumably hurts China even if China chooses not to export.  If China does choose that it obviously hurts the rest of the world.

Forever is a long time.  China's day in the sun will also end.  Maybe hundreds of years.

[bdunham7]

WW3 doomsday scenarios notwithstanding, is it possible that part of the 'shortage' issue is high demand?  I mean much more than usual.  Mouser hasn't yet shipped my April 9th order and they cite "Covid prevention measures and peak volume" as reasons for delay.  Are people panic buying the shelves bare?

[KE5FX]

Yes, it's demand in a nutshell.  Everybody expected demand to fall off a cliff when the COVID lockdowns hit.  Instead, the trend went in the other direction.   Lots of consumers sitting at home with nothing else to do but spend money. 

The thing about JIT is, it's the greatest supply-management paradigm in the known universe, right up until you guess wrong about what you're going to need and when you're going to need it.  Then it's the worst.

[SilverSolder]

A little unreasonable to blame auto manufacturers for this shortage don't you think?

They are partially to blame. They started doing things like individually driven LED strips on the inside of the car. Why is there an LED strip in the first place is beyond me, its awful ugly. There are buttons that are directly connected to CAN. A button, with an MCU and a CAN transceiver instead of wiring it to the nearest ECU. And suddenly you need several times the silicon to make a car.

but then now you have the Front Left Door Team, the Widshield Team.. more EEs employed
Nothing new for certain manufacturers, that have been using 32bit+CAN for literally anything for decades
Then i think about how the buttons in my old fiat punto were handled. Even in the same block you could have at least 4 different methods:
Presence/Absence of signal at frequency X
PWM
Analog (5V means none pressed, level means combination of pressed)
Plain Digital

There is advantage in having an ECU for litterally anything which is diagnostic*, but some of the things are indeed ridiculous and driving up cost for no reason. Like internal led strip with adaptive level and color. No thanks, i want DARK and 4000€ off

*I am interfacing to an exhaust valve that evolved over time from pneumatic, then pneumatic controlled by solenoid, then electornic controlled by PWM but only open/close, then controlled by PWM variable opening, now it's LIN. one PID returns a frame of data containing istantaneout voltage/current at the motor, operating flags, target and actual position, which IMHO is rather cool. Could have been many wires or a dedicated ECU, now it's everything in the valve. Multiple valves don't require more wires

Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

[SilverSolder]

[...]
Forever is a long time.  China's day in the sun will also end.  Maybe hundreds of years.

The Roman empire is still with us...  it just morphed into a whole bunch of independent states that is now thought of as Europe! 

China has always been a big player in Asia, and that will remain true barring disasters.

The USA will remain a major power in the world (as long as we don't get too many more Trumps...)

We are all better off by cooperating...   E.g. we could colonize Mars or something really big, that would require the output of all the world to do properly...

[wraper]

The USA will remain a major power in the world (as long as we don't get too many more Trumps...)

https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/547599-biden-is-thinking-about-building-that-wall-and-thats-a-good-thing
Trump wall = bad. Biden wall = good.

[brucehoult]

Forever is a long time.  China's day in the sun will also end.  Maybe hundreds of years.

Much less.

Remember how worried we all were about Japan when they switched from making "jap crap" in the 60s to the best quality ... everything ... by 1980? They were going to own the world!

Well, no. They got richer until their salaries and costs were the same as Europe&USA and then they couldn't automatically out-compete any more.

The same has happened -- or is clearly well into the process -- with Korea, Vietnam, Thailand.

China is bigger, but it will happen there too.

[brucehoult]

Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

- 1.8 litre engine, 139 HP, CVT transmission, 38 mpg highway
- long life LED headlights, daytime running lights, brake lights, etc
- backup camera with dynamic guides
- 6 speaker sound system with touchscreen, Apple Carplay and Android Auto
- automatic precollision braking with pedestrian detection
- lane departure alert with steering assist
- automatic high beams
- automatic road sign reading
- dynamic cruise control
- ten airbags including driver knee, front and rear side curtain
- tire pressure monitoring system

[SilverSolder]

Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

- 1.8 litre engine, 139 HP, CVT transmission, 38 mpg highway
- long life LED headlights, daytime running lights, brake lights, etc
- backup camera with dynamic guides
- 6 speaker sound system with touchscreen, Apple Carplay and Android Auto
- automatic precollision braking with pedestrian detection
- lane departure alert with steering assist
- automatic high beams
- automatic road sign reading
- dynamic cruise control
- ten airbags including driver knee, front and rear side curtain
- tire pressure monitoring system

You almost talked me into one, are you a car salesman in your day job? 

[brucehoult]

Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

- 1.8 litre engine, 139 HP, CVT transmission, 38 mpg highway
- long life LED headlights, daytime running lights, brake lights, etc
- backup camera with dynamic guides
- 6 speaker sound system with touchscreen, Apple Carplay and Android Auto
- automatic precollision braking with pedestrian detection
- lane departure alert with steering assist
- automatic high beams
- automatic road sign reading
- dynamic cruise control
- ten airbags including driver knee, front and rear side curtain
- tire pressure monitoring system

You almost talked me into one, are you a car salesman in your day job? 

No :-)  I've also never bought a car new, and probably never would.

I do like some of the modern safety features listed above. They've just become universally available in the last few years, but some older cars do have them.

I bought my current car in May last year when I returned to New Zealand after working for some years in Moscow and then San Francisco. If I don't travel again I'll probably use it for ten years at least.

- 2008 Subaru Outback, ~$6500 with 55000 miles.
- 2.5 litre turbo engine, 265 HP, 5 sp auto, ~28 mpg highway (actual), AWD
- camera-based dynamic cruise control
- precollision alert (but auto braking only if cruise is engaged)
- lane departure warning
- TPMS

No reversing camera or Airplay. Those can be added from 3rd parties if wanted.

The money saved compared to a new car buys a LOT of fuel.

[Bud]

Trump did the right thing, judging by that it touched your nerve.

[ejeffrey]

Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

This isn't said enough.  You can buy a new Corolla or Civic for only slightly more than the inflation adjusted base price of a 1981 Ford Escort (base price $5500, or $17.5k today vs. $20k for the corolla).  Even though the average person drives considerably more miles than in the 1980s the new car will last 3x as long, be incredibly reliable yet require almost no maintenance and will be dramatically safer with far lower emissions and better fuel economy even than the manual, much less the automatic which was crap.  All this translates to a cost of ownership that is probably *half* of an economy car from the 80s..  And of course comfort and convenience will be far beyond what the 80s had to offer.

The reason the average new car costs nearly $40k isn't because cars got more expensive, it is that people are buying more expensive cars -- giant SUVs with leather seats from luxury brand names with all the bells and whistles.  And to some extent that is even rational: people are spending more time than ever in their cars, and the cars are lasting much longer.

[Rick Law]

JIT is a gamble.  Interruption is going to happen sooner or later.  The gamble is, the cost of the occasional interruptions can be covered by the savings when it is working well.

My opinion is that most executives under estimated the cost and over estimated savings.  My favorite example is Sony-Ericsson.  Yeah, JIT saved a lot, until 2011 - parts shortage, no Ericsson phone for the Christmas season.  Unable to recover from their market share lost -- no more Ericsson phones, gone, kaput, finish, ghosted.

I do however fail to understand the current lock down which caused the panic stock-piling.  Europe did not have their economy locked down during WW-II.  Britain was open during the blitz (aka The Battle of Britain), open when it was under V1 and V2 attacks.  America was open during the Spanish Flu (1907), open during the Small Pox epidemic (1775) while having a revolution against England...  I am sure there are many more such examples.

I think human-kind (or just the modern world) has turned jelly.  People just imagine they can have a totally risk free life, and turned into jelly when they are told there is risk, just a small risk, they turned into jelly -- mean while, just a year or so before, they were bungee jumping or week-end car racing.

Something is not working right.  We lost our grit.

[JPortici]

Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

This isn't said enough.  You can buy a new Corolla or Civic for only slightly more than the inflation adjusted base price of a 1981 Ford Escort (base price $5500, or $17.5k today vs. $20k for the corolla).  Even though the average person drives considerably more miles than in the 1980s the new car will last 3x as long, be incredibly reliable yet require almost no maintenance and will be dramatically safer with far lower emissions and better fuel economy even than the manual, much less the automatic which was crap.  All this translates to a cost of ownership that is probably *half* of an economy car from the 80s..  And of course comfort and convenience will be far beyond what the 80s had to offer.

The reason the average new car costs nearly $40k isn't because cars got more expensive, it is that people are buying more expensive cars -- giant SUVs with leather seats from luxury brand names with all the bells and whistles.  And to some extent that is even rational: people are spending more time than ever in their cars, and the cars are lasting much longer.

