Hertz Buys 100000 Teslas $4.2B +50 000 for Uber. Avis expanding EV too

[sandalcandal]

The business details are fascinating:  usually, rental companies keep the cars for a short time before selling them as used.  With the current strange shortage-induced markets for new and used cars, they may have some deal with Tesla for that part of the contract.

Maybe part of the deal is that they'll actually get 100 000 BEVs in the next ~1yr unlike trying to buy from less established, lower experienced, lower production volume makers? The reasons given in the Oct 28 CNBC interview seem to cite Tesla's capability as the reason for picking Tesla.

[sandalcandal]

Also, Tesla market cap has exceeded $1T and kept up there (so far). 

They will get totally wrecked in any market correction.

Even with the number of cars they project to sell there is no possible justification for this stock price. How many more cars does Ford sell, at what profit, and look at Ford's market cap.

The stock market is insane.

Plenty analysis by large professional investment firms that put the target price around where it is now. All do analysis of Tesla not following the same business model as legacy auto. You need to account for greater vertical integration and resultant profit margins for vehicle sales then add on their other business lines (Solar, insurance, AI etc.) and speculate they will also be successful.


Source:https://youtu.be/KgdjfV6gcZY

TLSA closed at $1114 today!! $1.1T market cap!

[sandalcandal]

Hertz also entering partnership with Uber to offer 50 000 Teslas for Uber drivers in the US
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uber-partners-with-hertz-offer-50000-tesla-rentals-us-ride-hail-drivers-2021-10-27/
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/uber-rent-tesla-partnership/

Also looks like they plan to increase the fleet size further to 150 000 over the next 3 years in response to the deal with Uber and public interest
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/hertz-says-it-could-provide-150000-teslas-uber-up-an-initial-50000-2021-10-28/
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/hertz-says-it-may-expand-supply-of-teslas-to-uber-to-150000-2021-10-28

Tesla Model 3 also topped overall vehicles sales (not just electric) in EU for the last month and not by a small margin. That's a vehicle that's not even made in the EU currently.

https://www.theverge.com/2021/10/25/22744481/tesla-model-3-tops-sales-charts-europe-electric-vehicles

Some opinions and commentary from Sandy Munroe on Hertz purchase.

[nctnico]

Hertz also entering partnership with Uber to offer 50 000 Teslas for Uber drivers in the US
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uber-partners-with-hertz-offer-50000-tesla-rentals-us-ride-hail-drivers-2021-10-27/
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/uber-rent-tesla-partnership/

Also looks like they plan to increase the fleet size further to 150 000 over the next 3 years in response to the deal with Uber and public interest
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/hertz-says-it-could-provide-150000-teslas-uber-up-an-initial-50000-2021-10-28/
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/hertz-says-it-may-expand-supply-of-teslas-to-uber-to-150000-2021-10-28

Tesla Model 3 also topped overall vehicles sales (not just electric) in EU for the last month and not by a small margin. That's a vehicle that's not even made in the EU currently.

I've found that table too but as you can see from the other graphs sales number vary wildly. If you look up April's graph, you'll notice Tesla isn't even in the top 10 where other models show sales increases of 400% to 500%. All in all you can only draw a conclusion from numbers that summarise sales from an entire year. The monthly sales can be highly skewed due to things like shipping frequency. What if Tesla's cars for Europe all arrived in September to be delivered to waiting customers which ordered the car long before?

[sandalcandal]

I've found that table too but as you can see from the other graphs sales number vary wildly. If you look up April's graph, you'll notice Tesla isn't even in the top 10 where other models show sales increases of 400% to 500%. All in all you can only draw a conclusion from numbers that summarise sales from an entire year. The monthly sales can be highly skewed due to things like shipping frequency. What if Tesla's cars for Europe all arrived in September to be delivered to waiting customers which ordered the car long before?

August 2021 numbers

https://twitter.com/JATO_Dynamics/status/1444917811822796802/photo/1

<71% decrease (<350% increase) maximum difference in the Tesla Model 3 quarterly sales at the most in the past ~2 years (11 quarters)

Source: https://twitter.com/JATO_Dynamics/status/1454380061423964160

The point is more that the strength exists and there is change occurring.

https://www.jato.com/evs-outsell-diesel-vehicles-in-europe-in-august-for-the-first-time-ever/
https://www.jato.com/ev-revolution-hits-new-milestone-as-tesla-model-3-becomes-europes-best-selling-car-in-september/
Yes sales vary significantly but never before has an EV outsold ALL other new vehicles in a month, that makes it a milestone. So happens it was also a Tesla that did it.

