Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 190395 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2411
  • Country: tr
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1425 on: July 18, 2018, 05:48:08 pm »
Charge discharge efficiency for many types of battery banks is >90%
Charge/discharge efficiency is a fact of life. Does this keep you from using a cell phone or laptop?   ::)

0.85*0.85->0.72 => to fully charge a 40 kWh EV battery, you'd waste 15.5 kWh.

Quote
Depending on type and use, deep discharge battery banks have an expected lifespan between 15 and 30 years.

You said it, depending on use: light use=>longer life, but charging an EV ~ daily isn't "light use" (for, say, a powerwall), is it?
http://brave.com <- THE BEST BROWSER
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3581
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1426 on: July 18, 2018, 06:01:13 pm »
Charge discharge efficiency for many types of battery banks is >90%
Charge/discharge efficiency is a fact of life. Does this keep you from using a cell phone or laptop?   ::)

0.85*0.85->0.72 => to fully charge a 40 kWh EV battery, you'd waste 15.5 kWh.[

AGM and lithium batteries have better charge efficiencies than that.

What's your point anyways? PV  panels or so cheap now it is very inexpensive easy to increase a PV array to add an extra 15% if you needed it.

In any case,  EV energy efficiency is far superior to an ICEs 20% efficiency!

Quote
You said it, depending on use: light use=>longer life, but charging an EV ~ daily isn't "light use" (for, say, a powerwall), is it?

Nonsense. I did not say light use. Deep discharge is deep discharge.  Depending on the battery type, 50 - 90% daily depth of discharge for thousands of cycles is possible and still have 15 - 30 year battery life.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2018, 06:08:59 pm by mtdoc »
 
The following users thanked this post: NiHaoMike

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2411
  • Country: tr
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1427 on: July 18, 2018, 06:33:03 pm »
What's your point anyways?
That on top of a rather big powerwall, you'd need at least (40[kWh]/0.85/0.85)/6[h]/0.1[kW/m²] ~= 93 m² of PVs on a sunny day. That's down right out of the reach for most people that live in cities, and not exactly cheap.
http://brave.com <- THE BEST BROWSER
 

Offline NiHaoMike

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5945
  • Country: us
  • "Don't turn it on - Take it apart!"
    • Facebook Page
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1428 on: July 18, 2018, 06:43:49 pm »
Few drive enough to use 40kWh per day every day. As mentioned before, a Nissan Leaf uses on the order of 30kWh per 100 miles.
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3581
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1429 on: July 18, 2018, 06:47:39 pm »
What's your point anyways?
That on top of a rather big powerwall, you'd need at least (40[kWh]/0.85/0.85)/6[h]/0.1[kW/m²] ~= 93 m² of PVs on a sunny day. That's down right out of the reach for most people that live in cities, and not exactly cheap.

You really have no clue. As I said - I can charge both of our PHEVs with 1 days PV production of 20 kWh from a 4500 watt array enough for each car to drive 20 miles which covers both of our typical daily driving.

PV installed costs are now a few dollars/watt.  With the money saved on fuel and maintenance - it is quite easy to payback the cost of PV installation.

True, many will not be able to afford the upfront cost or live somewhere that installation of a PV array is not possible. But many can. 

And that is an entirely different issue than your trollish comments about not being able to use PV to charge at night or battery efficiency nonsense. :palm:
 
The following users thanked this post: NiHaoMike

Online nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 18900
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1430 on: July 18, 2018, 06:55:27 pm »
Something like a Nissan Leaf uses 30kWh/100 miles, so for someone who commutes 10 miles daily,
If you commute 10 miles daily then you should use an (electric) bicycle.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline coppice

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5147
  • Country: gb
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1431 on: July 18, 2018, 07:00:15 pm »
Something like a Nissan Leaf uses 30kWh/100 miles, so for someone who commutes 10 miles daily,
If you commute 10 miles daily then you should use an (electric) bicycle.
Don't you find it rather troublesome to be soaking wet at work?
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3581
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1432 on: July 18, 2018, 07:04:31 pm »
Something like a Nissan Leaf uses 30kWh/100 miles, so for someone who commutes 10 miles daily,
If you commute 10 miles daily then you should use an (electric) bicycle.
Don't you find it rather troublesome to be soaking wet at work?

