Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 136164 times)

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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2575 on: December 23, 2018, 11:46:15 pm »
Here’s why EV’s won’t become mainstream in Australia any time soon.

 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2576 on: December 23, 2018, 11:53:10 pm »
We definitely need a yadda yadda yadda yadda emoticon on EEVblog. This guy talks a lot but says nothing. Check his website. He claims he has a degree in mechanical engineering and yet he is a car salesman.  :palm: Didn't it occur to you that everything he says is driven by how he can make the most money from car sales?
« Last Edit: December 24, 2018, 12:31:25 am by nctnico »
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Offline gildasd

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2577 on: December 24, 2018, 02:02:11 am »
We definitely need a yadda yadda yadda yadda emoticon on EEVblog. This guy talks a lot but says nothing. Check his website. He claims he has a degree in mechanical engineering and yet he is a car salesman.  :palm: Didn't it occur to you that everything he says is driven by how he can make the most money from car sales?
He makes good points, but in the context of an Oz living in the burbs of a major metro.


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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2578 on: December 24, 2018, 04:43:56 am »
We definitely need a yadda yadda yadda yadda emoticon on EEVblog. This guy talks a lot but says nothing. Check his website. He claims he has a degree in mechanical engineering and yet he is a car salesman.  :palm: Didn't it occur to you that everything he says is driven by how he can make the most money from car sales?

For a guy who “makes his money from car sales” he sure bashes the products he sells.  And he must be really stupid as the more expensive car brands are the ones he bashes the most.

I live in American and am not an engineer, but I did graduate with a science degree from UC Berkeley.  I gotta say his down under engineering explanations agree with the laws of physics we abide by in the United States.  What do you think he’s getting wrong when it comes to engineering/physics ?

 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2579 on: December 24, 2018, 04:47:36 am »
We definitely need a yadda yadda yadda yadda emoticon on EEVblog. This guy talks a lot but says nothing. Check his website. He claims he has a degree in mechanical engineering and yet he is a car salesman.  :palm: Didn't it occur to you that everything he says is driven by how he can make the most money from car sales?
For a guy who “makes his money from car sales” he sure bashes the products he sells.  And he must be really stupid as the more expensive car brands are the ones he bashes the most.
Expensive car doesn't equal highest profit margin. Or he may not even be able to dip in that pond at all. Did you think about that?
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2580 on: December 24, 2018, 05:58:34 am »
We definitely need a yadda yadda yadda yadda emoticon on EEVblog. This guy talks a lot but says nothing. Check his website. He claims he has a degree in mechanical engineering and yet he is a car salesman.  :palm: Didn't it occur to you that everything he says is driven by how he can make the most money from car sales?
For a guy who “makes his money from car sales” he sure bashes the products he sells.  And he must be really stupid as the more expensive car brands are the ones he bashes the most.
Expensive car doesn't equal highest profit margin. Or he may not even be able to dip in that pond at all. Did you think about that?


Yes I have, and I do agree with you.  But I asked you where do you find a flaw in his engineering or physics?  You seem to have a problem with things he has said, but haven't said what.  So what are yout taking issue with?  You might be right, but then again he might be.  Need more information to decide.




 

Offline fsr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2581 on: December 24, 2018, 08:45:00 am »
Well, i watched the video until he mentioned that you need clean energy sources for the EVs to really make sense, and i agree with that. With polluting energy generation, you only get to move the pollution from the cars exhausts to the electric plants. That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
EVs have regen. That's a very interesting technology, and saves energy. I heared that F1 use flywheels and/or electric systems, but didn't heared of any ICE car on the market that uses that. Maybe too expensive. Still, it seems logical to think that an electric motor attached to an ICE and a supercap bank, and power electronic systems, would allow to get regen and start/stop. The electric motor could replace the alternator and the starter.
Supercaps are still expensive, however, and i have no idea how many of them would be needed to get a reasonable amount of regeneration, probably a lot of them. I hope that in the future the cost goes down, and high % regen be available.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2582 on: December 24, 2018, 09:32:34 am »
FYI: the Toyota Prius has been on the market for 10 to 15 years already and it has regenerative braking + batteries right from the start. It is the whole idea behind the car: put an efficient (Atkinson cycle) ICE engine in it and use an electric motor to fill in the gaps where the ICE doesn't have a lot of power. Nowadays you can buy pure ICE cars with better mileage compared to the original Prius though.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2018, 09:34:26 am by nctnico »
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Offline fsr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2583 on: December 24, 2018, 09:51:52 am »
FYI: the Toyota Prius has been on the market for 10 to 15 years already and it has regenerative braking + batteries right from the start. It is the whole idea behind the car: put an efficient (Atkinson cycle) ICE engine in it and use an electric motor to fill in the gaps where the ICE doesn't have a lot of power. Nowadays you can buy pure ICE cars with better mileage compared to the original Prius though.

