Author Topic: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...  (Read 29998 times)

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Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #325 on: December 29, 2018, 06:42:42 pm »
Yes you would think so but if you look at the media, any media, it is only "we are doomed CO2 levels are kill g us" stories.
For organizations with that much money, influence and power they do a lousy job, or is there another side to the coin?
I remember that for instance Royal Shell spent huge amounts of money in the 90s towards new energy solutions, it was stopped when it was found that the oil reserves were larger than thought but still they know that some day their model of earning money is stopping.
SAU the same, they are looking for new ways of economic growth beyond the oil era.

The best we can do IMO is investing the money in finding new cleaner ways of producing energy, the faster we find something the sooner the issue will be solved.
Sure, you'd be stupid not to diversify if you're deep into traditional resources. That doesn't mean you wouldn't also try to make the most of your existing investments. It's just sound entrepreneurship, or seen as such. Take it as far as you can before jumping ship.
 

Offline tggzzz

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #326 on: December 29, 2018, 06:43:19 pm »
@tggzzz: no, CO2 is not a pollutant.

Yes, CO2 is a pollutant.

I appreciate English isn't your native language, so here's a couple of definitions of "pollutant":
"any substance, as certain chemicals or waste products, that renders the air, soil, water, or other natural resource harmful or unsuitable for a specific purpose."
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/pollutant
"something that pollutes" and pollute is "to contaminate (an environment) especially with man-made waste"
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pollutant

Alternatively, if you are using a non-standard meaning of "pollutant", please define your meaning.

Quote
It won't kill you and the plants actually like it.

The plants may "like" CO2, but they don't like the temperature and climatic changes that go with increased CO2. See the reference @apis gave.
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
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Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #327 on: December 29, 2018, 07:00:28 pm »
The plants may "like" CO2, but they don't like the temperature and climatic changes that go with increased CO2. See the reference @apis gave.
Wrong again. Just like animals plants migrate as well. Climate change isn't something new on earth! The whole idea 'my father grew corn here and so will my grandchildren' is wrong.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2018, 07:02:35 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline apis

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #328 on: December 29, 2018, 07:11:46 pm »
The problem is that a lot of people own coal mines, oil wells, coal power plants, etc. They don't want us to stop using fossil fuel. Some of them are incredibly powerful like President Bush, President Putin and King Salman; others are just super rich like the Koch brothers in the US who finance a lot of anti-climate change stuff. Then we have lots of companies that are heavily invested in fossil fuels as well.
Do you have some substantiated proof of these claims that these people are actively trying to do this, or is this another wild conspiracy theory?
It's hardly a secret. I assume you didn't question that there is a lot of money in oil, coal and gas? Is it surprising the owners of those resources wouldn't wan't them loose value?

I would completely spam the thread if I would go into details but it's easy to google. Here are some more or less random quotes, all from the first page hits on google:
Quote
In June 2005, US State Department papers showed the Bush administration thanking Exxon executives for the company's "active involvement" in helping to determine climate change policy, including the U.S. stance on Kyoto. Input from the business lobby group Global Climate Coalition was also a factor.[3]
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Also according to testimony taken by the U.S. House of Representatives, the Bush White House pressured American scientists to suppress discussion of global warming[6][7]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_policy_of_the_George_W._Bush_administration

Quote
Prescott's connections and wealth helped his son, George H W Bush, make a fortune in the oil industry before he entered politics in the 1960s and eventually became the 41st president.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-12846098

Quote
It was called the “No Climate Tax” pledge, drafted by a new group called Americans for Prosperity that was funded by the Koch brothers. Its single sentence read: “I will oppose any legislation relating to climate change that includes a net increase in government revenue.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/03/us/politics/republican-leaders-climate-change.html

Quote
Koch is also long on the richest – but also the dirtiest and most carbon-polluting – oil deposits in North America: the tar sands of Alberta. The company’s Pine Bend refinery, near St. Paul, Minnesota, processes nearly a quarter of the Canadian bitumen exported to the United States – which, in turn, has created for Koch Industries a lucrative sideline in petcoke exports. Denser, dirtier and cheaper than coal, petcoke is the dregs of tar-sands refining.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/inside-the-koch-brothers-toxic-empire-164403/

