For the future people reading this thread let me put a history of some of the embedded platforms I've used for hobby purposes and lessons learned:
1) PIC16F84 + RS232 programmer - I paid a lot of money for the ancient chip (it was 10 years ago and it was already ancient). It needs crystal and caps to be able to do something. Spent most of the time fiddling with wires, getting the chip in an out of the programming socket, reading assembler code examples.
Firmware upgrade time took about 2 minutes, including chip swapping.
Lessons learned: get the newest pin-compatible chip. Try to aim for integrated oscillator and wide operating voltage range. Go for the biggest memory given the same footprint.
2) AVR Butterfly - this was a complete dev platform based on an AVR Mega169. It was pretty similar to how Arduino is today BUT it had also some necessary peripherals included: display, buttons, piezo, battery. I spent most of the time trying to set up the toolchain and study the incredibly complicated examples (for a beginner) to make something useful. I picked it up again two years ago was able to program some stuff on it with the experience I gained in the mean time.
Firmware upgrade time took about 30 seconds, as I remember.
Lessons learned: integrated hardware helps a lot, so it pays to buy a thing that has most of the stuff you want included. You will want an LCD and buttons, you will want easy USB uploading. Toolchain and user support makes all the difference for a beginner.
3) PIC16F628 + PicKit2 - pretty rewarding experience because there was already a lot of support back then (5-6 years ago) for PIC MCUs. The pickit is especially nice because it can power the breadboard project, view the outputs on its signal analyzer, view the debug data on its RS232 terminal. Whenever you feel like experimenting with a new PIC just pop out the old chip from the breadboard and plug in a new one. Then spend some time rewiring because every pin is in a different place.
Went through MPLAB, asm, HiTech Picc, SourceBoost, back to MPLAB X because no toolchain provided exactly what I wanted for specific projects. SourceBoost had a nice IDE but the compiler was not free and the simulator was buggy. MPLAB had an accurate simulator but awful IDE. Microchip's ASM compiler was free but what hobbyist uses assembly? (except for fun or challenge). PICC was nice but VERY limited in its free version and costs a lot of money for the paid version (as far as I remember).
Firmware update time: about 15 seconds, I had to manually switch to the PicKit tool.
Lessons learned: a tool that offers the basic electronics bench tools is well received. Ok, a soldering iron and a multimeter might be in every house (though not necessary) but a nice power supply, signal analyzer and scope are not. Productivity and learning go up as fiddling time goes down. Switching compilers and IDEs is a pain, every one has different coding conventions, shortcuts, names for pins.
4) MSP430 launchpad - I don't remember ever using it. I got it two years ago because it was cheap. I might go back to it, see the stellaris section.
Lesson learned: unless the new dev platform offers more than the previous platform you are used to it will stay unused. In my case the low-power stuff wasn't very interesting and the board wasn't particularly powerful compared to the PICs I used. I also had to learn a new IDE (TI proprietary stuff) and coding style.
5) Stellaris Launchpad - this one stayed in my drawer as well for a few months. Then I watched some tutorials and got interested in its capabilities. After installing the toolchain I saw that it was actually Eclipse in disguise, a tool I've used almost every day for the past 8 years or so.
The board is quite overpowered but has a pretty low community support so I had to struggle with it. What kept me going was the familiar Eclipse environment and STEP BY STEP debugging. I cannot overemphasize the importance of this, being able to step through your code and check the memory and registers after each line. And on the REAL unit, not in the simulator.
Oh, firmware uploading time is about 2 seconds, the time it takes for the project to build.
Given that I know understand what the Stellaris[ware] ideology is like, I might go back to the MSP430 to use it for low-cost, low-power projects. It's most of the times cheaper than having your own design.
Lessons learned: choose a tool with a well-supported IDE. If you don't know what, choose Eclipse, it's pretty much industry standard and free, with support for a lot of languages from ASM to PHP and really nice code automation features. Choose something with step-by-step debugging whenever possible, it will make life a lot easier.
6) Arduino - I don't have one and will probably not have one unless it's very cheap or absolutely needed for something. BUT, it would be first on my beginner recommendation choice. It is like I recomend iPads to non-tech savy friends seeking advice for a tablet, even though I haven't used iOS in years.
It has the best community support, most hardware projects that you can just copy and paste, every add-on imaginable and bearable tools.
I think the only downside is the price, you are practically paying a premium for all this stuff. However, once you are confident enough you can build your own 'Arduinos', which are actually just a bootloader on a 3$ chip and some surrounding stuff.
That still leaves the problem of shields, which have again a pretty high markup just for bearing the 'shield' or 'arduino compatible' tags. But again, with consumption comes volume and competition which helps to bring the prices down and quality up.
I do have some other stuff in my drawers that I've never touched (like TI Chronos) so it makes sense to buy once and buy smart.
The MikroE stuff is very nice, but Arduino is now like an industry standard and I would choose a good community support over an good commercial support any time.
Phew, that'a long rant, I might be getting bored.