Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 136940 times)

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Online SparkyFX

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When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« on: December 26, 2017, 02:46:19 am »
Up until 100 years ago, electric cars were more popular than internal-combustion engine powered cars and were poised to become the standard method of transportation.  Most used NiFe or NiCd batteries.
And how did they control the power output smooth enough without losing too much power in the switch while driving (therefore potentially heating it up and burning, next to the loss of energy)? Not to mention charging those batteries.

The switches needed for that got available with the semiconductors used and available as they are today, the whole system relying on an electrical grid that simply did not exist back then. Those are very technical reasons. The first gas suppliers were indeed pharmacies, as they sold the benzine in bottles and had the necessary logistics infrastructure. That gave the whole idea of a gasoline car the necessary initial push - in Germany back in the days. Where is that chummy-chum?

I mean, there have been quite counter-intuitive decisions, like removing trolley busses from cities and now selling them as solution again or lamenting about the pollution caused by exhaust gasses inside cities. Yet personal transport and public transport is a different thing.

 

Offline drussell

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2017, 04:54:31 am »
And how did they control the power output smooth enough without losing too much power in the switch while driving (therefore potentially heating it up and burning, next to the loss of energy)?

Generally using switched rheostat sections and/or multiple motor windings or voltage stages.  Using multiple tapped parts rather than one big rheostat limits wasted power in the rheostat.

Some of the stuff from that era was actually rather ingenious.  You should read up on it more.  :)

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This drivetrain was the brainchild of George Westinghouse. The engine powers the generator, which creates a large magnetic force field be-tween the engine and drivewheels. There's no mechanical transmission. The driver moves a rheostat through four quadrants — a lot easier than shifting, and grinding, the straight-cut gears of the day — and the car moves ahead progressively, giving occupants that odd feeling you get when you try to push similar-pole magnets against each other. Both Enrico Caruso and John McCormack drove Owen Magnetics.

Owens were expensive and really sophisticated. They had an advanced, 24-volt electrical system when most cars had only 6 volts. And Owen Magnetics had a black box called "the brain." There's a big warning label right on it that reads, "Do not attempt to fix this or alter it. Only the factory can do this."

It isn't that difficult to do a reasonable job mechanically, though modern switching style supplies are more difficult.

 

Offline Don Hills

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2017, 12:29:55 pm »
... Why would you add a whole bunch of unnecessary, expensive infrastructure instead of just recording odometer readings at registration renewal time?  Many jurisdictions already ask for that information for various reasons, including just simply for statistical analysis.  It seems more logical to simply do that and then have a tax bill based on that, hopefully with the ability to pay monthly or something instead of one huge lump sum with the sticker shock that would make some people unable to afford to drive.  :)

The solution to every problem is not necessarily more electronics and the bureaucracy to support and enforce.

In New Zealand, diesel fuel isn't taxed at point of sale. It's taxed by mileage. Heavy vehicles have hubodometers (odometers bolted to one of the wheels) which are regularly read and the tax paid on the reading. Light vehicles such as cars are taxed on odometer readings. Odometer readings are checked and recorded in a central database at each regular "Warrant of fitness" (vehicle safety) check. I assume there are processes to check for evasion.
 

Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2017, 08:22:41 am »
Until gasoline powered cars proved to have more range and where easier to use despite the foul smell and noise.
Nope.
Gas cars were much less easier to use than electrics.
You had to warm them, fill them up with coolant (dreined after use), oil(open lubrication system with loss) and gas, start them with a handle.
The death to the electric car at the start of the 1900's was due to a simple factor: cheap gas. Much much cheaper than electricity at the time it seems.
Today, as the range is a 95% solved issue, the cost advantage is on a factor 3 on the side of the electric, so it will take 5-10 years for electrics to mainly replace gas.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2017, 08:29:41 am by f4eru »
 

Offline james_s

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2017, 08:40:12 am »
That and range. Electric cars worked in cities, but much of the US was (and is) vast rural areas where you might have a hundred miles or more between populated areas. Gasoline was much easier to transport in large quantities than electricity and even as late as the 1940s when gasoline was well established there were many rural areas that still didn't have electricity. Early gasoline cars could make the trip into town and back from a farm that may not have had electricity even if the car could store enough of it for the trip.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2017, 09:46:51 am »
Today, as the range is a 95% solved issue, the cost advantage is on a factor 3 on the side of the electric, so it will take 5-10 years for electrics to mainly replace gas.
That is a nice dream but it ain't gonna happen that quick and it might not even happen at all.

