Author Topic: Out of stock. The world is ending?  (Read 20220 times)

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Online luiHSTopic starter

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Out of stock. The world is ending?
« on: April 12, 2021, 03:19:54 am »

What is happening? For some time it has been impossible to get accelerometers manufactured by ST, nor the one I was using for the design of a client, nor any other reference. Put in contact with ST they do not answer clearly what is the reason and when there will be stock again

TFT screens have doubled in price and are also difficult to buy even at outrageous prices.

Today new surprise, the NXP MK66 microcontrollers that I use in almost all my designs, sold out everywhere, even the Chinese ones. I will have to migrate everything earlier than expected, to the RT1024 or RT1064, and that before the stock also runs out.

But what the hell is happening? It is clear that it is related to the pandemic, but I do not understand why that has to affect the production of electronic components.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2021, 03:24:50 am by luiHS »
 

Online ataradov

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Re: Out of stock, the world is ending?
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2021, 03:22:29 am »
A few fab fires here and there did not help. The world is not ending, this kind of thing happens every once in a while. Small fish can do nothing but wait until big fish gets their parts.
Alex
 

Offline techman-001

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Re: Out of stock, the world is ending?
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2021, 04:36:27 am »
A few fab fires here and there did not help. The world is not ending, this kind of thing happens every once in a while. Small fish can do nothing but wait until big fish gets their parts.

And the Dinosaurs were once overheard to say " it's just another asteroid strike up at Yucatan, hardly the end of the world! "

I just checked arrow.com and they have 6 models of STM32F0xx in stock, as opposed to the *hundreds* they normally have, which is quite amazing. Check the picture I just took of in-stock levels.
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2021, 04:53:33 am »
Those who have studied numerical methods will recognize this as yet another difference of large numbers problem.  There is an absolutely tremendous difference between a supply of fifty million chips and a demand for fifty million, one hundred thousand.  Even though the imbalance between supply and demand is only 0.2 percent that 100,000 chip shortage can empty distributors in a flash.  It is not as if chips are not being made, just that the balance between supply and demand is just slightly off.

As Ataradov says, this will settle out over time.
 

Online ataradov

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2021, 05:00:23 am »
Shortage of all parts happens because A LOT of companies actually estimate that changing the design to a different part that is in stock at that time is worth it. So all parts disappear seemingly at the same time. Different memory and pin count variants go first. Some more obscure parts that are not close to other parts hang on.

And of course they buy up the stock before they make the change.
Alex
 

Online luiHSTopic starter

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2021, 05:36:07 am »

Well, I'm going to have to change all my designs. In the Chinese the MK66 to 17 USD and 40.5 USD, which before the pandemic cost 6.5 USD.

I am already preparing the changes to migrate to RT1024 or RT1064, I do not think it is very complicated, I continue with NXP and MCUXpresso. And now I will make my first PCB with BGA, I had it planned for the near future, but now I have no choice but to do it now and quickly or I will not be able to supply all the orders I have from customers.

I was also looking at some STM32, and the same thing happens, without stock in many references. I needed the STM32H747 and totally out of stock, I may be able to use the STM32H757, I have ordered some to test them.

What despair, this seems the end of the known civilization, everything begins to be scarce and prices rise exorbitantly. It looks like a Netflix fiction series.
 

Offline bdunham7

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2021, 05:42:38 am »
I see this all the time and I'm not talking about MCUs, but rather very ordinary simple parts.  Very low to no stock on high volume parts, availability dates months out.  Like this Darlington array.  I got enough for my prototypes, but if I were going to make a run of 1000 I'd be screwed.

A 3.5 digit 4.5 digit 5 digit 5.5 digit 6.5 digit 7.5 digit DMM is good enough for most people.
 

Offline KE5FX

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2021, 06:00:05 am »
What's happening in the supply chain is more or less apocalyptic.  If you're just now noticing it...  :scared:

Major automakers don't shut down for anything, for instance... but they're shutting down for this.
 

Offline techman-001

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2021, 06:13:39 am »
The STM32F050C4T6A at arrow.com in my picture for $1.6867 ea, the one with a local stock of 578 .... now all gone, half an hour later, along with the part listing.

Arrow now have 152x *total* STMF0xx in stock and *no* indication of new stock times.

I find this very unusual, personally, given I have watched stock levels at various suppliers since 2014.
 

Offline techman-001

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2021, 06:44:14 am »
What's happening in the supply chain is more or less apocalyptic.  If you're just now noticing it...  :scared:

Major automakers don't shut down for anything, for instance... but they're shutting down for this.

