Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 136515 times)

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Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2375 on: December 05, 2018, 07:20:52 am »
I'm talking year over year comparison for November (i.e. monthly) sales.

November 2017:  17,178
November 2018:  39,274
I'm not sure monthly sales are a good comparison if you look at how the sales of some key models bounce around. For example, why did sales of the Volt double from October to November? Year over year probably averages too much in this rapidly rising market, but month by month looks really noisy.
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2376 on: December 05, 2018, 07:24:11 am »
Yeah, monthly data is too noisy.  I mean gee, electric sales dropped by a quarter from October to November.  Electric cars must be going the way of Bitcoin.  :palm:
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2377 on: December 05, 2018, 07:29:05 am »
Are you reading the same charts?

2016 Sales (US)  158,614
2017 Sales (US)  199,818
2018 Sales (US)  308,003

I guess if you round up to the nearest integer it counts as doubling of sales between 2017 and 2018.  Barely.  The totals are impressive and a good trend, but let's be honest.  Even if December sales are off the chart it will be less than double.  A believer sees the world in their own way, just as non-believers do.

The trend is clear and unless something changes (major recession, a kink in the supply chain, sudden drop in oil prices) it is clear that sales will be into a double digit percentage of total sales in the next few years.  Which would be one metric for the title of the thread- electric becoming mainstream.
Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.
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One thing I found interesting was the percentage of worldwide sales in the US.  That is the climate change denying, car bedazzled, some of the lowest gas prices in the world, relatively long driving distances US.  Electrics are sold at about the same percentage of total sales here as in the rest of the world, even though many of the factors involved in their selection seem to work against US sales.  What is going on in the rest of the world?

In Europe the distances between cities are smaller so it is cheaper and more convenient (no time table to adhere to) to drive than to use the airplane. I also have a feeling cars are way more expensive in Europe due to taxes, higher safety and higher quality demands. Together with higher income taxes people just don't have the money to buy multiple cars in Europe. So one car should be able to do it all (including the long journey every now and then).
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2378 on: December 05, 2018, 07:33:09 am »
I'm talking year over year comparison for November (i.e. monthly) sales.

November 2017:  17,178
November 2018:  39,274

And I bet you you prick the right daily totals you will be able to find even better or worse statistics.
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2379 on: December 05, 2018, 07:33:47 am »
Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.
The people I know with a PHEV got them because they do a lot of short journeys. They get a lot of their mileage from their mains charges.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2380 on: December 05, 2018, 07:38:06 am »
Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.
The people I know with a PHEV got them because they do a lot of short journeys. They get a lot of their mileage from their mains charges.
That is only people you know. In the Netherlands all tax incentives on PHEVs got cancelled because the cars where running on fuel and not electricity.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2381 on: December 05, 2018, 08:15:12 am »
Yeah, monthly data is too noisy.  I mean gee, electric sales dropped by a quarter from October to November.  Electric cars must be going the way of Bitcoin.  :palm:

Year over year, monthly data is THE STANDARD way that auto sales are evaluated. There is strong seasonality and so it is the year over year monthly data that is considered the best measure of sales growth or decline. This is how all auto industry economic/financial analysis is done. 

Yearly totals are obviously important as well. 2018 is not over yet but based on the numbers to date - the yearly sales growth of EVs is continuing its phenomenal pace.   This despite a slowdown in overall auto sales.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2382 on: December 05, 2018, 08:19:36 am »
Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.

Absolute bullshit. On several levels.

PHEVs are EVs. Most have ranges which allow >90% of driving to be all electric.
 
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Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2383 on: December 05, 2018, 08:23:29 am »
Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.

Absolute bullshit. On several levels.

PHEVs are EVs. Most have ranges which allow >90% of driving to be all electric.
Well then explain why the Dutch government doesn't consider PHEVs as EVs? It seems to me a bunch of people capable of running a country disagree with you.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2384 on: December 05, 2018, 08:27:31 am »
Summary of this thread:

Question:  Are EVs on track to become mainstream?

One side:


Factual data on rapid EV sales growth and adoption rates.
Factual data on expansion of EV models being sold by multiple manufacturers.
Factual data regarding automaker plans to continue to expand EV offerings.
Factual data regarding automaker investment in developing new EVs.
Factual data regarding driving habits and feasibility of widespread adoption.
Reality of necessary phase out of fossil fuel vehicles.
First hand reports from several EV owners.


The other side:

Opinions, speculation and misinformation.

