Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 167571 times)

0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline boffin

  • Supporter
  • ****
  • Posts: 898
  • Country: ca
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2650 on: December 28, 2018, 09:31:40 pm »
Also, the increase in energy consumption running the AC is identical EV or ICE, so in the context of the EV vs ICE argument, AC is a non-issue at all.


6.4 kW is ~ 1/3 of the power needed to move the car, I wouldn't call it a non-issue, EVs (unlike ICEs) have an already poor range and this makes it even worse.

As I keep pointing out, you are using absolutely worst case scenario numbers (again), and not real world number; nor are you considering the equivalent performance of an ICE car.

Maybe 6.4kW for the 1st sixty seconds to initially defrost (which is fast as it's electric), but once you come off max/max/max it drops down.
And remember, in an ICE car you'd be sitting waiting for the engine to warm so the defroster would work; wasting fuel.

However, in the real "I'm in the car driving somewhere" world the number is 1.6kW, pretty insignificant compared to a 18kW/100km.  I just went out for lunch and when I reached my destination (only 2km away), with the outside temp of 3½°C, I stopped and looked at what the consumption with
  • engine systems turned on
  • headlights turned on
  • auto climate control to a toasty 24C
  • the seat heater on 2/3 (which is really too high in my car, and 3/3 you could fry eggs)
  • the rear defroster on
and the car was using 1.6kW

With the benefit that the heater worked the whole way, not just for  the last 500m after it had warmed up.

« Last Edit: December 28, 2018, 09:40:13 pm by boffin »
 

Offline apis

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1668
  • Country: se
  • Hobbyist
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2651 on: December 28, 2018, 09:45:11 pm »
See attached info-graphic about the impact of cold weather (from 2014-01-16).
Source is this pro-EV site https://www.fleetcarma.com/cold-weather-fuel-efficiency/
I've also read that some BEVs keep the heater on in the battery compartment even when the car is parked (in cold weather), which means it will slowly drains the battery if you leave it unplugged. I think EVs are great in general but they do have a range problem and that gets worse in cold weather.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 17966
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2652 on: December 28, 2018, 10:16:39 pm »
How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline boffin

  • Supporter
  • ****
  • Posts: 898
  • Country: ca
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2653 on: December 28, 2018, 10:17:52 pm »
See attached info-graphic about the impact of cold weather (from 2014-01-16).
Source is this pro-EV site https://www.fleetcarma.com/cold-weather-fuel-efficiency/
I've also read that some BEVs keep the heater on in the battery compartment even when the car is parked (in cold weather), which means it will slowly drains the battery if you leave it unplugged. I think EVs are great in general but they do have a range problem and that gets worse in cold weather.

Thanks for the reference.  As shown, it demonstrates the less than 10% penalty (vs ICE).  I'm sure the ICE guys will take your graphic and say "see - 29% worse" not considering their ICE dropped 19% as well (and will likely complain they never saw that much drop off)

I've seen my winter (and it has been only down to about 3-4C here of late, so not as cold as those numbers) range drop from 220k down to about 195k.

As for the draining battery that some people report, could also be the fact that most EVs can be programmed to pre-condition the cabin prior to departure (so every morning my car is already warm when I get into it).  If I forget to turn that off, that's a couple of kWh/day that disappears.
 

Online dr.diesel

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2147
  • Country: us
  • Cramming the magic smoke back in...
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2654 on: December 28, 2018, 10:33:51 pm »
How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.

I have always noticed a mileage difference in the winter, even for long trips.  A couple reasons come to mind:

 - Diesel gets mixed with kerosene to prevent gelling here in the US, making it less energy dense.  (perhaps not in the western/southern states, but all the cold areas this is done at all fill-up stations)
 - Much higher viscosity of the diesel oil, 15w-40 engine oil, 85w-90 gear old in front rear diff etc
 - Cold tires

Cars probably don't notice quite as much, but trucks for-sure do, however, not 19% either.

