Author Topic: Out of stock. The world is ending?  (Read 20217 times)

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Online Ed.Kloonk

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #50 on: April 14, 2021, 05:56:03 am »
France is banning domestic flights of two hours or less.

That will surely affect supplies if the senders need to find other ways to courier them.

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Offline brucehoult

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #51 on: April 14, 2021, 07:14:48 am »
France is insane. Europe is insane.

A two hour flight is a 15 hour drive *if* there is a reasonably direct road route with good roads. Two days, for most people. That means a same-day return business trip becomes almost a whole work week.

Unless you fly private, of course, at vastly higher cost -- and still a 5 to 7 hour trip each way for a piston or small turboprop plane.

In Australia, for example, that would outlaw flights between Sydney and Adelaide.

To be fair, there probably aren't any two hour (jet) flights within France anyway. Paris to Marseille is only 1:15 and that's getting close to the extremes of the country.
 
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Offline Retep

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #52 on: April 14, 2021, 07:34:51 am »
France is insane. Europe is insane.

A two hour flight is a 15 hour drive *if* there is a reasonably direct road route with good roads. Two days, for most people. That means a same-day return business trip becomes almost a whole work week.

You are assuming that the only alternative to a plane is a car. In France you also have the option to use the train. The TGV is much faster than a car. Everything considered (check-in, security, pre-boarding time) a domestic flight in France may not be any faster than taking a trip with the TGV, in fact the TGV may very well be the faster option.
 
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Offline JPortici

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #53 on: April 14, 2021, 08:12:37 am »
France is insane. Europe is insane.

True. So many things done so people can pat themselves on the back.
 

Online Ed.Kloonk

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #54 on: April 14, 2021, 09:00:02 am »
France is insane. Europe is insane.

True. So many things done so people can pat themselves on the back.

Yeah. We should be grateful. The earlier suggestion was 4 hour min flight ban, not the 2 that has been imposed.

At least they had the good sense to slaughter the goose slowly.
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Offline brucehoult

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #55 on: April 14, 2021, 10:10:07 am »
France is insane. Europe is insane.

A two hour flight is a 15 hour drive *if* there is a reasonably direct road route with good roads. Two days, for most people. That means a same-day return business trip becomes almost a whole work week.

You are assuming that the only alternative to a plane is a car. In France you also have the option to use the train. The TGV is much faster than a car. Everything considered (check-in, security, pre-boarding time) a domestic flight in France may not be any faster than taking a trip with the TGV, in fact the TGV may very well be the faster option.

Sometimes, sure. But TGV doesn't go to every town that would have an airport. For example, I think it doesn't yet go to Toulouse. And even if if goes to both your origin and destination the route can be inconvenient. For example, to go from Bordeaux to Marseille you need to first go to Paris. That probably triples the distance compared to a direct route.

Let's see if I can check.

Flight Bordeaux to Marseille: 1:05 (Air France), 1:10 9(Ryanair, EasyJet). $34 on Ryanair.

Driving Bordeaux to Marseille: 6:16, 645 km

TGV
Bordeaux to Paris Montparnasse: around 2:10. It's now noon. Next train is 13:59-16:41
Paris Lyon to Marseille: 18:39-21:57.
Total trip time 7:58

As it happens, you can take a regular non-TGV train direct from Bordeaux to Marseille in about 6:10, covering 504 km at about 80 km/h average speed.

Driving is definitely very competitive against either regular train or TGV, especially if your actual origin and destination are not next door to the railway stations.
 

Offline bateau020

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #56 on: April 14, 2021, 10:46:10 am »
But TGV doesn't go to every town that would have an airport.

The same goes for the flights. How about the famous stops at "michelin airport" (Clermont-Ferrand) if you wanted to fly a slightly non standard route?
And don't underestimate the time lost going to, and waiting time at the airport, especially since 9/11. On top of that, there are many more train stations than airports.
Before Covid I was a moderately frequent flyer: about 50 flights per year, but I almost never took the plane for in-france travel. Just not worth it. Train was sometimes slightly longer, but at least you could work, and more importantly, be ONLINE most of the trip. GSM Coverage used to be bad a couple of years ago, but it has really improved. Never succeeded in setting up a stable and fast VPN while in a plane. Might come though.

But whoa, hugely off topic here.
 

Online tszaboo

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #57 on: April 14, 2021, 01:38:59 pm »
France is insane. Europe is insane.

A two hour flight is a 15 hour drive *if* there is a reasonably direct road route with good roads. Two days, for most people. That means a same-day return business trip becomes almost a whole work week.

