Long-term robustness of Soviet and Russian nuclear armaments

[dietert1]

To be honest, those things do not depend on a single person. Russia is a nuclear power, and russian military have that option in the end. For military decision makers it is nothing but a strong weapon. Anybody trying to talk this away is a dreamer.
The Ukraine conflict isn't ready yet, but in my personal opinion i am afraid US american strategy is faulty. Once i read that the US is the only power able to impose military action at any location on the planet within 24h. But nowadays even North Korea can do it within an hour or so. And the images of the Afghanistan withdrawal are still present.
There is no realistic way the US will save Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea and - last but not least - Europe in case of military conflict. What happens if nuclear weapons fall onto Kiew and Odessa tomorrow, in a similar attempt to terminate the killing as in Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

Regards, Dieter

[bdunham7]

To be honest, those things do not depend on a single person. Russia is a nuclear power, and russian military have that option in the end. For military decision makers it is nothing but a strong weapon.

Lots of things can boil down to one person and history shows that they often do.  How different would things be if Stalin, Putin or Genghis Khan had died as infants?  Who knows.  And using nukes is a political decision and threshold that everyone knows has broader consequences.  It isn't just a big bomb.

There is no realistic way the US will save Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea and - last but not least - Europe in case of military conflict. What happens if nuclear weapons fall onto Kiew and Odessa tomorrow, in a similar attempt to terminate the killing as in Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

Yes, the argument that if you are not infinitely powerful, you are infinitely weak.  How a fully involved WWIII will turn out I don't know, but do you want to be the one opposed to the US?  As for what happens if Ukraine gets 'test-nuked'--I don't know, you don't know and Putin doesn't know.  Keep an eye on Whiteman AFB in Missouri if that happens.

[dietert1]

All i wish as a European is not being opposed to Russia. We do not have a similar problem with the US, i mean as far as i know.
One of the problems with nuclear weapons is that afterwards one may not be able to find out where it came from (stealth technology). Two days ago i saw a front page comment (maybe in Die Zeit) demanding national nuclear weapons for Germany. And the fact that the meeting at the US headquarter in Rheinland-Pfalz was not held in the Nato headquarters is another indication how serious the situation is right now. No bluff.

Regards, Dieter

[m3vuv]

at least for me if the brown stuff hits the fan,it will be over in a flash as conningsbe air base is only about 6 miles away,thats our main qra base,there has been a lot more activity the last couple of weeks so imagine the ruskys have been doing a lot more probing of our airspace recently.

[CatalinaWOW]

The whole MAD thing we did (are doing?) during the cold war presumed that leaders of nuclear powers would make rational decisions.  There have been several leaders in the last decade or two that very much call that assumption into question.  You don't need to favor any particular political school of thought to agree with this observation, though radicals of one sort or another will say that their guy isn't one of those.

These times are way too interesting for me.

[cdev]

at least for me if the brown stuff hits the fan,it will be over in a flash as conningsbe air base is only about 6 miles away,thats our main qra base,there has been a lot more activity the last couple of weeks so imagine the ruskys have been doing a lot more probing of our airspace recently.

[ogoun]

Credit is a sacred trust, it's what our free society is based on. Do you think they give a damn about their bills in Russia? 🤣

[m3vuv]

In regards to the last post,i realy dont see what that has to do with russias old milatary hardware or new for that matter,thats what i thought this thread was about,not music lyrics,wasnt that what the original post about?,or do you just have itchy fingers??

[cdev]

I was trying to dramatize the phrase "when the shit hits the fan"

I'm currently watching the 1964 film Mondo Africa, which I was surprised to find on Youtube
 A historical document..It has all kinds of footage in it.. "Sad"

When the shit hits the fan is right

[ogoun]

just trying to briefly bring some humour to what is a very serious and somber thread... I guess you missed the reference.

Cheers,
Pete

[cdev]

Some people fetishize credit. Many reject it  completely, seeing that its a scam. They just pay cash for things.

In regards to the last post,i realy dont see what that has to do with russias old milatary hardware or new for that matter,thats what i thought this thread was about,not music lyrics,wasnt that what the original post about?,or do you just have itchy fingers??

Whocares if they cant borrow, maybe they dont deserve trust? Thats their problem. Don't trust them!

(If they clearly want to steal the world, you shouldnt!  IMHO. )

[MegaVolt]

Taking loans at 20 percent or more is almost suicidal. Therefore, they take loans in the most difficult situations when it is impossible otherwise.

[cdev]

Taking loans at 20 percent or more is almost suicidal. Therefore, they take loans in the most difficult situations when it is impossible otherwise.

Banks these days reserve the right to adjust the loan rate with almost no notice. And they do it, too!

[cdev]

Taking loans at 20 percent or more is almost suicidal. Therefore, they take loans in the most difficult situations when it is impossible otherwise.

Theres much more going on right now. Digital payments/enslavement is the FUTURE!


We WON. Stop sharing anything.