On a separate note, and subject to personal opinion, but Larry Ellison joining Tesla can't do anything but hurt progress of adoption.  (Having personal experience with Oracle for years)   :horse:

Offline apis

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1668
  • Country: se
  • Hobbyist
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2655 on: December 28, 2018, 10:43:22 pm »
How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.
One factor is that cold air is denser so the air resistance increases, you might have worse road conditions (especially with snow) and lower tire pressure, and electric powered heaters like seat heaters and such also affect an ICE. They also mention some factors at the bottom of the graphic that indicate major factors are cold start and excessive idling/warmup. I'm not sure but got the impression they have data-loggers installed in several cars that they then use to make statistics from. They appear to be very pro-EV though, would be nice with a better source but this was all I could find that had more than anecdotes.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2018, 10:50:12 pm by apis »
 

Offline coppice

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 4742
  • Country: gb
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2656 on: December 28, 2018, 11:12:59 pm »
How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.
Some years ago I used to measure my gas consumption every time I filled the tank, and never noticed any variation between summer and winter. I used to find this odd, actually. I didn't do many short journeys, but I still expected some hit from the longer warming up periods in winter. They were actually too small to show up in the measurements.
 

Offline fsr

  • Regular Contributor
  • *
  • Posts: 168
  • Country: ar
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2657 on: December 28, 2018, 11:18:28 pm »
I found some data on Tesla model S heaters and HVAC power requirements: https://www.teslarati.com/energy-saving-tips-tesla-subzero-weather-using-seat-heaters/

Some interesting parts (the article is longer):

At one point, Kman turns on the heater to ‘HI’ (82F) – commonly used by owners when first entering a frigid car – and measures a staggering 16.8A, 6.4kW of power consumed, or 18+ miles of range lost per hour. Though running the heater at HI for an hour is an unlikely scenario, especially considering the fact that the cabin temperature quickly reached 108 degrees Fahrenheit (42C) within a short amount of time, Kman brings to light that quickly warming up a vehicle using the heater could have significant and detrimental effects on range.


Tesla Subzero Weather Package + HVAC Energy Consumption

Energy consumption has been broken down by feature. Total energy consumption can be added together based on the number of features that are enabled.

Assuming a consumption of 333Wh/mile, we can compute the approximate range loss at miles per hour (mph) as a result of having these heating features on.

    Baseline (vehicle at rest but powered up): 247 Wh = .74 mph
    Defroster (rear window & side mirror heaters): 285 Wh = .86 mph
    Steering Wheel Heater: 95 Wh = .29 mph
    Heated Wipers & Nozzles: 95Wh = .29 mph
    1 Seat Heater: 57 Wh = .17 mph
    2 Seat Heaters: 133 Wh = .40 mph
    3 Seat Heaters: 171 Wh = .51 mph
    4 Seat Heaters: 209 Wh = .63 mph
    5 Seat Heaters: 247 Wh = .74 mph
    HVAC at ‘HI’ or 82F (28C): 6.4 kWh = ~18-20 mph
    HVAC at 74F (23C): 342 Wh = 1.03 mph

---------------

Does that mean that the HVAC system uses 6.4 kW to get a 28 degree C difference, but only 342 W to get a 23 degree C difference? Isn't that like too much of a difference?

Also, 6.4 kW seems like a lot to me, considering that one room air conditioner here (with a quite decent size) has a maximum power requirement of 3.2 kW. But i don't know anything about car HVAC systems, maybe they need to be that large for some reason?
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 17966
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2658 on: December 28, 2018, 11:19:48 pm »
How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.
One factor is that cold air is denser so the air resistance increases, you might have worse road conditions (especially with snow) and lower tire pressure, and electric powered heaters like seat heaters and such also affect an ICE. They also mention some factors at the bottom of the graphic that indicate major factors are cold start and excessive idling/warmup.
There is the red herring! It seems the testers let the cars run idle for a long time and then drove a very short distance. Stupid pro-EV websites  :palm: Do they really think we're all idiots?