Also doesn't work well in the snow or when needing to transport kids. 
And in my case it means a 5 mile, 2000 foot climb to get home as well - it works but it's slow.
I do have an electric bicycle as well - but for all those reasons, it sadly gets very little use these days. :(
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2411
  • Country: tr
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1433 on: July 18, 2018, 07:07:19 pm »
And that is an entirely different issue than your trollish comments about not being able to use PV to charge at night or battery efficiency nonsense. :palm:
If ~ 30% energy loss is ok for you, that's fine. 95% power electronics efficiency + 90% round trip li-ion efficiency times two (once in the powerwall + again in the EV) isn't "nonsense". That's the price to recharge overnight with PVs, and it's only for those that can afford 1)An EV, 2)100m2 of PVs and 3)A rather big powerwall. Which is a tiny minority.

And, BTW, many families have two cars...
« Last Edit: July 25, 2018, 08:32:14 pm by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
http://brave.com <- THE BEST BROWSER
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3581
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1434 on: July 18, 2018, 07:13:43 pm »
And, BTW, many families have two cars...
:palm:

Did you read my post?  We have 2 PHEVs and in summer months, cover our daily commute with a 4.5kW array.   And we live in the least sunny area of the US.  We happen to have a battery back up system (to cover power outages) but most don't because it is entirely unnecessary since daytime production can be fed back into the grid.

Get over yourself with the less than 100% efficiency bullshit.  Does that keep your from using a phone or laptop? Does it keep you from using any battery powered tools or other devices? Does an ICE's 20% efficiency keep you from driving one?
 
The following users thanked this post: NiHaoMike, boffin

Online nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 18900
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1435 on: July 18, 2018, 07:18:20 pm »
Something like a Nissan Leaf uses 30kWh/100 miles, so for someone who commutes 10 miles daily,
If you commute 10 miles daily then you should use an (electric) bicycle.
Don't you find it rather troublesome to be soaking wet at work?
Shower or wash. You wouldn't be the only one. If the weather permits I go to a customer on my bike (but that is 35km one way) and take a shower over there.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2411
  • Country: tr
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1436 on: July 18, 2018, 07:22:50 pm »
Hey, mtdoc, I'm glad it works for you.

But why did you buy hybrids and not BEVs?
What if you and your wife had to leave home to work from 9 to 5?
What if your daily commutes were more miles/kWh each?
What if you lived in a flat?
Etc.

It just ~ works, and only for a very tiny few.

My phone eats just a few Wh not in the tens of thousands Wh daily.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2018, 08:36:04 am by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
http://brave.com <- THE BEST BROWSER
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3581
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1437 on: July 18, 2018, 07:38:25 pm »
But why did you buy hybrids and not BEVs?
Because availalble PHEVs are a better solution right now. I tried to talk my wife into a Tesla model X but she felt it would be too pretentious.  ::)

Quote
What if you and your wife had to leave home to work from 9 to 5?
Huh?  Sometimes we do go back and forth to home.  We can charge while we're home and in any case can get 2-3 roundtrips from home to work without needing to charge.

Quote
What if your daily commutes were more miles/kWh each?
What if you lived in a flat?
Etc.

In all those cases, driving a PHEV would still mean much better gas mileage and would mean less maintenance costs.

Quote
My phone eats just a few Wh not in the tens of kWh daily.
Completely irrelevant to the point.

No one said that PHEVs are the answer for everyone - just that with current available vehicles and charging infrastructure they are a very good option for most people.
 
The following users thanked this post: NiHaoMike

Offline DougSpindler

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1157
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1438 on: July 18, 2018, 11:43:31 pm »
And unlike current nuclear technology if we screw up and have a massive Chenobly disaster in just 20 years all of the radioactive isotopes will have completely decayed away.
You keep making references to reactors which don't leave long lasting troublesome isotopes behind. What exactly are you referring to?

The NextGen reactors which are being developed at NIF, ITER and at 75 other companies.  Paul Allen of Microsoft wealth and Bill Gates have each backing NextGen nuclear companies.  NextGen reactors use low MW/hydrogen atoms as fuel.  Half-life for the radioactive residue is 12.3 years with biological half-life being 10 days.
This seems about as well researched as your claims about UK roof solar panel.

NIF and ITER are researching fusion reactions. These use hydrogen, and produce low levels of long half life waste. However, they are just research projects, far from practical application. Both hope to get to the point where they produce significantly more energy than they consume, but they have no expectations of producing so much net energy that anyone would consider them viable for production use. They are certainly important research projects for the longer term, but calling them "Next-Gen" is a heck of a stretch. Its not even clear the techniques they are experimenting with will ever be viable.