[LaserSteve]

At one time the Russians tried    the "triplet" MIRV.  Three smaller warheads splash down in a triangle around the target with varying degrees of accuracy but nearly the same arrival time. Gets rid of the accuracy and fratricide problem. IF one works, groovey for them. IF all three go full yield  then target got nailed by a phased array.  Odds are decent if A fires but if   B or C timing fails the other  ones fire by Fratricide at low yield. .  "Quanity has a Quality All is Own" , according to Stalin.  The Triplet makes you wonder if at the time they knew they had reliability or accuracy problems or if the phased hit was very attractive for some reason.

Oh well..Either way, may all Nukes rust in Peace.

Steve

[Cerebus]

I suspect that the triplet MIRV tactic was more about missile accuracy than warhead reliability. Early ICBMs were not particularly precise munitions. Picking the R-16 (service period 1961-1976) at random, it had a CEP of 2.7 km necessitating a massive 3-6 Mt warhead to guarantee an effective hit on its target. Several lower yield warheads spread across a small area would be just as destructive, improve the probability of destroying the designated target and be more economical to manufacture.

[Terry Bites]

Its a bluff- the prevailing winds are a east and south. So eat sh** Putin!

[Vovk_Z]

There are what appear to be western world parts on that driver board as well.   The pinkish brown resistors look very familiar from the 80s. The Tantalum Caps are either western or a very good clone.

I almost sure they are not western parts. They may be clones of some western parts, but they definitely were made in USSR. E.g. cylinder axial tantalum caps look like oxide-semiconductor К53 type.

[David Hess]

I almost sure they are not western parts. They may be clones of some western parts, but they definitely were made in USSR. E.g. cylinder axial tantalum caps look like oxide-semiconductor К53 type.

Or any of the hermetically sealed axial dry or wet solid tantalum parts.  Besides aerospace, military, and high reliability applications, they were also common in high end commercial and industrial equipment built in the 60s and 70s.  I have never seen one fail.  I am sure the Soviets made equivalents to them.

[virtualparticles]

I would not be surprised if most of the comm equipment that Russians use in Ukraine was made in China.

I noticed a Baofeng radio hanging on the belt of one of the Russian battlefield colonels.

[Terry Bites]

If it were not for the current Political Situation in the Ukraine, this thread would have never started. So say what you want, it is a political issue. Then so is chipageddon, international shipping costs and alt energy etc.. Anyhow, lets hope their nukes are all cardboard and rust.

[Stray Electron]

And the fact that the meeting at the US headquarter in Rheinland-Pfalz was not held in the Nato headquarters is another indication how serious the situation is right now. No bluff.

Regards, Dieter

   Most Europeans and the Ukrainians just don't get it!  Until Russia attacks a NATO country, NATO is NOT going to get involved.  PERIOD! END OF DISCUSSION!  The Ukrainians are demanding otherwise but it's not going to happen and the Ukrainians are just pissing into the wind if they think that they can use public pressure to force NATO to get involved. But individual NATO countries can, and are getting involved, particularly the U.S. and Germany.  That is why that meeting was held at a U.S. base in Germany and not at a NATO base.  That VERY PUBLIC press conference that was held right in front of the very large "Ramstein Air Base" sign and was a clear message to everyone, and particularly to Russia and to Ukraine, that the U.S. and Germany are fully supporting Ukraine and that under the current circumstances, NATO is not going to get involved.

   But the minute that a Russian bomb or missile lands in Poland or one of the other NATO member countries, it's going to look like the Gulf of Tonkin Incident all over again!  The U.S. has a long history of putting up with aggressive annoyances from other countries but all it takes is one wrong move to trigger a massive U.S. response.

[phred01]

And PS. I am Russian and I am ashamed and angry at what Russia is doing in Ukraine.

yes agree wholeheartedly
Here are a few insights into Russian attitudes the most notable is the culture is basically feudal in nature ...... no regard for human decency in the face of sheer imperial objectives.
1 Safety personal working in hazardous situation on paper they can be very stringent but in practice this goes out the window because of expediency ie working on radars.....the transmitter can be left on
2 Decommissioned Nuclear powered vessels are scattered in grave yards around NE arctic just rotting....out of sight out of mind... far away from Moscow & St Petersburg
3 At lest 30% of missiles have failed in the Ukrainian war and some never reached the intended targets and failed to detonate
4 Russians have buried Nuclear waste in shallow trenches far away urban centers......out of sight out of mind... far away from Moscow & St Petersburg.
So if Adolf Putin / little Stalin uses Nukes there will be huge number of self goals before any retaliation by NATO or US
My hope there are some cool heads in the Russian military that prevail

[TimFox]

I was disappointed to learn that the "ancient Chinese curse": "May you live in interesting times!" is not authentic.
It works, though.

[cheater]

So I thought I'd necro this topic because this seems fairly relevant: Asianometry's video on the current state of Russian nuclear ice breakers.

What does it tell us about their ability to support other nuclear devices?



Here's a nice breakdown of which ones are currently still in service: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-powered_icebreaker

It looks like a lot of "new" nuclear projects are happening in Russia, either started recently or getting started just now. Sarmat missiles, Project 22220 ice breakers, Project 10510 ice breakers. I wonder if the same trend exists with their power plants.

This also seems to tell us that weapon designs are for better or worse new and untested designs. Even if everything is done by the book, the device still might just fizz off due to some practicality no one thought about back in the 1950s.