You both should come to europe and see the situation here.
- Additional emission related components with questionable benefits (tires and brakes are already polluting more than the engine at least since euro6, studies available from the EU) that drives up the cost for little practical gain are mandated by law. You also have to fill the Adblue tank now.
- Additional ADAS mandated by law (which is actually good) which will require more systems as the time goes
- Base prices inflated because incentives if you give in an older car (my old punto was valued 600euro, could have been 6000 two years later because law)
- Base prices more inflated because they want you tied in with financing, you get a big discount, which is what the base price used to be a couple of years ago, but even if you add insurance and maintenance you end up paying even more, and most cars you can't get by paying upfront
- Because of LAW car actually will last less. I got an used 2014 skoda octavia (crazy good car, way better than my girlfriend's newer golf in every aspect, from driving to maintaining of engine and cleaning interiors.) which is EURO5 and by the time it will be 10yo i won't be able to go to most cities in my country, let alone germany or france, which would be fine if public transport would be the same as milan or berlin everywhere, but we know it's not. You end up finishing payng your 84month financing plan -really, this crazy- and you have to change your car right away. or get a new one and restart financing every 3 years, and you'll never stop paying to rent something.

[Ed.Kloonk]

France is banning domestic flights of two hours or less.

That will surely affect supplies if the senders need to find other ways to courier them.

[brucehoult]

France is insane. Europe is insane.

A two hour flight is a 15 hour drive *if* there is a reasonably direct road route with good roads. Two days, for most people. That means a same-day return business trip becomes almost a whole work week.

Unless you fly private, of course, at vastly higher cost -- and still a 5 to 7 hour trip each way for a piston or small turboprop plane.

In Australia, for example, that would outlaw flights between Sydney and Adelaide.

To be fair, there probably aren't any two hour (jet) flights within France anyway. Paris to Marseille is only 1:15 and that's getting close to the extremes of the country.

[Retep]

France is insane. Europe is insane.

A two hour flight is a 15 hour drive *if* there is a reasonably direct road route with good roads. Two days, for most people. That means a same-day return business trip becomes almost a whole work week.

You are assuming that the only alternative to a plane is a car. In France you also have the option to use the train. The TGV is much faster than a car. Everything considered (check-in, security, pre-boarding time) a domestic flight in France may not be any faster than taking a trip with the TGV, in fact the TGV may very well be the faster option.

[JPortici]

France is insane. Europe is insane.

True. So many things done so people can pat themselves on the back.

[Ed.Kloonk]

France is insane. Europe is insane.

True. So many things done so people can pat themselves on the back.

Yeah. We should be grateful. The earlier suggestion was 4 hour min flight ban, not the 2 that has been imposed.

At least they had the good sense to slaughter the goose slowly.

[brucehoult]

France is insane. Europe is insane.

A two hour flight is a 15 hour drive *if* there is a reasonably direct road route with good roads. Two days, for most people. That means a same-day return business trip becomes almost a whole work week.

You are assuming that the only alternative to a plane is a car. In France you also have the option to use the train. The TGV is much faster than a car. Everything considered (check-in, security, pre-boarding time) a domestic flight in France may not be any faster than taking a trip with the TGV, in fact the TGV may very well be the faster option.

Sometimes, sure. But TGV doesn't go to every town that would have an airport. For example, I think it doesn't yet go to Toulouse. And even if if goes to both your origin and destination the route can be inconvenient. For example, to go from Bordeaux to Marseille you need to first go to Paris. That probably triples the distance compared to a direct route.

Let's see if I can check.

Flight Bordeaux to Marseille: 1:05 (Air France), 1:10 9(Ryanair, EasyJet). $34 on Ryanair.

Driving Bordeaux to Marseille: 6:16, 645 km

TGV
Bordeaux to Paris Montparnasse: around 2:10. It's now noon. Next train is 13:59-16:41
Paris Lyon to Marseille: 18:39-21:57.
Total trip time 7:58

As it happens, you can take a regular non-TGV train direct from Bordeaux to Marseille in about 6:10, covering 504 km at about 80 km/h average speed.

Driving is definitely very competitive against either regular train or TGV, especially if your actual origin and destination are not next door to the railway stations.

[bateau020]

But TGV doesn't go to every town that would have an airport.

The same goes for the flights. How about the famous stops at "michelin airport" (Clermont-Ferrand) if you wanted to fly a slightly non standard route?
And don't underestimate the time lost going to, and waiting time at the airport, especially since 9/11. On top of that, there are many more train stations than airports.
Before Covid I was a moderately frequent flyer: about 50 flights per year, but I almost never took the plane for in-france travel. Just not worth it. Train was sometimes slightly longer, but at least you could work, and more importantly, be ONLINE most of the trip. GSM Coverage used to be bad a couple of years ago, but it has really improved. Never succeeded in setting up a stable and fast VPN while in a plane. Might come though.

But whoa, hugely off topic here.

[tszaboo]

France is insane. Europe is insane.

A two hour flight is a 15 hour drive *if* there is a reasonably direct road route with good roads. Two days, for most people. That means a same-day return business trip becomes almost a whole work week.

You are assuming that the only alternative to a plane is a car. In France you also have the option to use the train. The TGV is much faster than a car. Everything considered (check-in, security, pre-boarding time) a domestic flight in France may not be any faster than taking a trip with the TGV, in fact the TGV may very well be the faster option.

Trains are stupidly expensive. I could buy 2 hour flight tickets for 15 EUR two years ago. A ticket from Amsterdam to Brussels ( 2 hours, 200KM) is 39 EUR the cheapest. It's not going to be any better, because railway companies have practically zero incentive to get more passengers.

A 747-800 uses less than 2KG fuel per passenger per 100KM. You need a Toyota Prius with 2-3 people to be more economic than the plane.

France is clearly wrong here. The future is more airports, more aircrafts, smaller aircrafts, turboprop planes and going forward, not backwards. Why would you ever take a bus if you could fly?

[SilverSolder]

[...] Why would you ever take a bus if you could fly?

If you are only going one stop?  :-)

The big problem with flying is the hassle at the airport.  Back in the bad old days, you could literally arrive at the airport 30 minutes before the flight and still make the plane.  Today they tell you to be there 2 hours in advance, in some cases...   

[phil from seattle]

As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)

[SilverSolder]

As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)

"Unification", as in the "United" States?  - it took a civil war to do that, if I remember my history correctly...

Homo Sapiens is a complex species!

[madires]

Huawei blames US for global chip supply crunch: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Huawei-crackdown/Huawei-blames-US-for-global-chip-supply-crunch

[Bud]

Trump did the right thing

..
This idiot hurt those elite members of the American society, for pathetic jobs of those pathetic blue collar workers who can't compete without trade bars, merely belonging to the basket of deplorables.

"If you can't beat them, ad hominem" -  your words?

[Bassman59]

As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)

"Unification", as in the "United" States?  - it took a civil war to do that, if I remember my history correctly...

You don't.

[Retep]

You are assuming that the only alternative to a plane is a car. In France you also have the option to use the train. The TGV is much faster than a car. Everything considered (check-in, security, pre-boarding time) a domestic flight in France may not be any faster than taking a trip with the TGV, in fact the TGV may very well be the faster option.

Trains are stupidly expensive. I could buy 2 hour flight tickets for 15 EUR two years ago. A ticket from Amsterdam to Brussels ( 2 hours, 200KM) is 39 EUR the cheapest. It's not going to be any better, because railway companies have practically zero incentive to get more passengers.

There are many variables that affect the total cost (which includes traveling to- and from the airport or train station) such as where you depart from and your destination and date/time. Sometimes a flight is cheaper, sometimes the train.

A 747-800 uses less than 2KG fuel per passenger per 100KM. You need a Toyota Prius with 2-3 people to be more economic than the plane.

That kind of per passenger fuel consumption is only that low when a 747-800 is well filled with passengers. For short domestic flights typically they don't use a 747-800 (or other aircraft with comparable capacity), can you guess why?

Comparing a 747-800 with a Toyota Prius is rather silly, considering that routes for which a 747-800 is a logical choice a Toyota Prius is not an realistic alternative and vise versa.

France is clearly wrong here. The future is more airports, more aircrafts, smaller aircrafts, turboprop planes and going forward, not backwards. Why would you ever take a bus if you could fly?

Maybe because a bus is for short trips faster, cheaper and/or more convenient (BTW a train is not a bus, those are quite different modes of transportation). Or would you take a plane for a 50 km trip?  Traveling to- and from the airports would probably take more time for most people. Add to that the time and inconvenience of security checks, check-in...etc. and the plane is not all that attractive for short distances. And all that is assuming you can get airports that close together - economics, noise regulations and safety concerns may make your dream rather infeasible.

The past decade I have traveled more by airplane than by train or bus, but the reason for doing so is mainly because the nature of these (long distance) trips.
The best mode of transportation depends on the distance traveled and the transportation infrastructure. For short distances a car or bus is usually the best option. For medium distances the choice is between a (high-speed) train or plane. For intercontinental trips an airplane is the only realistic choice.

In case of France the TGV can be a reasonable alternative for a domestic flight when you consider the door-to-door travel time. Considering the CO2 emission targets most countries committed to, and considering that in France most electricity is generated by nuclear power stations, it doesn't seem to be totally insane for them to promote the train at the expense of short flights. However the biggest downside I see is that by forbidding short flights it takes away competition from the train, which almost inevitably leads to higher prices and poorer service.

[SilverSolder]

[...]
You almost talked me into one, are you a car salesman in your day job? 

No :-)  I've also never bought a car new, and probably never would.

I do like some of the modern safety features listed above. They've just become universally available in the last few years, but some older cars do have them.

I bought my current car in May last year when I returned to New Zealand after working for some years in Moscow and then San Francisco. If I don't travel again I'll probably use it for ten years at least.