1) For many people a car is a big ticket item so they buy one which fits all their needs. This means that the car they buy also needs to be fit for usage on 0.1% of the trips they make. Range is what kills an electric car here. Local constraints like taxation on ownership and limited parking space drive the need to buy a car which fits all usages.

2) Today's Li-ion battery technology doesn't have a good price/weight/range ratio and charging takes too long. It will take a new/improved battery chemistry to the range and charge limitations. I'm pretty sure such a technology will go into production in the next few years but price will remain a problem. Not to mention the energy needed to produce the battery pack.

3) Bio-fuels aren't out of the picture yet. In the US several companies have factories running to produce 2nd generation bio-fuels (Poet-DSM for example) which use agricultural waste instead of seeds. Since we eat relatively very little of the plants a lot of bio-mass is left unused. A long time ago I ran some numbers on the conversion ratio they currently get and it seems you can cover 30% to 100% of the fuel needed from converting agricultural waste depending on fuel economy of the average car and amount of agricultural waste available in a country.

All in all I don't see myself buying an electric car in the next 20 years (basically 3 to 4 cars from my current car). A car which is capable running on pure ethanol is much more likely.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2017, 10:44:01 am by nctnico »
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Online EEVblog

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2017, 11:28:06 am »
Today, as the range is a 95% solved issue, the cost advantage is on a factor 3 on the side of the electric, so it will take 5-10 years for electrics to mainly replace gas.
That is a nice dream but it ain't gonna happen that quick and it might not even happen at all.

1) For many people a car is a big ticket item so they buy one which fits all their needs. This means that the car they buy also needs to be fit for usage on 0.1% of the trips they make. Range is what kills an electric car here. Local constraints like taxation on ownership and limited parking space drive the need to buy a car which fits all usages.

Electrics will be fairly niche for the foreseeable future barring some drastic price drop (don't see that happening bar a new battery innovation), massive government subsidies, or a huge oil shock.
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2017, 11:30:37 am by EEVblog »
 

Offline drussell

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2017, 12:32:42 pm »
All in all I don't see myself buying an electric car in the next 20 years (basically 3 to 4 cars from my current car).

 :wtf:

Seriously?  You're on an engineering site and you go through 4 cars in 20 years?

Apparently passion for electronics doesn't translate into other genres of physics?!

My last two vehicles are the 1984 and the 1998, purchased new...  No plans to swap anything out anytime soon...  They are working absolutely fine...  This April is the truck's 20th birthday since being picked up from the dealership...  I should buy it a paint job!  :)

Perhaps you are excessively lax in your maintenance schedules?  Egads!
 

Offline drussell

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #8 on: December 28, 2017, 12:37:32 pm »
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.

Indeed...  There are many issues to be resolved before the electric panacea will be realized. 

Many people do not seem to realize that in their head-long advocacy of the electric vehicle solving all problems for all time...  :palm: 

It is not nearly that simple, unfortunately...
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #9 on: December 28, 2017, 12:46:31 pm »
All in all I don't see myself buying an electric car in the next 20 years (basically 3 to 4 cars from my current car).

 :wtf:

Seriously?  You're on an engineering site and you go through 4 cars in 20 years?

Apparently passion for electronics doesn't translate into other genres of physics?!

My last two vehicles are the 1984 and the 1998, purchased new...  No plans to swap anything out anytime soon...  They are working absolutely fine...  This April is the truck's 20th birthday since being picked up from the dealership...  I should buy it a paint job!  :)
I buy used cars like I buy used test equipment: preferably with a defect which I can fix and with around 160k km (100k miles) on the odometer. That has proven to be a sweet spot considering value for money. After a thourough overhaul (tyres, shock absorbers, airconditioning, brakes and whatever else needs to be done) we drive them until around 320k km (200k miles) because at that point the expensive repairs + generic overhaul come around and it doesn't really make sense to pour more money into a car. How quick the kilometers add up depends on how much driving we do so some cars we have for 4 years, others for like 8 years. Rust is also something I have to consider because during the winter the roads get a liberal load of salt over here.

