3rd photo:
I've recently tried to modulate the IR LED.
Here I'm doing 1kHz at 20% duty.
Highlighted is the signal pattern on there is a water droplet passing by.
In this case the average current is within my power budget.
However, I'm not really sure if I can count the drops using this approach.
As long as you have a clear change in signal, you can certainly sense and count.
You should repeat the captures for all expected ambient light conditions, as unwanted light will certainly affect this, and some mounting apertures would help reject stray light.
It would help to have the LED and Photo transistor part numbers.
Addit : if you need more immunity from lighting, you could also look at the IR receivers designed for Code Learning (or IR repeaters, they look similar)
https://www.vishay.com/en/ir-receiver-modules/Those have wider bandwidth/faster response than the data burst IR receivers, and their shorter range of ~ 1.8m is still well above your target distance.
Their Icc of 350uA gives you a reference point for your Photo transistor too.