Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 458168 times)

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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1250 on: July 10, 2018, 10:40:03 pm »
Fossil fuels running out anytime soon?  Don’t think so.  We keep finding more and more deposits.  And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
Can you list some of these amazing recent finds? Everything I have seen shows that people get really excited about a find that might power the world for just a day or two, because those are the only ones being found. They also call into question how realistic the figures for remaining reserves in currently worked fields might be.

There are untapped oil reserves in and around the San Francisco Bay Area.  Plenty of oil still left in Southern California and in the mid-East of the United States.  There’s a lot left in Canada and doen’t Africa have quite a bit.

Are you just trolling now? I've addressed this claim by you in the past. There is no significant amount of oil left in California. Once again see here. You can see California or any other states reserves.

For worldwide figures, see the link in my post above or for the latest and greatest full blown report by BP here. The proven reserves have not increased significantly in recent years despite ever increasing world oil consumption.
Of the proven reserves that do exist - much of them will never be economically or energetically viable to extract.

Please don't just keep repeating the same nonsense unless you have some data to back it up.
 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1251 on: July 11, 2018, 05:44:01 am »
Last year reserve estimates grew by about 6 billion bbl. (And the year before reserve estimates decreased by 11 billion bbl!).

In contrast, the world currently consumes about 35 billion bbl of oil per year.
And there is enough oil left for another 40 years.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1252 on: July 11, 2018, 06:06:43 am »
Last year reserve estimates grew by about 6 billion bbl. (And the year before reserve estimates decreased by 11 billion bbl!).

In contrast, the world currently consumes about 35 billion bbl of oil per year.
And there is enough oil left for another 40 years.

That assumes:

1) Oil consumption does not continue to grow. This will only be true if there is viable, growing alternatives OR if their is a global economic depression.

2) All proven reserves are economically and energetically viable for extraction - which is extremely unlikely. Much of current oil extraction is already occurring at a financial loss (made possible only by cheap credit) and for many unconventional oil and deep water extraction operations the energy returned on energy invested equation is close to break even. These problems will only escalate as the easy oil fields continue their rapid depletion.

Even if 1 and 2 occur, what then? What happens if/when we are suddenly out of oil and we have not prepared for that transition?
 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1253 on: July 11, 2018, 06:07:51 am »
Can we get this topic back on Electric Cars ?
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1254 on: July 11, 2018, 08:45:15 am »
Can we get this topic back on Electric Cars ?
On the topic of (the future of) EVs, fossil fuels are very much on topic. Hey, even Musk burns kerosene in his rockets! Irritates the fanboys much? >:D
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Offline wraper

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1255 on: July 11, 2018, 08:53:12 am »
Hey, even Musk burns kerosene in his rockets! Irritates the fanboys much? >:D
Electric motors don't fly in vacuum. Does not have anything to do with cars on the roads.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1256 on: July 11, 2018, 09:05:01 am »
What happens if/when we are suddenly out of oil and we have not prepared for that transition?
I hope it won't be sudden, oil prices may rise steady but slowly, hopefully, and we'll have ~ time to adapt to the new circumstances more or less well. I believe that would be happening already, right now, if it were not for the fracking. And I'd very much like that to happen after I'm gone because I like the way I'm living now: in a few minutes I'm going to go to my favourite cafetería which is a 16 km drive, in my SUV with the A/C on.

Our sons surely are not going to be so lucky in an overpopulated world and without the abundance of cheap energy we have.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2018, 01:07:59 pm by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1257 on: July 11, 2018, 09:11:06 am »
Fossil fuels running out anytime soon?  Don’t think so.  We keep finding more and more deposits.  And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
Can you list some of these amazing recent finds? Everything I have seen shows that people get really excited about a find that might power the world for just a day or two, because those are the only ones being found. They also call into question how realistic the figures for remaining reserves in currently worked fields might be.

There are untapped oil reserves in and around the San Francisco Bay Area.  Plenty of oil still left in Southern California and in the mid-East of the United States.  There’s a lot left in Canada and doen’t Africa have quite a bit.

Are you just trolling now? I've addressed this claim by you in the past. There is no significant amount of oil left in California. Once again see here. You can see California or any other states reserves.