GM's affected 10,000 workers, now on reduced salary where hourly workers represented by a union “will receive about 75 percent of their compensation through a combination of unemployment and supplemental benefits,”

Perhaps they should have explained to their workers ...
"This is yet another difference of large numbers problem ... and will settle out over time, so just explain that to your landlords and family and if they don't understand, enroll them in a numerical methods degree" ?
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2021, 07:04:51 am »
Don't do panic redesigns now. Others are doing the same panic redesigns and obviously ending up with the same replacements you do, and the situation with those replacement parts may not be much better, so they are out of stock soon. On the other hand, the original parts will be available.

Try to wait through the crisis. It will solve itself.

Try to learn from your mistake so that the next time, once you have locked down BOM, immediately buy enough stock so you can satisfy your customer needs. Of course, this always isn't possible, but often is.
 

Offline westfw

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2021, 07:05:57 am »
It's almost like there was some sort of global catastrophe or something!

Quote
I'm going to have to change all my designs.
you think that will help, do you?  That your new chip choice will stay available for longer than it takes your old chip choice to recover?  Good luck with that.  :-(
 

Offline techman-001

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #12 on: April 12, 2021, 07:08:16 am »
I see this all the time and I'm not talking about MCUs, but rather very ordinary simple parts.  Very low to no stock on high volume parts, availability dates months out.  Like this Darlington array.  I got enough for my prototypes, but if I were going to make a run of 1000 I'd be screwed.

(Attachment Link)

I had no idea there would be this shortage when I bought 40x ULN2003APWR in Jan 2021 but luckily arrow still have hundreds of thousands of ULN2003D1013TR and ULN2003ADR2G plus small stocks of others.

https://www.arrow.com/en/products/search?cat=&q=+ULN2003&r=true
« Last Edit: April 12, 2021, 09:16:29 am by techman-001 »
 

Offline JPortici

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2021, 09:08:54 am »
Our contractor started giving hints last october when manufacturers and distributors began writing odd emails.
Luckily we decided to stock critical parts ourselves because even if we said to contractor "go ahead buy 1000 of X" by the time they actually authorized the purchase (1-3 hours later) the stock would have vanished so here we are, we have all critical parts for our designs until EOY, unless we recive more unexpected big orders.

Too bad that manufacturers are already saying "new parts available from june '22"  :-DD

What we didn't anticipate is that we would be in the same situation with cable harnesses, we can't get specific connectors, october is the very least even if we go ahead and clone them. We will have tons of boards but unusable because no connectors.
 

Offline NorthGuy

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #14 on: April 12, 2021, 01:15:20 pm »
It's almost like there was some sort of global catastrophe or something!

I don't know if this is the beginning of hyperinflation, but if there was hyperinflation, that's how it would start.
 

Offline mikerj

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #15 on: April 12, 2021, 01:23:04 pm »
What's happening in the supply chain is more or less apocalyptic.  If you're just now noticing it...  :scared:

Major automakers don't shut down for anything, for instance... but they're shutting down for this.

GM's affected 10,000 workers, now on reduced salary where hourly workers represented by a union “will receive about 75 percent of their compensation through a combination of unemployment and supplemental benefits,”

Perhaps they should have explained to their workers ...
"This is yet another difference of large numbers problem ... and will settle out over time, so just explain that to your landlords and family and if they don't understand, enroll them in a numerical methods degree" ?

A little unreasonable to blame auto manufacturers for this shortage don't you think?
 

Offline madires

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #16 on: April 12, 2021, 01:57:31 pm »
The big manufacturers seem to be on a stockpiling frenzy, like some households bought as much toilet paper, pasta and flour as possible when COVID19 started to spread.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2021, 02:55:08 pm by madires »
 

Online woofy

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #17 on: April 12, 2021, 01:58:34 pm »
I don't know if this is the beginning of hyperinflation, but if there was hyperinflation, that's how it would start.
No kidding, we were recently quoted $35 each for BN055 at the full reel level. Another supplier quoted 2 year lead time.
Bosch have no idea when they will get more chips, which are manufactured by ST.

Offline bdunham7

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #18 on: April 12, 2021, 02:22:02 pm »
I don't know if this is the beginning of hyperinflation, but if there was hyperinflation, that's how it would start.

During the runup to the previous financial crisis, rhodium went to $10,000/oz, in part due to demand and in part due to GM hoarding a billion dollars worth.

Recently it spiked to $10,000 again, from a 'normal' price of $500/oz or so, then it fell again and then....

A 3.5 digit 4.5 digit 5 digit 5.5 digit 6.5 digit 7.5 digit DMM is good enough for most people.
 