It's a little harder with Putin since their government isn't as transparent:
Quote
The Kremlin source based his estimate on Putin’s alleged stakes in several companies, mostly in the oil sector. He said the Russian president controlled 37% of the oil company Surgutneftegaz, 4.5% of natural gas company Gazprom, and had substantial holdings in a commodities trader called Gunvor.
http://time.com/money/4641093/vladimir-putin-net-worth/?#

I'll leave king Salman as an excersice for the reader.

or not
Quote
Saudi Arabia fought hard to prevent the launch of negotiations on what became the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Further, Saudi Arabia has adopted a skeptical attitude toward climate change science, paying more attention to uncertainties and downplaying potential impacts. This was clear from its efforts to water down the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Assessment Reports, including the Second Assessment Report in 1996 and the Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.
https://agsiw.org/saudi-arabia-and-climate-change-from-systematic-obstructionism-to-conditional-acceptance/

US joins Saudi Arabia, Russia to weaken climate change report ::)
« Last Edit: December 31, 2018, 04:02:02 am by apis »
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #329 on: December 29, 2018, 07:16:05 pm »
Wrong again. Just like animals plants migrate as well. Climate change isn't something new on earth! The whole idea 'my father grew corn here and so will my grandchildren' is wrong.
You're essentially suggesting we just abandon large parts of the world as they become uninhabitable due to weather systems becoming more energetic. This inevitably leads to famine, as we'd lose huge swathes of agricultural land. This in turn will lead to a desperate struggle between the survivors for the remaining resources, probably triggering a world wide armed conflict. That's essentially the adapting to the circumstances you suggest. It sounds like a marvellous plan.
 

Offline Kleinstein

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #330 on: December 29, 2018, 07:19:33 pm »
The current models that are used for this have high inherent uncertainties.
It would be weird if they did not.
The climate models have quite some uncertainties. But the case of no or an opposite effect of CO2 is still very unlikely.

The uncertainty also does not make it better to burn more coal. It is more to the opposite: The expected damage from an increasing temperature is expected to go up faster than linear with the temperature. With uncertainty in the temperature rise we have to take the chance of a stronger effect serious as it would be much more damaging. So the larger the uncertainty the more careful we should be burning more coal.

Besides the temperature rise, there is also the PH of the oceans that is effected by CO2. Here the model is much easier to understand.

......
That is a fair point: unless the US, China, India, etc, also does something it doesn't really matter what a small country like  the Netherlands does. Someone got to be first though, and there are benefits to being first as well, but in the end there has to be some sort of international plan and agreement to limit GhG emissions or it won't matter.
Even small countries can have quite some impact. Though not as small as the Netherlands, the support for wind and PV in Germany from the late 1990 on gave quite a boost the the development of these source. This still helps installations from China to the US.
Especially China s doing quite a lot against rising CO2 emissions, though they slowed down in keeping the population in bounds.

India is a problem - not so much with the emissions, but with population growth. Some seem to forget about the dangers of over-population over there fear of climate chance. It gets very hard to keep CO2 in bounds if the population grows fast. Hear India really has to do quite radical steps - or chances are nature will do that.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #331 on: December 29, 2018, 07:21:10 pm »
Wrong again. Just like animals plants migrate as well. Climate change isn't something new on earth! The whole idea 'my father grew corn here and so will my grandchildren' is wrong.
You're essentially suggesting we just abandon large parts of the world as they become uninhabitable due to weather systems becoming more energetic. This inevitably leads to famine, as we'd lose huge swathes of agricultural land. This in turn will lead to a desperate struggle between the survivors for the remaining resources, probably triggering a world wide armed conflict. That's essentially the adapting to the circumstances you suggest. It sounds like a marvellous plan.
No. Other land will become suitable to grow food and yields can be improved. What never ceases to amaze me is that the Netherlands is the second largest exporter of agricultural products in the world. IOW: you can grow a sh*tload on a small piece of land if you put the effort in.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #332 on: December 29, 2018, 07:37:16 pm »
No. Other land will become suitable to grow food and yields can be improved. What never ceases to amaze me is that the Netherlands is the second largest exporter of agricultural products in the world. IOW: you can grow a sh*tload on a small piece of land if you put the effort in.
We're going to need some solid sources for other land becoming suitable and it being able to sustain the current and expected world population. We're constantly on the limit of what we're able to provide and massive amounts of upheaval isn't promising to do wonders.