Well, i didn't meant a full hybrid car, but i suppose that an ice with electric regen qualifies as such. There are flywheel systems like the KERS, also, but not in any production car that i know about.
 

Online NiHaoMike

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2584 on: December 24, 2018, 01:09:14 pm »
Well, i watched the video until he mentioned that you need clean energy sources for the EVs to really make sense, and i agree with that. With polluting energy generation, you only get to move the pollution from the cars exhausts to the electric plants. That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
The nice part about EVs is that you can install your own solar to go green.
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2585 on: December 24, 2018, 04:43:00 pm »
Well, i watched the video until he mentioned that you need clean energy sources for the EVs to really make sense, and i agree with that. With polluting energy generation, you only get to move the pollution from the cars exhausts to the electric plants. That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
The nice part about EVs is that you can install your own solar to go green.

Not quite unless you can take the solar panels with you on trips.  The leaf is doing this.  Only problem is I thing the solar panel that’s on the car would take several months to recharge the batteries.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2586 on: December 24, 2018, 04:48:21 pm »
Well, i watched the video until he mentioned that you need clean energy sources for the EVs to really make sense, and i agree with that. With polluting energy generation, you only get to move the pollution from the cars exhausts to the electric plants. That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
EVs have regen. That's a very interesting technology, and saves energy. I heared that F1 use flywheels and/or electric systems, but didn't heared of any ICE car on the market that uses that. Maybe too expensive. Still, it seems logical to think that an electric motor attached to an ICE and a supercap bank, and power electronic systems, would allow to get regen and start/stop. The electric motor could replace the alternator and the starter.
Supercaps are still expensive, however, and i have no idea how many of them would be needed to get a reasonable amount of regeneration, probably a lot of them. I hope that in the future the cost goes down, and high % regen be available.

I thought you were objecting to something the guy was saying in the video. 

I don’t think you will ever find flywheels of any size or energy storage in a passenger car.  While they do store a lot of energy, any idea what would happen to the stored energy in the flywheel in an accident?  In the Industrial Age flywheels were quite common and the destrriction they caused when a bearing failed was surprisingly quite large.
 
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Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2587 on: December 24, 2018, 08:29:04 pm »
Quote
That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
No it's not.
From the energy point of view, the gain is huge: you'll need approx 2.5x less CO2.
Yes you need 2.5x less oil to run EVs from 100% fossil plants !
So even that non optimal setup makes muuuch sense.
From other contaminants, it's even better, the gain for SO2 and particulates is over 100x, because most plants use electrostatic and/or wet scrubbers.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2018, 08:31:34 pm by f4eru »
 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2588 on: December 24, 2018, 11:58:21 pm »
Quote
That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
No it's not.
From the energy point of view, the gain is huge: you'll need approx 2.5x less CO2.
Yes you need 2.5x less oil to run EVs from 100% fossil plants !
So even that non optimal setup makes muuuch sense.
From other contaminants, it's even better, the gain for SO2 and particulates is over 100x, because most plants use electrostatic and/or wet scrubbers.
It has been proven over and over again that that number isn't true when comparing against efficient ICE cars. Not to mention the huge amount of extra energy needed to make the EV's battery. The latter is a big problem when it comes to EVs. Cars are responsible for about 12% to 15% of CO2 emissions. Industry sits at around 40%. Producing EVs shifts part of the CO2 and other emissions to industry.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2589 on: December 25, 2018, 02:03:12 am »
Quote
That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
No it's not.
From the energy point of view, the gain is huge: you'll need approx 2.5x less CO2.
Yes you need 2.5x less oil to run EVs from 100% fossil plants !
So even that non optimal setup makes muuuch sense.
From other contaminants, it's even better, the gain for SO2 and particulates is over 100x, because most plants use electrostatic and/or wet scrubbers.

