To some extent you can rely on abs. max. being somewhat conservative, i.e. it's rated 38V max continuous, in the same way the diode is rated 26V max continuous; breakdown is always some margin above there. You don't know by how much, of course, and they never specify breakdown of the regulator.
Clamping is also at Ipp. What are your surge conditions? If much more relaxed (e.g. automotive pulses other than ISO-7637-2 pulses 1 and 5), expect tight clamping, closer to Vbr(max). Conversely, if you don't have much pulse to handle but it's very intense (e.g. IEC 61000-4-5 as might be applied to long DC lines), you might be closer to the 8/20us waveform (not defined for this SMBJ but others have it), where peak voltage can be several times higher (MOVs are competitive!), simply because the energy is relatively low at the short duration.
If you do need to withstand pulses like load dump, consider a voltage limiter or electronic switch/fuse approach.
Tim