Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 190306 times)

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Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1350 on: July 14, 2018, 09:37:27 pm »
But the internet can be easily turned off by the masters of the universe... imagine that!
Remember internet was designed for military use with redundancy and decentralised control in mind. I think I still have a modem somewhere...
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1351 on: July 14, 2018, 09:42:43 pm »
Trends hold as long as trends hold.

I have no blind faith in progress. I could easily see mass migration from Africa throwing Europe into an economic slide, while raising European birthrates and steering us into a Malthusian collapse.

Rosling has already shown Malthusian is wrong.  It’s education of women, family planning and improved Heath care which results in lower birth rates, and increased average life expectancy.  This has been show over and over to be true over the past 100 or more years.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1352 on: July 14, 2018, 09:42:57 pm »
But the internet can be easily turned off by the masters of the universe... imagine that!
Remember internet was designed for military use with redundancy and decentralised control in mind. I think I still have a modem somewhere...
But the powers that rule can shut it down at their whim in a sec. Good luck with your modem  :)
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1353 on: July 14, 2018, 09:44:07 pm »
This is what happens when complex societies begin to collapse. Historically this has always happened eventually - with exhaustion of important resources usually a major causative factor. 

A good book on the subject is Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies
That is an interesting subject but I don't think that history will repeat itself this time around.

So "this time it's different" huh?.

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Book printing and more recently internet have created a critical mass in the availability of information and knowledge level of the people in general. Back in the old days people where kept dumb as a means of control.

Yes, I agree somewhat but that does not solve the problem of resource scarcity.

And while the internet is helpful to keep people informed, on the otherhand it, along with the mass media makes it easier in many ways to keep people in the dark by distracting them with easily digestable and addictive memes. The majority of people, *think* they understand what's going on but they really are kept blind to the underlying forces at work.  Propaganda is now more sophisticated and easier to distribute.  Goebbels could only dream of having the reach of today's mass media.

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Resources may become a problem but nowadays it is much easier for people to move to where the resources are.
That was true in the past: Collapse of civilizations remained somewhat localized (eg Mayan, Anastazi, etc).  People then moved on to where resources were more readily available. As civilization and technology advanced, larger, more far reaching and widespread civilzations became possible (eg Roman, etc) - but even after their collapse there were always other, relatively untouched lands with abundant resources.

But that is no longer true. There are now new lands to exploit. Resources to feed the global machine are extracted worldwide. Fossil fuels are the prime - keystone - resource that has allowed population to grow this far. There is no place for people to move where those will be more abundant. (And no, traveling to Mars will not help in that regard).  Other resources, water, topsoil, etc, are also a factor.

In addition, Tainter's distinguishing point is that as societies become increasingly complex, more and more resources are required just to maintain their complexity.  That and increasing specialization among societies inhabitants make them less resilient.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 09:51:58 pm by mtdoc »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1354 on: July 14, 2018, 10:26:39 pm »
This is what happens when complex societies begin to collapse. Historically this has always happened eventually - with exhaustion of important resources usually a major causative factor. 

A good book on the subject is Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies
That is an interesting subject but I don't think that history will repeat itself this time around.

So "this time it's different" huh?.

Quote
Book printing and more recently internet have created a critical mass in the availability of information and knowledge level of the people in general. Back in the old days people where kept dumb as a means of control.

Yes, I agree somewhat but that does not solve the problem of resource scarcity.

And while the internet is helpful to keep people informed, on the otherhand it, along with the mass media makes it easier in many ways to keep people in the dark by distracting them with easily digestable and addictive memes. The majority of people, *think* they understand what's going on but they really are kept blind to the underlying forces at work.  Propaganda is now more sophisticated and easier to distribute.  Goebbels could only dream of having the reach of today's mass media.

Quote
Resources may become a problem but nowadays it is much easier for people to move to where the resources are.
That was true in the past: Collapse of civilizations remained somewhat localized (eg Mayan, Anastazi, etc).  People then moved on to where resources were more readily available. As civilization and technology advanced, larger, more far reaching and widespread civilzations became possible (eg Roman, etc) - but even after their collapse there were always other, relatively untouched lands with abundant resources.

But that is no longer true. There are now new lands to exploit. Resources to feed the global machine are extracted worldwide. Fossil fuels are the prime - keystone - resource that has allowed population to grow this far. There is no place for people to move where those will be more abundant. (And no, traveling to Mars will not help in that regard).  Other resources, water, topsoil, etc, are also a factor.

In addition, Tainter's distinguishing point is that as societies become increasingly complex, more and more resources are required just to maintain their complexity.  That and increasing specialization among societies inhabitants make them less resilient.

What do you mean there re no more resources to exploit?  Emigrants are resource which have been, and continue to be exploited. 
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1355 on: July 14, 2018, 10:32:20 pm »
What do you mean there re no more resources to exploit?  Emigrants are resource which have been, and continue to be exploited.

You know darn well that we’ve been talking about physical resources, particularly fossil fuels.

