Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 190264 times)

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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1300 on: July 12, 2018, 08:32:04 pm »
You are still ignoring that 3rd generation bio-fuels don't need any fertilizer because it piggy-bags along with food production (which does need fertilizer).
That is non-sensical. If it piggy backs on food production (and what exactly does that mean) - then it DOES require large fossil fuel inputs.  The biomass simply would not be available on any meaningful scale without fossil fuel inputs. 

You are essentially trying to make a "free energy" argument. :palm:

It's like mounting a windmill on the roof of my car and claiming the electricity produced does not require any fossil fuels - after all it's just piggy backing on the car... ::)

Once again - large fossil fuel inputs are an absolute requirement for any large scale crop yields - whether for food or fuel.

If you disagree then please provide a documented example of large scale biofuel production done without fossil fuel inputs.

« Last Edit: July 12, 2018, 08:37:20 pm by mtdoc »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1301 on: July 12, 2018, 10:04:08 pm »
Why nor hear from an expert?
Expert in what? Speaking narrative on youtube? Not to say he said a lot of false information, at least in second video which I partially watched.

What information in the second video is false?
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1302 on: July 12, 2018, 10:06:17 pm »
It isn't easy to convert cellulose into ethanol so that is why the earlier methods are based on how beer & whine have been made for centuries. Nowadays over a dozen of companies are working on this and several have the first large scale factories which can convert cellulose into ethanol up & running. Basically the technology for third generation bio-fuels based on plant waste is out of the laboratory stage.
Its actually really easy to convert cellulose to ethanol. That isn't the problem. The problem is the energy calculations. They need to put vast amounts of energy into the conversion. This is not an industry process efficiency issue. Its the basic chemistry, which won't change. So, you now have something that might make sense as a an energy storage mechanism for non-persistent renewable energy, like solar or wind, but you don't have a primary fuel.

Exactly.....  Unles somehow these companies have found a way to violate the laws of chemistry and physics
 

Online wraper

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1303 on: July 12, 2018, 10:11:38 pm »
Why nor hear from an expert?
Expert in what? Speaking narrative on youtube? Not to say he said a lot of false information, at least in second video which I partially watched.

What information in the second video is false?
Say BS number on renewable energy share as I already said.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1304 on: July 13, 2018, 05:56:00 am »
Mtdoc, quoting that pile of trash would be an insult to the intelligence of this thread's participants. Yes, humanity is probably screwed long-term if we don't reallocate resources and reduce our usage of cheap energy, but it's not going to happen on the scale that Dennis Meadows thinks. He predicted that world energy consumption would peak around last year, and then somehow dive down to pre-industrial levels, but has no explanation for how that would happen. Is he hoping for a nuclear war?

AFAIK, he has never claimed to know the exact timing of anything (and if he did and was wrong, why does that make him “a pile of trash”?).  Nevertheless the Meadows et. al. 1972 Limits to Growth model forecast has been remarkably prescient. 

(And BTW I didn’t quote him, I just borrowed some factual pics from a blog post)

Based on your language, you seem to have an overly emotional attachment to the idea that there can be uninterrupted infinite growth on a finite planet. It’s ok, it’s a common ailment.

« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 06:15:00 am by mtdoc »
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1305 on: July 13, 2018, 07:52:59 am »
The earth's land surface area is ~ 150e6 km² (**), total world energy consumption is about 140 TWh per year (*), assuming that at any time only 1/3 of 1/3 (***) of that surface is being fully irradiated by the sun, if we put on average 1m² of PV per km², that would be 150e6[km²]*0.1[kW/km²]/3/3 = 1.66 GW => 14.6 TWh/year. It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

(*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
(**) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth
(***) I pulled that figure out of thin air: only half the earth sees the sun, and only a fraction of that half is irradiated ~ perpendicularly.



Edit 6/3/2019: There's a mistake here: total world energy consumption is NOT 140 TWh/year, but 140e3 TWh/year.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2019, 10:51:39 am by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1306 on: July 13, 2018, 08:07:32 am »
Mtdoc, quoting that pile of trash would be an insult to the intelligence of this thread's participants. Yes, humanity is probably screwed long-term if we don't reallocate resources and reduce our usage of cheap energy, but it's not going to happen on the scale that Dennis Meadows thinks. He predicted that world energy consumption would peak around last year, and then somehow dive down to pre-industrial levels, but has no explanation for how that would happen. Is he hoping for a nuclear war?

AFAIK, he has never claimed to know the exact timing of anything (and if he did and was wrong, why does that make him “a pile of trash”?).  Nevertheless the Meadows et. al. 1972 Limits to Growth model forecast has been remarkably prescient. 

