When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

[..]some cheap, crappy, poorly performing[..]

Ha, I've had two golf gti 8v/16v mk2 and two focus tddi/tdci mk1, VW never again!

[nctnico]

Let me just summarize what you're saying:

"A VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't apples to apples, but a Ford Focus*1 vs VW eGolf is apples to apples".

No no, he didn't say "A VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't apples to apples", the rest is correct, and true.

If your argument is that there will always be some cheap, crappy, poorly performing ICE vehicle way cheaper than some particular EV - then you've lost.

And even the cheap tin can cars will probably cost you more in the long run.

Why do any of us buy quality tools?  Why don't we all just buy $10 multimeters, $200 DSOs, and cheap crappy hand tools?...

And if the true cost of ownership is the most important factor, in what alternate universe is saving $50-100 (or more!) in fuel costs per month not financially sound?

Spending $8k more buys 8 years of fuel (note that Boffin is talking Canadian dollars) and you don't know for how long you are spending that amount on fuel each month. A job change may reduce the amount of fuel or alternatively need more range from the EV than it has.

And as I wrote before: the Ford Focus is in the same segment as the VW Golf. These cars are made to compete directly so they both have to deal with cost savings in order to be profitable. The difference is in how they appeal to people (looks, ride, comfort) but quality wise they are equal. Maybe in your mind VW is better than Ford or vice versa but in the end the TCO is what counts.

Which gets me to this: There is a funny story about the Ford Focus and how I got one. My uncle hates Ford. Litterally for decades I have been hearing Ford sucks. Ford is unreliable. Ford is cheap sh*t, stories about how company cars fell apart (I'm talking about torn in half!), etc, etc. The last time I needed a 'new' car I just kept coming back to the Ford Focus. I looked at all the cars in that segment from all major manufacturers for reliability, durability (rust is an issue around here) and cost of maintenance/repairs (common issues). The Ford Focus just came out on top but would I dare to defy my uncle? I ended up buying one and it is cheap to run indeed. Including everything about 16 or 17 eurocents per km. It is about time for a next car because it is near 320k km. I have not decided what to buy yet and maybe I'll just give the Ford Focus a major overhaul for kicks and see if I can get another 160k km out of it (I may get the labour for free). OTOH the 1.0 Ecoboost engines look mighty interesting and the reliability seems to be OK (except for some teething problems but these have been addressed).

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

In what alternate universe is saving $50-100 (or more!) in fuel costs per month not financially sound?

That's not so because you've got to pony up front many more $ for the EV... and then (unless it's a hybrid) you also need to have another (ICE) car for long trips. Where's the savings then?

[mtdoc]

In what alternate universe is saving $50-100 (or more!) in fuel costs per month not financially sound?

That's not so because you've got to pony up front many more $ for the EV... and then (unless it's an hybrid) you also need to have another (ICE) car for long trips. Where's the savings then?

   If I pay $5-$10K more for an equivalent EV but save $1 - 2K a year in fuel and maintenance then, well you do the math...

BTW, my Volt only cost me $32K ($24.5K) after tax credit - so it actually cost less than a similarly equipped and performing ICE vehicle. (Same is true for my wife's Pacifica PHEV we bought last year).

By the time I pass it to my son when he turns 16 in 4 more years . It will have already saved me aproximately $10K in fuel and maintenance savings.   

Even better, my son will have a car with very low cost of ownership! 


Edit ( fixed brain fart on the math - sorry!)

[nctnico]

In what alternate universe is saving $50-100 (or more!) in fuel costs per month not financially sound?

That's not so because you've got to pony up front many more $ for the EV... and then (unless it's an hybrid) you also need to have another (ICE) car for long trips. Where's the savings then?

   If I pay $5-$10K more for an equivalent EV but save $4K a year in fuel and maintenance then, well you do the math...

BTW, my Volt only cost me $32K ($24.5K) after tax credit - so it actually cost less than a similarly equipped and performing ICE vehicle. (Same is true for my wife's Pacifica PHEV we bought last year).

By the time I pass it to my son when he turns 16 in 4 more years. It will have already saved me the entire cost in fuel savings.  It will have virtually been free!! 

