Long-term robustness of Soviet and Russian nuclear armaments

[SiliconWizard]

If it's on Twitter, then it must be reliable.

[SeanB]

All USSR made parts, from the relays to the components, to the wiring and the PCB and connectors. A lot are clones of Western technology, like the precision resistors, based off Vishay parts, and the relays are all copies of Western avionics styles, and the wet slug tantalum are really only able to be made that way efficiently, the cheaper USSR made ones are exactly the same as the west ones, just you can see to the right the big green cans of the 1000uF 10V plus massive solid slug tantalum power supply capacitors, exactly copies of the Vishay parts, just green painted instead of transparent.

[cdev]

You must mean meters, not kilometers, am I right? Still, thats pretty scary. At least I am scared.

Russians are building the weapons with expectation that there will be poor maintenance. During the discussion about decreasing of amount of nuclear warheads there was an issue that Russian ICBMs had the target locations hard wired inside. Simple, quick and reliable - extremely dangerous if fired incidentally. Some modifications were officially done, but the information that was to it was somehow confusing.

During the storage of tactical warheads in Czech (and probably also in Poland, Hungry and NDR were such bunkers) they were stored in pressurized inert gas, in the temperature controlled environment and regularly checked. In case of the conflict (maybe that is the activation of the nuclear forces about which is Putin talking) the warheads had to be delivered and mounted to the rockets in different place. Now it is there a museum Javor 51. Several information about the USSR's ICBMs are in videos about missile silo in Ukraine.

As mentioned before, the most critical part of the nuclear weapons is the timing of the explosions of the multiple conventional explosives - instead of heated wire for initiation the evaporation of material with high current is used (that is the reason why Krytron exports are embargoed). Rest is not so much critical, since all other components can be redundant.  Yes it is important how high it will explode, but the precision of the ICBMs in the range of km is good enough (and not only for Australia  ).

My expectation is that the Russian ICBMs are build to hit the target with 10-100km precision and sending big amount of them should ensure that it will be hit, all of this in favor of reliability. I know that everyone shows how precise their technology is, but I do not expect that it can be extrapolated to the all rockets (even of the same time).

[m3vuv]

whats the saying you cant polish a turd.

[SilverSolder]

whats the saying you cant polish a turd.

Thousands of used car salesmen disagree vehemently! 

[cdev]

Today, their domestic digital tech is at 1990s level

Saw a video analysing their chip industry history; currently, it's lagging behind almost 2 decades, technology-wise. I seriously doubt this will improve in the next years, as ASML equipment is extremely high in demand and certainly won't end up in the USSR. So far, they have been using TSMC to manufacture their own more modern developments (lagging behind many years as well), certainly not any more. China might jump in, but that might provoke hefty sanctions, so - probably not.

Ukraine really changed everything. maybe they don't even realize yet how much. We're certainly seeing this, though. Many European countries are likely in the line of fire, and still haven't understood the implications.

It hadn't been like this in a very long time.  NASA is certainly going to have to make some changes.

[cdev]

whats the saying you cant polish a turd.

Not in their case. Shit, it must really suck to be stuck there. Lots of smart Russian young people now trying to figure out a plan B for their lives right now.

[virtualparticles]

During WWII,  a hundred year old fortification (manned by raw recruits and pensioners), armed with a handful of 40- to 50-year-old torpedoes designed in 1866 of Austro-Hungarian manufacture, destroyed a heavy cruiser so new, its crew was still finishing training...   the last known operational use of a Whitehead torpedo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Dr%C3%B8bak_Sound

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitehead_torpedo


The moral of the story is that discounting old weaponry can be an expensive mistake...

Technology in Russia has come a very long way since the breakup of the Soviet Union and the semi-Westernization of the economy. The technical colleges in Chelyabinsk and Tomsk are top notch. It's hard to tell how much of this modernization has made its way into the military though. I would say at least that their RF and mmWave technology is on par with the US.

[vad]

Tomsk State Uni is ranked 601-800 in Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2022. Chelyabinsk State Uni is not even mentioned.

My alma mater MIPT (the 2nd highest ranked Russian university in that ranking) is 201-250. It used to be “top notch” technological Uni during 1980s (a Soviet MIT), but the quality of education has fallen since Soviet times. 

I can’t comment much about the quality of Russian RF and millimeter Wave stuff on battlefield. I would not be surprised if most of the comm equipment that Russians use in Ukraine was made in China.

[bdunham7]

I would not be surprised if most of the comm equipment that Russians use in Ukraine was made in China.

I think the problem they're having is that it was made in the 1960s, not that it was made in China.  But the unsecured phones they use when their comm equipment doesn't work are made in China.  So you're right! 

[vad]

I think the problem they're having is that it was made in the 1960s, not that it was made in China.  But the unsecured phones they use when their comm equipment doesn't work are made in China.  So you're right! 

The 1960s Soviet radios required two men to carry and a portable generator to power
Radios that Russian soldiers carry in Ukraine, as seen on YouTube, are walkie-talkie sized.

[metrologist]

I heard on the radio that their missile tech today could reach anywhere before civilians would even know it's coming. I thought at least the US had some defense system but I guess not.

[themadhippy]

I thought at least the US had some defense system

its a normal misconception,defense budget actually means attack budget

[bdunham7]

I thought at least the US had some defense system

its a normal misconception,defense budget actually means attack budget

Well, to be factual, there are ballistic missile defenses that we know about, including the whole Aegis system, the GMD interceptors in Alaska and California and THAAD where it is available.  The known capabilities of these known systems appears limited, but they exist and apparently work to some degree.