When I commuted a lot with my cars I never found a large variation due to season changes. The variation was around 2% when driving the same route and filling up at the same gas station for thousands of kilometers. What did impact fuel consumption measurably where switching to a higher quality fuel and having eco-tuning on the engine.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2018, 12:05:09 am by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline apis

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1668
  • Country: se
  • Hobbyist
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2659 on: December 28, 2018, 11:54:56 pm »
How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.
One factor is that cold air is denser so the air resistance increases, you might have worse road conditions (especially with snow) and lower tire pressure, and electric powered heaters like seat heaters and such also affect an ICE. They also mention some factors at the bottom of the graphic that indicate major factors are cold start and excessive idling/warmup.
There is the red herring! It seems the testers let the cars run idle for a long time and then drove a very short distance. Stupid pro-EV websites  :palm: Do they really think we're all idiots?

When I commuted a lot with my cars I never found a large variation. The variation was around 2% when driving the same route and filling up at the same gas station for thousands of kilometers. What did impact fuel consumption measurably where switching to a higher quality fuel and having eco-tuning on the engine.
I don't think they have testers but rather install data loggers in a lot of cars which if done properly could give them decent 'in situ' data. If "real people" do not use engine heaters and let their cars idle to stay warm then it makes sense to include that in the statistics.
 

Offline boffin

  • Supporter
  • ****
  • Posts: 898
  • Country: ca
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2660 on: December 29, 2018, 06:49:47 am »
How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.
One factor is that cold air is denser so the air resistance increases, you might have worse road conditions (especially with snow) and lower tire pressure, and electric powered heaters like seat heaters and such also affect an ICE. They also mention some factors at the bottom of the graphic that indicate major factors are cold start and excessive idling/warmup.
There is the red herring! It seems the testers let the cars run idle for a long time and then drove a very short distance. Stupid pro-EV websites  :palm: Do they really think we're all idiots?

When I commuted a lot with my cars I never found a large variation due to season changes. The variation was around 2% when driving the same route and filling up at the same gas station for thousands of kilometers. What did impact fuel consumption measurably where switching to a higher quality fuel and having eco-tuning on the engine.

Cold weather means higher fuel consumption
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that a drop in temperature from 24°C to 7°C can increase fuel consumption in urban commutes by 12 to 28%.
ref: https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21032

 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 17966
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2661 on: December 29, 2018, 10:48:55 am »
Twisting numbers again: it says 'urban commutes' which I translate into letting it idle for 10 minutes and drive a few km. The solution is simple: clear the windows of water or ice and start driving immediately. If I do that the heater of my car starts to get warm after 200 meters of driving.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1157
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2662 on: December 29, 2018, 11:33:50 am »
No one seems to be mentioning the formulation of gas or energy density of gas changes between summer and winter.  Gas prices are always lower in the winter when when gs contains less energy.   

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) says conventional summer-blend gasoline contains 1.7 percent more energy than winter-blend gas, which is one reason why gas mileage is slightly better in the summer. However, the summer-blend is also more expensive to produce, and that cost is passed on to the motorist.

Same is true for electricity.  I am a PG&E customer and our winter electrity traates aare lower in the winter and higher in the summer.  If can mislead you in saying on average the electrity rates are $0.07 less expensive in the winter.  Reason I say this is misleading is because there are many different ways to calculate average prices for electricity.  In reality the cost of electrity when charging the car only changes for off peak hours is on the order of a hundredth of a cent.  It’s the peak and off peak hours whcih change the most causing this atinomy.
 

Online GeorgeOfTheJungle

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2085
  • Country: pl
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2663 on: December 30, 2018, 09:27:43 am »
Also, the increase in energy consumption running the AC is identical EV or ICE, so in the context of the EV vs ICE argument, AC is a non-issue at all.
6.4 kW is ~ 1/3 of the power needed to move the car, I wouldn't call it a non-issue, EVs (unlike ICEs) have an already poor range and this makes it even worse.
As I keep pointing out, you are using absolutely worst case scenario numbers (again), and not real world number; nor are you considering the equivalent performance of an ICE car.