Paul Allen, Bill Gates and others are funding work on things which are genuinely next-gen, but they are using the same old fission processes as current reactors. They expect to make their reactors cheaper, more efficient, and practical to construct in a wider range of sizes than anything in use right now. They should also be far safer than anything in use now, as most failure modes are relatively benign. Because the waste from these new reactors is basically the same as the waste produced right now, it will have just as long a half-life as any other uranium fission based solution.

My research on roof top solar an just my observations.  Interestingly in Northern Ireland where as I understand it the weather is much worse for solar is where I have seen the most roof-top solar.  Not sure who thought the weather in the UK was terrible for roof-top solar when there appears to be more where the weather is the worst.

There are currently 75 companies and organizations working on NextGen nuclear. You are mistaken about Bill Gates’s compnay.  His company is not ittereation nuclear, and will use the urgent supply of nuclear “wate” material.   Paul Allen’s company is working on NextGen or fusion.  NIF, ITER are research projects which will hopefully lead to the design of NextGen nuclear.  But what about the other 70 companies which are more than just research projects?

The 100 page research paper from what I understiand is not including the work these 70 companies are doing.     





« Last Edit: July 19, 2018, 02:20:12 pm by DougSpindler »
 

Offline boffin

  • Supporter
  • ****
  • Posts: 942
  • Country: ca
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1439 on: July 19, 2018, 05:11:46 am »
Have you ever noticed that the people nay-saying BEV or even PHEV don't have one?

My BEV gets about 14kWh/100km, which is about $1.20 worth of electricity, and when I do need to travel more than 200km, I plan accordingly.


 
The following users thanked this post: NiHaoMike, a59d1

Online nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 18900
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1440 on: July 19, 2018, 07:42:22 am »
Have you ever noticed that the people nay-saying BEV or even PHEV don't have one?
That is a strawman argument. You just wanted a nice toy to show off and are now seeking justification.
Quote
My BEV gets about 14kWh/100km, which is about $1.20 worth of electricity, and when I do need to travel more than 200km, I plan accordingly.
Indeed and besides the financial part (much higher purchase price) which doesn't make sense the when I do need to travel more than 200km, I plan accordingly seals the NO-deal. Why pay more for something which does less?
« Last Edit: July 19, 2018, 07:44:56 am by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 
The following users thanked this post: GeorgeOfTheJungle

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2411
  • Country: tr
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1441 on: July 19, 2018, 08:24:30 am »
My BEV gets about 14kWh/100km, which is about $1.20 worth of electricity
Yeah, but make that 16.4 kWh/100km... (divide by 0.85) >:D
http://brave.com <- THE BEST BROWSER
 

Offline DougSpindler

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1157
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1442 on: July 19, 2018, 02:06:52 pm »
I see plug in hybrids as a good bridge technology to cover the 5% that doesn't work well with current EV technology.


This is exactly right and why we now own 2 PHEVs.  They have most of the advantages of a pure EV and none of the disadvantages.

In the US approximately 78% of drivers drive less than 40 miles per day. (see below). I don't know the data for Europe but based on my time there I'll bet the number is less.

I've owned my Volt for 4 years now and my lifetime average is 208 miles per gallon. 
I've yet to meet anyone who has bought an PHEV who regrets the decision.

Ignore any naysayers who have not actually owned a PHEV.



Those figures in the graph would not apply to folks in California....  Not even the retired ones.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2018, 02:24:05 pm by DougSpindler »
 

Offline NiHaoMike

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5945
  • Country: us
  • "Don't turn it on - Take it apart!"
    • Facebook Page
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1443 on: July 19, 2018, 02:40:40 pm »
Quote
My BEV gets about 14kWh/100km, which is about $1.20 worth of electricity, and when I do need to travel more than 200km, I plan accordingly.
Indeed and besides the financial part (much higher purchase price) which doesn't make sense the when I do need to travel more than 200km, I plan accordingly seals the NO-deal. Why pay more for something which does less?
Plug in hybrids are not subject to that limitation. Also, has anyone noticed that if you want a CVT that lasts, pretty much your only affordable option is a Toyota hybrid or plug in hybrid? (And assuming you don't want a manual transmission, the only other option seems to be unreliable DCTs.)
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Offline coppice

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5147
  • Country: gb
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1444 on: July 19, 2018, 03:46:24 pm »
Also, has anyone noticed that if you want a CVT that lasts, pretty much your only affordable option is a Toyota hybrid or plug in hybrid?
What's wrong with Toyota's CVT that are not in hybrid cars? Other people, like Honda, make satisfactory CVTs. It seems to be mostly the JATCO (subsidiary of Nissan) CVTs that have got them a bad name for reliability.
 