- 2008 Subaru Outback, ~$6500 with 55000 miles.
- 2.5 litre turbo engine, 265 HP, 5 sp auto, ~28 mpg highway (actual), AWD
- camera-based dynamic cruise control
- precollision alert (but auto braking only if cruise is engaged)
- lane departure warning
- TPMS

No reversing camera or Airplay. Those can be added from 3rd parties if wanted.

The money saved compared to a new car buys a LOT of fuel.

I'm with you on that...  I like cars and own several of them, but they are all older models with a lot of "life experience" -  and I am paying less than a single new car payment for comparable fun!

Cars still cannot be made disposable, so they can be kept alive pretty much as long as you are willing/able to work on them.

[SilverSolder]

As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)

"Unification", as in the "United" States?  - it took a civil war to do that, if I remember my history correctly...

You don't.

Are we talking about the same civil war?   You know, the one fought between northern states loyal to the Union and southern states that had seceded to form the Confederate States of America?

[Bassman59]

Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

This isn't said enough.  You can buy a new Corolla or Civic for only slightly more than the inflation adjusted base price of a 1981 Ford Escort (base price $5500, or $17.5k today vs. $20k for the corolla).  Even though the average person drives considerably more miles than in the 1980s the new car will last 3x as long, be incredibly reliable yet require almost no maintenance and will be dramatically safer with far lower emissions and better fuel economy even than the manual, much less the automatic which was crap.  All this translates to a cost of ownership that is probably *half* of an economy car from the 80s..  And of course comfort and convenience will be far beyond what the 80s had to offer.

The reason the average new car costs nearly $40k isn't because cars got more expensive, it is that people are buying more expensive cars -- giant SUVs with leather seats from luxury brand names with all the bells and whistles.  And to some extent that is even rational: people are spending more time than ever in their cars, and the cars are lasting much longer.

I always buy new cars, and I buy them rarely. I'm not one of those people who trades in a vehicle every three years, or worse, just leases a car. And I don't buy the giant SUVs.

The reasons for buying new:

1. Buying a used car means buying someone else's problems. Why is this person selling an 8-year-old car? What's wrong with it? Or, more to the point: what's wrong with it that is not apparent but will cost me $2,000 in the next couple of months?

2. There's a big lie everyone keeps telling: "a new car loses ⅓ of its value the moment you drive it off the lot." Well, maybe ... but then, why are cars advertised as "high re-sale value?" Those two assertions are at cross-purposes. Now walk into a used-car dealer and look for a 3 year old model with low mileage -- the typical lease return -- and you'll be shocked by the price. It's not a significant discount from new, and if you're borrowing, the cost of a loan for a used car is significantly more than for a new car. Dealers regularly advertise near-zero interest rates for new cars, but a used car? My local credit union offers a 5% rate for used cars. Do the math, and the total cost ends up about the same. So get the new car with the new-car warranty and the odometer at zero.

[YurkshireLad]

Your used car logic is flawed. Used cars have high resale because dealers offer you ridiculously low prices when you trade yours in for a new one and then add a huge markup. No-one should buy a used car from a dealer at the price they advertise, except in those cases where the vehicle is sold as-is and the price should be lower.

[SilverSolder]

Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

This isn't said enough.  You can buy a new Corolla or Civic for only slightly more than the inflation adjusted base price of a 1981 Ford Escort (base price $5500, or $17.5k today vs. $20k for the corolla).  Even though the average person drives considerably more miles than in the 1980s the new car will last 3x as long, be incredibly reliable yet require almost no maintenance and will be dramatically safer with far lower emissions and better fuel economy even than the manual, much less the automatic which was crap.  All this translates to a cost of ownership that is probably *half* of an economy car from the 80s..  And of course comfort and convenience will be far beyond what the 80s had to offer.

The reason the average new car costs nearly $40k isn't because cars got more expensive, it is that people are buying more expensive cars -- giant SUVs with leather seats from luxury brand names with all the bells and whistles.  And to some extent that is even rational: people are spending more time than ever in their cars, and the cars are lasting much longer.

You both should come to europe and see the situation here.
- Additional emission related components with questionable benefits (tires and brakes are already polluting more than the engine at least since euro6, studies available from the EU) that drives up the cost for little practical gain are mandated by law. You also have to fill the Adblue tank now.
- Additional ADAS mandated by law (which is actually good) which will require more systems as the time goes
- Base prices inflated because incentives if you give in an older car (my old punto was valued 600euro, could have been 6000 two years later because law)
- Base prices more inflated because they want you tied in with financing, you get a big discount, which is what the base price used to be a couple of years ago, but even if you add insurance and maintenance you end up paying even more, and most cars you can't get by paying upfront
- Because of LAW car actually will last less. I got an used 2014 skoda octavia (crazy good car, way better than my girlfriend's newer golf in every aspect, from driving to maintaining of engine and cleaning interiors.) which is EURO5 and by the time it will be 10yo i won't be able to go to most cities in my country, let alone germany or france, which would be fine if public transport would be the same as milan or berlin everywhere, but we know it's not. You end up finishing payng your 84month financing plan -really, this crazy- and you have to change your car right away. or get a new one and restart financing every 3 years, and you'll never stop paying to rent something.

This is what they want you to do - essentially, subscribe to your car.  They don't like "independent thinkers" that keep older cars running and are therefore not paying their "tax".

[snarkysparky]

Yeah, buy the car new.  Take good care of it and drive it like an old man.  It will last forever.

The trouble the car companies have is they have to design it well enough so that the teenage driver will at least get past the warranty.  Barely past..
A reasonable driver can make a car last a long time.

360k miles on my 04 rav.  Still running like a dream.  mostly ..

[CatalinaWOW]

If you are technically competent, used can be a great deal.  You buy cars that the original owner couldn't be bothered to deal with, and either couldn't find or couldn't afford someone who could locate the faults.  My best so far is a car I bought for well under half market because of a variety of niggling problems.  Which turned out to be an intermittent PCB connection and an unconnected harness.  Still driving that one nearly 200,000 miles later.  These types of things are increasingly common as cars become more and more electronically dependent.  The classic auto mechanic is out of his league in these issues.  New breed, electronically savvy mechanics are growing more common, but there still aren't enough to service all the problems out there.  My son found a similar deal, purely mechanical, on a car that wouldn't hold coolant.  A new, under $80 water pump fixed the problem. 

You can get stuck in situations like this, but too many people just throw their hands up and give up.

[phil from seattle]

As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)

"Unification", as in the "United" States?  - it took a civil war to do that, if I remember my history correctly...

Homo Sapiens is a complex species!

No, the US Civil War was about one group exiting a union.  Or, wordsmithing it, Disunion.

[SilverSolder]

Huawei blames US for global chip supply crunch: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Huawei-crackdown/Huawei-blames-US-for-global-chip-supply-crunch

he [Xu, chairman of Huawei] believes there will be companies willing to invest in chip manufacturing to satisfy the needs of Huawei and other Chinese companies while maintaining compliance with U.S. rules. 
"If it can be done ... and if our inventory level can help Huawei to last until that time, then this would be how we address the problems and the challenges we face," Xu said.

Basically, that would mean Western corporations losing the Chinese semiconductor market entirely...   followed by losing other markets when the new Chinese products are made available at a much lower cost, based on past history.

I guess there must be some intelligence behind Trump's decisions, but I am having a hard time spotting it...

[SilverSolder]

As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)

"Unification", as in the "United" States?  - it took a civil war to do that, if I remember my history correctly...

Homo Sapiens is a complex species!

No, the US Civil War was about one group exiting a union.  Or, wordsmithing it, Disunion.

We may be talking about a different civil war?   The outcome of the one I am referring to was that the secessionists were made to rejoin the Union, and in fact the result of that still stands today?

[phil from seattle]

As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)

"Unification", as in the "United" States?  - it took a civil war to do that, if I remember my history correctly...

Homo Sapiens is a complex species!

No, the US Civil War was about one group exiting a union.  Or, wordsmithing it, Disunion.

We may be talking about a different civil war?   The outcome of the one I am referring to was that the secessionists were made to rejoin the Union, and in fact the result of that still stands today?

Quibbling over timing, I guess.  And, you might be mindful of the reprehensible reason they wanted to break from the Union.

[profdc9]

One thing I do not understand is why manufacturers use so many specialized parts.  This was bound to happen sooner or later.   If so many of your parts come from single sources, and worse yet, are all manufactured by the same fab, avoiding this would be pure luck.

Marketing people at the big semiconductor firms always want to push the new hotness and are cagey about future availability.  Everyone is going to hurt now, because of the knock-on effect in so many industries for which supply and therefore sales will consequently fall.

When making small-scale projects, you almost have to use generic components, because a small business or hobbyist simply doesn't have the resources to stockpile or the clout to be prioritized over large purchasers.  GM will be bailed out by the government.  Who will help the small manufacturer?   

I personally have tried to avoid exotic parts for exactly this reason.  Why use a part that is expensive and has a single source, when lots of generic versions of parts are manufactured in China?  The big semi manufacturers don't want to be in a commodity business, and at the same time want the purchaser to assume the risk of part availability?   

For example, take the venerable STM32F103.  It is a good thing that Chinese companies are trying to produce copies.  You can always use the original STMicroelectronics one if you want.  Would I use a GD32F103 in a product?  Not if I had access to the original.  But having an alternative is better than nothing.    There are lots of 8051 processors.