 ::)
 
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Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2385 on: December 05, 2018, 09:15:18 am »
You forgot to add 'It is true. Really'.  :-DD
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Offline IanB

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2386 on: December 05, 2018, 01:52:16 pm »
In the Netherlands all tax incentives on PHEVs got cancelled because the cars where running on fuel and not electricity.

Tax incentives get cancelled in order to raise tax revenues. No government ever turned down an extra opportunity to tax things.

In the UK petrol is so expensive that people with electric cars make sure to do as much driving as possible under electric power. From personal knowledge that includes driving in and around London as well as journeys around the suburbs. I am sure fuel is just as expensive in the Netherlands. If people with PHEVs use gasoline instead of electricity it just means they are wealthy and they treat their cars as toys. Which explains why the government might choose to tax them more.
I'm not an EE--what am I doing here?
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2387 on: December 05, 2018, 02:40:01 pm »
Summary of this thread:

Question:  Are EVs on track to become mainstream?

One side:


Factual data on rapid EV sales growth and adoption rates.
Factual data on expansion of EV models being sold by multiple manufacturers.
Factual data regarding automaker plans to continue to expand EV offerings.
Factual data regarding automaker investment in developing new EVs.
Factual data regarding driving habits and feasibility of widespread adoption.
Reality of necessary phase out of fossil fuel vehicles.
First hand reports from several EV owners.


The other side:

Opinions, speculation and misinformation.

 ::)

Well that is one way to see it.  Of course first hand reports from EV owners is good data.  First hand reports of ICE owners is opinion.  Data selected from a set is not misinformation.  And the need to phase out fossil fuel vehicles is not a commandment to electric vehicles.  Electric vehicles are one solution.  An arguably better solution is to go to high density housing and electric mass transit.  But then the opinion is raised that that is too hard, or too much impact on lifestyle.  After discounting opinions on lifestyle impact of eliminating ICE cars.

There are facts and data available.  Why not apply them and stop selling.  The question of the thread is when EV will become mainstream.  Using the sales data from the recent post you can provide one answer to the question.  The data fit an exponential growth pattern reasonably well.  You can extrapolate that into the future and get an answer, depending on your definition of mainstream.  In my mind the lowest penetration that would qualify is 10% while 50% penetration would be pretty undeniable.  With exponential growth the difference between the answers is not really significant.  10% comes in 2027 and 50% comes in 2029.

The argument now becomes whether that growth rate can be maintained.  The chart does make clear the scale of the change that will have to occur to make it true.

 
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2388 on: December 05, 2018, 04:17:03 pm »
Of course first hand reports from EV owners is good data.  First hand reports of ICE owners is opinion.

Nonsense.  ICE vehicle owners reporting info about ICE vehicle ownership is data. ICE only owners speculating about EV ownership experience is speculation not data.  And BTW I don't think there are any EV owners here (and very few anywhere) who have not also owned an ICE vehicle.

Quote
And the need to phase out fossil fuel vehicles is not a commandment to electric vehicles.  Electric vehicles are one solution.
  Sure, but when it comes to personal transportation - all other alternatives explored to date (e.g. hydrogen, biofuels ) have fallen far short of the success of EVs. The market has spoken.

Quote
An arguably better solution is to go to high density housing and electric mass transit.
  Good options and viable adjunct modes of transportation. It's not either/or.  Are you arguing that a complete loss of personal transporation is a solution?  I have long held that in the end there will by necessity be far fewer personal vehicles on the road but not none.  High density housing, walkable and bike-able communities along with electric mass transport all make good sense.

Quote
There are facts and data available.  Why not apply them and stop selling
  I'm not selling anything. Throughout this thread, I and others have presented referenced facts as well as personal experiences on EV use.  The data speaks for itself. EV sales, the number of EV models available, and the number of upcoming releases from all the major auto manufacturers are all exploding upward. Those are just the facts. Presenting them and pointing out the obvious conclusion, that EVs are very quickly becoming mainstream is not selling anything - it's acknowledging reality.


Quote
Using the sales data from the recent post you can provide one answer to the question.  The data fit an exponential growth pattern reasonably well.  You can extrapolate that into the future and get an answer, depending on your definition of mainstream.  In my mind the lowest penetration that would qualify is 10% while 50% penetration would be pretty undeniable.  With exponential growth the difference between the answers is not really significant.  10% comes in 2027 and 50% comes in 2029.