It really seems you have an overly rosy view of the mess further global warming can bring. If it were as easy as "just move somewhere else" the world's scientists wouldn't worry as much as they do.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #333 on: December 29, 2018, 07:46:07 pm »
I'm just being realistic. The thing is that the changes aren't going to happen overnight. Rising sea levels won't cause a sudden mass migration but people will start to move inland. Existing farm land won't be useless from one day to the other. Needing more food will mean that more land will be cultivated and made ready for farming. Think about molten tundra. Higher food prices will make that worthwhile. Being poor will still suck but is that any different than today? Lots of people starving in Africa since the 1980's.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2018, 07:54:04 pm by nctnico »
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Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #334 on: December 29, 2018, 07:56:22 pm »
I'm just being realistic. The thing is that the changes aren't going to happen overnight. Rising sea levels won't cause a sudden mass migration but people will start to move inland. Existing farm land won't be useless from one day to the other. Needing more food will mean that more land will be cultivated and made ready for farming. Think about molten tundra. Higher food prices will make that worthwhile. Being poor will still suck but is that any different than today? Lots of people starving in Africa since the 1980's.
It is going to be fairly sudden, though. Many coastal areas are quite flattish, which means that beyond a certain point suddenly large areas start flooding. Compounding that is that most people around the world tend to live in coastal areas. This both means flooding and the subsequent displacement isn't a nice incremental affair. It's going to be fairly horrid and dramatic. Of course, just supposing that cultivated land is easily replaced is not really being realistic. Just wanting it to be true doesn't make it so. Do you have anything to back your ideas up?
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #335 on: December 29, 2018, 08:05:24 pm »
Define flattish... and you don't have to move if the sea is about to flood the land. Just built a wall or a dyke. Also flooding may become part of life. Look at Venice. That gets flooded at least once a year. Not to mention many cities in Europe along rivers which already deal with flooding. In Paris they close down the roads along the Seine when the water level gets too high. No biggy.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #336 on: December 29, 2018, 08:10:22 pm »
Define flattish... and you don't have to move if the sea is about to flood the land. Just built a wall or a dyke. Also flooding may become part of life. Look at Venice. That gets flooded at least once a year. Not to mention many cities in Europe along rivers which already deal with flooding. In Paris they close down the roads along the Seine when the water level gets too high. No biggy.
Venice is a terrible example of things working out, as they're frantically trying to figure out how to save the city before it gets swallowed by the encroaching sea. Claims it will all work out seem terribly naive considering the worries the informed scientific community around the world has about this. If it really were as easy as building dikes and moving a bit when you feet get wet, we wouldn't have heard about it in the first place. We really need a lot more solid sources to counter those of the scientific community at large for this idea to have any credibility.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #337 on: December 29, 2018, 08:17:48 pm »
You are still assuming something can be done about rising temperatures. Unfortunately the sun has also increased it's activity during the last century which isn't helping to keep the earth's temperature down. At some point you have to let go of conservatism. Venice just won't exist forever.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #338 on: December 29, 2018, 08:21:51 pm »
You are still assuming something can be done about rising temperatures. Unfortunately the sun has also increased it's activity during the last century which isn't helping to keep the earth's temperature down. At some point you have to let go of conservatism. Venice just won't exist forever.
Your "solution" is to sit tight and let everything go to shreds. That's not really a solution, is it? Regardless of whether anything can actually be done, the sensible approach is to at least try your hardest if the alternative is widespread pain and suffering. Displacement on a large scale has never gone without it.
 