For worldwide figures, see the link in my post above or for the latest and greatest full blown report by BP here. The proven reserves have not increased significantly in recent years despite ever increasing world oil consumption.
Of the proven reserves that do exist - much of them will never be economically or energetically viable to extract.

Please don't just keep repeating the same nonsense unless you have some data to back it up.

No nonsense here.  It appears you are preprogrammed to not look at the fact, figures and others evidence other have to offer it they don’t agree with your beliefs.  For decades we have been told were are running out of oil reserves.  And for decades that’s proven to be false as we continue to find new oils deposits.

Please explain to me why you believe Southern California is running out of oil and why you think there is no untapped oil in the San Francisco Bay Area?

The reality is the world will never run out of oil.  Anyone who says the world is running out of oil is propagating false environmental propaganda with an agenda.  If someone like you would visit California you could see this for yourself.  There are many oil wells which have been shut down not because they were pumped dry.  But because they were not profitabe.  There’s still oil there.  And when oil prices increase they will once again start pumping. 

Do you have any idea how much oil is in Southern California?  And how that compares to the other states?  Or how much oil lies under the San Francisco Bay Area?

Rest assured we have so much oil a non EV powered hearse will be able to drive your casket to your grave site.  As well as you children and great grand children.

https://www.thebalance.com/oil-reserves-definition-categories-world-s-largest-3305873
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1258 on: July 11, 2018, 09:23:28 am »
Doug, what do you think of this:

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Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1259 on: July 11, 2018, 09:39:36 am »
No nonsense here.  It appears you are preprogrammed to not look at the fact, figures and others evidence other have to offer it they don’t agree with your beliefs.  For decades we have been told were are running out of oil reserves.  And for decades that’s proven to be false as we continue to find new oils deposits.

Please explain to me why you believe Southern California is running out of oil and why you think there is no untapped oil in the San Francisco Bay Area?

The reality is the world will never run out of oil.  Anyone who says the world is running out of oil is propagating false environmental propaganda with an agenda.  If someone like you would visit California you could see this for yourself.  There are many oil wells which have been shut down not because they were pumped dry.  But because they were not profitabe.  There’s still oil there.  And when oil prices increase they will once again start pumping. 

Do you have any idea how much oil is in Southern California?  And how that compares to the other states?  Or how much oil lies under the San Francisco Bay Area?

Rest assured we have so much oil a non EV powered hearse will be able to drive your casket to your grave site.  As well as you children and great grand children.

https://www.thebalance.com/oil-reserves-definition-categories-world-s-largest-3305873
Did you post the wrong link, because that one doesn't seem to support your claims?

Do you think oil is being continuously and rapidly generated within the Earth, because that would seem to be the only way running out is not possible?
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1260 on: July 11, 2018, 10:38:16 am »
No nonsense here.  It appears you are preprogrammed to not look at the fact, figures and others evidence other have to offer it they don’t agree with your beliefs.  For decades we have been told were are running out of oil reserves.  And for decades that’s proven to be false as we continue to find new oils deposits.

Please explain to me why you believe Southern California is running out of oil and why you think there is no untapped oil in the San Francisco Bay Area?

The reality is the world will never run out of oil.  Anyone who says the world is running out of oil is propagating false environmental propaganda with an agenda.  If someone like you would visit California you could see this for yourself.  There are many oil wells which have been shut down not because they were pumped dry.  But because they were not profitabe.  There’s still oil there.  And when oil prices increase they will once again start pumping. 

Do you have any idea how much oil is in Southern California?  And how that compares to the other states?  Or how much oil lies under the San Francisco Bay Area?

Rest assured we have so much oil a non EV powered hearse will be able to drive your casket to your grave site.  As well as you children and great grand children.

https://www.thebalance.com/oil-reserves-definition-categories-world-s-largest-3305873
Did you post the wrong link, because that one doesn't seem to support your claims?

Do you think oil is being continuously and rapidly generated within the Earth, because that would seem to be the only way running out is not possible?

Not sure where our communications break down is.  I never used the word rapidly.  Fossil fuels are and will continually producde until one of the reactants is no longer available.....  It’s just chemistry.
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1261 on: July 11, 2018, 11:39:47 am »
Did you post the wrong link, because that one doesn't seem to support your claims?

Do you think oil is being continuously and rapidly generated within the Earth, because that would seem to be the only way running out is not possible?