(And BTW I didn’t quote him, I just borrowed some factual pics from a blog post)

Based on your language, you seem to have an overly emotional attachment to the idea that there can be uninterrupted infinite growth on a finite planet. It’s ok, it’s a common ailment.



mtdoc

The graph you presented appears to be based on 40 year old data.  Any reason you are not presenting something with more recent data?  We certainly have it.

Using World Heath Data from the past 250 years indicates the graphs you have are wrong.  World population will continue to increst to 10 billion and remain steady.  What will continue to grow will be the consumption of energy, specificity electrica energy.   Less than 2 billion people today live in electrical luxury.  the other six billion are trying to achieve it and they are getting there.

It’s easy for one who lives in electrical luxury to tell others they should not.  But who are they to say who should have an who should have not.

 
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1307 on: July 13, 2018, 08:11:55 am »
You are still ignoring that 3rd generation bio-fuels don't need any fertilizer because it piggy-bags along with food production (which does need fertilizer).
That is non-sensical. If it piggy backs on food production (and what exactly does that mean) - then it DOES require large fossil fuel inputs.  The biomass simply would not be available on any meaningful scale without fossil fuel inputs. 

You are essentially trying to make a "free energy" argument. :palm:

It's like mounting a windmill on the roof of my car and claiming the electricity produced does not require any fossil fuels - after all it's just piggy backing on the car... ::)

Once again - large fossil fuel inputs are an absolute requirement for any large scale crop yields - whether for food or fuel.

If you disagree then please provide a documented example of large scale biofuel production done without fossil fuel inputs.
You keep turning the argument around. Keeping food production up is a problem that needs to be solved (period) but there are still several decades to solve that problem. I can't foresee how food is grown over 30 years from now. But I do know that using more from the plants is key to keep prices down. It is not a 'free energy' argument because I'm not trying to make energy appear out of thin air. I can go to a farm and point my finger at the waste which is available to make bio-fuel from.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 10:48:11 am by nctnico »
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1308 on: July 13, 2018, 08:15:32 am »
The earth's land surface area is ~ 150e6 km² (**), total world energy consumption is about 140 TWh per year (*), assuming that at any time only 1/3 of 1/3 (***) of that surface is being fully irradiated by the sun, if we put on average 1m² of PV per km², that would be 150e6[km²]*0.1[kW/km²]/3/3 = 1.66 GW => 14.6 TWh/year. It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

(*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
(**) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth
(***) I pulled that figure out of thin air: only half the earth sees the sun, and only a fraction of that half is irradiated ~ perpendicularly.

ANd to do what you are proposing would take all of the copper, silicon iron, aluminum and concrete that’s ever been mined or poured int he history of the world.

And then you have another problem.....  Since you would be captureing so much of the suns energy to produce electrity will three be enough of he sun’s energy available for plants and for the growing of food.

Remember your physics......  Conservation of energy.  Or do you want to live in a world with enough electricity and not enough food?

 

 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1309 on: July 13, 2018, 08:19:37 am »
The graph you presented appears to be based on 40 year old data.  Any reason you are not presenting something with more recent data?  We certainly have it.
I agree. Using data from a dooms-day preacher isn't accurate.
Quote
World population will continue to increst to 10 billion and remain steady. 
More likely to decline. Some countries will see a severely shrinking population in the next few decades. In Europe a lot of children where born after WW2 and this generation is about to die. For example: In the Netherlands the increase in population is already driven by people migrating to the country and not due to birth of children. People with luxury and jobs don't seem to have much interest in making babies.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1310 on: July 13, 2018, 08:32:13 am »
The graph you presented appears to be based on 40 year old data.  Any reason you are not presenting something with more recent data?  We certainly have it.
I agree. Using data from a dooms-day preacher isn't accurate.
Quote
World population will continue to increst to 10 billion and remain steady. 
More likely to decline. Some countries will see a severely shrinking population in the next few decades. In Europe a lot of children where born after WW2 and this generation is about to die. For example: In the Netherlands the increase in population is already driven by people migrating to the country and not due to birth of children. People with luxury and jobs don't seem to have much interest in making babies.

World heath physician Hans Rosling’s Gap Minder allows anyone in the world to access 250 years of world heath data.  It’s the best data we have.  Birth rates are already on the decline.  Wht’s not is electricty usage.

With the rate we are consuming electricty nuclear is the best solution we have.
 
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1311 on: July 13, 2018, 09:46:43 am »
With the rate we are consuming electricty nuclear is the best solution we have.
You are probably right about that. Unfortunately politics will be too slow to see that with the end result being a solution which is not as good as it could be. We really need to get into new and safe nuclear power plants at least as a plan-B.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1312 on: July 13, 2018, 09:50:30 am »
Boiling water FTW  :-DD
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Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1313 on: July 13, 2018, 10:05:09 am »
The earth's land surface area is ~ 150e6 km² (**), total world energy consumption is about 140 TWh per year (*), assuming that at any time only 1/3 of 1/3 (***) of that surface is being fully irradiated by the sun, if we put on average 1m² of PV per km², that would be 150e6[km²]*0.1[kW/km²]/3/3 = 1.66 GW => 14.6 TWh/year. It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

ANd to do what you are proposing would take all of the copper, silicon iron, aluminum and concrete that’s ever been mined or poured int he history of the world.