I'm finding new cars too expensive (something like 40% tax over here) and with an older used car I don't really care if it gets damaged a little bit. Given the places we drive in every now and then (like the infamous roundabout in the centre of Paris or narrow mountain roads) that is a good thing. Also safety and comfort are a concern. A newer car usually is safer and more comfortable compared to the old one.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2017, 12:59:34 pm by nctnico »
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Offline Fungus

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #10 on: December 28, 2017, 05:26:23 pm »
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.

Many people would be able to charge overnight at home. Shopping malls, businesses, etc. would be able to offer a charging service to attract customers. etc.

I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.

Not if charging can be done in parallel with common tasks like shopping/sleeping/working/eating. Remember: Electric cars also offer a lot of ways to avoid driving out of your way to go to a smelly petrol station every 500km.

It won't work for everybody but for many people it will balance out IMHO.

Also: A new battery tech might appear and change the equation overnight.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2017, 05:28:16 pm by Fungus »
 
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Online EEVblog

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #11 on: December 28, 2017, 05:36:01 pm »
Many people would be able to charge overnight at home. Shopping malls, businesses, etc. would be able to offer a charging service to attract customers. etc.

Sure, but still a HUGE number of people will get caught out.
And IME huger numbers of people park on the street outside their house so that's not possible.

Not if charging can be done in parallel with common tasks like shopping/sleeping/working/eating. Remember: Electric cars also offer a lot of ways to avoid driving out of your way to go to a smelly petrol station every 500km.

And how many people can do that?
How many spots are there going to be at work places? Shopping centres?
A few dozens, tops? A couple of percent of people get to charge, the rest miss out. Sorry, if say 80% of people switch to electric cars then this simply isn't going to be possible.

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It won't work for everybody but for many people it will balance out IMHO.

I'm guessing a few percent of the population, tops.

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Also: A new battery tech might appear and change the equation overnight.

Wake me up when it does.

And FYI, I"m hugely pro electric cars, and want to get one myself, by the practical engineer in me knows it's not going to go mainstream any time soon, it's not even close.
 

Offline james_s

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #12 on: December 28, 2017, 06:05:02 pm »
One of the most common arguments I see against electric cars is that they're not suitable for ALL of many people's needs, people really get hung up on the assumption that one car has to do it all. The thing is, most families have more than one car, virtually every couple I know has at least his and her cars, sometimes the kid has a car too, then sometimes there's an old truck out back, sometimes there's a motor bike in the garage, for a huge number of people electric is very feasible in place of one of the gas cars. Three of my friends now have pure electric cars as their daily driver, all three of them have wives who have gas or diesel cars, if they need to take a longer trip they simply use that car.

The charge time is a complete non-issue, they plug in the car when they get home from work and it's fully charged the next morning.

I suspect a solid 60% of Americans could get by just fine with a pure electric as one of two cars in the household. Of those that could, probably at least 70% of them will come up with every excuse there is to convince themselves it wouldn't work.

Regarding another comment, 4 cars in 20 years does seem like a lot to me. I bought a car with 225,000 miles on it for $500, drove it daily for 17 years and I'd still be driving it if not for getting rear ended by a semi. Got $6,000 for the car from the insurance due to it now being a classic and bought another similar car, hope to get another 17+ years out of it. If you take good care of a car it can last indefinitely until someone runs into it.
 
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Offline james_s

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2017, 06:07:42 pm »
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.

Indeed...  There are many issues to be resolved before the electric panacea will be realized. 

Many people do not seem to realize that in their head-long advocacy of the electric vehicle solving all problems for all time...  :palm: 

It is not nearly that simple, unfortunately...

