Author Topic: Out of stock. The world is ending?  (Read 20204 times)

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Offline schmitt trigger

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #25 on: April 12, 2021, 06:55:46 pm »
“ CFOs like to perform continuous liposuction on their operations”
A very original and accurate description!


It is not only microcontrollers and FPGAs.
Certain semiconductor classes, like HV Mosfets or IGBTs, manufacturers are now quoting 52+ weeks lead time.

Also, because manufacturers are scrambling to find manufacturing capacity for higher demand devices which they can sell at a premium, for its  slow moving devices are either phasing out variants (I. E. Discontinuing diverse package variants with the exception of a single one), or declaring them obsolete with a very short LTB window.

As other old timers here have mentioned: been there, done that. We somehow survived.
But this time the crisis appears that it will become wider and deeper.

Kind of what has happened with the Covid virus.
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #26 on: April 12, 2021, 06:59:53 pm »
The world may not be ending yet, but what has been happening now for over a year is certainly unprecedented in recent history.
 

Offline KE5FX

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #27 on: April 12, 2021, 11:05:47 pm »
As other old timers here have mentioned: been there, done that. We somehow survived.
But this time the crisis appears that it will become wider and deeper.

My concern is that the old timers are wrong this time.  I'm not new to the business myself.  We have not "been here," at least not since World War II, and we have not "done this."  There is an unprecedented confluence of factors at work, ranging from economic to political to environmental, and there are a minuscule number of fabs and facilities available to deal with exploding worldwide demand for semiconductors. 

Meanwhile, Trump thumps his chest at the Chinese, incentivizing the development of wasteful redundant supply chains and production capacity that will be inaccessible to most of the world.  The Texans can't keep the power turned on, and the Californians don't have much room to criticize the Texans.  In the EU, the semiconductor equipment manufacturers have orders they can't fill due to lack of, well, semiconductors.  And in Taiwan, they are having to decide whether they use water to make chips or grow food.

This is going to take a while to shake out. 
 

Offline Circlotron

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #28 on: April 13, 2021, 01:18:38 am »
And in Taiwan, they are having to decide whether they use water to make chips or grow food.
Add to that, in some circles, the talk of invasion.
 

Offline luiHSTopic starter

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #29 on: April 13, 2021, 01:39:47 am »

How a Chip Shortage Snarled Everything From Phones to Cars
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-semiconductors-chips-shortage/

 

Online brucehoult

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #30 on: April 13, 2021, 02:21:47 am »
Some of us in places such as Australia and New Zealand are happy to send Taiwan as much food as they want to take!
 

Offline bdunham7

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #31 on: April 13, 2021, 03:16:44 am »
Western existence

What is 'western existence'? 
A 3.5 digit 4.5 digit 5 digit 5.5 digit 6.5 digit 7.5 digit DMM is good enough for most people.
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #32 on: April 13, 2021, 04:27:19 am »
Add to that, in some circles, the talk of invasion.

Western existence in any part we call China must be eradicated. It's not called invasion, it's called unification.

I can't speak to the justice of any action China takes in Taiwan.  Nor does it matter whether you call it invasion or unification.  If force is used in the implementation it will cause massive disruption, both locally and around the globe.  Maybe in the long run it is the right thing to do.  History from a couple of hundred years from now will have an opinion on this.  No one can see clearly enough now to say what good or bad will come of such action.   But I repeat, it will be horrible for world trade.  If a single ship getting stuck in the Suez causes as much havoc as has been seen, think of what a two week shutdown of all Taiwan electronic component production would mean.  And two weeks is actually a best case scenario in a forced unification even assuming no resistance and no outside of China interference.

 

Offline maxwell3e10

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #33 on: April 13, 2021, 05:28:37 am »
If we learned anything from recent events is the profound lack of foresight among politicians and industry leaders. The concentration in the manufacturing of medical supplies and electronic components had been discussed for years but hardly ever addressed.  So one can certainly expect much worse disruptions following any future world instabilities.
 

Online tszaboo

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #34 on: April 13, 2021, 07:50:46 am »
A little unreasonable to blame auto manufacturers for this shortage don't you think?
They are partially to blame. They started doing things like individually driven LED strips on the inside of the car. Why is there an LED strip in the first place is beyond me, its awful ugly. There are buttons that are directly connected to CAN. A button, with an MCU and a CAN transceiver instead of wiring it to the nearest ECU. And suddenly you need several times the silicon to make a car.

Western existence

What is 'western existence'? 
You really have to troll him this much? Look at the wall of text rumbling...
 