Offline bdunham7

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #19 on: April 12, 2021, 02:41:01 pm »
On the other hand, the original parts will be available.

Hopefully, although I think that there will be at least some cases where they won't ever be seen again. 

Quote
Try to learn from your mistake so that the next time, once you have locked down BOM, immediately buy enough stock so you can satisfy your customer needs. Of course, this always isn't possible, but often is.

That's a 180 degree pivot from how the majority of lean-operating manufacturers were operated by their bean counting CFOs.  And although I agree, I'll bet that this pivot is at least partly responsible for some of the current shortages.
A 3.5 digit 4.5 digit 5 digit 5.5 digit 6.5 digit 7.5 digit DMM is good enough for most people.
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #20 on: April 12, 2021, 05:17:21 pm »
When times are good JIT is the most efficient way to manufacture.  It sucks in unsettled times.  There is lots of evidence, including in this thread,  that human memory for unsettled times is only a few years.  For some fairly good reasons.  The most recent run of good times lasted for roughly a decade, and conceivably could resume in less than a year.  Anyone shunning JIT in that interval had real problems competing on cost.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #21 on: April 12, 2021, 05:30:49 pm »
JIT may be good in many industries but electronic manufacturing, nah, unless you are a very big player and have very good direct contracts with the manufacturers so they guarantee you certain delivery dates.

For small to medium sized players, even during good times, you have to plan ahead and buy parts to last for the manufacturer standard lead time which is very typically half a year; for some parts, it's a whole year and for some, just a quarter.

If you assume you can get parts quicker than manufacturer standard lead time, you are pushing your luck, you don't need a big crisis to have to wait for months. Yes, JIT often works out if we ignore component crises every 3 years, but it's a risk even during good times and the management needs to understand it being a risk.

Still remember ceramic cap crisis 3 years ago? It pretty much self-corrected in just 3-4 months, and was manageable with some redneck creativity ("oh, just replace 100nF 0603 with 56nF 0402, it will fit and work"). Now is worse.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2021, 05:33:47 pm by Siwastaja »
 

Offline maxkunes

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #22 on: April 12, 2021, 05:39:23 pm »

I am already preparing the changes to migrate to RT1024 or RT1064, I do not think it is very complicated, I continue with NXP and MCUXpresso. And now I will make my first PCB with BGA, I had it planned for the near future, but now I have no choice but to do it now and quickly or I will not be able to supply all the orders I have from customers.


Not sure I would do that as you pretty much won't be able to get 1024 or 1064s right now. Also note that the only 1064s in stock are the older rev that NXP stopped manufacturing. The new chips won't be in stock till late this year at best.

We had to go and buy the last 1064s some polish company had.

If you are going to switch to a new part, you should do it for cost or performance gain. Every chip is having shortage issues right now.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #23 on: April 12, 2021, 05:45:17 pm »
Yes, during general component shortage affecting most parts, doing engineering changes should require more rigorous consideration than normally, yet people are doing the opposite, changing parts like underwear based on a quick instinct feeling that the alternative part might be better available.

This works if you can make your cycle quick, finish the new BOM first, then order all parts for the next year of expected sales, then finalize the design and order PCBA. Otherwise, your "replacements" go out of stock while you simulate and lay the PCB out or communicate with the CM.
 

Offline bdunham7

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2021, 06:14:13 pm »
When times are good JIT is the most efficient way to manufacture.

For electronics, JIT is mainly a capital allocation issue with maybe a taxation aspect thrown in.  CFOs like to perform continuous liposuction on their operations, vacuuming all the fat out.  However, that system only works if you are large enough--and perhaps even profitable enough--that your individual business matters to the producers.  If you are smaller, you have to be aware of how much risk you have from supply issues, even in good times.  Nowadays even companies like General Motors are finding that their business isn't as important as they thought and they now have to resort to hiring politicians to advocate for them.  In a different field, I used to maintain an inventory based on what was less available as opposed to what a I used the most, with some bargain-hunting opportunism thrown in. 

Quote
It sucks in unsettled times.  There is lots of evidence, including in this thread,  that human memory for unsettled times is only a few years.

Well it seems obvious that it is less than a decade, since everyone has completely forgotten the previous two financial crises or at least imagines that their like can ever happen again.  Both the inland SoCal housing prices and the S&P 500 are reflecting new levels of absurdity that can only be supported by ludicrously low interest rates--and those are finally starting to go up despite near-ZIRP.
A 3.5 digit 4.5 digit 5 digit 5.5 digit 6.5 digit 7.5 digit DMM is good enough for most people.
 


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