What's more convenient than being able to simply plug in your car at night and have a full "tank" every morning, never having to go to a gas station again? I love my gas cars but man, they are nowhere near as convenient as an electric. Not even close.
 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #14 on: December 29, 2017, 12:19:17 am »
One of the most common arguments I see against electric cars is that they're not suitable for ALL of many people's needs, people really get hung up on the assumption that one car has to do it all.
My wife and I have equivalent cars which both need to be able to drive far and I think that is the same for many people.
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The charge time is a complete non-issue, they plug in the car when they get home from work and it's fully charged the next morning.
That only works if people can charge their cars at home. In densely populated areas that is impossible and people will depend on 'fast' charging stations. I have to park my car in the street. If I want to charge an EV from home I'd need an extention cord which is at least 50 meters long.
Quote
Regarding another comment, 4 cars in 20 years does seem like a lot to me. I bought a car with 225,000 miles on it for $500, drove it daily for 17 years and I'd still be driving it if not for getting rear ended by a semi. Got $6,000 for the car from the insurance due to it now being a classic and bought another similar car, hope to get another 17+ years out of it. If you take good care of a car it can last indefinitely until someone runs into it.
That greatly depends on how many miles you drive and how you value your own safety. My current car (a Ford) is near the 320k km/ 200k miles mark. What is needed to get another 160k km/ 100k miles out of it are: a new timing belt, new clutch, new shock absorbers (safety), airco overhaul (safety) and some other stuff like brake fluid and new power steering hydraulic lines. That will set me back around 1700 euro which is way more than the car is worth.  OTOH the car starts to rust at the wheel arches, the engine is using some oil, the gas mileage isn't that great and there is no guarantee nothing else vital will break down (over here we have annual mandatory vehicle checks which a car must pass to be road legal). All in all it is more sensible for me to stretch usage into 2019 and look for a different car then (which brings me back to my wife having an equivalent car we can use the same way so no hurry). I'm eyeballing a newer model with a 1 litre turbocharged engine but I need more info on reliability and issues. A newer car is likely to have safety improvements like ESP.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2017, 12:21:22 am by nctnico »
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Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #15 on: December 29, 2017, 01:04:38 am »
Indeed...  There are many issues to be resolved before the electric panacea will be realized. 
Many people do not seem to realize that in their head-long advocacy of the electric vehicle solving all problems for all time...  :palm: 
It is not nearly that simple, unfortunately...
What problems remain ?
Range has been solved.
Price has been solved.
Recycling has been solved.
Battery degradation is a non-issue.

Price is going down like crazy since years. The purchase price is about to cross the price of ICE cars in 2-3 Years. The 7-Year TCO is already lower than ICE cars on average.
Infrastructure buildup is following adoption rate without too much lag.

Problems are all solved, adoption is going up and up. the EV park is currently at 0.2% globally, and doubling every year. :)

https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf

That means that in 8 Years at the current rate, half the car park, and 80%+ of new cars will be EVs.
And we still wait for diesel restrictions in big cities, and carmakes will have penalties for producing too much ICE starting 2020, which could accelerate the adoption even more.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2017, 01:39:44 am by f4eru »
 

Online SparkyFX

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #16 on: December 29, 2017, 02:02:33 am »
Generally using switched rheostat sections and/or multiple motor windings or voltage stages.  Using multiple tapped parts rather than one big rheostat limits wasted power in the rheostat.

Some of the stuff from that era was actually rather ingenious.  You should read up on it more.  :)
It means the excess power is converted to heat in the resistor. That way you can only control motors up to a certain size using such a technology before that resistor burns - not to mention the significant loss of the stored energy in the control alone and the influence of overload on the vehicle leading to direct damage in motor or control (basically no motor protection existed back then). Does an internal combustion engine shred if you try to start with overload?
I mean Ferdinand Porsche came up with a internal cumbustion engine -> generator -> electrical motor as a way to propell tanks (VK 45.01 P) to circumvent such issues. Submarines and trains used to be driven that way too, until it was more practical to directly control power (SMPS style) or frequency (VFD style). In parallel there used to be diesel-hydraulic of course, all that just to be able to control the huge amount of output power as efficient as possible and keep the overall efficiency of the system high. Nuclear reactors in personal transportation left aside, which used to be the hype of the 60´s science fiction.

A system consisting of a internal combustion engine, mechanical transmission and clutch in that time was IMHO better scalable and provided more torque to replace horse carriages.