And you are ommiyying the fact not all fossil fuel power plant have scrubbers and the ones that have them don’t always use them.  It costs a lot of money to power and maintain the scrubbers, something the power companies do not like to do.  In some cases the fines and court cases are far less than the cost of the cost of powering and maintaining the scrubbers.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2590 on: December 25, 2018, 04:33:59 am »
Not just that but emission limits depend on the age of the power plant. I never dug really deep into the emission limits of the power plants but it wouldn't surprise me when these are less strict compared to the latest euro6 limits for cars. One thing is for sure: a power plant lasts whole lot longer than a car so new emission limits for power plants take a lot longer to have any effect.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline fsr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2591 on: December 25, 2018, 04:54:16 am »
Still, burning fossil fuels to generate electricity is a very bad idea. Hardly an argument against the electric car, and more about human stupidity.
With any luck, things like the Paris Agreement can begin to make a change. Let's hope it's not too late. The US withdrawal didn't make any favors to it, but i hope that a future president reconsiders. Fortunately, the US cannot actually withdrawn until 2020.
It seems like some people need to wait until seawater enters the White House before realizing how much we are in deep shit. I mean, how many hurricanes need to hit concurrently at the same area to realize how serious the situation is?
Lots of space to install eolic and solar generators. What's keeping that from happening?
 
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2592 on: December 25, 2018, 08:53:06 am »
Not just that but emission limits depend on the age of the power plant. I never dug really deep into the emission limits of the power plants but it wouldn't surprise me when these are less strict compared to the latest euro6 limits for cars. One thing is for sure: a power plant lasts whole lot longer than a car so new emission limits for power plants take a lot longer to have any effect.

The TVA in the US is notoruois for running their power plants with the scrubbers turned off or prolonged delays in install scrubbers.  Correct me if I am wrong but the scrubbers do not remove heavy elements such as mercury, lead and the radioactive elements.  When coal and natural gas is burned every year millions ot tons of radioactive isotopes are released into the atomosphere for us to breath in.  Then there's the mercury which is now in our oceans.  Man has burned so much fossil fuel the we are limited to how much fish we can eat.

 
 
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Offline ahbushnell

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2593 on: December 25, 2018, 09:01:05 am »
Not just that but emission limits depend on the age of the power plant. I never dug really deep into the emission limits of the power plants but it wouldn't surprise me when these are less strict compared to the latest euro6 limits for cars. One thing is for sure: a power plant lasts whole lot longer than a car so new emission limits for power plants take a lot longer to have any effect.

The TVA in the US is notoruois for running their power plants with the scrubbers turned off or prolonged delays in install scrubbers.  Correct me if I am wrong but the scrubbers do not remove heavy elements such as mercury, lead and the radioactive elements.  When coal and natural gas is burned every year millions ot tons of radioactive isotopes are released into the atomosphere for us to breath in.  Then there's the mercury which is now in our oceans.  Man has burned so much fossil fuel the we are limited to how much fish we can eat.
Scrubbers have nothing to do with CO2 emissions.  They remove particulates and also NOX and SOX. 
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2594 on: December 25, 2018, 09:52:14 am »
Not just that but emission limits depend on the age of the power plant. I never dug really deep into the emission limits of the power plants but it wouldn't surprise me when these are less strict compared to the latest euro6 limits for cars. One thing is for sure: a power plant lasts whole lot longer than a car so new emission limits for power plants take a lot longer to have any effect.

The TVA in the US is notoruois for running their power plants with the scrubbers turned off or prolonged delays in install scrubbers.  Correct me if I am wrong but the scrubbers do not remove heavy elements such as mercury, lead and the radioactive elements.  When coal and natural gas is burned every year millions ot tons of radioactive isotopes are released into the atomosphere for us to breath in.  Then there's the mercury which is now in our oceans.  Man has burned so much fossil fuel the we are limited to how much fish we can eat.
Scrubbers have nothing to do with CO2 emissions.  They remove particulates and also NOX and SOX.

And what about mercury and radioactive isotopes?
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2595 on: December 25, 2018, 10:22:29 am »
Radioactive isotopes also tend to end up in what the scrubbers remove from the exhaust gasses. One of the end products is plaster.
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Offline ahbushnell

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2596 on: December 25, 2018, 10:56:42 am »
Not just that but emission limits depend on the age of the power plant. I never dug really deep into the emission limits of the power plants but it wouldn't surprise me when these are less strict compared to the latest euro6 limits for cars. One thing is for sure: a power plant lasts whole lot longer than a car so new emission limits for power plants take a lot longer to have any effect.

The TVA in the US is notoruois for running their power plants with the scrubbers turned off or prolonged delays in install scrubbers.  Correct me if I am wrong but the scrubbers do not remove heavy elements such as mercury, lead and the radioactive elements.  When coal and natural gas is burned every year millions ot tons of radioactive isotopes are released into the atomosphere for us to breath in.  Then there's the mercury which is now in our oceans.  Man has burned so much fossil fuel the we are limited to how much fish we can eat.
Scrubbers have nothing to do with CO2 emissions.  They remove particulates and also NOX and SOX.