Not sure where our communications break down is.  I never used the word rapidly.  Fossil fuels are and will continually producde until one of the reactants is no longer available.....  It’s just chemistry.
Since Watt patented the first efficient steam engine in 1769 we've burned through a substantial percentage of the oil, coal and gas that took millions of years to accumulate. Sure the processes that created them are still in place and working, but that isn't going to have any useful impact on our civilisation.
 
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1262 on: July 11, 2018, 12:59:03 pm »
Please explain to me why you believe Southern California is running out of oil and why you think there is no untapped oil in the San Francisco Bay Area?

I'm confused.  Are you unable to read the numbers in the link I've provided to you several times now?  It shows quite clearly that California's oil reserves are relatively small and falling fast. No, I never said there was *no* untapped oil in SF - I said there were not amounts justifying your claim that there is "plenty of oil" in California.

Quote
If someone like you would visit California you could see this for yourself.
As I've stated before, I lived the first 34 years of my life in CA, both my parents were born their and all my family still lives there. I visit there yearly.
Quote
  There are many oil wells which have been shut down not because they were pumped dry.
Yeah, I literally grew up next to them. They produce trivial amounts of oil.  Many of them are still pumping though because of sunk costs.

Quote
Do you have any idea how much oil is in Southern California?  And how that compares to the other states?

Again, are you just trolling or somehow unable to read the link, I've posted several times now?

Once again - from the link - as of the end of 2016 California has 1,933 million barrels reserve.  At current rates of consumption that would provide the world with less than 20 days of oil (if we are able to suck every last drop of it out which is unlikely).

From the link above, here is a graph of California's historical decline in it's oil reserves.



Did you post the wrong link, because that one doesn't seem to support your claims?

Yeah - the same info has been presented to him several times in several forms and he seems unable to process it.  Also that link underestimates world oil consumption. It is currently almost 100 million bbl/day.

Of course there will always be oil left in the ground. In fact much of the current "proven reserves" will never be extracted since much of if is energetically and economically not viable to extract.

There is a long history of what happens when a resource a population depends on to maintain its numbers is depleted - whether it's a human population or some other animal.  Whether it's 20 years from now or 40 years - the information is freely available to give a pretty good idea of what's coming.  I think it is cognitive dissonance which just prevents some from acknowledging these facts.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2018, 01:05:09 pm by mtdoc »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1263 on: July 11, 2018, 04:45:40 pm »
Did you post the wrong link, because that one doesn't seem to support your claims?

Do you think oil is being continuously and rapidly generated within the Earth, because that would seem to be the only way running out is not possible?

Not sure where our communications break down is.  I never used the word rapidly.  Fossil fuels are and will continually producde until one of the reactants is no longer available.....  It’s just chemistry.
Since Watt patented the first efficient steam engine in 1769 we've burned through a substantial percentage of the oil, coal and gas that took millions of years to accumulate. Sure the processes that created them are still in place and working, but that isn't going to have any useful impact on our civilisation.

You also forgot we burned trees and whale oil.  We still have trees and whales so this is a resource we consumed but was not depleted. 

We still have plenty of coal and oil, but with with the technology we have to say it would be silly to continue burning it.

As we have learned there is no perfect source of energy.  Best solution we have to supply the world with the electricity we need is nuclear.  We have a 750 year supply of fuel with the tecnogy we have and an endless supply with next generation nuclear.  We will probably never find a replacement for gas and ICE’s.  The energy density in liquid fossil fuels is just to great.

 

Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1264 on: July 11, 2018, 04:57:03 pm »
Best solution we have to supply the world with the electricity we need is nuclear.
Nope. But it's the best way to poison the surface of the earth for the next 100 million years at least.
That should solve the energy problem due to death of humans.
 
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Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1265 on: July 11, 2018, 05:13:52 pm »
Since Watt patented the first efficient steam engine in 1769 we've burned through a substantial percentage of the oil, coal and gas that took millions of years to accumulate. Sure the processes that created them are still in place and working, but that isn't going to have any useful impact on our civilisation.

You also forgot we burned trees and whale oil.  We still have trees and whales so this is a resource we consumed but was not depleted. 

We still have plenty of coal and oil, but with with the technology we have to say it would be silly to continue burning it.