Even better, my son will have a car with very low cost of ownership!

Until you have to change the battery. That is an unknown cost and there is not much data available to predict why and when this will need to happen.

By the way. According to this website (first hit I got from Google) the Volt is more expensive to run compared to the Ford Focus:
https://repairpal.com/cars/chevrolet/volt/2017
https://repairpal.com/cars/ford/focus/2016

[mtdoc]

By the way. According to this website the Volt is more expensive to run compared to the Ford Focus:
https://repairpal.com/cars/chevrolet/volt/2017
https://repairpal.com/cars/ford/focus/2016

A Ford Focus??    I wouldn't be caught dead driving such a POS car. 

And I call BS on those numbers.  They are based on assuming the need to repair several of a Volts ICE components and assume someone is driving in ICE mode the same amount of miles as the Focus.  Their website algorithm is obviously not designed for PHEVs and assumes heavy ICE use.

In 4 years I've only put about 3k miles on my Volts ICE and I've paid a total ZERO dollars in maintenance or repair. The only maintenance it has needed to date is one oil change and one tire rotation (both free under warranty).  Now due for second oil change and tire rotation - so that will cost like what $100. In that time period, any ICE would have required several oil changes, likely one brake pad replacement, and one tune up.

A Volt's battery is warranteed for 8 years and 100 K miles. So far there has been few battery replacements done.  At least one person has put 400k miles on his Volt's battery without noticeable degredation .  Best estimates right now are that without warranty coverage full battery replacement would cost $4-5K. That price will likely come down once warranties expire and there is a competitive market for replacements.  A typical modern car transmission or engine rebuild or replacement would cost a similar amount BTW.

Look at the recommended maintenance schedule on a Volt vs any ICE vehicle. Unless your are driving your VOLT ICE mode only  - you only need an oil change every 3 years, you will not need a brake service or ICE tune up  for a long time.   A pure EV of course would never need a oil change or a tune up.

BTW - see my edit above. I f'd up my first pass. (I've saved $4k in fuel on my volt in 4 years not 1 year.  )

[boffin]

No, you haven't shown the math.  Your argument was "Your EV" vs "Extremely inexpensive gasoline vehicle".

No, I compared an equivalent gasoline vehicle to compare apples with apples. The Ford Focus is targeted at the same audience as the VW Golf and thus lives in the same price range and has similar abilities. You are just proving my point that you seek justification for your purchase and therefore choose to ignore/warp the numbers.

Let me just summarize what you're saying:

"A VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't apples to apples, but a Ford Focus*1 vs VW eGolf is apples to apples".

Sorry, but you're so wrong here.


*1: with an engine not available in my market

Let's do the math with a Ford Focus vs Ford Focus electric, because you appear to be obsessed with the Ford.

Ford Focus Electric C$27,103 (after $5k grant in my jurisdiction) - we'll assume it gets the same real-world efficiency as my VW, 13.9kWh/100km = C$1.18/100km
Ford Focus SEL C$21,342 - quoted fuel economy 7.7l/100km @ 1.459 = C$11.23/100km

$0.1050/km cheaper for the electric
$5,761 price difference
... 54,866km until payback

That's 3-4 years for most people.

[IanMacdonald]

A very good point is that even if an EV meets your present range needs, that could change, leaving you with a vehicle that will probably not achieve at resale anything like the price you paid for it. Need not even be a job change, you could be told to add servicing an item 100 miles away once a week to your schedule. Employer won't understand why you can't do that, after all you agreed to use your car for business. 

[boffin]

A very good point is that even if an EV meets your present range needs, that could change, leaving you with a vehicle that will probably not achieve at resale anything like the price you paid for it. Need not even be a job change, you could be told to add servicing an item 100 miles away once a week to your schedule. Employer won't understand why you can't do that, after all you agreed to use your car for business. 

Let's point out what an edge case yours is;

• few people use their vehicle for their jobs (other than commuting there and back)
• most people would understand the scope of how much they'd need to travel, if it was part of their job, and a sudden change to add a weekly distant target would be fairly unusual.

By the  same logic you should buy the largest vehicle on the road, because at some point you might be expected to carry a lot of cargo.