The argument now becomes whether that growth rate can be maintained.  The chart does make clear the scale of the change that will have to occur to make it true.

Nice effort. Though if you are plotting US auto sales, your end point for sales is extremely unrealistic. US monthly auto sales are on the order of 1.5 million per month.  Even if your are plotting global sales, it is way off. Global car sales average about 6.5 million per month. Your graph shows 50 million!! :wtf:

If you're trying to plot global sales, your EV volumes are way off. Global monthly EV sales are approximately 150k currently.  Far greater than the 40k in your graph.   

I assume these were honest mistakes and you weren't intentionally trying to mislead...

« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 04:18:37 pm by mtdoc »
 
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Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2389 on: December 05, 2018, 05:08:16 pm »
There were errors in my plot.  It was based on numbers I remembered for world auto sales and the percentage of those sales in the US.  Your comment caused me to look up the numbers.  According to https://www.statista.com/statistics/199983/us-vehicle-sales-since-1951/ US auto sales have been about 17 million annually for the last few years.  I can't predict future trends here so I have assumed constant sales for the future.  This could easily be wrong, in either direction.  Population growth would say it should go up.  Some demographic trends say that the younger generations aren't into cars as much as their predecessors.  I also didn't factor in seasonal sales rate variations, just divided the total sales by 12.  This is also sales of light vehicles.  Some will argue that you shouldn't compare EV to light vehicles which includes pickup trucks and the like, but the US buying public largely treats pickups as interchangeable with other personal vehicles.  This is also relevant to the point that the plant closings at GM and others was announced as allowing investment in EV AND trucks, SUVs and crossovers which is what is selling in the current market.

Percentage also missed the factor of 100 required to convert from a fraction.  Both mistakes stupidity rather than intent.

The revised graph is attached.   Crossover points move to 2021 for 10% and 2023 for 50%

Obviously the exponential growth curve will be violated as EV approaches total sales.  Corporate executives will be canned by the dozens as they try to transition from an explosive growth model to a market saturation condition.  If EV are as reliable as expected this could hit even earlier.
 
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Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2390 on: December 05, 2018, 05:29:01 pm »
Of course first hand reports from EV owners is good data.  First hand reports of ICE owners is opinion.

Nonsense.  ICE vehicle owners reporting info about ICE vehicle ownership is data. ICE only owners speculating about EV ownership experience is speculation not data.  And BTW I don't think there are any EV owners here (and very few anywhere) who have not also owned an ICE vehicle.


I agree that most EV owners are previous ICE owners.  I presume they checked their use case before buying EV so it is not surprising that they are happy with their purchase. 

I guess using published data on charging times and charge station location against your personal case is not data, but it is analysis.  Something that is done all the time in engineering.  It is usually not called speculation.

EV owners speculating about the use cases of other drivers is speculation not data.  It is a fact that the vast majority of trips are within EV capabilities.  It is also a fact that the other trips are made and make a difference.  Whether those trips can be skipped (is this trip really necessary), solved with a rental, route planning or whatever depends highly on the individual situation.  A person not in that situation is speculating. 
 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2391 on: December 05, 2018, 05:48:19 pm »
The revised graph is attached.   Crossover points move to 2021 for 10% and 2023 for 50%

Canada is over 8% for EV sales for cars right now (just cars, not trucks or vans or...).  I would guess the 10% will easily be exceeded next year.

Interestingly Canada has two distinct demographics, with some living in VERY sparse localities where a 450km drive to reach the nearest traffic light is not uncommon; but half of the population live in the top 8 densely populated metropolitan areas.
 
Canada 37.1m

Toronto 5.9m
Montreal 4.1m
Vancouver 2.5m
Calgary 1.4m
Ottawa 1.3m
Edmonton 1.3m
Quebec 0.8m
Hamilton 0.7m
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Online james_s

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2392 on: December 05, 2018, 05:58:48 pm »
You guys are still beating this dead horse?

EV's are going to continue to gain popularity for quite some time, ICE vehicles are not going to vanish any time soon but larger and larger percentages of cars on the road are going to be EVs, the fact that they work for a great many people is just that, a fact.

That's not going to convince anyone who has a religious belief that they don't work though, you will never convince those people with data because their argument is not based on data, it's based on emotion. Trying to use logic in an emotional debate is futile, the other side will dig in their heals, engage in mental gymnastics, move the goalpost, dodge, deflect and distract, come up with every imaginable edge case and project that on everyone, you can't win, no point in trying.
 