For example, we have AMD and Intel.  Isn't it a good thing there are two companies you can get x64 processors from?  If AMD didn't exist, and something happened to Intel's fabs, no one would be able to buy PCs!  We would all have to move to ARM processors or something.   

We need innovation, but no one benefits when devices can't be made because of the fragility of the supply chain.  There ought to be some generic and standard components, and the big semi manufacturers should be on board with this, otherwise eventually they won't be able to sell their chips because products can't be reliably made.

[brucehoult]

[...] Why would you ever take a bus if you could fly?

If you are only going one stop?  :-)

The big problem with flying is the hassle at the airport.  Back in the bad old days, you could literally arrive at the airport 30 minutes before the flight and still make the plane.  Today they tell you to be there 2 hours in advance, in some cases...

This is not inherent in flying. It is a stupid over-reaction to a one-off event 20 years ago.

Here in New Zealand it's perfectly normal *today* to turn up at the airport even 20 minutes before a domestic jet flight and get on the plane no problem (if you don't have checked baggage, ~35 minutes if you do, as baggage drop-off ends 30 minutes before departure).

For turboprop flights there is no security at all so you can turn up even later.

If people stop flying and use trains instead then what terrorists there are will target trains instead. It's harder to run them into a building, but you can still kill a lot of people -- especially if the train is doing 300+ km/h. And then see how long before the train departure you have to turn up....

[Ed.Kloonk]

[...] Why would you ever take a bus if you could fly?

If you are only going one stop?  :-)

The big problem with flying is the hassle at the airport.  Back in the bad old days, you could literally arrive at the airport 30 minutes before the flight and still make the plane.  Today they tell you to be there 2 hours in advance, in some cases...

This is not inherent in flying. It is a stupid over-reaction to a one-off event 20 years ago.

Here in New Zealand it's perfectly normal *today* to turn up at the airport even 20 minutes before a domestic jet flight and get on the plane no problem (if you don't have checked baggage, ~35 minutes if you do, as baggage drop-off ends 30 minutes before departure).

For turboprop flights there is no security at all so you can turn up even later.

If people stop flying and use trains instead then what terrorists there are will target trains instead. It's harder to run them into a building, but you can still kill a lot of people -- especially if the train is doing 300+ km/h. And then see how long before the train departure you have to turn up....

This has already been dealt with in the States. Obama made a funny when talking up the rail system with the whole 'trains good, planes bad' rubbish. He joked that you don't have to take off your shoes when boarding a train. Wouldn't ya know it, shortly after that one of the cross-continental trains started checking shoes. Ooops.

But at the end of the day, as much as it seem we are to have our passenger jets stifled, no concrete info is available on whether the inevitable impact on package logistics is deliberate or considered a necessary casualty.

[schmitt trigger]

After the 2017 Brussels station attack, I actually feared that train stations would become the next airports.

[Ed.Kloonk]

After the 2017 Brussels station attack, I actually feared that train stations would become the next airports.

London in the '80's?

[YurkshireLad]

As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)

"Unification", as in the "United" States?  - it took a civil war to do that, if I remember my history correctly...

Homo Sapiens is a complex species!

No, the US Civil War was about one group exiting a union.  Or, wordsmithing it, Disunion.

The US Civil War was also about slavery?

[JPortici]

This is what they want you to do - essentially, subscribe to your car.  They don't like "independent thinkers" that keep older cars running and are therefore not paying their "tax".

maybe i'm just misinterpreting but the way you put it you're making me sound like some kind of conspiracy theory nut

[SilverSolder]

This is what they want you to do - essentially, subscribe to your car.  They don't like "independent thinkers" that keep older cars running and are therefore not paying their "tax".

maybe i'm just misinterpreting but the way you put it you're making me sound like some kind of conspiracy theory nut

What I meant was that all of the things you listed all point in the same direction:  that it will cost more to own a car, and they will find a way to make older cars obsolete even if they are perfectly functional.

[ejeffrey]

France is insane. Europe is insane.

A two hour flight is a 15 hour drive *if* there is a reasonably direct road route with good roads. Two days, for most people. That means a same-day return business trip becomes almost a whole work week.

My understanding is that it is not a ban on two hour flights.  It's a ban on flights that can be replaced by a two hour train, which amounts to a 40 minute flight.  Which means in reality the train is going to be faster given the airport overhead.   Nobody sensible would ever take such a flight on it's own, practically all it means is that if you fly into Paris on an international flight you won't be able to take a connecting flight to a small airport you will instead need to change to a train.

[brucehoult]

France is insane. Europe is insane.

A two hour flight is a 15 hour drive *if* there is a reasonably direct road route with good roads. Two days, for most people. That means a same-day return business trip becomes almost a whole work week.

My understanding is that it is not a ban on two hour flights.  It's a ban on flights that can be replaced by a two hour train, which amounts to a 40 minute flight.  Which means in reality the train is going to be faster given the airport overhead.   Nobody sensible would ever take such a flight on it's own, practically all it means is that if you fly into Paris on an international flight you won't be able to take a connecting flight to a small airport you will instead need to change to a train.

Aha. Reporting on this seems to have been changing / improving during the time since we started discussing it.

"The bill, which was voted in the French Parliament on 10 April, will only apply to a handful of routes, such as those between Paris and Nantes, and Lyon and Bordeaux. Connecting flights are excluded."

And it's only where a train trip of up to 2h30m is actually available. So short flights will be ok if there isn't a train.

[Microdoser]

Trump did the right thing, judging by that it touched your nerve.

That is some of the worst logic I have ever read.

"Because you are upset, their actions are correct"

By that logic, everyone you disagree with is automatically right, which is obviously rubbish.

[brucehoult]

Trump did the right thing, judging by that it touched your nerve.

That is some of the worst logic I have ever read.

"Because you are upset, their actions are correct"

By that logic, everyone you disagree with is automatically right, which is obviously rubbish.

Certainly it's not iron-clad logic.

I do sometimes subscribe to "I don't agree with everything they say, but they annoy the right people". Your Nige, for example.

[SiliconWizard]

France is insane. Europe is insane.

A two hour flight is a 15 hour drive *if* there is a reasonably direct road route with good roads. Two days, for most people. That means a same-day return business trip becomes almost a whole work week.

My understanding is that it is not a ban on two hour flights.  It's a ban on flights that can be replaced by a two hour train, which amounts to a 40 minute flight.  Which means in reality the train is going to be faster given the airport overhead.   Nobody sensible would ever take such a flight on it's own, practically all it means is that if you fly into Paris on an international flight you won't be able to take a connecting flight to a small airport you will instead need to change to a train.

Aha. Reporting on this seems to have been changing / improving during the time since we started discussing it.

"The bill, which was voted in the French Parliament on 10 April, will only apply to a handful of routes, such as those between Paris and Nantes, and Lyon and Bordeaux. Connecting flights are excluded."

And it's only where a train trip of up to 2h30m is actually available. So short flights will be ok if there isn't a train.

Yes. Not as bad as it looked. But still questionable. I have taken "short" flights for business reasons, and given that those short connections used to also have much shorter boarding times, for a typical 40 min flight - which would be a typical 400 km distance or so - you'd still save at least 1 hour compared to taking a train. If you're doing a same-day round-trip , which is also typical for this kind of use case, that's 2 hours or more in the day. Definitely something, and depending on the departure and arrival times, it may actually mean you have to stay overnight instead of getting back home the same day, even for "short" trips like this.

Those short connections were already progressively done with turboprop planes instead of jet planes, which are more efficient fuel-wise for short distances.
I'm all for giving incentives to favor trains, but *banning* short flights -  nope.

[JPortici]

This is what they want you to do - essentially, subscribe to your car.  They don't like "independent thinkers" that keep older cars running and are therefore not paying their "tax".

maybe i'm just misinterpreting but the way you put it you're making me sound like some kind of conspiracy theory nut

What I meant was that all of the things you listed all point in the same direction:  that it will cost more to own a car, and they will find a way to make older cars obsolete even if they are perfectly functional.

me misinterpreting then, sorry man

[SilverSolder]

[...]

I do sometimes subscribe to "I don't agree with everything they say, but they annoy the right people". Your Nige, for example.

Some people are better suited to being protesters/naysayers (we need those!) than actually having their views implemented as official policy...  Nigel is a perfect example of that!

[Bud]

Trump did the right thing, judging by that it touched your nerve.

That is some of the worst logic I have ever read.

"Because you are upset, their actions are correct"

By that logic, everyone you disagree with is automatically right, which is obviously rubbish.

You do not know the user blueskull's poisture on the forum very well, do you.

[Stuart Coyle]

Today silicon == toilet paper.

[Microdoser]

Trump did the right thing, judging by that it touched your nerve.

That is some of the worst logic I have ever read.

"Because you are upset, their actions are correct"

By that logic, everyone you disagree with is automatically right, which is obviously rubbish.

You do not know the user blueskull's poisture on the forum very well, do you.

