It also depends on your contract with particular manufacturer. A large company or a one that relies alot on long term availability of components (cough... automotive..cough...) can get a supply assurance for more than 25yrs. Of course if it happens that you are the last customer buying particular part, and you are doing so in say 1k/yr quantity you can expect MASSIVE price increase (up to the point when you invest your big bucks for design validation and redesign the product).
how this works (theory):
-manufacturer announces 'NRND' status
-customers do not use the chip for new designs
-demand for the chip decreases as more and more old designs are withdrawn from customers' production
-manufacturer ramps down production to satisfy needs of customers still buying the part and increases the price
-some of the customers see the price increase and trigger product redesigns, others do not
-manufacturer issues a withdrawal notice with time gap as agreed with customer
-customer has time to calculate demand for the chip until they can accomplish the redesign and buy that number of chips
-chip is withdrawn
how this works (practice):
-manufacturer announces 'NRND' status
-customers still use the chip for new designs because that's what their customer requires or because designers/programmers are familiar with it
-demand decreases only a little, because people still use the chip for new stuff
-manufacturer ramps down the production which causes price increase, but most companies will happily pay slightly bigger price since they usually make large profit on electronic product anyway
-price increases until it hits the point where it actually makes financial sense to do a product redesign and validation (validation can costs hundreds of thounsands of $$)
-manufacturer further ramps down the production and issues withdrawal notice
-customers' management has their ass on fire (they have agreement for continuous supply of product to their customer for like 20 more years, which is not unusual for some industries) and they want to secure a stock.
-this makes higher management at customers even more unhappy, because company has to suddenly buy MANY already expensive chips.
-this happens to all companies which causes terrible lead times for the chip (90 weeks, anyone?), and of course manufacturer does not ramp the production up
-customers' customers see that product may go unavailable so they want to make some safety stock which results in increased demand on product
-chip buyer has suddenly increased demand for the chip and they run out earlier than they have planned. There is a backlog with end product
-finally someone from management has their ass on fire hard enough that they buy the chip from obscure source (chinese brokers, old-new stock, etc)
-quality of end product hits the floor
-chip buyer gets mollested/sued by end customer for bad quality and they finally redesign the product (incorrectly, because there is a manager with a whip standing next to each designer)
-[20 years later]
end-customer: our agreement is expired
chip-buyer: ok, how many pcs have you bought in last 10 years?
e-c: ummmm....500?
c-b: we have put $5M into redesigns and were selling products to you for $30 a piece as agreed....
e-c: ok, let's talk about the product XXX which had similar availability problems 5 years after the previous one....
You get the idea