And then you have another problem.....  Since you would be captureing so much of the suns energy to produce electrity will three be enough of he sun’s energy available for plants and for the growing of food.

Remember your physics......  Conservation of energy.  Or do you want to live in a world with enough electricity and not enough food?

IDK... but 10 sq metres out of every 1 million sq metres (1 km²) is a very tiny % me thinks.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 10:07:31 am by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Online Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1314 on: July 13, 2018, 11:18:29 am »
ANd to do what you are proposing would take all of the copper, silicon iron, aluminum and concrete that’s ever been mined or poured int he history of the world.
I'd suggest using polymer barrier thin film solar cells. Either just roll them out flat on the ground and steak them, or put a one time inflatable wedge under them which fills with a foaming polymer during installation to get a gradient. Use robots to clean them. Very little concrete, stainless steel or aluminium needed. As for copper, use medium voltage DC inside the PV fields.
Quote
And then you have another problem.....  Since you would be captureing so much of the suns energy to produce electrity will three be enough of he sun’s energy available for plants and for the growing of food.
We've fucked up so much of the earth surface it doesn't really matter, de-desertification happens on geological time scales. In the mean time, we can use the deserts for solar. Just need to bury a few hippies first.
 

Online wraper

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1315 on: July 13, 2018, 11:37:12 am »
The earth's land surface area is ~ 150e6 km² (**), total world energy consumption is about 140 TWh per year (*), assuming that at any time only 1/3 of 1/3 (***) of that surface is being fully irradiated by the sun, if we put on average 1m² of PV per km², that would be 150e6[km²]*0.1[kW/km²]/3/3 = 1.66 GW => 14.6 TWh/year. It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

(*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
(**) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth
(***) I pulled that figure out of thin air: only half the earth sees the sun, and only a fraction of that half is irradiated ~ perpendicularly.

ANd to do what you are proposing would take all of the copper, silicon iron, aluminum and concrete that’s ever been mined or poured int he history of the world.

And then you have another problem.....  Since you would be captureing so much of the suns energy to produce electrity will three be enough of he sun’s energy available for plants and for the growing of food.

Remember your physics......  Conservation of energy.  Or do you want to live in a world with enough electricity and not enough food?

I have no words  :palm: EDIT: actually I have some. If you think that we won't have enough sun energy left for plants after covering 10ppm of the land (let's even make it tenfold of that), I have doubts about your sanity.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 11:45:22 am by wraper »
 
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Online coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1316 on: July 13, 2018, 02:04:19 pm »
I have no words  :palm: EDIT: actually I have some. If you think that we won't have enough sun energy left for plants after covering 10ppm of the land (let's even make it tenfold of that), I have doubts about your sanity.
Right. The amount of energy in the Atlantic Gulf stream is comparable to the entire energy usage of our current civilisation, and that's just a tiny part of the energy circulating in natural processes on the Earth. There is plenty of energy available to tap from nature. We are just really really bad at being able to tap into it efficiently, in the required places, at the required times.
 
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1317 on: July 13, 2018, 03:18:22 pm »
The graph you presented appears to be based on 40 year old data.

No, that is incorrect. Please have a look at the link I provided and look again at the graphThe original computer models and the various possible future scenarios presented in the 1972 Limits to growth are not data but models developed by a team of scientists.  The graph presented shows actual data up through 2000 (18 years ago). For the 28 years of overlap (the thicker lines) the agreement between the model and the actual data is very, very good. I do not have  a similar graph with more recent data overlayed on the original model but anyone can look at that graph and compare it to current data and see that the fit continues to be very good.

One thing to understand - just like modelling a complex circuit in LT Spice is never meant to be an exact replication of the real world circuit behavior, the Limits to Growth models were never claimed to be able to predict exactly the timing or magnitude of future changes. Nevertheless, to date, they have been remarkably close.

If you (or anyone else)are actually interested in learning the truth about the Limits to Growth modeling method and about more recent developments related to that there are several good resources:

The Limits to Growth Free online PDF
The Limits to Growth 30-Year update Free online PDF
The Limits to Growth Revisited 2011 Review of the issues by University of Florence chemistry professor Ugo Bardi

Quote
Using World Heath Data from the past 250 years indicates the graphs you have are wrong.
It's useless to make such claims without a link. ::) 
And which part of which graph exactly?

 
Quote
World population will continue to increst to 10 billion and remain steady.  What will continue to grow will be the consumption of energy, specificity electrica energy.   

