Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 458150 times)

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Offline wraper

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1225 on: July 10, 2018, 10:17:33 am »
That, and also that fossil fuels won't last forever!
Fossil fuels are slowly being replaced by bio-fuels already so I'm not worrying about the fossil fuels running out.
Full replacement won't happen because: https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/sep/20/demand-for-biofuels-is-increasing-global-food-prices-says-study
 

Offline ljwinkler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1226 on: July 10, 2018, 10:18:47 am »
I think the problem is that people are used to filling a tank in just few minutes. Modern diesel engine (let's say, BMW 520d) can do 1000km on a single tank that is filled in 3 minutes. If my math serves me correctly, to charge a Nissan Leaf (30kWh battery) in 10 minutes you'd need to charge the battery from a 180kW charger (not including losses, etc) (over 700A from your standard 240V socket, or 1500A for colleagues in US).

The other problem is the electrical grid capacity.
A standard leaf charger is 6kW so charging your car is equal to having 3 kettles (2kW) running all night. No one makes such amounts of tea :)
A housing estate having only 100 electric cars may be very difficult to supply not even talking about cities or 'everyone gets an electric car'.

What about all the goods vehicles or heavy machinery? This is a simple physics: you need X amount of energy to move Y mass by Z distance. If you can't make your trucks/buses/excavators any lighter then you need to have bigger battery banks to extend their work time. Trucks/diggers/etc. work 24/7 (they don't earn money while in standstill) - how companies are going to justify that their fleets need to be useless for greater part of a day?

I agree that electric cars are great in some niche applications, for people that use cars only for city use/small distances, etc.

And there is of course the price.
You can buy a crappy little car for almost no money and make hundreds of kilometres on a single tank.
Buying old and used electric car and spending a lot of money on a new (or even slightly better) battery may be a stopping point for most of people.

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1227 on: July 10, 2018, 10:19:40 am »
That, and also that fossil fuels won't last forever!
Fossil fuels are slowly being replaced by bio-fuels already so I'm not worrying about the fossil fuels running out.

I'm a bit skeptic, and I'm not sure I'd like to see the earth covered in "fuel weeds". Jeez, fossil fuels are such a heavens gift, it's going to be hard to find a proper substitute, one that's as good.
The good thing is that the earth is already covered in fuel weeds today. It is just a matter of converting leftovers into fuel instead of letting them rot away.

@wraper: that is old news. Third generation bio-fuels will have the opposite effect. The EU has announced a ban on bio-fuels which use too much farm land.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline wraper

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1228 on: July 10, 2018, 10:23:57 am »
@wraper: that is old news. Third generation bio-fuels will have the opposite effect. The EU has announced a ban on bio-fuels which use too much farm land.
I know about them. But full replacement? IMO they can be nothing more than supplement.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1229 on: July 10, 2018, 10:26:12 am »
I'm a bit skeptic, and I'm not sure I'd like to see the earth covered in "fuel weeds". Jeez, fossil fuels are such a heavens gift, it's going to be hard to find a proper substitute, one that's as good.
The good thing is that the earth is already covered in fuel weeds today. It is just a matter of converting leftovers into fuel instead of letting them rot away.
That certainly sounds good!
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Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1230 on: July 10, 2018, 10:52:32 am »
Who said EVs were silent?  >:D



Sorry but that noise is a royal PITA.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2018, 08:57:12 pm by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1231 on: July 10, 2018, 11:01:11 am »
We should use our seas more in growing biofuels, there must be some algae that can be used.
 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1232 on: July 10, 2018, 11:04:56 am »
@wraper: that is old news. Third generation bio-fuels will have the opposite effect. The EU has announced a ban on bio-fuels which use too much farm land.
I know about them. But full replacement? IMO they can be nothing more than supplement.
With less fuel consumption there should be enough leftover plant material to get to a full replacement. The currently available efficient cars are near the mark where fuel efficiency needs to be. The good thing is that the changeover to bio-fuel can happen in a slower pace without throwing existing technology and infrastructure away. From an economic point of view it makes a lot more sense.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1233 on: July 10, 2018, 12:49:57 pm »
It doesn't matter what the context, whenever I hear someone say algae from the sea is the answer I think, "Tuesday is Soylent Green day".
That movie was made nearly 50 years ago.
Yup that is another possibility , fat burns well  :o
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1234 on: July 10, 2018, 01:23:49 pm »
It’s interesting to see this discussion play out on an engineering forum the same way I’ve seen it play out over the years in other forums.