However, back in the  world of reality, the gal suddenly getting a 200mi run weekly, would be jumping for joy. In your jurisdiction (UK) the general rate for expensing your own vehicle per mile (per the tax dept https://www.gov.uk/expenses-and-benefits-business-travel-mileage/rules-for-tax) is 45p/mile.  So for that 200 mile (322km) return trip you'd pocket 90 quid, for a car that would consume only  £6.45 in electricity (13.9kwH/100km * 3.22 * 14.4p/kWh); whereas your gasoline or oil burning pals would probably use 20-30l of a petroleum based fuel, or a best-case £25 worth of diesel (20l @ 1.25)

Of course that 6.45 of electricity is based on home average usage, and most people would have overnight chargers, lowering the cost by 1/2 to 4/5 (see https://www.telegraph.co.uk/bills-and-utilities/gas-electric/new-electricity-tariff-offers-80pc-discount-night-time-usage/)

The 30-60 mins in additional charging you'd need to get at your destination would be relatively easy to obtain.  I've posted a map of fast chargers in the UK, along a 100mi journey (I used for an example High Wycombe -> Bournemouth, which is right around 100mi depending on the route you pick).

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Only that:

1) It's not 13.9 kWh/100km but 13.9/0.85= 16.4 kWh/100km (And I doubt even that figure unless you always drive like a grandma)
2) To recharge 3.22*16.4= 53kWh overnight @ 2..3 kW (usual max power at a normal schuko unless you turn off everything else in your house, i.e. sleep w/o A/C, dish washer off, etc.) it takes... between 18 and 26.5 hours.
3) The cheapest Model S with that range is +63k $ after rebates, tax deductions, etc. A Skoda Superb starts at 22k €.

[DougSpindler]

By the way. According to this website the Volt is more expensive to run compared to the Ford Focus:
https://repairpal.com/cars/chevrolet/volt/2017
https://repairpal.com/cars/ford/focus/2016

A Ford Focus??    I wouldn't be caught dead driving such a POS car. 

And I call BS on those numbers.  They are based on assuming the need to repair several of a Volts ICE components and assume someone is driving in ICE mode the same amount of miles as the Focus.  Their website algorithm is obviously not designed for PHEVs and assumes heavy ICE use.

In 4 years I've only put about 3k miles on my Volts ICE and I've paid a total ZERO dollars in maintenance or repair. The only maintenance it has needed to date is one oil change and one tire rotation (both free under warranty).  Now due for second oil change and tire rotation - so that will cost like what $100. In that time period, any ICE would have required several oil changes, likely one brake pad replacement, and one tune up.

A Volt's battery is warranteed for 8 years and 100 K miles. So far there has been few battery replacements done.  At least one person has put 400k miles on his Volt's battery without noticeable degredation .  Best estimates right now are that without warranty coverage full battery replacement would cost $4-5K. That price will likely come down once warranties expire and there is a competitive market for replacements.  A typical modern car transmission or engine rebuild or replacement would cost a similar amount BTW.

Look at the recommended maintenance schedule on a Volt vs any ICE vehicle. Unless your are driving your VOLT ICE mode only  - you only need an oil change every 3 years, you will not need a brake service or ICE tune up  for a long time.   A pure EV of course would never need a oil change or a tune up.

BTW - see my edit above. I f'd up my first pass. (I've saved $4k in fuel on my volt in 4 years not 1 year.  )

With 400K miles one has to wonder how many of those miles were on battery and how much were on the ICE?   It is quite possible the reason there is no battery wear is because most of the miles were on ICE and batteries were hardly uses.

[mtdoc]

It shows in the link that 141.8 K miles were battery only (full EV mode) miles. Though it’s important to note that the other miles would have also involved the battery due to the serial hybrid nature of the cars design. But fair point, i should have worded my post better.

[boffin]

Only that:

1) It's not 13.9 kWh/100km but 13.9/0.85= 16.4 kWh/100km (And I doubt even that figure unless you always drive like a grandma)
2) To recharge 3.22*16.4= 53kWh overnight @ 2..3 kW (usual max power at a normal schuko unless you turn off everything else in your house, i.e. sleep w/o A/C, dish washer off, etc.) it takes... between 18 and 26.5 hours.
3) The cheapest Model S with that range is +63k $ after rebates, tax deductions, etc. A Skoda Superb starts at 22k €.