Without being a historian or trying to start a discussion about it, i guess WWII-logistics and availability to store and deliver energy played a huge role in what was the preferred type of propulsion later on, i guess that shaped the most part of what came to be. A technology adopted by a military also means that there is suddenly
a) an infrastructure
b) a huge amount of people trained to be e.g. a mechanic, i.e. experienced with it, able to repair and maintain that technology.
c) a form of propulsion that does not require a working electrical grid (at least for europe there was a lot bombed away and needed to be rebuilt)
So such decisions always have ripple effects which enable things to work that wouldn´t if thing had come different.

Not to mention that internal combustion engines can run on a wide variety of fuels, e.g. gasoline, diesel, alcohol (ethanol), wood gas, coal gas, natural gas, liquid pressurized gas (propane/butane), heavy oil, just to name a few. Don´t understand me wrong, the environmental impact of these varies, an ICE simply doesn´t run the majority of operating time in an ideal operation point, so even "clean" fuels might generate issues when burned under less than ideal conditions (the problem here lies in the system´s control of output power and the user as well), that´s where an electrical propulsion system has huge advantages.

Sure, but still a HUGE number of people will get caught out.
And IME huger numbers of people park on the street outside their house so that's not possible.
Just for info: there are quite some startups coming up with equipment converting street lamps to charging outlets. So that might change the picture a bit.

Quote
And FYI, I"m hugely pro electric cars, and want to get one myself, by the practical engineer in me knows it's not going to go mainstream any time soon, it's not even close.
It´s sad that the range extender (aka plug-in hybrid) doesn´t find as much traction as it should. It does combine the best of both and can even solve some issues by having the ICE run in practical ideal conditions all the time.
 

Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #17 on: December 29, 2017, 02:13:38 am »
It´s sad that the range extender (aka plug-in hybrid) doesn´t find as much traction as it should. It does combine the best of both and can even solve some issues by having the ICE run in practical ideal conditions all the time.
PHEV have the drawbacks of both technologies :
- Cost is high, you have to pack both techs.
- Efficiency in long rage is as bad or worse as pure ICE
- Weight is high, you schlepp that ICE engine around every day for no benefit
- Not much space left in the car
- Maintenance costs are high, especially on ICE engines that are not regularily used


It's clearly a stop gap measure, or for some niche drive profiles.
I would even say it's a stop gap measure designed for keeping the actual car makers in buisiness, not for saving costs.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2017, 02:54:41 am by f4eru »
 

Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #18 on: December 29, 2017, 02:19:44 am »
It means the excess power is converted to heat in the resistor. That way you can only control motors up to a certain size using such a technology before that resistor burns - not to mention the significant loss of the stored energy in the control alone and the influence of overload on the vehicle leading to direct damage in motor or control (basically no motor protection existed back then).
Yep, there's some waste, but usually it's only during acceleration, the resistors are not used during coast, then you use the multiple taps on the DC motor.
There are some tramways still in use with this technology at a peak power of about a megawatt.
it's quite robust if protected properly, and not very lossy if the DC motor has many taps (or offset brushes)
 

Online SparkyFX

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #19 on: December 29, 2017, 03:06:47 am »
PHEV have the drawbacks of both technologies :
Hah, right, of course it depends which/whose specs apply.

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- Cost is high, you have to pack both techs.
Once it is a competitive environment, yes, but so long cost and price often have not much to do with each other. In other words there are many examples in which the brand name sells.

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- Efficiency in long rage is as bad or worse as pure ICE
Imho thats more or less a question of measurement drive cycle compared to real life. Or comparison between each other. Most people can´t achieve the rated fuel consumption because of their driving habits or simply the amount of traffic around them, a generator decoupled from that and buffered almost guarantees ideal conditions. This application isn´t a single/static operating point.

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- Weight is high, you shclepp that ICE engine around every day for no benefit
The weight of a vehicle does not take the full downside in a vehicle that is able to recuperate energy from its kinetic energy. In a conventional ICE it would be converted to heat in the brake discs.

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- Not much space left in the car
It´s a question which customer should be served (again, specs), who it is designed for and which use case. The technology itself is scalable.

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- Maintenance costs are high, especially on ICE engines that are not regularily used
Less than in a conventional ICE, taking recuperation in account. What the car can´t do, is being clairvoyant. It can´t know if it makes sense to operate the ICE or not to minimise wear and tear without further information like a navigation route or button press.