As we have learned there is no perfect source of energy.  Best solution we have to supply the world with the electricity we need is nuclear.  We have a 750 year supply of fuel with the tecnogy we have and an endless supply with next generation nuclear.  We will probably never find a replacement for gas and ICE’s.  The energy density in liquid fossil fuels is just to great.
When the Romans invaded Britain they described it as an oak forest with clearings where settlements sprang up. By the time of Britain's early global exploits oak trees were being felled by the thousand to build ships. By Watt's time Britain was an importer of wood. Watt's original goal for his steam engines was to enable deep coal mining, to deal with Britain's lack of fuel for cooking and staying warm in winter. Humans are voracious.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1266 on: July 11, 2018, 06:14:03 pm »
Last year reserve estimates grew by about 6 billion bbl. (And the year before reserve estimates decreased by 11 billion bbl!).
In contrast, the world currently consumes about 35 billion bbl of oil per year.
And there is enough oil left for another 40 years.

That assumes:

1) Oil consumption does not continue to grow. This will only be true if there is viable, growing alternatives OR if their is a global economic depression.

2) All proven reserves are economically and energetically viable for extraction - which is extremely unlikely. Much of current oil extraction is already occurring at a financial loss (made possible only by cheap credit) and for many unconventional oil and deep water extraction operations the energy returned on energy invested equation is close to break even. These problems will only escalate as the easy oil fields continue their rapid depletion.

Even if 1 and 2 occur, what then? What happens if/when we are suddenly out of oil and we have not prepared for that transition?
There is one extremely big flaw in your assumptions: if oil could suddenly run out then oil companies would suddenly be without profit. They are not going to let that happen. So watch carefully in what direction the oil companies are shifting their business.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1267 on: July 11, 2018, 06:58:51 pm »
Last year reserve estimates grew by about 6 billion bbl. (And the year before reserve estimates decreased by 11 billion bbl!).
In contrast, the world currently consumes about 35 billion bbl of oil per year.
And there is enough oil left for another 40 years.

That assumes:

1) Oil consumption does not continue to grow. This will only be true if there is viable, growing alternatives OR if their is a global economic depression.

2) All proven reserves are economically and energetically viable for extraction - which is extremely unlikely. Much of current oil extraction is already occurring at a financial loss (made possible only by cheap credit) and for many unconventional oil and deep water extraction operations the energy returned on energy invested equation is close to break even. These problems will only escalate as the easy oil fields continue their rapid depletion.

Even if 1 and 2 occur, what then? What happens if/when we are suddenly out of oil and we have not prepared for that transition?
There is one extremely big flaw in your assumptions: if oil could suddenly run out then oil companies would suddenly be without profit. They are not going to let that happen.

I see you've changed the subject but ok.  No - that point has nothing to do with my argument - my posit about "suddenly running out of oil" was simply making a point about the flaw in any argument that we should not be focused on renewables or EVs because "we still have plenty of oil".

Of course oil companies are going to do everything they can to prevent profits from falling. They have been doing that.

Quote
So watch carefully in what direction the oil companies are shifting their business.

Oh, I and many others have been. It's well known that Oil companies have severely cut back on spending for new discoveries and that they are increasingly focusing on stock buybacks and increasing shareholder dividends. They know quite well that their days of making money from selling oil are numbered. In the meantime they are doing what they can to prop up their stock prices (and hence executive compensation) and keep investors happy.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1268 on: July 11, 2018, 09:20:10 pm »
Last year reserve estimates grew by about 6 billion bbl. (And the year before reserve estimates decreased by 11 billion bbl!).
In contrast, the world currently consumes about 35 billion bbl of oil per year.
And there is enough oil left for another 40 years.
That assumes:

1) Oil consumption does not continue to grow. This will only be true if there is viable, growing alternatives OR if their is a global economic depression.

2) All proven reserves are economically and energetically viable for extraction - which is extremely unlikely. Much of current oil extraction is already occurring at a financial loss (made possible only by cheap credit) and for many unconventional oil and deep water extraction operations the energy returned on energy invested equation is close to break even. These problems will only escalate as the easy oil fields continue their rapid depletion.