1) I've been getting 13.9 over the lifetime of the car (admittedly it only has a few thousand km on it now).  Charging losses are nowhere near 15%, perhaps 5-6%; but then I quoted EPA/DOT quoted fuel economy for the ICE car as well, which is rarely anything like reality.
2) I don't know anyone who has a schuko outlet, I live in North America.  I have a 240V/30A outlet I charge from (@22-24A)
3) Are you seriously saying that a Model S and Sokda Superb are equivilent vehicles? Please compare apples to apples (like VW to VW or Ford to Ford)

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

1) I've been getting 13.9 over the lifetime of the car (admittedly it only has a few thousand km on it now).  Charging losses are nowhere near 15%, perhaps 5-6%;

You need a wall outlet energy meter, it seems to me, or you're never going to get it.

2) I don't know anyone who has a schuko outlet, I live in North America.  I have a 240V/30A outlet I charge from (@22-24A)

Then for every hour of recharge @ 240*22= 5.28 kW, you will be able to get 240*22*0.85= 4.48 kWh out of the battery.

3) Are you seriously saying that a Model S and Sokda Superb are equivilent vehicles?

Equivalent, no. The Skoda is surely better. Have been making fine cars in the Czech Republic since 1895.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%A0koda_Auto

[mtdoc]

1) I've been getting 13.9 over the lifetime of the car (admittedly it only has a few thousand km on it now).  Charging losses are nowhere near 15%, perhaps 5-6%;

You need a wall outlet energy meter, it seems to me, or you're never going to get it.

You need to actually own an EV or you'll never get it.

I have measured my Volt and I see about 92% efficiency (8% loss). This is by direct measurement of watts in (using a kill-a-watt meter with the 120V charger) versus watts out (reported by the Volt).  240 V charging would likely be slightly more efficient.

[DougSpindler]

1) I've been getting 13.9 over the lifetime of the car (admittedly it only has a few thousand km on it now).  Charging losses are nowhere near 15%, perhaps 5-6%;

You need a wall outlet energy meter, it seems to me, or you're never going to get it.

You need to actually own an EV or you'll never get it.

I have measured my Volt and I see about 92% efficiency (8% loss). This is by direct measurement of watts in (using a kill-a-watt meter with the 120V charger) versus watts out (reported by the Volt).  240 V charging would likely be slightly more efficient.

I was told 120v charger was slightly more efficient than the 220 volt.  Reason why, (I was told), is charging at 220 v generates more heat while charging if compared to 120v.

Not sure if that’s true or how much less heat is created.

The volt does have a charging cooling fan that turns on at times (roars) when charging on warm days at 220. 

[nctnico]

I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters. In any consumer power supply they make 300V from either 120V AC (full bridge rectified) or 220V AC (half bridge rectified). The next stage is a PFC ofcourse.

[mtdoc]

I was told 120v charger was slightly more efficient than the 220 volt.  Reason why, (I was told), is charging at 220 v generates more heat while charging if compared to 120v.

The opposite is true. Higher voltage means lower amperage - means less voltage drop/ less wire losses/less heat.

[mtdoc]

I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters.

Doubt all you want but Kill-a-Watt meters are pretty accurate (less so for purely inductive loads).  Specs say power accuracy is 0.5% - I've checked mine against in line and clamp meters and it's always pretty close - within 1% - 2% at worst.  This is not true for small loads of course (below 5 watts or so) - which it is not designed to measure.

But whatever.. continue to twist and turn if you must - but the math doesn't lie. Whether EV charge efficiency is 85%, 90%, or 95%, the outcome is the same. WORST case is that after 5 - 10  years of ownership, any EV price premium you might pay (and in some cases there really isn't any) will be recouped in fuel savings. In most cases it will be much sooner.

EDIT:  ignore reference to nctnico's post since i misread ''matters" as "meters"   

[nctnico]

I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters.