I will totally admit that, and also that I did not read the post you were replying to. I will educate myself

Edit: I see what you mean

[Rick Law]

Huawei blames US for global chip supply crunch: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Huawei-crackdown/Huawei-blames-US-for-global-chip-supply-crunch

he [Xu, chairman of Huawei] believes there will be companies willing to invest in chip manufacturing to satisfy the needs of Huawei and other Chinese companies while maintaining compliance with U.S. rules. 
"If it can be done ... and if our inventory level can help Huawei to last until that time, then this would be how we address the problems and the challenges we face," Xu said.

Basically, that would mean Western corporations losing the Chinese semiconductor market entirely...   followed by losing other markets when the new Chinese products are made available at a much lower cost, based on past history.

I guess there must be some intelligence behind Trump's decisions, but I am having a hard time spotting it...

re: "I guess there must be some intelligence behind Trump's decisions, but I am having a hard time spotting it..."

From listening to Trump on TV/streaming, I gather the reasons for his action(s) was two fold:
(a) National survival: keep a design and manufacturing infrastructure within USA for vital products.
(b) Financial: buy USA when possible.  In most cases, survival issues override financial.

There are products that affects the nation's survival - as in the case of face mask during the start of the recent virus attack.  Most countries were relying on importing face mask.  Those counries no longer have control of the survival of their county - the exporting county controlled it.

Plenty of wars/battles were started for the simple reason of a country-A need X, and country-B have control of X...  Wars over access to water and food started long before written history existed.  Vital products are just that: vital, survival depends on it.    If just one part of the chain of infrastructure doesn't exist in-country or in allied countries, one can no longer make or maintain that end product in-country.

In the case of Huawei, their product is largely communication related.  How would USA work if someone else has the ON/OFF switch to our entire communication network?  Do we feel comfortable having that ON/OFF switch in someone else hand?

What I infer from listening to Trump in this topic is: In Trumps judgement, he considered those vital and doesn't want someone else to hold that ON/OFF switch.  I am in agreement with him on that choice.

[SilverSolder]

There is a very old and widely acknowledged economic theory,  called the theory of comparative advantage  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage

This explains why we are all better off by not trying to do everything ourselves (starting from you, personally, and moving on up to city, state, national, and international levels).

It is way too simplistic to try to go back to the pioneering days of making everything ourselves out of wood...   we need to make the best of our own resources, yes, but we also need to make the best of other countries' resources - that way we are all better off overall.  Basically, that means trading with them.

And this is what I think Trump failed to grasp, even if he made several points along the way that I could agree with.

[Ed.Kloonk]

The incessant Orange Man bashing is coming from legacy ink. They are so bored with nothing interesting to write about, yet the world has moved on.

 

 

[SilverSolder]

[...] both the West and the East shall close doors to each other and apply iron curtains at the boarders. [...]

This would take us back to before 1817, when the law of comparative advantage was first understood.

The problem is, of course, that this is only understood by university graduates, not, the "common man" who then becomes an easy target for Trump.

[mikerj]

I blame Trump for this. Before Trump's reign, there was a harmonious balance where China takes advantage of Western technology through Taiwan,

Why is China *still* so reliant on Western technology?  Isn't it well past time for you to break away from the "duplicate, don't innovate" mentality?

[Miti]

Trump did the right thing, judging by that it touched your nerve.

That is some of the worst logic I have ever read.

"Because you are upset, their actions are correct"

By that logic, everyone you disagree with is automatically right, which is obviously rubbish.

You do not know the user blueskull's poisture on the forum very well, do you.

I find his posts pretty much bang on. Inconvenient, but bang on.

[SilverSolder]

Trump did the right thing, judging by that it touched your nerve.

That is some of the worst logic I have ever read.

"Because you are upset, their actions are correct"

By that logic, everyone you disagree with is automatically right, which is obviously rubbish.

You do not know the user blueskull's poisture on the forum very well, do you.

I find his posts pretty much bang on. Inconvenient, but bang on.

I like seeing things from another point of view.   There are many that prefer to stick their heads in the sand, and hug a friend, instead of dealing with the world as it actually is.  It isn't good to be like that, it isn't good for you, or the economy in general!

[Rick Law]

There is a very old and widely acknowledged economic theory,  called the theory of comparative advantage  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage

This explains why we are all better off by not trying to do everything ourselves (starting from you, personally, and moving on up to city, state, national, and international levels).

It is way too simplistic to try to go back to the pioneering days of making everything ourselves out of wood...   we need to make the best of our own resources, yes, but we also need to make the best of other countries' resources - that way we are all better off overall.  Basically, that means trading with them.

And this is what I think Trump failed to grasp, even if he made several points along the way that I could agree with.

I believe you missed my point about survival there.  I bold it here:

...
From listening to Trump on TV/streaming, I gather the reasons for his action(s) was two fold:
(a) National survival: keep a design and manufacturing infrastructure within USA for vital products.
(b) Financial: buy USA when possible.  In most cases, survival issues override financial.
...

In most cases, survival issues override financial...  Financial advantage hardly matters if you are stone dead...

Imagine if you are doing youtube streaming as your way of making a living.  There are enough complains right here on this forum about youtube.

Imagine if all your income is based on youtube (thus making it vital), and suddenly for certain politically incorrect statements you made in the past, your channel is now severely limit.  Your income is now severely restricted.  With your survival now in question, it hardly matters how financially rewarding it was when it was good.

The same is true for nations.  To avoid political debate, I will use two historical example instead of more current examples.  That was history and not much to argue about them.

I. 1920's to 1930's  Good customer<Allied

China purchased most if not all its military equipment from Germany and was loaded with German advisors.  At least one city (Nanjing being best documented) got its electricity powered by Siemens equipment and supported by Siemens personnel.

Such a close economic cooperation that China's leader Chiang Kai-shek's adopted son Chiang Wei-kuo studied in the  Kriegsakademie (War Academy in Munich) and was sergeant-cadet in the 98th Jäger Regiment that went into Austria in 1938.  China was at war with Japan already at that time.

After the 1940 Tripatite Pack between Germany, Italy and Japan. Germany stop selling to China and recalled most of its personnel from China.  No more new hardware or replacements parts.

Lessons learned, I suppose - when it is vital, even buying from friends may not be a good idea.

II. 1969  Even allies can go bad

I suppose we are all aware that China relied on Russia for its military hardware and advisors in the 1950's and 1960's....

Good that the 1969 China-Russia border war was brief, just 7 months with 1 month heavy fighting.  Imagine a long war and China needed to buy replacement MIGs and tanks from Russia...

Lesson learned, even between allies, disagreement can explode into shoot wars.  So even buying it from allies may not be a good idea.


Perhaps I am the only one who is selfish...

So, what is wrong with keeping what is considered vital industries/infrastructure domestic?  I would imaging most of us would like that.  More R&D means more job opportunity.  More competition means more opportunity for better products.

[SilverSolder]

[...]
So, what is wrong with keeping what is considered vital industries/infrastructure domestic?  I would imaging most of us would like that.  More R&D means more job opportunity.  More competition means more opportunity for better products.

Nothing is wrong with that at all - everyone has to be able to stand on their own two feet, which the law of comparative advantage doesn't actually preclude!

You talk a lot about "survival", but if a nation isn't an economically viable entity in its own right, then it doesn't matter whether you wall the place off or trade with everyone... you will be broke either way.

The whole concept of international trade is based on the concept of "adults", i.e. countries that are able to stand on their own two feet, trading with each other to improve living standards beyond what is possible if both were walled off from each other.

If large sections of the population are feeling hard done by (which I think we can agree is probably the case today) and the economies of Western countries are not giving the same opportunities to today's young as they did to our parents' generation (I think a solid case can be made for that being true), it will create a lot of tensions...   and it is always easier to blame "the others" than fixing your own life...  yet this is what bad politicians have always done throughout history, there are plenty of examples.

[Warhawk]

hey admins, what about moving this thread somewhere else?

[Ed.Kloonk]

Dumpster?

[parasole]

I blame Trump for this. Before Trump's reign, there was a harmonious balance where China takes advantage of Western technology through Taiwan, and US companies take advantage of the huge market of China through Taiwan, and Taiwan sits in between, benefited by both, all at the cost of the US losing its technological and potential military advantage to China.

Interesting interpretation, is it in the interest of the US and its people? Of course no, and you know this, but you blame a leader who actually tries to do something for the country and not only for the political establishment and US companies who are mostly nominal "US companies "

Since capitalists can lobby the government in the US, China can persuade US companies enough to keep the scheme going by opening up some market. And don't worry about the "image", China and US companies can together fake it so it looks like China is changing so politically the US government was looking well in spreading ideology.

This is called corruption, and we know that most of those "US companies" are corrupted, and again, who is the beneficiary of this situation?

If Trump stayed quiet about all of this and behaved like his predecessors, there would not be any drama. US companies will keep gaining Chinese market, China will keep getting the latest Western technology, Taiwan will keep doing its man in the middle job, and US government will keep looking good as China is perceived to be changing.

Yeah, that is what most past administrations did, sure enough, US establishment and China were happy, one making money and another keep getting the latest Western technology, all at the cost of the US losing its technological and potential military advantage to China. All your words, you pinpointed them quite accurately.
But, have you ever considered the possibility of real mutually beneficial cooperation, without hidden agenda to destroy US once you are strong enough? I bet no, and I acknowledge the West powers were naive enough on this "cooperation"...