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It's clearly a stop gap measure, or for some niche drive profiles.
I would even say it's a stop gap measure designed for keeping the actual car makers in buisiness, not for saving costs.
Imho yes and no, it´s not as if there was only one possibility toward which each and everyone needs to orient to. Diversity does make some sense, i think.
E.g. development effort put into small gas engines also propells small vehicles more efficient.
Exchanging a range extender with a fuel cell or "whatever" is simpler, as the rest of the vehicle is developed to run electrically. It´s not just the propulsion, it is heating, air condition and ventilation, power steering, brake system and so on that needs to be as reliable as it used to be. In a transition phase this is at least as important as the propulsion itself.

So, imho, as long as the magic wonder battery technology that does everything is not here yet, there still is a problem that it solves, especially as regulations get tighter and tighter (for a reason).
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #20 on: December 29, 2017, 03:55:00 am »
Problems are all solved, adoption is going up and up. the EV park is currently at 0.2% globally, and doubling every year. :)

https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf

That means that in 8 Years at the current rate, half the car park, and 80%+ of new cars will be EVs.
Keep on dreaming and when you wake up look for a term called 'market saturation' https://www.consumerpsychologist.com/cb_Diffusion_of_Innovation.html. The current EVs are like iPhones and due to limitations of range, charging and price EVs will stay that way for quite some time to come.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2017, 09:30:09 am »
Problems are all solved, adoption is going up and up. the EV park is currently at 0.2% globally, and doubling every year. :)

https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf

That means that in 8 Years at the current rate, half the car park, and 80%+ of new cars will be EVs.
Keep on dreaming and when you wake up look for a term called 'market saturation' https://www.consumerpsychologist.com/cb_Diffusion_of_Innovation.html. The current EVs are like iPhones and due to limitations of range, charging and price EVs will stay that way for quite some time to come.
He is right. Solid state lithium battery is just around the corner, and that will reduce the battery cost significantly. First we see a drop around 50%, in about 2-3 years, then some due to the optimization.
Yes, I am saying, that in 2-3 years, EV will cost less than ICE, though we will also see a range increase.
One has to be an really desperate to buy a ICE car, when the electric is cheaper to buy, cheaper to run and serves 99% of use cases.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #22 on: December 29, 2017, 09:37:02 am »
Seeing is believing. I've read too many times that a new battery technology is about to break through in a couple of years. The reality is that new technology tends to trickle down into products. It is not just the technology that needs to be perfected but also mass production and safety approvals. The latter two will take at least a couple of years each so a decade is a better prediction. We'll probably see new battery technology in our phones and laptops before it find it's way into cars. If there really was a new battery technology around the corner then Tesla would not have invested in a huge Li-ion factory.

I also don't see why an EV would suddenly cost less then a car with a combustion engine even IF they are produced in equal numbers so you better come up with some actual numbers here. The way I see it one complex component is swapped for another complex component (not just the engine, the entire drive train including energy/fuel storage).

Edit:
Quotation from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_lithium-ion_battery In November 2017, Fisker Inc., .... the emerging technology of solid state batteries, could put electric cars with 500-plus mile ranges and one-minute recharging times on the roads as early as the year 2024. That is not 2-3 years but more like 10 years or more before we see main stream use.

The inventor  is even more skeptical: http://theamericanenergynews.com/markham-on-energy/solid-state-battery-advance-goodenough in an article published the 1st of March 2017: This will have no tangible effect on electric vehicle adoption in the next 15 years, if it does at all. A key hurdle that many solid-state electrolytes face is lack of a scalable and cost-effective manufacturing process
« Last Edit: December 29, 2017, 10:46:43 am by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #23 on: December 29, 2017, 10:41:44 am »
Toyota is building the factory, Tesla semi is supposed to come with that battery technology.
These are not the new article, when Won Heng at the technical university of new bullshit has combined batteries and supercapacitors with lazers. It is the real deal.
My numbers are in the tesla semi thread. I'm not gonna repeat myself.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #24 on: December 29, 2017, 10:57:08 am »
Still better post a link because I can't find it and Google only comes up with marketing BS from Musk making promises.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 


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