[nctnico]

The point is more that the strength exists and there is change occurring.

Up to a saturation point where there are no more buyers for which a BEV makes sense. Also the graph for low emissions includes (gasoline) hybrids and fuel cell vehicles.

[3roomlab]

wut? JP morgan? $215? 

[sandalcandal]

The point is more that the strength exists and there is change occurring.

Up to a saturation point where there are no more buyers for which a BEV makes sense. Also the graph for low emissions includes (gasoline) hybrids and fuel cell vehicles.

But the trend it not one showing saturation. Different stat but the Tesla Model 3 is also most definitely not a hybrid or fuel cell vehicle.

[nctnico]

The point is more that the strength exists and there is change occurring.

Up to a saturation point where there are no more buyers for which a BEV makes sense. Also the graph for low emissions includes (gasoline) hybrids and fuel cell vehicles.

But the trend it not one showing saturation. Different stat but the Tesla Model 3 is also most definitely not a hybrid or fuel cell vehicle.

No, but the chart you posted includes a wide variety of low emission vehicles which includes hybrids and hydrogen cars as well so it doesn't prove an increasing market share for BEVs.

[sandalcandal]

But the trend it not one showing saturation. Different stat but the Tesla Model 3 is also most definitely not a hybrid or fuel cell vehicle.

No, but the chart you posted includes a wide variety of low emission vehicles which includes hybrids and hydrogen cars as well so it doesn't prove an increasing market share for BEVs.

And you have evidence that BEVs aren't increasing market share and it's all driven by hybrids and hydrogen?

[f4eru]

includes hybrids and hydrogen cars as well so it doesn't prove an increasing market share for BEVs.

You can continue denial, and living in the past, we don't care.
FYI, it includes PHEVs only, not old style dumb hybrids, because those are powered exclusively by gas.

hydrogen ... market share

Hydrogen and market share in the same sentence. 

[nctnico]

But the trend it not one showing saturation. Different stat but the Tesla Model 3 is also most definitely not a hybrid or fuel cell vehicle.

No, but the chart you posted includes a wide variety of low emission vehicles which includes hybrids and hydrogen cars as well so it doesn't prove an increasing market share for BEVs.

And you have evidence that BEVs aren't increasing market share and it's all driven by hybrids and hydrogen?

No, you are not reading correctly what I wrote. I wrote: the graph you linked to doesn't prove an increasing market share for BEVs. That is it. After looking up some numbers is seems the ratio PHEV / BEV is 40% / 60% but this may easely shift if more hybrids are sold with a plug (due to tax incentives).

[Siwastaja]

That's surprising. Here they have essentially no competition, there are other EVs but none of them are anything like a Tesla in terms of performance. This region is crawling with them, I see them every day. It's unusual to go to a parking lot in a shopping center or supermarket and not see 5 or 6 of them parked there. Lots of wealthy software people around here though.

Exact same here, Tesla3 is #1 selling battery EV which can be seen both from statistics, and on the streets. Maybe Netherlands (I still can't write NL because that means Soviet Union in Finnish so it's just too confusing) is a special case or nctnico is just dreaming. Next thing that happens is that Tesla declares bankrupt and all cars on the streets run on hydrogen. In the dream, that is.

[nctnico]

That's surprising. Here they have essentially no competition, there are other EVs but none of them are anything like a Tesla in terms of performance. This region is crawling with them, I see them every day. It's unusual to go to a parking lot in a shopping center or supermarket and not see 5 or 6 of them parked there. Lots of wealthy software people around here though.

Exact same here, Tesla3 is #1 selling battery EV which can be seen both from statistics, and on the streets. Maybe Netherlands (I still can't write NL because that means Soviet Union in Finnish so it's just too confusing) is a special case

The Netherlands is a special case indeed; it is the leading / most mature BEV market off the world. What happens here, is going to happen in the rest of the world at some point.

[wraper]

The Netherlands is a special case indeed; it is the leading / most mature BEV market on the world. What happens here, is going to happen in the rest of the world at some point.

Did you ever hear about existence of Norway?

[james_s]

The point is more that the strength exists and there is change occurring.

Up to a saturation point where there are no more buyers for which a BEV makes sense. Also the graph for low emissions includes (gasoline) hybrids and fuel cell vehicles.

We are a long, long way from that. Millions of cars away from that saturation point. Cars wear out, they get wrecked, gasoline cars hit a saturation point probably 70 years ago at which point nearly every family had a car and yet cars have continued to sell.

[nctnico]

The Netherlands is a special case indeed; it is the leading / most mature BEV market on the world. What happens here, is going to happen in the rest of the world at some point.