Trump wanted to plug the hole that leaks technology to China, at the cost of US tech giants, China and Taiwan, all of them, hence the drama in the recent years. This guy knew nothing about maintaining such a delicate balance, and as a result all heaven broke loose.

Of course, now all have to pay the cost, as all are so much tied up... but decoupling is needed and it will happen as the process is triggered and is on its way, regardless of the current administration will... look what happens to Australlia as China imposes a trade ban on various exports, that is when a country has too much dependence from another one, lesson well outlined by Rick Law in his post, and which mostly ignored by many countries at list until now...
If US will not protect their integrity and security then they just will be annihilated, there is no normal economical cooperation between the two, it is more like a suicidal wild dance of two superpowers...   

What this overly patriotic orange fur ball did could bring the world, at least the technology world, to deep disaster.

“You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.' - To Neville Chamberlain”
― Winston Churchill

The above quote is not about Trump, you guess who may fit better...

[techman-001]

And now back to our regular programming ...

https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/equipment-lead-times-lengthen-2021-04/

" The lead time for wire bonding machines, mainly supplied by Kulicke & Soffa of Singapore said to be 10 to 12 months.

For wafer dicing machines, led by Japan’s Disco, delivery times are up tob5 to 8 months.

IC  testing machines made by Advantest of Japan and Teradyne of the U.S., among others, have sern lead times grow “significantly"

There is also a table from Nikkei Asia stating 52 weeks for "substrate materials".

[SilverSolder]

Wow, you have to wonder who is buying all this stuff:   China, to escape American restrictions, or America, to escape Chinese comparative advantage?

[JPortici]

Or brokers of whatever nationality who bet on this happening

[Siwastaja]

Or brokers of whatever nationality who bet on this happening

Yeah, grey market opportunists make the dire situation a bit more sharp.

I.e., normally you would expect that parts start gradually running out.

Panic buying sharpens this transition.

Opportunist brokers sharpen this even more, they buy the remaining stock to sell at higher price.

We needed a certain $4 (@qty 50) chip to finish a small batch. A Hong Kong based company offered them for us for $15 ea, a hefty 275% price increase. Once we replied yes, will buy, got a new price; $92 ea, 2200% price increase. We are not that desperate, so we are just not producing. Let them sit on the parts.

[luiHS]

Opportunist brokers sharpen this even more, they buy the remaining stock to sell at higher price.

We needed a certain $4 (@qty 50) chip to finish a small batch. A Hong Kong based company offered them for us for $15 ea, a hefty 275% price increase. Once we replied yes, will buy, got a new price; $92 ea, 2200% price increase. We are not that desperate, so we are just not producing. Let them sit on the parts.

I got some stock of a microcontroller in China, with an increase of 300% of the usual cost, and with delivery times of 15 days, and there will be no more.

In addition, with other components the Chinese cheated us, some accelerometers that we bought with an increase of 400% and finally were reused and most of them are damaged (it is seen under the microscope that the pads have solder remains).

The same has happened to us with some power MOSFETs, do not work well in a design in which we use them to activate motors. With the originals (Infineon manufacturer) it works perfectly, but with those of the Chinese it resets the microcontroller. It is clear that are fakes as well as very expensive.

So now not only is the price abuse starting, but also the scam selling fake components that don't work.

[olkipukki]

Yeah, grey market opportunists make the dire situation a bit more sharp.

The cash is 'cheap' those days, and if you see components as shares traded on unregulated exchanges (aka DK, Mouser), well - you just need to pick up right ones...

[NorthGuy]

We needed a certain $4 (@qty 50) chip to finish a small batch. A Hong Kong based company offered them for us for $15 ea, a hefty 275% price increase. Once we replied yes, will buy, got a new price; $92 ea, 2200% price increase. We are not that desperate, so we are just not producing.

That's the mechanism how hyperinflation hinders production. Now the price for the things you were producing will go up too. Less production will cause more inflation, and more inflation will hinder production even more. This may spiral out of control very quickly. In the end, most companies either go bankrupt or abandon production in favour of buying and re-selling.

[madires]

... or it's just an opportunist who tries to make some quick bucks.

[DavidAlfa]

I'm doing a cooking thread next. To follow the offtopic

[Siwastaja]

We needed a certain $4 (@qty 50) chip to finish a small batch. A Hong Kong based company offered them for us for $15 ea, a hefty 275% price increase. Once we replied yes, will buy, got a new price; $92 ea, 2200% price increase. We are not that desperate, so we are just not producing.

That's the mechanism how hyperinflation hinders production. Now the price for the things you were producing will go up too. Less production will cause more inflation, and more inflation will hinder production even more. This may spiral out of control very quickly. In the end, most companies either go bankrupt or abandon production in favour of buying and re-selling.

Yes, although I still do believe the component manufacturers get their shit together and the whole crisis is best handled by waiting and avoiding panic buying. But it seems quite bad now, the big question is, will it still take 3 months, 6 months, or 9 months to start getting better?

This isn't new to anyone who has been designing for a decade or more (it was ceramic caps 3 years ago), but it certainly seems it's considerably worse this time, something I wouldn't have expected last December-January when it was becoming obvious shit is starting to really hit the fan.

My advice still is, try to wait over the crisis, although that's becoming difficult. In any case, remember that if you are going to do a quick redesign cycle using now available parts, don't assume they are available after a week. Buy enough stock for the whole redesigned batch to last next 6 months at least, only after shipping confirmation do schematic/layout/PCBA order. Not going to be easy on complex designs, or something requiring certification.

[NorthGuy]

Yes, although I still do believe the component manufacturers get their shit together and the whole crisis is best handled by waiting and avoiding panic buying. But it seems quite bad now, the big question is, will it still take 3 months, 6 months, or 9 months to start getting better?

There's a lot of uncertainty.

For example, If the price of bitcoins goes into millions, this will create huge demand for semiconductors. The miners will be able to buy semiconductors at prices which are many times higher than pre-crisis prices. Their demand is almost unlimited. To divert semiconductor production to other areas, the other buyers must pay prices which are at least comparable to what miners are willing to pay. But such an increase in prices will further strengthen the bitcoin. Nobody knows how this ends.

My advice still is, try to wait over the crisis, although that's becoming difficult. In any case, remember that if you are going to do a quick redesign cycle using now available parts, don't assume they are available after a week. Buy enough stock for the whole redesigned batch to last next 6 months at least, only after shipping confirmation do schematic/layout/PCBA order. Not going to be easy on complex designs, or something requiring certification.

I agree with that. Redesigning is not a good idea. It only adds to the uncertainty.

That said, I received an email from Mouser that an order I placed in February for a backordered part is going to ship in May. May be things are not as bad as they seem.

[harerod]

...

That said, I received an email from Mouser that an order I placed in February for a backordered part is going to ship in May. May be things are not as bad as they seem.

I would be delighted for you if it turns out that way. From recent experience the standard pattern would be another email, stating further delays.

One of my manufacturers just offered to scavenge components from scrap PCBs (older version of current product) free of charge, so they would get an order (small number of units, cost of electronics negligible to total COG).

At the same time I was told that FR4 is going to get scarce by summer. Now would be a great opportunity for an extended vacation. 

[schmitt trigger]

If one believes in the laws of supply and demand as a closed loop system, the situation will eventually reach equilibrium, albeit with significant swings before this occurs.

[floobydust]

It is a highly inelastic supply-demand curve, with a time-constant of many years, and supply concentrated in a region caught in the middle of the USA-china trade war.
Seems to be going into a stage 2 where the semi makers are exacerbating the situtation and seeing what government handouts they can get.
Polysilicon prices have doubled so PV will be also get hit.

[JPortici]

This isn't new to anyone who has been designing for a decade or more (it was ceramic caps 3 years ago), but it certainly seems it's considerably worse this time, something I wouldn't have expected last December-January when it was becoming obvious shit is starting to really hit the fan.

My advice still is, try to wait over the crisis, although that's becoming difficult. In any case, remember that if you are going to do a quick redesign cycle using now available parts, don't assume they are available after a week. Buy enough stock for the whole redesigned batch to last next 6 months at least, only after shipping confirmation do schematic/layout/PCBA order. Not going to be easy on complex designs, or something requiring certification.

I believe the problem is that currently RAW MATERIALS (and also intermediate goods) are being subject of speculation, not only chips.
Wood, paper, copper, everything. Every month we get a pamplheth with the latest increase and lead time and how it will have repercussions on current orders because they can't afford to absorb the difference anymore, bigger clients will sure get one weekly.
Family friend who works in finance informed me few weeks ago that there was a lot speculation going on on raw goods, people betting on how high prices will get, while companies which should build actual things wait in terror. i will never ceased to be amazed on how far these people will get to avoid having a real job and play with pretend money with awful real consequences*. finance sickens me**.

*yes, semi sarcasm
**not sarcasm

[SilverSolder]

It would be a lot simpler if those who can get along were able to trade - and those who prefer not to get along, take the back seat, don't trade, and STFU! 

[Ed.Kloonk]

Australia wants something to do with China practicing its lawful power in Hong Kong. If Australia never attempted to pollute China's political system and never attempted to spread Western idealism to China, none would have happened.

Except that the terms of the changeover from the British colony provided for time for Australian/Hong Kong people to move elsewhere. Your news sources there are forgetting to tell you that the govt jumped the gun.