Doubt all you want but Kill-a-Watt meters are pretty accurate (less so for purely inductive loads).  Specs say power accuracy is 0.5% - I've checked mine against in line and clamp meters and it's always pretty close - within 1% - 2% at worst.  This is not true for small loads of course (below 5 watts or so) - which it is not designed to measure.

I don't know what you are raving on about. You didn't test 120V versus 240V charging so you don't know. I doubt it makes much difference because it makes sense to keep the DC rails after the PFC at around 450VDC.

[mtdoc]

I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters.

Doubt all you want but Kill-a-Watt meters are pretty accurate (less so for purely inductive loads).  Specs say power accuracy is 0.5% - I've checked mine against in line and clamp meters and it's always pretty close - within 1% - 2% at worst.  This is not true for small loads of course (below 5 watts or so) - which it is not designed to measure.

I don't know what you are raving on about. You didn't test 120V versus 240V charging so you don't know. I doubt it makes much difference because it makes sense to keep the DC rails after the PFC at around 450VDC.

 
Raving?  You made a claim about the accuracy of a kill-a -watt meter and I refuted it with facts. It has nothing to do with 120 vs 240V. And nothing to do with PFC. Like all of your other fact-free assertions in this thread, it did not hold up to scrutiny. 

EDIT: see correction below. I misread "matters" as "meters"

[nctnico]

I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters.

Doubt all you want but Kill-a-Watt meters are pretty accurate (less so for purely inductive loads).  Specs say power accuracy is 0.5% - I've checked mine against in line and clamp meters and it's always pretty close - within 1% - 2% at worst.  This is not true for small loads of course (below 5 watts or so) - which it is not designed to measure.

I don't know what you are raving on about. You didn't test 120V versus 240V charging so you don't know. I doubt it makes much difference because it makes sense to keep the DC rails after the PFC at around 450VDC.

 
Raving?  You made a claim about the accuracy of a kill-a -watt meter and I refuted it with facts. It has nothing to do with 120 vs 240V. And nothing to do with PFC. Like all of your other fact-free assertions in this thread, it did not hold up to scrutiny.

Stop posting until you are sober again. I never made any claims about the Kill-a-watt meter being inaccurate. You are mixing people up now.

[mtdoc]

Stop posting until you are sober again. I never made any claims about the Kill-a-watt meter being inaccurate. You are mixing people up now.

OK - calm down.    I read your post where you  said " I highly doubt the mains voltage matters"  as " I highly doubt the mains voltage meters"  If you read my response it should be clear that is  what I was responding to.  (I've added a note to bottom of posts with my error)

Now, for the issue of 120 versus 240V charging.  I responded to Dougs post stating that 220 V would be less efficient than 120V due to more heat being generated.

I'm not an engineer by trade but even I know that assertion is nonsense. Do you agree with his assertion that increasing the voltage will mean more heat (for a given power)?

PFC or not, increased voltage/decreased amps generally improves power electronics efficiency. Are you disagreeing with that?

[boffin]

1) I've been getting 13.9 over the lifetime of the car (admittedly it only has a few thousand km on it now).  Charging losses are nowhere near 15%, perhaps 5-6%;

You need a wall outlet energy meter, it seems to me, or you're never going to get it.

I do get it.  I post facts, you read what you want.

And, I've many many times said I realize there are charging losses, however, those are probably similar (or less than) the difference between the EPA/DOT figures for fuel economy for ICE cars I've been quoting here, and their real world numbers.

Oh, and I do have a wall outlet energy meter, my charger tells me exactly how much. 
I've "filled" my car up today, I'll run the next 150km or so, and then fill again and compare the in-car usage with the distance/kWh required to top it back up.  I'm guessing well under 10% difference.

You need to stop jumping to conclusions, and instead look at the real world numbers that the owners of BEV / PHEV vehicles are posting here

[DougSpindler]

I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters. In any consumer power supply they make 300V from either 120V AC (full bridge rectified) or 220V AC (half bridge rectified). The next stage is a PFC ofcourse.

Not so sure I would agree as you are not factoring in the current.  There is twice as much current at 220.  Would it not make sense more heat would be generated due to higher current and voltage?