Interesting experiment

thanks for posting. With a bit of work, it could be good enough for pump control.
It looks like the sense electrode needs more (metal) area to get larger counts and more range. The wire's PVC insulation must be a factor, PVC dielectric constant is ~3 compared to water ~80, acting like an air gap is around the wire's conductor, so the capacitance is much less. Maybe more than one U-loop. That's my theory but I would have to model it or do the physic's math.
A bare stainless steel rod or tube (with a coupling capacitor to prevent any electrolysis) would be worth trying.
The graphs can predict failure of the pump, or float switch, drain hose etc.
Although I had a start capacitor short and the pump was locked-rotor staying powered up, and heated up the sump water quite a bit. That was a weird failure. Another was the outlet drain hose popped off and water dumped right close to the foundation wall, and cycle time was crazy short. Every 10 minutes the pump was on but it wasn't raining out.
You really need a high-high level alarm, pump run timer, as part of an embedded solution.