[Ed.Kloonk]

They are welcomed to bugger off if they don't like HK. They are not welcomed to stay here and challenge the CCP. The CCP rules are simple, shut up and make money, or go bugger off. Consider this a grace. In the mainland personal wealth transfer to abroad is limited, so you don't get to bugger off even if you want to unless you leave everything behind.

But that's the problem. The residents were promised grace. However immediately after the end of the lease, laws regarding the tightening up of the transfer of wealth have encumbered so many people. 

Those residents and the nearby countries were promised by The Chinese Govt that families had plenty of time to allow their kids to finish treasury school, for example. And business owners who should have, by your standard, re-purchase factories, houses and emigrate the whole family elsewhere en-masse before 1997.

Now we are seeing this causing ramification of supply of goods because business owners are forced to leave with nothing or sell a well established business for food.

The local region understood that the Chinese Government promised to let HK keep doing what it was doing (mostly). I remember the golden-egg analogy been thrown around to make their claim plausible. This grace period was so residents could get their act together and also to prevent the spike in immigration to other countries in the remaining years of the last century.

Laws in HK suddenly changed against expectations and the Australian government and others in the region have always been trying very hard to prevent the bankruptcy by one thousand cuts of so many businesses in HK. The economic situation would be much worse if not for insisting on the slow and steady approach.

A twenty-year knock-on effect because the Chinese Govt can't do what they promised. And the easy way out now is to blame Trump.

[parasole]

Yes, for sure. The problem is however, the West has a mentality to attempt to destroy anything that has a different system than itself. The West has a naive and funny belief that the West should have power to the world, and should talk from the perspective of the "power" from above.

When the West stops thinking it is infallible and starts to tolerate and accept a parallel idealism with considerable power to rival the West itself, we can talk peace. With the West wanting everything not Western to cease, we have no option but to plan cooperation with cautious.

Funny enough, you were given exactly this opportunity some 40 years ago when US vote to accept China in WTO (with lots of preferences to help China development) and opened up investment possibilities for US money and technology, and what happen instead?
China can persuade US companies enough to keep the scheme going by opening up some market. And don't worry about the "image", China and US companies can together fake it 
Those are your words, and btw with which I fully agree. Then you talk about different mentality and China being innocent in her wishes? Sure, West was stupidly naive, we may agree on this, but the tide is changing...

Australia wants something to do with China practicing its lawful power in Hong Kong. If Australia never attempted to pollute China's political system and never attempted to spread Western idealism to China, none would have happened.

Australia as well the whole world also wanted to know few other things of common interest... But, I am not going to enter into any debate with you as no chance we may come to a common point of view over current and not only problems, time will show up who is right and to what extend. The only advice would be to temper a little down and do not consider yourself to be the smartest and brightest, the one who is checking real history events at a bare minimum extend, will notice that "Fortuna" is a very capricious lady 

[Ed.Kloonk]

You're not listening. I explained to you the historical economic reason in regards to HK's involvement to the current supply problems, and is on-topic.

Your responses are, frankly, not.

[bdunham7]

They were given some 20 years to do so already. They had their 20 years of Western democracy, and they want more.

Hmmmm.  Perhaps the democracy wasn't so terrible?

The West is not civilized enough to understand any language but force.

Yes, "true power comes from the barrel of a gun" is the phrase, isn't it? 

[Ed.Kloonk]

Hmmmm.  Perhaps the democracy wasn't so terrible?

Enlighten me.

Off topic.

[SilverSolder]

If you go far enough back, anyone who is not from Africa is a descendant of an invader!   ...  so where does that get us...

Being proud of your country is one thing, but pig headed nationalism has got us all in big trouble in the past...  will we ever learn?

[SilverSolder]

If you go far enough back, anyone who is not from Africa is a descendant of an invader!   ...  so where does that get us...

Problem is, we invaded what we now call China probably a few thousands of years ago, not a a hundred of years or two ago, and we did it cleanly -- there are no such people called native or aboriginal in China, they are completely genocided a few thousands of years ago.

Probably absorbed into the mainstream over time (as is likely to have happened e.g. with the Neanderthals, according to some theories).

All over the world, groups dislike people that don't conform to their norms.   This extends also to other groups that don't follow the same norms as them.   They can't get past the fact that their own norms are just one of many solutions to the same problems...

[SilverSolder]

They can't get past the fact that their own norms are just one of many solutions to the same problems...

That is exactly the problem of the West, they just HAVE to change us, instead of having peace, accept and compete fairly with other systems, and as a backup plan, build enough nukes to maintain a deterrence force, and coexist happily with the others.

I don't think the real problem is actually about China at all...

As you know, the main organizing principle in the West is corporations.  As long as you allow them to turn a decent profit on activities in China, there won't be any problems, they will pay their lobbyists to make sure of it!  Things had been going well with this for several decades...   what actually changed, all of a sudden?

It seems to me that what changed, is that a lot of people in the West (particularly English speaking countries) started to notice that their standards of living were not where they expected them to be.  We can argue whether their expectations were/are realistic or not, it's a different discussion...   but when you get a lot of people feeling their lives are not going well, that they are not getting what they think is rightfully theirs....  that's when countries can get "angry" and become irrational to various extents.

This feeling became worse and more widespread after the financial crisis, after a lot of cutbacks had to be made.  -  People started blaming foreigners for their problems, and here we are.

Bottom line - relations with China probably cannot improve until a majority of people feel their own country is doing well.  It doesn't help that people keep reading about record growth in China, and how China is able to build skyscrapers and entire subdivisions overnight, and so on - it just makes them feel even worse...  generally, people handle other people's success even worse than they handle their own failures!   

The chip shortage is a symptom of the underlying tensions and loss of trust that has occurred.  If both sides really wanted to, we could probably figure out how to get some chips manufactured in a hurry...

[NorthGuy]

The chip shortage is a symptom of the underlying tensions and loss of trust that has occurred.  If both sides really wanted to, we could probably figure out how to get some chips manufactured in a hurry...

I don't think the shortages have much to do with tensions. The recent year, at least $10T has been printed out of the thin air around the world (for comparison, China accumulated roughly $1T of US Treasuries so far). This money has to go somewhere. Hence the shortages. Pure mathematics.

We can only hope that the world economy can cope with this and the situation won't spiral out of control.

[SilverSolder]

The chip shortage is a symptom of the underlying tensions and loss of trust that has occurred.  If both sides really wanted to, we could probably figure out how to get some chips manufactured in a hurry...

I don't think the shortages have much to do with tensions. The recent year, at least $10T has been printed out of the thin air around the world (for comparison, China accumulated roughly $1T of US Treasuries so far). This money has to go somewhere. Hence the shortages. Pure mathematics.

We can only hope that the world economy can cope with this and the situation won't spiral out of control.

Not sure I follow - are you saying the printed money is being used to buy chips that won't be used in actual products?

[NorthGuy]

Not sure I follow - are you saying the printed money is being used to buy chips that won't be used in actual products?

Money is used to buy. Cannot buy without money. It's called demand in economics. If the supply cannot keep up with the demand, you get shortages, price increases, these sort of things.

[SiliconWizard]

The chip shortage is a symptom of the underlying tensions and loss of trust that has occurred.  If both sides really wanted to, we could probably figure out how to get some chips manufactured in a hurry...

I don't think the shortages have much to do with tensions. The recent year, at least $10T has been printed out of the thin air around the world (for comparison, China accumulated roughly $1T of US Treasuries so far). This money has to go somewhere. Hence the shortages. Pure mathematics.

Finally some common sense in this thread. You're spot on. The rest is just blabbering.

[SilverSolder]

No matter how many trillions were printed - why would anyone buy chips unless they had a product in mind for them?

Is it that "relatively worthless" projects end up given the go-ahead, in an environment with excessive money?

[SiliconWizard]

Is it that "relatively worthless" projects end up given the go-ahead, in an environment with excessive money?

You can express it this way, although worthiness is a difficult notion to define.

But yes: whatever amount of money is in circulation, it's going to be used entirely. This is what circulating means. And the more is available, the less cautious we tend to be about its use. Especially in times when we want to "fix" negative growth by injecting money. The overall objective is to favor growth. Anything goes.

More generally speaking, the sudden abundance of resources inevitably leads to unreasonable use and uncontrolled growth. This is why the world population has exploded to almost 8 billion people, and why we have destroyed a significant number of species on Earth in a matter of a few decades. It happened because we suddenly got the resources to do it.

[NorthGuy]

No matter how many trillions were printed - why would anyone buy chips unless they had a product in mind for them?

Is it that "relatively worthless" projects end up given the go-ahead, in an environment with excessive money?

People buy all kinds of things - refrigerators, cars, bitcoin miners, remote controls, houses. So, the companies who sell all this stuff need to make more. Many of these things use chips. Consequently, the companies need to buy chips. In addition, supply chains are hindered with COVID-19 measures. Even a small increase in demand would produce shortages, but it is not small.

Not only chips are affected. Other things too. For example, I bought some 4x2x8' boards last year for about $2.50 a piece. They're $8.50 now. It's worth nothing that Canada is the major lumber exporter in the world.

People will certainly buy everything they can. If you print enough money, next time you walk into a store (any store) you will only see empty shelves.