Even if 1 and 2 occur, what then? What happens if/when we are suddenly out of oil and we have not prepared for that transition?
There is one extremely big flaw in your assumptions: if oil could suddenly run out then oil companies would suddenly be without profit. They are not going to let that happen.
I see you've changed the subject but ok.  No - that point has nothing to do with my argument - my posit about "suddenly running out of oil" was simply making a point about the flaw in any argument that we should not be focused on renewables or EVs because "we still have plenty of oil".
I'm not changing the subject. I'm just not accepting we should change into a completely different direction today because of a problem which is decades ahead.

The way I see it there are several huge problems which need to be overcome to make EVs mainstream: electricity distribution infrastructure, better batteries to give 800km range, way faster charging, same price as an ICE based car (without subsidies). Solving these problems will take decades IF they can all be solved. There are good reasons why ICE based cars are the way they are: people demand features like range and fast filling. Now ofcourse some will chime in and say I'm too rooted into the ICE car. Well: I didn't invent the ICE car! It was there long before I was born and it is a product of over 100 years of development & input from customers. Dismissing features like range and fast filling is like saying a square wheel works just as well as a round one if you push harder :palm: .

Even bio-fuel (ethanol) looks better. The factories to process plant waste are up & running and by the time oil prices rise due to shortage this technology is ready to be  phased in as a gradual replacement. No need to buy new cars and install a new distribution infrastructure. All the necessary plant waste is available.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2018, 09:28:49 pm by nctnico »
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1269 on: July 11, 2018, 11:31:34 pm »
I'm not changing the subject. I'm just not accepting we should change into a completely different direction today because of a problem which is decades ahead.

So when would you suggest the transition to non-fossil fuel modes of transportation begin?  The most optimistic estimates put severe oil shortages 40 years from now at current rates of consumption. For reasons I presented a few posts ago, that is way too optimistic but even if true that leaves little time for the transition.

When would you put it off to? 20 years? 10 years? before the oil becomes too scarce?

IMO we have already waited far too long. The 1970s, when the problem first became widely recognized was the time to begin serious changes. It's already too late. We're now in an energy trap.


Quote
Dismissing features like range and fast filling is like saying a square wheel works just as well as a round one if you push harder

Dismissing the problems with ICE vehicles like the inability to easily refuel at home, the dirty emmisions, and reliance on fossil fuels and continuing their promotion is like continuing the cutting down of trees on Easter Island so that just one more statue can be erected. :palm:

Quote
Even bio-fuel (ethanol) looks better.
As previously explained, biofuel production on any useful scale requires huge fossil fuel inputs. It is no solution.  At least with EVs - there is the possibility of the electricity being generated without fossil fuels.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1270 on: July 11, 2018, 11:40:45 pm »
Best solution we have to supply the world with the electricity we need is nuclear.
Nope. But it's the best way to poison the surface of the earth for the next 100 million years at least.
That should solve the energy problem due to death of humans.

That’s impossible with NextGen Nuclear.  The half life of the fuel on the order 2-3 years.  Should there ever be a Chernobyl or Fukushima scale accident in 20 - 25 years the fuel will have decayed away.

Not sure where you ace comming up with your 100 million year number.  It violates the laws of physics.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1271 on: July 12, 2018, 05:48:54 am »
I'm not changing the subject. I'm just not accepting we should change into a completely different direction today because of a problem which is decades ahead.

So when would you suggest the transition to non-fossil fuel modes of transportation begin?
It has already begun decades ago. The fuel I'm putting in my car today consists of 5% to 10% of bio fuel.
Quote
Quote
Even bio-fuel (ethanol) looks better.
As previously explained, biofuel production on any useful scale requires huge fossil fuel inputs. It is no solution.  At least with EVs - there is the possibility of the electricity being generated without fossil fuels.
Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1272 on: July 12, 2018, 05:59:33 am »
Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?

Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1273 on: July 12, 2018, 07:15:00 am »
Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
You are ignoring the fact that the third generation bio-fuels will piggy back onto food production (and use other plant residu) so those fertilizers will be needed anyway. Besides that it isn't a given that fertilizers (which will be needed for food production) have to be made from fossil fuel. You are grasping straws here  ;) Anyway, this has been discussed before.

The way I see it bio-fuel currently has the least technical obstacles to greatly reduce and eventually replace the use of fossil fuels for cars, trucks and airplanes.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2018, 07:16:58 am by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1274 on: July 12, 2018, 09:15:32 am »
Why nor hear from an expert?

https://youtu.be/VQlbiQj_49o
 


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