Surely there must be an answer, right? There must be some way we can continue our profligate energy consumption endlessly into the future?   There isn’t.

3rd gen biofuels?  That belongs with “next gen nuclear”; “next gen batteries”, and cold fusion as vaporware at this point.  I remember 30 years ago when people were saying biofuels were the answer, then it was “next gen biofuels”, now it’s “3rd gen biofuels” ::)

The numbers don’t lie, biofuels will never fully replace fossil fuels.  Not even close.

In the end, the best we can hope for is a mixture of alternative electricity production (some mix of PV, hydro and wind) supplemented by biofuels in some niche areas, like jet fuel, where there is no other option.  If we’re lucky, all that combined will allow continuation of a reasonably technologicallly advanced society. BUT even so, it will only be possible with a drastically smaller population.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1235 on: July 10, 2018, 01:46:14 pm »
BUT even so, it will only be possible with a drastically smaller population.
That's a taboo, nobody wants to talk about that out loud. Albert Bartlett did, but he's no longer with us. Godwin's law in 3, 2, 1...
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1236 on: July 10, 2018, 01:53:43 pm »
The numbers don’t lie, biofuels will never fully replace fossil fuels.  Not even close.
According to the numbers provided by Poet-DSM (who actually make bio-fuels so they don't have to hyperbole numbers) it is very possible to replace fossil fuels for transportation using bio-fuels. Not saying electricity isn't any good but electricity is not a good energy carrier for transportation.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline NiHaoMike

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1237 on: July 10, 2018, 01:57:58 pm »
Fossil fuels are slowly being replaced by bio-fuels already so I'm not worrying about the fossil fuels running out.
Plentiful water for growing  the raw materials is going to be the problem.
As mentioned earlier, biofuel from saltwater algae would probably be the answer. There's about 3 times as much ocean area as there is land area.
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1238 on: July 10, 2018, 02:02:43 pm »
BUT even so, it will only be possible with a drastically smaller population.
That's a taboo, nobody wants to talk about that out loud. Albert Bartlett did, but he's no longer with us. Godwin's law in 3, 2, 1...

Perhaps. But it does not have to be sudden and drastic. It will likely occur, at least initially, with increased mortality and declining life expectancy as occured in Russia following the collapse of the USSR. There are already signs of a similar phenomenon beginning  in the US with recent increased mortality of middle aged males.

Of course if history is a guide, war, famine, and disease will play a role.

Regardless of how, it will happen. We’ve far exceeded the long term carrying capacity of the planet.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2018, 02:37:26 pm by mtdoc »
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1239 on: July 10, 2018, 02:28:19 pm »
The numbers don’t lie, biofuels will never fully replace fossil fuels.  Not even close.
According to the numbers provided by Poet-DSM (who actually make bio-fuels so they don't have to hyperbole numbers) it is very possible to replace fossil fuels for transportation using bio-fuels.

Actually Poet-DSM has every reason to inflate nunbers and exaggerate the potential of biofuels. POET is a large ethanol producer and Royal DSM is a tech company selling their methods to produce biofuels. Of course they’re going to exaggerate - they want to attract investor capital and research funding. They are not a credible source of numbers. They are selling Hopium.

More reality check.