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Online JPortici

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #35 on: April 13, 2021, 09:04:08 am »
A little unreasonable to blame auto manufacturers for this shortage don't you think?
They are partially to blame. They started doing things like individually driven LED strips on the inside of the car. Why is there an LED strip in the first place is beyond me, its awful ugly. There are buttons that are directly connected to CAN. A button, with an MCU and a CAN transceiver instead of wiring it to the nearest ECU. And suddenly you need several times the silicon to make a car.

but then now you have the Front Left Door Team, the Widshield Team.. more EEs employed :D
Nothing new for certain manufacturers, that have been using 32bit+CAN for literally anything for decades
Then i think about how the buttons in my old fiat punto were handled. Even in the same block you could have at least 4 different methods:
Presence/Absence of signal at frequency X
PWM
Analog (5V means none pressed, level means combination of pressed)
Plain Digital

There is advantage in having an ECU for litterally anything which is diagnostic*, but some of the things are indeed ridiculous and driving up cost for no reason. Like internal led strip with adaptive level and color. No thanks, i want DARK and 4000€ off

*I am interfacing to an exhaust valve that evolved over time from pneumatic, then pneumatic controlled by solenoid, then electornic controlled by PWM but only open/close, then controlled by PWM variable opening, now it's LIN. one PID returns a frame of data containing istantaneout voltage/current at the motor, operating flags, target and actual position, which IMHO is rather cool. Could have been many wires or a dedicated ECU, now it's everything in the valve. Multiple valves don't require more wires
« Last Edit: April 13, 2021, 11:38:12 am by JPortici »
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #36 on: April 13, 2021, 10:15:57 am »
And two weeks is actually a best case scenario in a forced unification even assuming no resistance and no outside of China interference.

It will be longer than two weeks. It will be forever. The only reason China has left Taiwan as is is because we want to get Western technology in through it. If Taiwan is a part controlled under the CCP, there is zero reason why the US would support it.

I blame Trump for this. Before Trump's reign, there was a harmonious balance where China takes advantage of Western technology through Taiwan, and US companies take advantage of the huge market of China through Taiwan, and Taiwan sits in between, benefited by both, all at the cost of the US losing its technological and potential military advantage to China.

Since capitalists can lobby the government in the US, China can persuade US companies enough to keep the scheme going by opening up some market. And don't worry about the "image", China and US companies can together fake it so it looks like China is changing so politically the US government was looking well in spreading ideology.

If Trump stayed quiet about all of this and behaved like his predecessors, there would not be any drama. US companies will keep gaining Chinese market, China will keep getting the latest Western technology, Taiwan will keep doing its man in the middle job, and US government will keep looking good as China is perceived to be changing.

Trump wanted to plug the hole that leaks technology to China, at the cost of US tech giants, China and Taiwan, all of them, hence the drama in the recent years. This guy knew nothing about maintaining such a delicate balance, and as a result all heaven broke loose.

What this overly patriotic orange fur ball did could bring the world, at least the technology world, to deep disaster.

The two weeks I talked about was the disruption in Taiwan production.  Which presumably hurts China even if China chooses not to export.  If China does choose that it obviously hurts the rest of the world.

Forever is a long time.  China's day in the sun will also end.  Maybe hundreds of years.
 

Offline bdunham7

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #37 on: April 13, 2021, 10:57:56 pm »
WW3 doomsday scenarios notwithstanding, is it possible that part of the 'shortage' issue is high demand?  I mean much more than usual.  Mouser hasn't yet shipped my April 9th order and they cite "Covid prevention measures and peak volume" as reasons for delay.  Are people panic buying the shelves bare?
A 3.5 digit 4.5 digit 5 digit 5.5 digit 6.5 digit 7.5 digit DMM is good enough for most people.
 

Offline KE5FX

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #38 on: April 13, 2021, 11:43:01 pm »
Yes, it's demand in a nutshell.  Everybody expected demand to fall off a cliff when the COVID lockdowns hit.  Instead, the trend went in the other direction.   Lots of consumers sitting at home with nothing else to do but spend money. 

The thing about JIT is, it's the greatest supply-management paradigm in the known universe, right up until you guess wrong about what you're going to need and when you're going to need it.  Then it's the worst.
 