And what about mercury and radioactive isotopes?
Got me.
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2597 on: December 25, 2018, 11:45:57 am »
I just got back from a 2200 mi (3500 km Round trip) visit to relatives that provides some insight into the position of EVs in the market in the Western US.  The trip is one I make multiple times a year and as many have pointed out these long trips often have better alternatives than a car.  But it seldom works that way for me.  In this case, associated with Christmas, there would have been significant costs, concern about delivery schedule and concern about handling for the Christmas gifts involved.  One of the stops is an elderly relative where I do the maintenance that she no longer can do, nor can she properly vet local tradesmen.  So tool transport is also involved.  Multiple stops hints at why some of the other options are less appealing.  My use case isn't the issue here.

The meat of the observations is as follows.  Of the hundreds of vehicles observed, I only recognized 5 full electric vehicles - all Teslas.  Four were on the interstate between cities.  Not surprisingly, all four were within 200 miles (320 miles) of the San Francisco Bay area.  Clearly they are practical for some long distance trips.  There may have been others, but I would have recognized the common ones like Bolt, Leaf and electric Prius.  But then those shorter range vehicles are much less practical on long trips so I wouldn't expect to have seen them out on the open road.  I also saw one Volt.

Based on the license plates of cars surrounding me a significant percentage were making somewhat similar treks.  In the stretches between cities somewhere between 10 and 20 percent were from at least one state away.  While some of these may have been transplants who had not changed their plates yet, the fully loaded cars, some with roof top carriers and other clues indicate that most were in transit.  In California, where most of the mileage occurred, same state plates don't necessarily indicate a short trip.  The long leg of my trip described next is almost entirely within California.

The longest leg of the trip is just over 600 miles (960 km).  With an ICE vehicle I do it in roughly 12 hours.  One fueling stop if trip is started with full tank, usually do two to get better fuel prices and more leg stretching.  Two meals.  Two or more comfort breaks.  Hypothetically may involve long stretches driving 20% or more faster than posted speed limits to save time for more of those stops.  Also to keep up with average traffic flow.  I'm not sure if the best EVs can come within half an hour of that time or not.  Depends if they can combine their best range with those hypothetical speeds.  Maybe so, maybe not.  But the real kicker at the moment is that this trip was holiday season.  A lot of people on the road.  Lines of varying length at everything.  SWMBO needed Starbucks at the first stop and it took over half an hour.  (Good news for electric if there wasn't a line at the charging station and if the Starbucks is within walking distance, it gives time to charge.).  But with all of that, the longest stop for fuel was under 15 minutes, including the wait in line, and what seemed to be a slow pump.  I timed the delivery rate at 6 gallons per minute, which according to Google is at the low end of what stations try to deliver since their business model demands high sales.  Legal limit in US is 10 gal per minute.  Right now, with so few EVs on the road there probably isn't too much waiting in line for a charger.  But as market penetration grows, you would expect the same market forces that drive gas stations to prevail.  The system will be sized for typical use or a little more, and during high demand periods will get saturated. 

I draw two conclusions from this.  One, in spite of the rather impressive sales and sales growth of electric vehicles, they are still a just barely noticeable presence in the US market.  On par with the exotics, but still something that causes a double take when seen.  Second, while the best EVs will satisfy some of the long range demands of the US driver, they will be challenged to meet the holiday treks common to Americans in the western part of the country. 
 

Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2598 on: December 26, 2018, 03:51:47 am »
It has been proven over and over again that that number isn't true when comparing against efficient ICE cars.
Nope. That's bullshit.
 

Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2599 on: December 26, 2018, 04:15:11 am »
It has been proven over and over again that that number isn't true when comparing against efficient ICE cars.
Nope. That's simply  bullshit.
Just google "well to wheel EV"

in the first results :
https://insideevs.com/evs-are-61-cleaner-than-gas-in-minnesota-well-to-wheels-analysis/
https://insideevs.com/efficiency-compared-battery-electric-73-hydrogen-22-ice-13/

If you need it in a real study look at slide 37:
http://www.jari.or.jp/portals/0/jhfc/e/data/seminar/fy2005/pdf/06_h17seminar_e.pdf

BEV just bearts everything. Simply. Today.
Can't change the laws of thermodynamic, eh :)

But of course, that's getting much better than this 2.5x, which is calculated for 100% fossil electricity.
This is not the case any more, except in some very few countries.
For CO2 in today's world, as the PV and other renewables slowly ramp up, the CO2 emissions /km of EVs is getting much better every single day....
« Last Edit: December 26, 2018, 04:22:50 am by f4eru »
 


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