Try as we might, we cannot overcome the Earth’s physical limits.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2018, 02:30:25 pm by mtdoc »
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1240 on: July 10, 2018, 02:30:06 pm »
According to the numbers provided by Poet-DSM (who actually make bio-fuels so they don't have to hyperbole numbers)
I've read that line a few times, and it makes me chuckle every time.  :)
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1241 on: July 10, 2018, 04:18:16 pm »
The numbers don’t lie, biofuels will never fully replace fossil fuels.  Not even close.
According to the numbers provided by Poet-DSM (who actually make bio-fuels so they don't have to hyperbole numbers) it is very possible to replace fossil fuels for transportation using bio-fuels.
Actually Poet-DSM has every reason to inflate nunbers and exaggerate the potential of biofuels. POET is a large ethanol producer and Royal DSM is a tech company selling their methods to produce biofuels. Of course they’re going to exaggerate - they want to attract investor capital and research funding. They are not a credible source of numbers.
They can't make up numbers at random. In the US there is something called the SEC
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1242 on: July 10, 2018, 04:32:15 pm »
They can't make up numbers at random. In the US there is something called the SEC
You mean the SEC who oversaw Enron? If a group is making or consuming large amounts of energy, the money involved is huge and nobody can be trusted until the bases of their statements are broken down to see what really lies behind them.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1243 on: July 10, 2018, 04:44:29 pm »
The numbers don’t lie, biofuels will never fully replace fossil fuels.  Not even close.
According to the numbers provided by Poet-DSM (who actually make bio-fuels so they don't have to hyperbole numbers) it is very possible to replace fossil fuels for transportation using bio-fuels.
Actually Poet-DSM has every reason to inflate nunbers and exaggerate the potential of biofuels. POET is a large ethanol producer and Royal DSM is a tech company selling their methods to produce biofuels. Of course they’re going to exaggerate - they want to attract investor capital and research funding. They are not a credible source of numbers.
They can't make up numbers at random. In the US there is something called the SEC

The SEC has no role in regulating claims about the viability or feasibility of a company's product claims. They hardly have the expertise to evaluate physics or engineering claims.

Their role is enforcing federal securities law (i.e. a company's financial statements, stock and bond issuance and trading) - which they do poorly as coppice points out.

 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1244 on: July 10, 2018, 05:02:35 pm »
They can't make up numbers at random. In the US there is something called the SEC
You mean the SEC who oversaw Enron? If a group is making or consuming large amounts of energy, the money involved is huge and nobody can be trusted until the bases of their statements are broken down to see what really lies behind them.
But they can't operate a boiler room either.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1245 on: July 10, 2018, 05:53:06 pm »
That, and also that fossil fuels won't last forever!
Fossil fuels are slowly being replaced by bio-fuels already so I'm not worrying about the fossil fuels running out.

Fossil fuels running out anytime soon?  Don’t think so.  We keep finding more and more deposits.  And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1246 on: July 10, 2018, 06:17:48 pm »
  And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
No apart from the million years waiting time we don't have the primeval forests anymore.
They are dissapearing to be transferred in agricultural sites.
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1247 on: July 10, 2018, 07:10:16 pm »
Fossil fuels running out anytime soon?  Don’t think so.  We keep finding more and more deposits.  And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
Can you list some of these amazing recent finds? Everything I have seen shows that people get really excited about a find that might power the world for just a day or two, because those are the only ones being found. They also call into question how realistic the figures for remaining reserves in currently worked fields might be.
 
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1248 on: July 10, 2018, 08:00:08 pm »
Fossil fuels running out anytime soon?  Don’t think so.  We keep finding more and more deposits.  And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
Can you list some of these amazing recent finds? Everything I have seen shows that people get really excited about a find that might power the world for just a day or two, because those are the only ones being found. They also call into question how realistic the figures for remaining reserves in currently worked fields might be.

This has been explained here before but ignored.

Last year reserve estimates grew by about 6 billion bbl. (And the year before reserve estimates decreased by 11 billion bbl!).

In contrast, the world currently consumes about 35 billion bbl of oil per year.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1249 on: July 10, 2018, 09:52:37 pm »
Fossil fuels running out anytime soon?  Don’t think so.  We keep finding more and more deposits.  And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
Can you list some of these amazing recent finds? Everything I have seen shows that people get really excited about a find that might power the world for just a day or two, because those are the only ones being found. They also call into question how realistic the figures for remaining reserves in currently worked fields might be.

There are untapped oil reserves in and around the San Francisco Bay Area.  Plenty of oil still left in Southern California and in the mid-East of the United States.  There’s a lot left in Canada and doen’t Africa have quite a bit.

 


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