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Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #39 on: April 14, 2021, 12:50:34 am »
A little unreasonable to blame auto manufacturers for this shortage don't you think?
They are partially to blame. They started doing things like individually driven LED strips on the inside of the car. Why is there an LED strip in the first place is beyond me, its awful ugly. There are buttons that are directly connected to CAN. A button, with an MCU and a CAN transceiver instead of wiring it to the nearest ECU. And suddenly you need several times the silicon to make a car.

but then now you have the Front Left Door Team, the Widshield Team.. more EEs employed :D
Nothing new for certain manufacturers, that have been using 32bit+CAN for literally anything for decades
Then i think about how the buttons in my old fiat punto were handled. Even in the same block you could have at least 4 different methods:
Presence/Absence of signal at frequency X
PWM
Analog (5V means none pressed, level means combination of pressed)
Plain Digital

There is advantage in having an ECU for litterally anything which is diagnostic*, but some of the things are indeed ridiculous and driving up cost for no reason. Like internal led strip with adaptive level and color. No thanks, i want DARK and 4000€ off

*I am interfacing to an exhaust valve that evolved over time from pneumatic, then pneumatic controlled by solenoid, then electornic controlled by PWM but only open/close, then controlled by PWM variable opening, now it's LIN. one PID returns a frame of data containing istantaneout voltage/current at the motor, operating flags, target and actual position, which IMHO is rather cool. Could have been many wires or a dedicated ECU, now it's everything in the valve. Multiple valves don't require more wires

Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #40 on: April 14, 2021, 12:54:32 am »
[...]
Forever is a long time.  China's day in the sun will also end.  Maybe hundreds of years.

The Roman empire is still with us...  it just morphed into a whole bunch of independent states that is now thought of as Europe!  :D

China has always been a big player in Asia, and that will remain true barring disasters.

The USA will remain a major power in the world (as long as we don't get too many more Trumps...)

We are all better off by cooperating...   E.g. we could colonize Mars or something really big, that would require the output of all the world to do properly...
 

Online wraper

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #41 on: April 14, 2021, 12:59:25 am »
The USA will remain a major power in the world (as long as we don't get too many more Trumps...)
https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/547599-biden-is-thinking-about-building-that-wall-and-thats-a-good-thing
Trump wall = bad. Biden wall = good.
 
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Online brucehoult

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #42 on: April 14, 2021, 01:09:33 am »
Forever is a long time.  China's day in the sun will also end.  Maybe hundreds of years.

Much less.

Remember how worried we all were about Japan when they switched from making "jap crap" in the 60s to the best quality ... everything ... by 1980? They were going to own the world!

Well, no. They got richer until their salaries and costs were the same as Europe&USA and then they couldn't automatically out-compete any more.

The same has happened -- or is clearly well into the process -- with Korea, Vietnam, Thailand.

China is bigger, but it will happen there too.
 

Online brucehoult

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #43 on: April 14, 2021, 01:46:16 am »
Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

- 1.8 litre engine, 139 HP, CVT transmission, 38 mpg highway
- long life LED headlights, daytime running lights, brake lights, etc
- backup camera with dynamic guides
- 6 speaker sound system with touchscreen, Apple Carplay and Android Auto
- automatic precollision braking with pedestrian detection
- lane departure alert with steering assist
- automatic high beams
- automatic road sign reading
- dynamic cruise control
- ten airbags including driver knee, front and rear side curtain
- tire pressure monitoring system
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #44 on: April 14, 2021, 02:37:49 am »
Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

- 1.8 litre engine, 139 HP, CVT transmission, 38 mpg highway
- long life LED headlights, daytime running lights, brake lights, etc
- backup camera with dynamic guides
- 6 speaker sound system with touchscreen, Apple Carplay and Android Auto
- automatic precollision braking with pedestrian detection
- lane departure alert with steering assist
- automatic high beams
- automatic road sign reading
- dynamic cruise control
- ten airbags including driver knee, front and rear side curtain
- tire pressure monitoring system

You almost talked me into one, are you a car salesman in your day job?  :D
 

Online brucehoult

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #45 on: April 14, 2021, 03:10:11 am »
Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

- 1.8 litre engine, 139 HP, CVT transmission, 38 mpg highway
- long life LED headlights, daytime running lights, brake lights, etc
- backup camera with dynamic guides
- 6 speaker sound system with touchscreen, Apple Carplay and Android Auto
- automatic precollision braking with pedestrian detection
- lane departure alert with steering assist
- automatic high beams
- automatic road sign reading
- dynamic cruise control
- ten airbags including driver knee, front and rear side curtain
- tire pressure monitoring system

You almost talked me into one, are you a car salesman in your day job?  :D

No :-)  I've also never bought a car new, and probably never would.

I do like some of the modern safety features listed above. They've just become universally available in the last few years, but some older cars do have them.

I bought my current car in May last year when I returned to New Zealand after working for some years in Moscow and then San Francisco. If I don't travel again I'll probably use it for ten years at least.

- 2008 Subaru Outback, ~$6500 with 55000 miles.
- 2.5 litre turbo engine, 265 HP, 5 sp auto, ~28 mpg highway (actual), AWD
- camera-based dynamic cruise control
- precollision alert (but auto braking only if cruise is engaged)
- lane departure warning
- TPMS

No reversing camera or Airplay. Those can be added from 3rd parties if wanted.