Then there are the things we don't know about, and the US black defense budget (unidisclosed) is larger than either the entire UK or Russian defense budget.  That's if you count the explicit black budget where they acknowledge that it is undisclosed.  There are cases of redirection, so the black budget might be even more.  Hopefully we're getting something for that money...and defense would be nice.

[LaserSteve]

There is an Aegis Cruiser parked off the East Coast for a reason. :-)

[vad]

I heard on the radio that their missile tech today could reach anywhere before civilians would even know it's coming. I thought at least the US had some defense system but I guess not.

There were no major technological breakthroughs or drastic changes in Russian missile capabilities since the late 1980’s. Russia’s strategic forces are still a combination of land-based ICBMs, sub-launched ballistic and cruise missiles, and air-launched missiles (the nuclear triad).

There was some hype in the news recently about new Kinjal missiles that Russian propaganda misrepresented as hypersonic missiles. The Kinjal is a modified short-range ballistic missile Iskander that can be launched from a plane. Contrary to the propaganda’s claims, both Kinjal and Iskander are normal ballistic missiles that travel parabolic trajectory, with some added capabilities to perform evasive maneuvers during terminal flight stage. There is nothing novel in such maneuvering reentry vehicles (MARVs). The earliest MARVs were designed in 70s for American Pershing II.

A true hypersonic missile does not travel parabolic trajectory by definition.

[vad]

There is an Aegis Cruiser parked off the East Coast for a reason. :-)

I am not sure how good the Cruiser will be in intercepting ballistic missiles traveling along great circle over the North Pole.

[bdunham7]

I am not sure how good the Cruiser will be in intercepting ballistic missiles traveling along great circle over the North Pole.

The Aegis system is not intended to do that and none if it's known capabilities include that AFAIK.  The interceptors intended for over-the-pole missiles are based in Alaska. 

[dietert1]

The problem with rocket defense is low efficiency. Recently Palestinians demonstrated the failure of iron dome when firing hundreds of rockets within a short time. After a recent attack in Odessa it was reported they shot down 2 of 7 Russian cruise missiles. In case of an attack with nuclear weapons this isn't good enough.

Regards, Dieter

[todorp]

The problem with rocket defense is low efficiency. Recently Palestinians demonstrated the failure of iron dome when firing hundreds of rockets within a short time. After a recent attack in Odessa it was reported they shot down 2 of 7 Russian cruise missiles. In case of an attack with nuclear weapons this isn't good enough.

Regards, Dieter

These were Kh-101 sub-sonic. Try doing the same with the newer Kalibr super-sonic ones. Just stressing the point...

[MegaVolt]

These were Kh-101 sub-sonic. Try doing the same with the newer Kalibr super-sonic ones. Just stressing the point...

The Kalibr(caliber) turned out to be an ordinary rocket. Judging by the fact that they were used against Ukraine.

[cdev]

There are no new methods of nuclear fission products, its still the same dirty old power and dirty old men , just more profitable now.

It was going to be about more nukes all along, you all knew that..

[m3vuv]

We may have the answer to this pretty soon with the way things are going in the ukraine !

[bdunham7]

The problem with rocket defense is low efficiency. Recently Palestinians demonstrated the failure of iron dome when firing hundreds of rockets within a short time. After a recent attack in Odessa it was reported they shot down 2 of 7 Russian cruise missiles. In case of an attack with nuclear weapons this isn't good enough.

If your definition of 'success' (Iron Dome) or 'good enough' (ballistic missile intercept) is that the defense should be an impenetrable shield, then you will be always disappointed.  Iron Dome is a maximal success IMO and expecting better than that is not realistic.  2 out of 7 for what was expected to be a vastly outgunned Ukrainian military is a morale boosting success, but militarily only marginally helpful.  It's still something, especially if you were one of the two targets.  The full suite of US missile defenses may score better than 2 in 7, but I don't think even the most optimistic would expect it to do nearly as well against a Russian nuclear attack as the Iron Dome has against the bottle rockets from Gaza.

[vad]

I really doubt that. The nuclear threats is a bluff to deter Free World from supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. This trick no longer works. See what equipment is being shipped and pledged to Ukraine by many countries.

Vladimir Putin is a spoiled rich SOB, who enjoys his splendid life, who controls wealth over $200B, likes to spend his time at billion dollar mansions and aboard of sumptuous yachts with displacements only rivaled by sunken Cruiser “Moskva”. He takes care of his health very well, he is terrified to come closer than 30 feet away from any visitor, many of whom had to quarantine 14 days before each visit.

With intelligence CIA and Mi6 proved to have in Kremlin, the very time Vladimir tries to reach out to his launch codes will the last time he saw Kabaeva and their three children, the last time he saw his other three daughters. There will be no more pole dancing in his private harem, no more playing ice hockey with Alex Ovechkin at private underground skate rinks. A cruise missile with a low yield warhead will end this party really fast. He knows that, and therefore he will never use nukes, he will dig in and transform Russia into another North Korea. I would call that country FNNK (Further North from North Korea).

Edit: to bluff like that you really need a poker face. With the joy and richness that Putin demonstrated over 20 years nobody takes his bluff seriously.

And PS. I am Russian and I am ashamed and angry at what Russia is doing in Ukraine.