You are assuming that the only alternative to a plane is a car. In France you also have the option to use the train. The TGV is much faster than a car. Everything considered (check-in, security, pre-boarding time) a domestic flight in France may not be any faster than taking a trip with the TGV, in fact the TGV may very well be the faster option.
Trains are stupidly expensive. I could buy 2 hour flight tickets for 15 EUR two years ago. A ticket from Amsterdam to Brussels ( 2 hours, 200KM) is 39 EUR the cheapest. It's not going to be any better, because railway companies have practically zero incentive to get more passengers.

A 747-800 uses less than 2KG fuel per passenger per 100KM. You need a Toyota Prius with 2-3 people to be more economic than the plane.

France is clearly wrong here. The future is more airports, more aircrafts, smaller aircrafts, turboprop planes and going forward, not backwards. Why would you ever take a bus if you could fly?
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #58 on: April 14, 2021, 02:40:08 pm »
[...] Why would you ever take a bus if you could fly?

If you are only going one stop?  :-)

The big problem with flying is the hassle at the airport.  Back in the bad old days, you could literally arrive at the airport 30 minutes before the flight and still make the plane.  Today they tell you to be there 2 hours in advance, in some cases...   

 

Offline phil from seattle

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #59 on: April 14, 2021, 02:45:07 pm »
As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)
 
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Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #60 on: April 14, 2021, 02:50:35 pm »
As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)

"Unification", as in the "United" States?  - it took a civil war to do that, if I remember my history correctly...

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Offline madires

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #61 on: April 14, 2021, 02:56:27 pm »
 

Offline Bud

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #62 on: April 14, 2021, 02:58:59 pm »
Trump did the right thing
..
This idiot hurt those elite members of the American society, for pathetic jobs of those pathetic blue collar workers who can't compete without trade bars, merely belonging to the basket of deplorables.

"If you can't beat them, ad hominem" -  your words?
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Offline Bassman59

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #63 on: April 14, 2021, 03:02:32 pm »
As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)

"Unification", as in the "United" States?  - it took a civil war to do that, if I remember my history correctly...

You don't.
 

Offline Retep

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #64 on: April 14, 2021, 03:04:22 pm »
You are assuming that the only alternative to a plane is a car. In France you also have the option to use the train. The TGV is much faster than a car. Everything considered (check-in, security, pre-boarding time) a domestic flight in France may not be any faster than taking a trip with the TGV, in fact the TGV may very well be the faster option.
Trains are stupidly expensive. I could buy 2 hour flight tickets for 15 EUR two years ago. A ticket from Amsterdam to Brussels ( 2 hours, 200KM) is 39 EUR the cheapest. It's not going to be any better, because railway companies have practically zero incentive to get more passengers.
There are many variables that affect the total cost (which includes traveling to- and from the airport or train station) such as where you depart from and your destination and date/time. Sometimes a flight is cheaper, sometimes the train.

A 747-800 uses less than 2KG fuel per passenger per 100KM. You need a Toyota Prius with 2-3 people to be more economic than the plane.
That kind of per passenger fuel consumption is only that low when a 747-800 is well filled with passengers. For short domestic flights typically they don't use a 747-800 (or other aircraft with comparable capacity), can you guess why?

Comparing a 747-800 with a Toyota Prius is rather silly, considering that routes for which a 747-800 is a logical choice a Toyota Prius is not an realistic alternative and vise versa.

France is clearly wrong here. The future is more airports, more aircrafts, smaller aircrafts, turboprop planes and going forward, not backwards. Why would you ever take a bus if you could fly?
Maybe because a bus is for short trips faster, cheaper and/or more convenient (BTW a train is not a bus, those are quite different modes of transportation). Or would you take a plane for a 50 km trip?  Traveling to- and from the airports would probably take more time for most people. Add to that the time and inconvenience of security checks, check-in...etc. and the plane is not all that attractive for short distances. And all that is assuming you can get airports that close together - economics, noise regulations and safety concerns may make your dream rather infeasible.

The past decade I have traveled more by airplane than by train or bus, but the reason for doing so is mainly because the nature of these (long distance) trips.
The best mode of transportation depends on the distance traveled and the transportation infrastructure. For short distances a car or bus is usually the best option. For medium distances the choice is between a (high-speed) train or plane. For intercontinental trips an airplane is the only realistic choice.

In case of France the TGV can be a reasonable alternative for a domestic flight when you consider the door-to-door travel time. Considering the CO2 emission targets most countries committed to, and considering that in France most electricity is generated by nuclear power stations, it doesn't seem to be totally insane for them to promote the train at the expense of short flights. However the biggest downside I see is that by forbidding short flights it takes away competition from the train, which almost inevitably leads to higher prices and poorer service.
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #65 on: April 14, 2021, 03:07:08 pm »
[...]
You almost talked me into one, are you a car salesman in your day job?  :D

No :-)  I've also never bought a car new, and probably never would.