Offline tggzzz

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #339 on: December 29, 2018, 08:31:58 pm »
Wrong again. Just like animals plants migrate as well. Climate change isn't something new on earth! The whole idea 'my father grew corn here and so will my grandchildren' is wrong.
You're essentially suggesting we just abandon large parts of the world as they become uninhabitable due to weather systems becoming more energetic. This inevitably leads to famine, as we'd lose huge swathes of agricultural land. This in turn will lead to a desperate struggle between the survivors for the remaining resources, probably triggering a world wide armed conflict. That's essentially the adapting to the circumstances you suggest. It sounds like a marvellous plan.
No. Other land will become suitable to grow food and yields can be improved. What never ceases to amaze me is that the Netherlands is the second largest exporter of agricultural products in the world. IOW: you can grow a sh*tload on a small piece of land if you put the effort in.

I didn't realise you were an expert on soil mechanics and farming. Where did you get that expertise?
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
Glider pilot's aphorism: "there is no substitute for span". Retort: "There is a substitute: skill+imagination. But you can buy span".
Having fun doing more, with less
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #340 on: December 29, 2018, 08:52:56 pm »
You are still assuming something can be done about rising temperatures. Unfortunately the sun has also increased it's activity during the last century which isn't helping to keep the earth's temperature down. At some point you have to let go of conservatism. Venice just won't exist forever.
Your "solution" is to sit tight and let everything go to shreds. That's not really a solution, is it? Regardless of whether anything can actually be done, the sensible approach is to at least try your hardest if the alternative is widespread pain and suffering. Displacement on a large scale has never gone without it.
Quite the opposite: as I wrote before: adapt  (or die). Adapting is far from doing nothing!

Also mass displacement due to rising sealevels or drought isn't necessary. It just takes infrastructure to keep the sea out and water in to allow to grow crops. The infrastructure will need to be adapted or build according to changing circumstances. This isn't rocket science. It just takes the politicians to see the problem and spend money on it.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #341 on: December 29, 2018, 09:16:08 pm »
Quite the opposite: as I wrote before: adapt  (or die). Adapting is far from doing nothing!

Also mass displacement due to rising sealevels or drought isn't necessary. It just takes infrastructure to keep the sea out and water in to allow to grow crops. The infrastructure will need to be adapted or build according to changing circumstances. This isn't rocket science. It just takes the politicians to see the problem and spend money on it.
Adapting is the mandatory part. Mitigating the causes of the problem is optional, but strongly recommended. Just keeping your foot on the pedal when you know a wall is coming up is for the foolhardy.