Perhaps current shortages are not as bad as they seem. Things may go back to normal. But with money printing getting worse and worse over the years, it's only a matter of time until something hits the fan.

[Rick Law]

The electronic component market will evolve to deal with it eventually.  Different suppliers/manufacturers will survive, die, or grow.

The petroleum market evolved to a "highest bidder" market.  Every day, gasoline prices change depending on the per-barrel price that day.  An oil tanker will leave port without knowing what value the raw crude would be sold at.  Gold has been on that track for as far back as I can remember.

If more and more goods follows that direction, JIT may become a thing of the past.  Manufacturers and suppliers both will have a hard time with any long-term contract with pre-determined price.  It may become a cost-plus contract instead.

[SilverSolder]

No matter how many trillions were printed - why would anyone buy chips unless they had a product in mind for them?

Is it that "relatively worthless" projects end up given the go-ahead, in an environment with excessive money?

People buy all kinds of things - refrigerators, cars, bitcoin miners, remote controls, houses. So, the companies who sell all this stuff need to make more. Many of these things use chips. Consequently, the companies need to buy chips. In addition, supply chains are hindered with COVID-19 measures. Even a small increase in demand would produce shortages, but it is not small.

Not only chips are affected. Other things too. For example, I bought some 4x2x8' boards last year for about $2.50 a piece. They're $8.50 now. It's worth nothing that Canada is the major lumber exporter in the world.

People will certainly buy everything they can. If you print enough money, next time you walk into a store (any store) you will only see empty shelves.

Perhaps current shortages are not as bad as they seem. Things may go back to normal. But with money printing getting worse and worse over the years, it's only a matter of time until something hits the fan.

That all makes sense, except that retail sales are only just about recovering from the downturn, and auto sales still haven't recovered.  Where are the chips going??

[NorthGuy]

That all makes sense, except that retail sales are only just about recovering from the downturn, and auto sales still haven't recovered.  Where are the chips going??

US retail sales were $620B in March vs about $530B/month pre-COVID. Motor vehicles in the US were $135B compared to $105B pre-COVID.

https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

China retail sales are up roughly 20% compared to pre-COVID.

https://www.chinainternetwatch.com/30910/retail-sales/

So, the retail sales are not so bad. This isn't very meaningful because you must see around the world, include business buying, bitcoin miners etc.

[SiliconWizard]

Without surprise, sales in physical stores, except for food, have plumetted in many countries around the world, but online sales have skyrocketed.
For motor vehicles, I guess it depends on the country. In most of Europe, it's been pretty bad as far as I know. Around -20% or so.

"Retail sales" are only part of the story of course, as you noted.

[SilverSolder]

That all makes sense, except that retail sales are only just about recovering from the downturn, and auto sales still haven't recovered.  Where are the chips going??

US retail sales were $620B in March vs about $530B/month pre-COVID. Motor vehicles in the US were $135B compared to $105B pre-COVID.

https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

China retail sales are up roughly 20% compared to pre-COVID.

https://www.chinainternetwatch.com/30910/retail-sales/

So, the retail sales are not so bad. This isn't very meaningful because you must see around the world, include business buying, bitcoin miners etc.

And we need to factor in that electronics sales are apparently pulling up the retail numbers, so it seems demand is actually at very high levels...

Shame about the supply! 

[bdunham7]

US retail sales were $620B in March vs about $530B/month pre-COVID. Motor vehicles in the US were $135B compared to $105B pre-COVID.
So, the retail sales are not so bad. This isn't very meaningful because you must see around the world, include business buying, bitcoin miners etc.

I have to wonder how much of that increase is due to inflated prices.  There have been significant actual increases in many (but not all) things, including motor vehicles--used and new.  A lot of that shows up as withdrawal of incentives and discounts rather than MSRP increases.  Instead of "we're ready to deal" and a lot stuffed with cars and trucks, you have a half eaten lot of leftovers and "the price is on the window".  Low interest and free money make that less painful to the consumer until things get so outrageous that they can't afford it even with an 8 year loan at 0% interest.  And then there's rent and house prices...

[bdunham7]

That is exactly the problem of the West, they just HAVE to change us, instead of having peace, accept and compete fairly with other systems, and as a backup plan, build enough nukes to maintain a deterrence force, and coexist happily with the others.

No, we want to liberate you from the oppression!  Like Iraq.   

[SilverSolder]

US retail sales were $620B in March vs about $530B/month pre-COVID. Motor vehicles in the US were $135B compared to $105B pre-COVID.
So, the retail sales are not so bad. This isn't very meaningful because you must see around the world, include business buying, bitcoin miners etc.

I have to wonder how much of that increase is due to inflated prices.  There have been significant actual increases in many (but not all) things, including motor vehicles--used and new.  A lot of that shows up as withdrawal of incentives and discounts rather than MSRP increases.  Instead of "we're ready to deal" and a lot stuffed with cars and trucks, you have a half eaten lot of leftovers and "the price is on the window".  Low interest and free money make that less painful to the consumer until things get so outrageous that they can't afford it even with an 8 year loan at 0% interest.  And then there's rent and house prices...

Most people's spending is pretty much literally what the bank will let them get away with!

The average price of a new car surpassed $38K in 2021...  it was $35K not long ago, so I think there is something to your inflation theory...

[Bassman59]

No, we want to liberate you from the oppression!  Like Iraq.   

Go fuck yourself, and relay these words to your government. We are a sovereign nationalist nation, we do not need foreigners to rule on our land.

You may have missed the irony, @Blueskull!

He's a very angry boy. I suppose that's how they're indoctrinated.

[SilverSolder]

Well, at least you don't have a low testosterone problem! 

I used to be angry when I was young.  Then I realized the stuff that made me angry wasn't really that important after all.  Just a phase.

[Halcyon]

I honestly don't think "the west" give a crap what China does, as long as they remain within their own borders and don't exceed their authority. Once China attempts to start engaging in dodgy behaviour across international lines, that's when someone has to step in and say "enough is enough". China continually go on about how they have the right to protect their borders, customs and way of life and whilst that's true, so does every other country. Western government have no interest in treading on the toes of China in their own country. If they want to spy on their own citizens, go for it, but keep that shit there.
 
The banning of Huawei infrastructure in Australia for example was absolutely the right move. Without giving away specifics, Huawei can claim there are no backdoors and they aren't controlled by the Chinese government all they like, but they are wasting their breath. China has demonstrated time and time again that they can't be trusted to do anything unless it benefits them in some way.

[Siwastaja]

Is it that "relatively worthless" projects end up given the go-ahead, in an environment with excessive money?

Kinda; the Nandblog guy who now has a different username gave a good example earlier.

Car manufacturers now put gazillion of microcontrollers and other components in a car for no real reason whatsoever, simply because they can. As a side effect, they can hire a large left door microcontroller software architecture ecosystem team, and another right door microcontroller communication with left door architecture team, which is of course a good thing for the employment of mediocre engineers with no important skills but a lot of "people skills" and ability to follow the trends.

The result is an expensive and unreliable car they can't even produce due to problems with component supply chain.

Also software-bricking (by "updates" that slow down the CPU) otherwise perfectly usable consumer gear to force buying new is a great example of technically unnecessary usage of components.

[Circlotron]

China has demonstrated time and time again that they can't be trusted to do anything unless it benefits them in some way.

Why would ANYONE do ANYTHING that does not benefit them.

Because they are not selfish and self centered.
A number of countries are currently jumping in to help India with it's covid situation. Does China intend to help too?

[Microdoser]

So, to try and get the thread back on track, I have noticed more and more IC components are not even available for backorder, for example the BME280 (temperature, humidity, and pressure sensor) from Bosch. All types of packaging stock dropped and dropped until Digi-Key won't accept any orders at all.

In preparation for this, I am being forced to stockpile and where not possible, to make multiple designs using alternative (less suitable) components simply to be able to ensure continued production. I have a small amount of stock, but it seems plain now that this will not see me until stock returns.

[SilverSolder]

Some are saying the shortages could go on into 2022... 

[SiliconWizard]

Some are saying the shortages could go on into 2022...

This most likely will, mainly again for math reasons, go on for as long as this sanitary crisis will go on. Now some of the effects may persist for some time after it's over, although at this point, I'm not even sure what will make us consider it is, but that's another topic.

[nctnico]

Without surprise, sales in physical stores, except for food, have plumetted in many countries around the world, but online sales have skyrocketed.
For motor vehicles, I guess it depends on the country. In most of Europe, it's been pretty bad as far as I know. Around -20% or so.

That may be but if the car manufacturers estimated a drop of -say- 60% and cancelled contracts based on that estimation then they still have a shortage. On top that people are now in a panic buying frenzy.

[mikerj]

You can't shoot refugees crossing the boarder, can you,

I doubt your dear leader would have any qualms about that.  It's an effective deterrent if you don't have to worry about those pesky human rights issues.

[SilverSolder]

You can't shoot refugees crossing the boarder, can you,

I doubt your dear leader would have any qualms about that.  It's an effective deterrent if you don't have to worry about those pesky human rights issues.

On the other hand, China didn't kill up to about 1m people in Iraq...    nobody's perfect eh?

We need to work together to solve the world's problems, not imagine that we are saints...

[Ed.Kloonk]

I'll be St. Peter.

I will stand here and be judging all of you.

[EEVblog]

This thread is done.