I do like some of the modern safety features listed above. They've just become universally available in the last few years, but some older cars do have them.

I bought my current car in May last year when I returned to New Zealand after working for some years in Moscow and then San Francisco. If I don't travel again I'll probably use it for ten years at least.

- 2008 Subaru Outback, ~$6500 with 55000 miles.
- 2.5 litre turbo engine, 265 HP, 5 sp auto, ~28 mpg highway (actual), AWD
- camera-based dynamic cruise control
- precollision alert (but auto braking only if cruise is engaged)
- lane departure warning
- TPMS

No reversing camera or Airplay. Those can be added from 3rd parties if wanted.

The money saved compared to a new car buys a LOT of fuel.

I'm with you on that...  I like cars and own several of them, but they are all older models with a lot of "life experience" -  and I am paying less than a single new car payment for comparable fun!

Cars still cannot be made disposable, so they can be kept alive pretty much as long as you are willing/able to work on them.
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #66 on: April 14, 2021, 03:08:47 pm »
As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)

"Unification", as in the "United" States?  - it took a civil war to do that, if I remember my history correctly...

You don't.

Are we talking about the same civil war?   You know, the one fought between northern states loyal to the Union and southern states that had seceded to form the Confederate States of America?

 

Offline Bassman59

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #67 on: April 14, 2021, 03:11:53 pm »
Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

This isn't said enough.  You can buy a new Corolla or Civic for only slightly more than the inflation adjusted base price of a 1981 Ford Escort (base price $5500, or $17.5k today vs. $20k for the corolla).  Even though the average person drives considerably more miles than in the 1980s the new car will last 3x as long, be incredibly reliable yet require almost no maintenance and will be dramatically safer with far lower emissions and better fuel economy even than the manual, much less the automatic which was crap.  All this translates to a cost of ownership that is probably *half* of an economy car from the 80s..  And of course comfort and convenience will be far beyond what the 80s had to offer.

The reason the average new car costs nearly $40k isn't because cars got more expensive, it is that people are buying more expensive cars -- giant SUVs with leather seats from luxury brand names with all the bells and whistles.  And to some extent that is even rational: people are spending more time than ever in their cars, and the cars are lasting much longer.

I always buy new cars, and I buy them rarely. I'm not one of those people who trades in a vehicle every three years, or worse, just leases a car. And I don't buy the giant SUVs.

The reasons for buying new:

1. Buying a used car means buying someone else's problems. Why is this person selling an 8-year-old car? What's wrong with it? Or, more to the point: what's wrong with it that is not apparent but will cost me $2,000 in the next couple of months?

2. There's a big lie everyone keeps telling: "a new car loses ⅓ of its value the moment you drive it off the lot." Well, maybe ... but then, why are cars advertised as "high re-sale value?" Those two assertions are at cross-purposes. Now walk into a used-car dealer and look for a 3 year old model with low mileage -- the typical lease return -- and you'll be shocked by the price. It's not a significant discount from new, and if you're borrowing, the cost of a loan for a used car is significantly more than for a new car. Dealers regularly advertise near-zero interest rates for new cars, but a used car? My local credit union offers a 5% rate for used cars. Do the math, and the total cost ends up about the same. So get the new car with the new-car warranty and the odometer at zero.
 
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Offline YurkshireLad

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #68 on: April 14, 2021, 03:24:42 pm »
Your used car logic is flawed. Used cars have high resale because dealers offer you ridiculously low prices when you trade yours in for a new one and then add a huge markup. No-one should buy a used car from a dealer at the price they advertise, except in those cases where the vehicle is sold as-is and the price should be lower.
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #69 on: April 14, 2021, 03:30:11 pm »
Don't forget also, that car makers have to explain to consumers why the average price of a new car in the USA is now north of $36,000...   the explanation will be along the lines of how much more technology there is, and how much better the cars are, etc. etc. -   but if you go back to first principles, they just get you from A to B, same as they always did, but with many more expensive components to keep alive!

That's purely a matter of choice by car buyers.

You can get a pretty amazing brand new Toyota Corolla for US$20,025 (plus delivery and other bullshit). It's got:

This isn't said enough.  You can buy a new Corolla or Civic for only slightly more than the inflation adjusted base price of a 1981 Ford Escort (base price $5500, or $17.5k today vs. $20k for the corolla).  Even though the average person drives considerably more miles than in the 1980s the new car will last 3x as long, be incredibly reliable yet require almost no maintenance and will be dramatically safer with far lower emissions and better fuel economy even than the manual, much less the automatic which was crap.  All this translates to a cost of ownership that is probably *half* of an economy car from the 80s..  And of course comfort and convenience will be far beyond what the 80s had to offer.