So, it appears that you are one of those that believes infinite growth on a finite planet is possible. Please explain how that will work?

Specifically:

Why will human population get to 10 billion and stop and remain steady? 
(There is no example from nature of such a thing occurring for any population of living organisms. Ever.)

Do you believe the resources that humans utilize for food production and technology are inexhaustible?  If so, please explain the mechanism of that?

Do you believe that pollutants created by human activity will not continue to rise?  If so, please explain why and how?
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 03:20:26 pm by mtdoc »
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1318 on: July 13, 2018, 03:33:07 pm »
You keep turning the argument around.
No, you made the claim that biofuels could be produced without fossil fuel inputs and I showed why that is factually incorrect. Instead of acknowledging that it's you who have changed the argument.

Quote
I can go to a farm and point my finger at the waste which is available to make bio-fuel from.
Please provide and example of large scale biofuel production solely from farm waste.If you can do that, then please do some basic math and tell us how that will scale enough to replace gasoline and diesel.  Unless you can do that, your argument is baseless.

I agree. Using data from a dooms-day preacher isn't accurate.
First of all the data isn't from Meadows, he just posted it. The original sources are available. And which data are you referring to anyways? World population? Historical energy use?  This data is well known and easily found. If you have a source of data that refutes it, please provide.  Ad hominem attacks are the sign of a losing argument and I expected better from you. :--
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1319 on: July 13, 2018, 03:50:52 pm »
It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption[/b]. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

According to physicist Tom MurphyIt would only take PV panels covering approximately 0.5% of the Earth's land to provide all of society's electricity needs. Even if electricity demand increased by 10X with wider EV adoption, it would still mean just 5%.  No one has ever proposed that all human energy needs should be met with PV.

The black spots on the map below represent how much land would need to be covered with PV to cover current electricity demand. (FWIW - I do not think this will ever happen for many reason's but not because it's not theoretically possible)

« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 04:10:31 pm by mtdoc »
 
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Online wraper

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1320 on: July 13, 2018, 04:01:50 pm »
It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption[/b]. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

Your assumptions and calculations are wildly incorrect.

It would only take PV panels covering approximately 0.5% of the Earth's land to provide all of society's electricity needs. Even if electricity demand increased by 10X with wider EV adoption, it would still mean just 5%.  No one has ever proposed that all human energy needs should be met with PV.

The black spots on the map below represent how much land would need to be covered with PV to cover current electricity demand. (FWIW - I do not think this will ever happen for many reason's but not because it's not theoretically possible)
...
It sounds as if you didn't notice notice that his number is much lower than yours. 10m²/km² is 10 ppm or 0.001%. covering 0.5% sounds like insanely high number. Global land area is 1.483e+14 m2
 
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1321 on: July 13, 2018, 04:09:25 pm »
It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption[/b]. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

Your assumptions and calculations are wildly incorrect.

It would only take PV panels covering approximately 0.5% of the Earth's land to provide all of society's electricity needs. Even if electricity demand increased by 10X with wider EV adoption, it would still mean just 5%.  No one has ever proposed that all human energy needs should be met with PV.

The black spots on the map below represent how much land would need to be covered with PV to cover current electricity demand. (FWIW - I do not think this will ever happen for many reason's but not because it's not theoretically possible)
...
It sounds as if you didn't notice notice that his number is much lower than yours. 10m²/km² is 10 ppm or 0.001%. covering 0.5% sounds like insanely high number. Global land area is 1.483e+14 m2

Ah, yes. Sorry. I misunderstood his post and did not look at that number. I thought he was saying we would need 10x the available land covered with PV.  :palm:  I'll correct my post. Thanks for the correction.

0.5% to meet total world electricity demand does not seem high to me. I trust Tom Murphy's numbers.
 
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Online wraper

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1322 on: July 13, 2018, 04:13:31 pm »
 
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1323 on: July 13, 2018, 04:35:55 pm »
A couple of discrepencies are immediately obvious in that graphic compared to Tom Murphy's numbers.

1). That map assumes 20% efficiency which is wildly unrealistic. Just the PV panels alone based on current technology are not that efficient (15-18% in standard test conditions is more realistic and even that is not reflective or real world conditions - heat reduces output significantly). You also have to assume other substantial efficiency losses - wiring, inverter losses, etc.

Tom Murphy assumes 8% efficiency for his map which is much more realistic.

2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.

I have not looked at the other assumptions of that graphic but based on the above I'm guessing that they are equally overly optimistic.

It really doesn't matter though. The main point is the same. It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.

« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 05:07:11 pm by mtdoc »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1324 on: July 13, 2018, 05:00:46 pm »
Boiling water FTW  :-DD

Got a better solution?  Any reason you are not sharing it with the world?

Steam power has served us well since 1712.  What’s your solution?
 


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