> 45 nm is still comparatively big and ancient, even consumer CPUs with much smaller structures already last way longer.
Do they? We are talking about 24/7 operation at elevated temperatures here (105/140deg.C). Consumer CPUs are not operated at such temperatures; temperature management in the consumer CPUs is a big thing for a reason. Note that lifetime decreases with temperature exponentially.
Speaking of failure mechanisms, there may be many; besides the relatively obvious FLASH failure/leakage (which again is not a thing in the consumer CPUs), it may be also contamination from or through package (which again in the consumer CPUs is very different and way more expensive) and
electromigration, which again may impact analog structures (again generally absent from consumer CPUs) much more than purely digital ones.
Also, the ST limitation is to be read from a statistical point of view: in semiconductors, the usual measure is failures within 1E9 hours of operation (i.e. approx. one failure per 10 million devices in 100 hours which is roughly a week) - hardly is there a cohort of ten million PCs running at high gear for several years, and would there occur a failure once a week in there, one would hardly attribute that particularly to processors being "worn out".
> How can ST characterise the 2 year lifetime? Could it be 1 year instead in some cases?
Through
accelerated testing: they simply bake them at high temperatures while running, and estimate the effect at lower temperatures from that, using Arrhenius equation. It's again a statistical method, i.e. "in some cases" is part of the result as of course some spread is expected and lifetime is really a number where the failure-per-1E9-hours rises from sub-one to few ones, i.e. it's not that if you bake the part to 105deg.C it will fail when the clock rolls over exactly 2 years. This method also utilizes data from partial tests on similar structures (e.g. running various, including unrealistically high, currents through a thin conductor which is part of a testing structure purpose made for this kind of tests using the same process than what's used to produce the chips).
Btw. the 'G4 (again 45nm)
suffers from the issue, too, although apparently significantly less. I haven't seen any such information about the other 45nm STM32 ('U5, 'H5), but I personally would assume the 'G4 AN applies to them, too, and try to stay at the safe side. It's probably obvious that I am not ST insider nor do I represent $M++ of purchasing power which would get me such information from ST (even if that would most probably be under NDA, too).
This all is of course just speculation from the information which is public. And, as speculations go, there's no point in drawing any other conclusion than just simply taking it into consideration and avoiding the circumstances causing them (i.e. either stick to 90nm designs, or avoiding running at the highest powers). I am not aware of ST publishing information about thermal data regarding heatsinks mounted on the package, and given those packages are not designed to have heatsinks mounted on them, I wouldn't expect ST ever publishing such information, as that would put them into risks when some step in mounting the heatsink (e.g. involving unexpected/untested chemicals and/or forces) would actually shorten the lifetime or lead to catastrophic failures. Nonetheless, if one can live with these risks, one can relatively simply characterize/estimate the effectiveness of such solution using the on-chip temperature probe.
JW