Offline MasterBuilder

  • Regular Contributor
  • *
  • Posts: 67
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1445 on: July 19, 2018, 03:51:52 pm »
And unlike current nuclear technology if we screw up and have a massive Chenobly disaster in just 20 years all of the radioactive isotopes will have completely decayed away.
You keep making references to reactors which don't leave long lasting troublesome isotopes behind. What exactly are you referring to?

The NextGen reactors which are being developed at NIF, ITER and at 75 other companies.  Paul Allen of Microsoft wealth and Bill Gates have each backing NextGen nuclear companies.  NextGen reactors use low MW/hydrogen atoms as fuel.  Half-life for the radioactive residue is 12.3 years with biological half-life being 10 days.
This seems about as well researched as your claims about UK roof solar panel.

NIF and ITER are researching fusion reactions. These use hydrogen, and produce low levels of long half life waste. However, they are just research projects, far from practical application. Both hope to get to the point where they produce significantly more energy than they consume, but they have no expectations of producing so much net energy that anyone would consider them viable for production use. They are certainly important research projects for the longer term, but calling them "Next-Gen" is a heck of a stretch. Its not even clear the techniques they are experimenting with will ever be viable.

Paul Allen, Bill Gates and others are funding work on things which are genuinely next-gen, but they are using the same old fission processes as current reactors. They expect to make their reactors cheaper, more efficient, and practical to construct in a wider range of sizes than anything in use right now. They should also be far safer than anything in use now, as most failure modes are relatively benign. Because the waste from these new reactors is basically the same as the waste produced right now, it will have just as long a half-life as any other uranium fission based solution.

My research on roof top solar an just my observations.  Interestingly in Northern Ireland where as I understand it the weather is much worse for solar is where I have seen the most roof-top solar.  Not sure who thought the weather in the UK was terrible for roof-top solar when there appears to be more where the weather is the worst.

There are currently 75 companies and organizations working on NextGen nuclear. You are mistaken about Bill Gates’s compnay.  His company is not ittereation nuclear, and will use the urgent supply of nuclear “wate” material.   Paul Allen’s company is working on NextGen or fusion.  NIF, ITER are research projects which will hopefully lead to the design of NextGen nuclear.  But what about the other 70 companies which are more than just research projects?

The 100 page research paper from what I understiand is not including the work these 70 companies are doing.     

This would be why you saw lots of solar panels in Northern Ireland:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_Heat_Incentive_scandal
 

Offline coppice

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5147
  • Country: gb
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1446 on: July 19, 2018, 04:03:17 pm »
This would be why you saw lots of solar panels in Northern Ireland:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_Heat_Incentive_scandal
I thought that scandal was about useless space heating, not solar roof panels. The wikipedia page also seems to indicate that.
 

Offline NiHaoMike

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5945
  • Country: us
  • "Don't turn it on - Take it apart!"
    • Facebook Page
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1447 on: July 19, 2018, 04:31:06 pm »
What's wrong with Toyota's CVT that are not in hybrid cars? Other people, like Honda, make satisfactory CVTs. It seems to be mostly the JATCO (subsidiary of Nissan) CVTs that have got them a bad name for reliability.
Toyota hybrids use a clutchless CVT design. It differs significantly from most CVT designs in that it does not use a belt that's a common failure point.
http://techno-fandom.org/~hobbit/cars/THS_ii_part_2.pdf
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3581
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1448 on: July 19, 2018, 04:43:48 pm »
Those figures in the graph would not apply to folks in California....  Not even the retired ones.

Actually they do.  In fact, Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area are right in the middle of the large US cities on miles driven per day.  This matches well with my experience, living my first 29 years in the Los Angeles area and 7 years in the SF Bay area. 

Most people I know in California do not commute long distances, though the do spend a long time in their car due to traffic. This makes the argument for usung an EV in those places even stonger.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2018, 04:45:59 pm by mtdoc »
 
The following users thanked this post: NiHaoMike

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3581
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1449 on: July 19, 2018, 05:02:41 pm »
Why pay more for something which does less?

Lower cost of ownership therefore lower overall cost.

More convenient for everyday use - no time and miles wasted driving to and waiting at a gas/petrol station.

Greater energy efficiency.

In most cases better performance.

If you care about it - lower CO2 and lower pollutant emissions (potentially much lower depending on how your electricity is generated).
 


Share me

Digg  Facebook  SlashDot  Delicious  Technorati  Twitter  Google  Yahoo
Smf