Did you ever hear about existence of Norway?

That isn't a normal country as in (low) population density and wealth. An outlier like Luxembourg. AFAIK most people in Norway already have an outlet for their cars to keep the cars heated during the winter. Electricity is also cheap due to hydro power. That makes adoption to BEVs much easier. But still, Norway is a special case which you can't compare to other countries.

The point is more that the strength exists and there is change occurring.

Up to a saturation point where there are no more buyers for which a BEV makes sense. Also the graph for low emissions includes (gasoline) hybrids and fuel cell vehicles.

We are a long, long way from that. Millions of cars away from that saturation point. Cars wear out, they get wrecked, gasoline cars hit a saturation point probably 70 years ago at which point nearly every family had a car and yet cars have continued to sell.

You are missing the point. At some level the people for which a BEV is a sensible option to buy run out due to limits in the charging infrastructure and high cost of charging. Peope for which a BEV makes no sense will either buy gasoline (hybrid) or fuel cell car.

[wraper]

At some level the people for which a BEV is a sensible option to buy run out due to limits in the charging infrastructure and high cost of charging;

As if charging infrastructure does not evolve. For example Tesla is going to triple it's supercharger network within 2 years. Also the main mode of charging BEV is doing so at home.

those people will either buy gasoline (hybrid) or fuel cell cars.

Mentioning the latter while being concerned about charging cost and lack of infrastructure for EV charging is a bit ridiculous.

[james_s]

I guess it was inevitable that this thread turns into another one of those. Hydrogen is dead, that is obvious to anybody who looks objectively. I have never seen a hydrogen car on the road, not even one. I have never seen a hydrogen fueling station, there is a negligible number of them across my entire country, the vast majority are in a single state, California. The technology is irrelevant, it lost the "format war" years ago. Hydrogen fuel cell has as much chance of going mainstream as HD-DVD. Electric charging infrastructure is expanding rapidly, hydrogen is not expanding at all.

[nctnico]

At some level the people for which a BEV is a sensible option to buy run out due to limits in the charging infrastructure and high cost of charging;

As if charging infrastructure does not evolve. For example Tesla is going to triple it's supercharger network within 2 years. Also the main mode of charging BEV is doing so at home.

No, the main mode of charging is not at home (which I translate to: charging from your own outlet). Certainly not in densily populated countries like the Netherlands. You really have no idea on how much charging infrastructure is needed. About 30% of the charging points of the EU is located in the Netherlands. The Netherlands has by far the best charging infrastructure of the entire EU. Probably in the entire world. And yet it is not enough. Not by a long shot. Planners say that about 3 million charging points are required in the Netherlands which translates to 1 charging point per 3 cars if all cars are BEVs. At the moment there are only 80000 public charging points in the Netherlands. That number would need to increase over 35 times to support a fleet of 100% BEVs. Tesla doubling their super charger network may sound nice but it is a drop in the bucket. In order to interpret statistics you really need to put the numbers into the perspective of the big picture.

those people will either buy gasoline (hybrid) or fuel cell cars.

Mentioning the latter while being concerned about charging cost and lack of infrastructure for EV charging is a bit ridiculous.

Don't shoot the messenger. You can ofcourse have a personal opinion but (for example) there is an article in a newspaper today saying that the Dutch government wants to speed up lowering CO2 emissions from cars and hydrogen was specifically mentioned. Also the car industry still sees a future in hydrogen (see the annual KPMG automotive outlook). BMW is going to launch a new X5 model fuelled by hydrogen at the end of 2022. Germany is actually quite far with a nation wide hydrogen fuelling network. Based on those facts it is utterly foolish to think that there is no future for fuell cell cars. You simply can't reach that conclusion based on how things are evolving right now. There is too much going on.

[ejeffrey]

I'm very surprised to hear that they did not get a substantial discount on such a large purchase.

I wonder if the cars will have their performance electronically limited? Even the base model is a lot more sporty than a normal rental car.

Tesla makes a pretty big deal about one price for everyone and it is listed on their website. They don't haggle, give employee discounts, or let their local showrooms set a different price than the website.  They do have the affiliate program but it is available to everyone and listed on their website.  So I'm not surprised they didn't offer hertz a discount.  Practically they are also still somewhat battery production limited so agreeing to sell a large volume at a low price would just cost them money.

[sandalcandal]

After looking up some numbers is seems the ratio PHEV / BEV is 40% / 60% but this may easely shift if more hybrids are sold with a plug (due to tax incentives).