Don’t be a troll.
 

Offline Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1356 on: July 14, 2018, 10:39:29 pm »
Rosling has already shown Malthusian is wrong.
Temporarily.
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It’s education of women, family planning and improved Heath care which results in lower birth rates, and increased average life expectancy.  This has been show over and over to be true over the past 100 or more years.
This is what I mean with blind faith in progress. Even when the correlation holds the education of women, family planning and Heath care can of course still regress. Especially in western nations, which are at a very high level.

PS. non western migrants are hardly a resource for European welfare societies (more so for ME defacto slave holder nations). They could be, if we abandoned welfare.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 10:45:49 pm by Marco »
 
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Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1357 on: July 14, 2018, 10:45:10 pm »
Resources to feed the global machine are extracted worldwide. Fossil fuels are the prime - keystone - resource that has allowed population to grow this far. There is no place for people to move where those will be more abundant. (And no, traveling to Mars will not help in that regard).  Other resources, water, topsoil, etc, are also a factor.
In my opinion the most important resource by far is energy. Almost everything is derived from energy one way or another. If push comes to shove then there is always nuclear as a relatively quick way out. All in all I'm not that worried about the future of mankind or any limits on the amount of people. IMHO the most important thing is working together on a global scale.
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In addition, Tainter's distinguishing point is that as societies become increasingly complex, more and more resources are required just to maintain their complexity.  That and increasing specialization among societies inhabitants make them less resilient.
I'm not too worried about that. What you see is that (from West to East) North America, Europe, Russia and China have enough people with brains to keep technology going on their own. A mass extinction event which wipes out any of these big 'clusters' won't affect the ability to keep up and develop new technology. That is a big difference compared to earlier advanced societies.
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Offline Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1358 on: July 14, 2018, 10:51:05 pm »
In my opinion the most important resource by far is energy.
Maybe if we get molecular manipulators which can recycle materials indefinitely with enough energy, but as it stands huge amounts of materials become unrecoverable in our waste stream. Peak everything will hit us hard.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1359 on: July 14, 2018, 10:54:59 pm »
It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.
You mean all of society's energy needs, right?
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1360 on: July 14, 2018, 11:08:55 pm »
It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.
You mean all of society's energy needs, right?

I meant electricity, but either is true. It would obviously be a bigger percentage if you were trying to meet all energy demands with PV. That would be silly though since wind, hydro, passive solar and biomass (primarily wood) will always have a significant role.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 11:10:32 pm by mtdoc »
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1361 on: July 14, 2018, 11:10:27 pm »
All in all I'm not that worried about the future of mankind or any limits on the amount of people.
I'm glad I sure won't be here by then, but if the earth ever becomes one big continuous city it will be a shit to live in. And the way things go, all points in that direction.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 11:19:57 pm by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1362 on: July 14, 2018, 11:18:49 pm »
It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.
You mean all of society's energy needs, right?

I meant electricity, but either is true. It would obviously be a bigger percentage if you were trying to meet all energy demands with PV. That would be silly though since wind, hydro, passive solar and biomass (primarily wood) will always have a significant role.

That pretty much sums it up, yes. Also, given a source of plenty renewable energy, we could synthesize fuel to keep the planes flying if needed, for example, why not?
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Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1363 on: July 14, 2018, 11:31:49 pm »
Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle
I'm glad I sure won't be here by then, but if the earth ever becomes one big continuous city it will be a shit to live in. And the way things go, all points in that direction.
You don't know that. Modern city planners and future planners have real innovative ideas.
No cars, trucks etc in the city. Electric rolling paths for persons, an Underground transportation net for goods. Skyscrapers where the outsides are covered by plants for shade and moisture balance, etc etc.
Perhaps it will become a real pleasure to live in a future modern city, it is as unpredictable as saying in the 19th century that humans will fly in the sky.
 

Offline vk6zgo

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1364 on: July 15, 2018, 12:48:57 pm »
Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle
I'm glad I sure won't be here by then, but if the earth ever becomes one big continuous city it will be a shit to live in. And the way things go, all points in that direction.
You don't know that. Modern city planners and future planners have real innovative ideas.
No cars, trucks etc in the city. Electric rolling paths for persons, an Underground transportation net for goods. Skyscrapers where the outsides are covered by plants for shade and moisture balance, etc etc.
Perhaps it will become a real pleasure to live in a future modern city, it is as unpredictable as saying in the 19th century that humans will fly in the sky.

Well, actually, in the 19th century, lighter than air craft already were flying, & there was a lot of work going on around the world, aimed at powered, heavier than air flight.

Otto Lilienthal had made quite a number of flights with his glider, & Lawrence Hargraves in Australia had made rubber band powered  models which flew .