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Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2393 on: December 05, 2018, 06:35:18 pm »


EV's are going to continue to gain popularity for quite some time, ICE vehicles are not going to vanish any time soon but larger and larger percentages of cars on the road are going to be EVs, the fact that they work for a great many people is just that, a fact.
The study I linked to earlier clearly showed the majority of the people doesn't want to have an EV due to limitations in their current state of technology. That is a fact which shows EVs won't become mainstream in the next 5 to 20 years.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 06:42:36 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 
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Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2394 on: December 05, 2018, 07:04:31 pm »
Quote
clearly showed the majority of the people doesn't want to have an EV due to limitations in their current state of technology.
Well, your study is clearly BS, because it has been proven wrong since.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2395 on: December 05, 2018, 08:46:50 pm »
Quote
clearly showed the majority of the people doesn't want to have an EV due to limitations in their current state of technology.
Well, your study is clearly BS, because it has been proven wrong since.
Tell that to the people running the Netherlands. Use Google translate because the study is well worth the read. Before doing any wild extrapolations you have to research where the market saturation point for EVs is at. The market saturation will be determined whether people are willing to buy EVs or not. For example: In 2017 Ford sold 896764 F series pick-up trucks in the US alone and by the looks of it they are going to sell a similar number of these vehicles in 2018. It would be interesting to find out how why the buyers of these cars didn't buy an EV.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 08:54:49 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2396 on: December 06, 2018, 02:56:03 am »
I would like to point out that every new ICE car sold very often means two ICE car sales, one new and one second hand. In the (new) car sales graphs we only see one of them.
int main (void) { while (1) fork(); }
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2397 on: December 06, 2018, 05:02:16 am »
I would like to point out that every new ICE car sold very often means two ICE car sales, one new and one second hand. In the (new) car sales graphs we only see one of them.
That is another good point. How many EVs get sold which don't replace an ICE car? In the USA the number of registered passenger cars grew by 5 million between 2015 and 2016.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2398 on: December 06, 2018, 06:50:58 am »
There is some silliness involved here.  It's like asking when evolution will be done.  This is an experiment that's underway and you are trying to predict the outcome years before the experiment is over.

As people have pointed out, we don't have a clear definition of what an EV is.  And when it comes to car sales what is a car?  Are trucks, sedans, and SUV's considered "cars"?  In some figures and charts they are and in others they are not.

Then we have to factor in government subsidies and cash rebates.   If I were to buy an EV this month I would receive over $10,000 in tax credits and cash rebates.  If I wait a month that amount will decrease by one third.  As a result, I would expect December to exceptionally strong EV car sales with a huge drop off in January.  This will produce more skewed figures. 
Try some imperial data.  EV adoption is going to depend on supply and demand.  Can we agree pretty much all car manufactures are ramping up EV car production?  There’s your supply.  Then ask consumers of ICE if the next new car (not truck, SUV, sedan) if it would be an EV?  I think you might find 10%-15% would consider it with maybe 1% to 3% actually making the purchase.

Then ask same question to an EV owner.  I think you will find 99.7 of EV owners buy an EV again with less than 1% buying a ICE.
It’s a slow creep but as more car manufactures produce EVs more consumers will buy them.
Now as for refueling issues we are getting there.  I have two 50a EV plugs in my garage even though I only have one EV.  Yes, my next car will be a EV. (PEV)

As for EV fueling stations all I’m hearing is more are being created.  Compare that to gas/petro stations in the US and you’ll see a lot have closed over the years.  I don’t know of anyone who would say today I’m going to open a gas station.
So, we can agree and disagree over all of the data points we have so far.  But the real test will be to see what’s going to happen to the car companies.  With Volvo going all EV, and Ford wanting to become a “tech company” like Tesla, and GM closing 15 assembly plants could be in a few years consumers will have a very large selection of EV cars to choose from.  Then let’s not forget there are several companies working on EV light trucks.

The experiment is not over.  Just give it a bit more time.


 

Offline Neilm

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2399 on: December 06, 2018, 07:05:23 am »
There was a very interesting article I read that compared the take up of EVs to the take up of other hi tech devices (phones, home electricity, TVs, PCs smart phones and the like). It concluded that at some point there would be a dip in ICE car sales as people decide not to buy a new ICE car and wait for an EV. Then EV car sales pick up until they hit a tipping point at which point the EV sales really go. Full article is at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond. It then goes on to extrapolate what would happen to the oil market at that point.
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