You keep being very cavalier about how easily the problems are solved or mitigated. You'll really need to provide more than "she'll be right" if that's going to have any credibility, especially considering your ideas seem quite different than those of most actual experts around the world. An example would be that the current strategy in the US is not to protect the coastal areas and to repair the damage caused by hurricanes and other disasters of similar nature. They opted for this approach because the US coastline is much too expansive to build extended coastal defences along its entire length. Yet your proposed solution is to do pretty much exactly that. With rising sea waters and ever more violent weather systems the defences you propose will need to be even more extensive and expensive. It'd probably be good to explain what you know that all the experts don't and provide a fair amount of fairly solid evidence to support it. Just handwaving the problems away isn't enough.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #342 on: December 29, 2018, 09:28:22 pm »
I don't have to prove anything. My ancestors have been battling with water for over 400 years in a country of which half lies below sea level. I'm just stating what is possible given there is money to throw at the problem. Actually Dutch waterwork companies are very active at the coast line of the Gulf of Mexico (for example: https://livingwithwater.com/blog/urban_water_plan/reports/ ). But sure, land that isn't worth protecting doesn't get protected. Why would anyone do that? Also the US approach is appearantly also to adapt and move away. The US is big enough to allow such a solution. IMHO you are way too much focussed on keeping things as they are right now (conservatism). That just doesn't hold up -climate change or not-.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2018, 09:34:10 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #343 on: December 29, 2018, 09:43:36 pm »
I don't have to prove anything. My ancestors have been battling with water for over 400 years in a country of which half lies below sea level. I'm just stating what is possible given there is money to throw at the problem. Actually Dutch waterwork companies are very active at the coast line of the Gulf of Mexico (for example: https://livingwithwater.com/blog/urban_water_plan/reports/ ). But sure, land that isn't worth protecting doesn't get protected. Why would anyone do that? Also the US approach is appearantly also to adapt and move away. The US is big enough to allow such a solution. IMHO you are way too much focussed on keeping things as they are right now (conservatism). That just doesn't hold up -climate change or not-.
Of course you don't have to prove anything. It just means your claims don't hold any water, if you'll pardon my pun. The US approach isn't adapting and moving away, it's repairing what's been destroyed. That's not a viable strategy in the long run as things get progressively worse. Protecting it all isn't either, so you'll inevitably get the displacement and all the massive negatives that go alongside it. That's not a solution by a long shot. That's just trying to stay afloat in the river of shit coming your way.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #344 on: December 29, 2018, 09:57:52 pm »
Maybe the people don't see the river of shit coming yet. I'm under the impression there is not much long term planning going on in the US anyway. But that doesn't mean this is true everywhere else. Water management is a well understood science. And even if land gets flooded it can always be reclaimed if necessary later on.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #345 on: December 29, 2018, 10:11:53 pm »
Maybe the people don't see the river of shit coming yet. I'm under the impression there is not much long term planning going on in the US anyway. But that doesn't mean this is true everywhere else. Water management is a well understood science. And even if land gets flooded it can always be reclaimed if necessary later on.
We can endlessly go back and forth, but if it all were that easy the experts wouldn't raise the alarm the way they do now. The scale and magnitude really are completely different than anything we've seen before. Anything we can do to mitigate the pain and suffering these large scale displacements are going to cause it welcome.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #346 on: December 29, 2018, 10:21:25 pm »
Agreed but I don't share your fear about instantaneous massive displacements or sudden extreme climate changes making land uninhabitable or unsuitable for farming . Sure last summer has been extreme in parts of Europe but there have been extreme summers (and winters) before. One's memory isn't a good guideline. You have to look at the numbers and long term trends. And measures can be built incremental so they don't cost a fortune. For example: in the Netherlands we are not raising the dykes by 2 meters so they are future proof for the next century. The dykes get raised to meet the current situation. If the water level rises then the dykes get raised more.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #347 on: December 29, 2018, 10:29:49 pm »
Agreed but I don't share your fear about instantaneous massive displacements or sudden extreme climate changes making land uninhabitable or unsuitable for farming . Sure last summer has been extreme in parts of Europe but there have been extreme summers (and winters) before. One's memory isn't a good guideline. You have to look at the numbers and long term trends. And measures can be built incremental so they don't cost a fortune. For example: in the Netherlands we are not raising the dykes by 2 meters so they are future proof for the next century. The dykes get raised to meet the current situation. If the water level rises then the dykes get raised more.
I'm not reporting from memory. I'm reporting what environmental scientists and agricultural experts tell us. An already unaffordable situation isn't going to get more affordable as it gets more extreme. It's nice the Dutch get to keep their feet dry, but the rest of the world is going to have serious and massive issues.
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #348 on: December 29, 2018, 10:34:31 pm »
Nico is right, if you can't save it you abandon it.
Here is a list of lost cities in our provence Zeeland a couple of hundred years ago, they could not do anything about it so that was it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_flooded_villages_in_Zeeland

Now here I go on a limb but looking at the devistation in the US of hurricane Katrina in 2005 if that happened almost every year, my guess is that people would leave and abandon the land.
There is just so much a community can take.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: My country is going to commit economic suicide ...
« Reply #349 on: December 29, 2018, 10:49:29 pm »
Nico is right, if you can't save it you abandon it.
Here is a list of lost cities in our provence Zeeland a couple of hundred years ago, they could not do anything about it so that was it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_flooded_villages_in_Zeeland

Now here I go on a limb but looking at the devistation in the US of hurricane Katrina in 2005 if that happened almost every year, my guess is that people would leave and abandon the land.
There is just so much a community can take.
The problem is that it's not the same place every time. The coastline is massive and the impact is felt in different places. Katrina was a bad one, but Sandy and others were really quite bad too. That will happen more and more as more and increasingly powerful hurricanes ravage the US coastline. Of course, the US is a fairly wealthy nation. Most nations will have much more trouble rebuilding anything. If you look at the costliest hurricanes in US history, just the 2017 hurricanes cost about $300 billion, or close to three Katrinas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_costliest_Atlantic_hurricanes
 


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