Got a source for that? Indeed, government incentives heavily biasing PHEVs (as with the latest policies in the USA) could see shifting PEV market more towards PHEVs unfortunately. However, the current trend is strongly towards greater market share from BEVs. In the absence of questionable government policy and with the rapid pace of advances in battery technology making battery electric vehicles more affordable, I don't think PHEVs have a strong future.

IMO PHEVs are a mediocre transition technology for lowering (but not eliminating) emissions compared to BEVs at best and at worst a crutch for legacy auto to cling to profitability whilst struggling to make progress to zero emissions.

Here's a source from me on BEV/PHEV split. Ironically, Netherlands is actually even stronger than EU in growth of BEV vs PHEV.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Europe

And another one:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/625010/electric-vehicle-market-share-in-eu-annual/

[nctnico]

After looking up some numbers is seems the ratio PHEV / BEV is 40% / 60% but this may easely shift if more hybrids are sold with a plug (due to tax incentives).

Got a source for that? Indeed, government incentives heavily biasing PHEVs (as with the latest policies in the USA) could see shifting PEV market more towards PHEVs unfortunately. However, the current trend is strongly towards greater market share from BEVs. In the absence of questionable government policy and with the rapid pace of advances in battery technology making battery electric vehicles more affordable, I don't think PHEVs have a strong future.

IMO PHEVs are a mediocre transition technology for lowering (but not eliminating) emissions compared to BEVs at best and at worst a crutch for legacy auto to cling to profitability whilst struggling to make progress to zero emissions.

Which zero emissions? In many countries a BEV is emitting way more polution compared to a hybrid. With the electricity mix in the Netherlands a Tesla model 3 emits 5 times more SO2 compared to a Toyota Prius. NOx shows a similar picture. SO2 and NOx cause people to get sick and/or die right now. And for those claiming that a BEV doesn't emit inside a city: several cities in the Netherlands have beacons installed which make hybrids switch to full battery mode (if the hybrid is equiped with a receiver ofcourse).

[sandalcandal]

After looking up some numbers is seems the ratio PHEV / BEV is 40% / 60% but this may easely shift if more hybrids are sold with a plug (due to tax incentives).

Got a source for that? Indeed, government incentives heavily biasing PHEVs (as with the latest policies in the USA) could see shifting PEV market more towards PHEVs unfortunately. However, the current trend is strongly towards greater market share from BEVs. In the absence of questionable government policy and with the rapid pace of advances in battery technology making battery electric vehicles more affordable, I don't think PHEVs have a strong future.

IMO PHEVs are a mediocre transition technology for lowering (but not eliminating) emissions compared to BEVs at best and at worst a crutch for legacy auto to cling to profitability whilst struggling to make progress to zero emissions.

Which zero emissions? In many countries a BEV is emitting way more polution compared to a hybrid. With the electricity mix in the Netherlands a Tesla model 3 emits 5 times more SO2 compared to a Toyota Prius. NOx shows a similar picture. SO2 and NOx cause people to get sick and/or die right now. And for those claiming that a BEV doesn't emit inside a city: several cities in the Netherlands have beacons installed which make hybrids switch to full battery mode (if the hybrid is equiped with a receiver ofcourse).

Please either source or substantiate claims. The previous claims have not been well backed up.

[nctnico]

After looking up some numbers is seems the ratio PHEV / BEV is 40% / 60% but this may easely shift if more hybrids are sold with a plug (due to tax incentives).

Got a source for that? Indeed, government incentives heavily biasing PHEVs (as with the latest policies in the USA) could see shifting PEV market more towards PHEVs unfortunately. However, the current trend is strongly towards greater market share from BEVs. In the absence of questionable government policy and with the rapid pace of advances in battery technology making battery electric vehicles more affordable, I don't think PHEVs have a strong future.

IMO PHEVs are a mediocre transition technology for lowering (but not eliminating) emissions compared to BEVs at best and at worst a crutch for legacy auto to cling to profitability whilst struggling to make progress to zero emissions.

Which zero emissions? In many countries a BEV is emitting way more polution compared to a hybrid. With the electricity mix in the Netherlands a Tesla model 3 emits 5 times more SO2 compared to a Toyota Prius. NOx shows a similar picture. SO2 and NOx cause people to get sick and/or die right now. And for those claiming that a BEV doesn't emit inside a city: several cities in the Netherlands have beacons installed which make hybrids switch to full battery mode (if the hybrid is equiped with a receiver ofcourse).

Please either source or substantiate claims.

Just look up the total electricity production in the NL and the SO2 + NOx emissions (as registered by the government) due to electricity production from http://emissieregistratie.nl. I have shown the calculation before.