Ultimately, though, humans still don't fly----we ride in machines that do so.
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1365 on: July 15, 2018, 01:16:48 pm »
Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle
I'm glad I sure won't be here by then, but if the earth ever becomes one big continuous city it will be a shit to live in. And the way things go, all points in that direction.
You don't know that. Modern city planners and future planners have real innovative ideas.
No cars, trucks etc in the city. Electric rolling paths for persons, an Underground transportation net for goods. Skyscrapers where the outsides are covered by plants for shade and moisture balance, etc etc.
Perhaps it will become a real pleasure to live in a future modern city, it is as unpredictable as saying in the 19th century that humans will fly in the sky.
I like the good old definition;

City planner: Someone who designs towns, or parts of towns, in order to get enough money not to have to live in one.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1366 on: July 15, 2018, 08:17:03 pm »
Why do so few homes in England have rooftop solar?   I thought England was big on solar like Germany.  As I travel around in the city and country side I only see  rooftop solar installed on maybe 1 out of 100,000 homes or even less.  And so far I have not seen any solar powered signs.

I thought folks posted here saying England was big on solar.  Intertingly i’ve Seen several electric charging stations for cars on public streets.   Seems to me England could really benefit from electric cars.

A bit surprised they don’t have many more.
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1367 on: July 15, 2018, 09:10:31 pm »
Why do so few homes in England have rooftop solar?
Have you been long enough to see the weather  :-DD
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1368 on: July 15, 2018, 09:28:17 pm »
Why do so few homes in England have rooftop solar?   I thought England was big on solar like Germany.  As I travel around in the city and country side I only see  rooftop solar installed on maybe 1 out of 100,000 homes or even less.  And so far I have not seen any solar powered signs.

I thought folks posted here saying England was big on solar.  Intertingly i’ve Seen several electric charging stations for cars on public streets.   Seems to me England could really benefit from electric cars.

A bit surprised they don’t have many more.
The Brittish are clever and go for nuclear: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1369 on: July 15, 2018, 09:42:48 pm »
Why do so few homes in England have rooftop solar?
Have you been long enough to see the weather  :-DD

Yes.  Are you saying there is nowhere in England is there enough sun for solar panels to be effective yet in  Germany where it snows panels are effective?   That don’t make no sense.

Got a better more educated answer?
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1370 on: July 15, 2018, 10:02:07 pm »
What do you think yourself? Solar panels by themselves are not financially viable so it all depends on government grants. On top of that the UK has strict planning rules concerning the exterior of homes which may not allow adding solar panels.

True story: the king of the Netherlands is not allowed to put solar panels on his palace because of similar rules. Go figure.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1371 on: July 15, 2018, 10:20:20 pm »
Solar panels by themselves are not financially viable so it all depends on government grants

Nonsense.  PV is so cheap now, in many locations it provides electricity at a less expensive rate than any other available power.  Panels are on the order of $0.50 per watt and total installation costs should be no more than a few dollars/watt - though that doesn't keep many commercial home installers from ripping customers off with higher pricing.
 
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Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1372 on: July 16, 2018, 07:16:33 am »
Well if your roof is at the south you have no trees, 60% good weather and clean the panels each month you can get a real good return on investment over 15 years.
Most roofs are not to the south, there are lots of trees, there are lots of clouds, rain even in summer. Two years ago we had a hail storm causing 500M€ damage to roofs, glass, solar panels and cars. Lot of people were not insured, they had a storm clause but that excludes hail.

The sun shines in daytime while everyone is out working so the energy needs storage which is still very expensive.
So you need a converter per panel (lifetime 10 years) so if some shades comes on one panel not the entire array suffers, you need batterystorage (lifetime <10 years) or payback from the energy company for return of energy which in our country is being nihilated over the coming years.  Yes that is right, you get €0 for the energy you give back because it is to popular and the energy companies can not handle the overload of generated energy, so they actually see it as a burden and want you to buy and expensive battery where they want to be able to drain energy from if needed, but you have to pay for it.

So hmmmmmm it is not that interesting IMO.
What is interesting though but restricted and also expensive is to warm water in the summer pump it 200m down in the ground and pump it up in the winter.
However you can not reserve your own tank at 200m down so how that works ???????

So since my roof is to the west , I have trees and live in one of the cloudiest countries I will never go into solar my self.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1373 on: July 16, 2018, 07:57:06 am »
Why do so few homes in England have rooftop solar?
Have you been long enough to see the weather  :-DD

Yes.  Are you saying there is nowhere in England is there enough sun for solar panels to be effective yet in  Germany where it snows panels are effective?   That don’t make no sense.

Got a better more educated answer?

Are you sure?  I’ve seen dome homes with solar, jut not many.

 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1374 on: July 16, 2018, 08:03:14 am »
Solar panels by themselves are not financially viable so it all depends on government grants
Nonsense.  PV is so cheap now, in many locations it provides electricity at a less expensive rate than any other available power.  Panels are on the order of $0.50 per watt and total installation costs should be no more than a few dollars/watt - though that doesn't keep many commercial home installers from ripping customers off with higher pricing.
We are talking about the UK. Even in the NL which is slightly to the south of the UK solar panels are not a good investment without subsidies.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 


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