I drive a 25 year old car and it consumes less fuel and emits less CO2 than 90% of the new cars people are buying. The reason is really simple; gasoline engines were already in 1996 nearly as efficient as they ever can be, but cars were smaller.
No, not at all. ... Expect a 15% increase in efficiency ...
Yes, yes at all. This 15% increase is exactly what I meant by "nearly". We are in complete agreement regarding the numbers.
If you increase the efficiency by 15% and then weight and frontal area times drag coeff by 50%, you get a car that consumes 30% more.
This is exactly what can be seen. One of the most popular family cars used to transport people currently consumes 7.5 l/100km on paper (and some 8.5 in reality). It's an SUV which is unsuitable for driving in difficult terrain, and no one uses it for that. Yet that is what is most popular. My 25-year old car, which is not an SUV, consumes 5l/100km on paper (actually measured at 5.8 l/100km).
Large cars have just become popular, completely eating up all the engine improvements, and sadly, even beyond. The opposite should be happening, IMHO. Everybody should be driving something resembling a 1980's Nissan Micra but hybrid EV, or even better, just battery EV. Instead, even the Nissan Micra has become bigger.
Hybrids are even larger, so-called monster SUV category is where hybrid "shines" apparently. All the benefit from the technology has gone into size increase, not fuel savings.
People who do this shit deserve the gasoline price increases.
This size increase reflects in everything; emissions, living costs, parking space availability, etc. I can quickly name two parking halls where I work which are built in 1980's or 1990's that only work with 2/3(!) capacity with today's cars, because modern cars simply do not fit in the parking spaces (3 spots between each two pillars, but only 2 cars fit).
If someone told you they have came up with a 83% efficient SMPS to replace 80% efficient old version, would you tout this as some breakthrough miracle SMPS? No, you wouldn't. Yet this is the scale of internal combustion engine development during last 2-3 decades.