The reason the average new car costs nearly $40k isn't because cars got more expensive, it is that people are buying more expensive cars -- giant SUVs with leather seats from luxury brand names with all the bells and whistles.  And to some extent that is even rational: people are spending more time than ever in their cars, and the cars are lasting much longer.

You both should come to europe and see the situation here.
- Additional emission related components with questionable benefits (tires and brakes are already polluting more than the engine at least since euro6, studies available from the EU) that drives up the cost for little practical gain are mandated by law. You also have to fill the Adblue tank now.
- Additional ADAS mandated by law (which is actually good) which will require more systems as the time goes
- Base prices inflated because incentives if you give in an older car (my old punto was valued 600euro, could have been 6000 two years later because law)
- Base prices more inflated because they want you tied in with financing, you get a big discount, which is what the base price used to be a couple of years ago, but even if you add insurance and maintenance you end up paying even more, and most cars you can't get by paying upfront
- Because of LAW car actually will last less. I got an used 2014 skoda octavia (crazy good car, way better than my girlfriend's newer golf in every aspect, from driving to maintaining of engine and cleaning interiors.) which is EURO5 and by the time it will be 10yo i won't be able to go to most cities in my country, let alone germany or france, which would be fine if public transport would be the same as milan or berlin everywhere, but we know it's not. You end up finishing payng your 84month financing plan -really, this crazy- and you have to change your car right away. or get a new one and restart financing every 3 years, and you'll never stop paying to rent something.

This is what they want you to do - essentially, subscribe to your car.  They don't like "independent thinkers" that keep older cars running and are therefore not paying their "tax".
 

Offline snarkysparky

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #70 on: April 14, 2021, 03:30:22 pm »
Yeah, buy the car new.  Take good care of it and drive it like an old man.  It will last forever.

The trouble the car companies have is they have to design it well enough so that the teenage driver will at least get past the warranty.  Barely past..
A reasonable driver can make a car last a long time.

360k miles on my 04 rav.  Still running like a dream.  mostly ..
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #71 on: April 14, 2021, 03:32:00 pm »
If you are technically competent, used can be a great deal.  You buy cars that the original owner couldn't be bothered to deal with, and either couldn't find or couldn't afford someone who could locate the faults.  My best so far is a car I bought for well under half market because of a variety of niggling problems.  Which turned out to be an intermittent PCB connection and an unconnected harness.  Still driving that one nearly 200,000 miles later.  These types of things are increasingly common as cars become more and more electronically dependent.  The classic auto mechanic is out of his league in these issues.  New breed, electronically savvy mechanics are growing more common, but there still aren't enough to service all the problems out there.  My son found a similar deal, purely mechanical, on a car that wouldn't hold coolant.  A new, under $80 water pump fixed the problem. 

You can get stuck in situations like this, but too many people just throw their hands up and give up.

 

Offline phil from seattle

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #72 on: April 14, 2021, 03:50:15 pm »
As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)

"Unification", as in the "United" States?  - it took a civil war to do that, if I remember my history correctly...

Homo Sapiens is a complex species!

No, the US Civil War was about one group exiting a union.  Or, wordsmithing it, Disunion.
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #73 on: April 14, 2021, 04:00:15 pm »
Huawei blames US for global chip supply crunch: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Huawei-crackdown/Huawei-blames-US-for-global-chip-supply-crunch

Quote
he [Xu, chairman of Huawei] believes there will be companies willing to invest in chip manufacturing to satisfy the needs of Huawei and other Chinese companies while maintaining compliance with U.S. rules. 
"If it can be done ... and if our inventory level can help Huawei to last until that time, then this would be how we address the problems and the challenges we face," Xu said.


Basically, that would mean Western corporations losing the Chinese semiconductor market entirely...   followed by losing other markets when the new Chinese products are made available at a much lower cost, based on past history.

I guess there must be some intelligence behind Trump's decisions, but I am having a hard time spotting it...
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Out of stock. The world is ending?
« Reply #74 on: April 14, 2021, 04:03:20 pm »
As long as this thread continues to be mostly off track...

I don't care what flavor it is - extreme nationalism is a disease that can kill or seriously damage the host. Ask the Austrians how Anschluss worked out for them. And, am I the only one who sees irony in the word "unification"? (look up anschluss if you don't understand my point)

"Unification", as in the "United" States?  - it took a civil war to do that, if I remember my history correctly...

Homo Sapiens is a complex species!

No, the US Civil War was about one group exiting a union.  Or, wordsmithing it, Disunion.

We may be talking about a different civil war?   The outcome of the one I am referring to was that the secessionists were made to rejoin the Union, and in fact the result of that still stands today?

 


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