The money saved compared to a new car buys a LOT of fuel.
 

Offline Bud

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #46 on: April 14, 2021, 03:51:05 am »
Trump did the right thing, judging by that it touched your nerve.
Facebook-free life and Rigol-free shack.
 
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Offline ejeffrey

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #47 on: April 14, 2021, 04:21:47 am »
Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

This isn't said enough.  You can buy a new Corolla or Civic for only slightly more than the inflation adjusted base price of a 1981 Ford Escort (base price $5500, or $17.5k today vs. $20k for the corolla).  Even though the average person drives considerably more miles than in the 1980s the new car will last 3x as long, be incredibly reliable yet require almost no maintenance and will be dramatically safer with far lower emissions and better fuel economy even than the manual, much less the automatic which was crap.  All this translates to a cost of ownership that is probably *half* of an economy car from the 80s..  And of course comfort and convenience will be far beyond what the 80s had to offer.

The reason the average new car costs nearly $40k isn't because cars got more expensive, it is that people are buying more expensive cars -- giant SUVs with leather seats from luxury brand names with all the bells and whistles.  And to some extent that is even rational: people are spending more time than ever in their cars, and the cars are lasting much longer.
 
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Offline Rick Law

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #48 on: April 14, 2021, 05:15:37 am »
JIT is a gamble.  Interruption is going to happen sooner or later.  The gamble is, the cost of the occasional interruptions can be covered by the savings when it is working well.

My opinion is that most executives under estimated the cost and over estimated savings.  My favorite example is Sony-Ericsson.  Yeah, JIT saved a lot, until 2011 - parts shortage, no Ericsson phone for the Christmas season.  Unable to recover from their market share lost -- no more Ericsson phones, gone, kaput, finish, ghosted.

I do however fail to understand the current lock down which caused the panic stock-piling.  Europe did not have their economy locked down during WW-II.  Britain was open during the blitz (aka The Battle of Britain), open when it was under V1 and V2 attacks.  America was open during the Spanish Flu (1907), open during the Small Pox epidemic (1775) while having a revolution against England...  I am sure there are many more such examples.

I think human-kind (or just the modern world) has turned jelly.  People just imagine they can have a totally risk free life, and turned into jelly when they are told there is risk, just a small risk, they turned into jelly -- mean while, just a year or so before, they were bungee jumping or week-end car racing.

Something is not working right.  We lost our grit.
 
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Online JPortici

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #49 on: April 14, 2021, 05:34:08 am »
Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

This isn't said enough.  You can buy a new Corolla or Civic for only slightly more than the inflation adjusted base price of a 1981 Ford Escort (base price $5500, or $17.5k today vs. $20k for the corolla).  Even though the average person drives considerably more miles than in the 1980s the new car will last 3x as long, be incredibly reliable yet require almost no maintenance and will be dramatically safer with far lower emissions and better fuel economy even than the manual, much less the automatic which was crap.  All this translates to a cost of ownership that is probably *half* of an economy car from the 80s..  And of course comfort and convenience will be far beyond what the 80s had to offer.

The reason the average new car costs nearly $40k isn't because cars got more expensive, it is that people are buying more expensive cars -- giant SUVs with leather seats from luxury brand names with all the bells and whistles.  And to some extent that is even rational: people are spending more time than ever in their cars, and the cars are lasting much longer.

You both should come to europe and see the situation here.
- Additional emission related components with questionable benefits (tires and brakes are already polluting more than the engine at least since euro6, studies available from the EU) that drives up the cost for little practical gain are mandated by law. You also have to fill the Adblue tank now.
- Additional ADAS mandated by law (which is actually good) which will require more systems as the time goes
- Base prices inflated because incentives if you give in an older car (my old punto was valued 600euro, could have been 6000 two years later because law)
- Base prices more inflated because they want you tied in with financing, you get a big discount, which is what the base price used to be a couple of years ago, but even if you add insurance and maintenance you end up paying even more, and most cars you can't get by paying upfront
- Because of LAW car actually will last less. I got an used 2014 skoda octavia (crazy good car, way better than my girlfriend's newer golf in every aspect, from driving to maintaining of engine and cleaning interiors.) which is EURO5 and by the time it will be 10yo i won't be able to go to most cities in my country, let alone germany or france, which would be fine if public transport would be the same as milan or berlin everywhere, but we know it's not. You end up finishing payng your 84month financing plan -really, this crazy- and you have to change your car right away. or get a new one and restart financing every 3 years, and you'll never stop paying to rent something.
 


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