Boffin, you know very well that the heat for the cabin heater of an ICE comes from the water of the radiator, it's heat that's dumped into the cabin that would otherwise be dumped outside, and therefore means exactly zero additional kilowatts, so why you keep trying to prove otherwise is beyond me. Please stop behaving like the typical EV fanboy, you can do better I'm sure.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2018, 12:56:54 pm by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
git diff *
 
The following users thanked this post: nctnico

Online GeorgeOfTheJungle

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2085
  • Country: pl
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2664 on: December 30, 2018, 09:44:50 am »
Let's do the math. If the efficiency of an ICE were ~ 45%, and to move a car on average you need say 18 kWh/100km, it means an ICE dumps as heat 0.55*18/0.45 = 22 kWh/100km, even 1/3 of that is plenty enough to heat the cabin.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2018, 09:47:50 am by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
git diff *
 

Offline fsr

  • Regular Contributor
  • *
  • Posts: 168
  • Country: ar
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2665 on: December 30, 2018, 01:44:02 pm »
Let's do the math. If the efficiency of an ICE were ~ 45%, and to move a car on average you need say 18 kWh/100km, it means an ICE dumps as heat 0.55*18/0.45 = 22 kWh/100km, even 1/3 of that is plenty enough to heat the cabin.
That's a little bit optimistic, considering that the fact that Toyota announced 40% efficiency for a new gasoline engine was big news (and that's the manufacturer claimed efficiency).
More like 30%, or so, with any luck.
Take a look at this. Quite an analysis they have done on the entire vehicle: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml
 

Offline vk6zgo

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5037
  • Country: au
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2666 on: December 30, 2018, 02:43:58 pm »
Let's do the math. If the efficiency of an ICE were ~ 45%, and to move a car on average you need say 18 kWh/100km, it means an ICE dumps as heat 0.55*18/0.45 = 22 kWh/100km, even 1/3 of that is plenty enough to heat the cabin
That's a little bit optimistic, considering that the fact that Toyota announced 40% efficiency for a new gasoline engine was big news (and that's the manufacturer claimed efficiency).
More like 30%, or so, with any luck.
Take a look at this. Quite an analysis they have done on the entire vehicle: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml

I think the point is that the very inefficiency of the ICE engine means that the wasted energy is available
free, & using it to heat the car interior means that energy doesn't have to be found from the engine's mechanical output.
 

Online GeorgeOfTheJungle

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2085
  • Country: pl
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2667 on: December 30, 2018, 03:21:27 pm »
Let's do the math. If the efficiency of an ICE were ~ 45%, and to move a car on average you need say 18 kWh/100km, it means an ICE dumps as heat 0.55*18/0.45 = 22 kWh/100km, even 1/3 of that is plenty enough to heat the cabin
That's a little bit optimistic, considering that the fact that Toyota announced 40% efficiency for a new gasoline engine was big news (and that's the manufacturer claimed efficiency).
More like 30%, or so, with any luck.
Take a look at this. Quite an analysis they have done on the entire vehicle: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml

I think the point is that the very inefficiency of the ICE engine means that the wasted energy is available
free, & using it to heat the car interior means that energy doesn't have to be found from the engine's mechanical output.

Yes. Exactly. And diesels are notably more efficient than gasoline engines.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_engine
Quote
Low-speed diesel engines (as used in ships and other applications where overall engine weight is relatively unimportant) can have a thermal efficiency that exceeds 50%
git diff *
 

Online Kjelt

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5727
  • Country: nl
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2668 on: December 30, 2018, 05:18:16 pm »
But produce many more toxic side product and more finedust which kills people.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 17966
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2669 on: December 30, 2018, 05:21:16 pm »
But produce many more toxic side product and more finedust which kills people.
That is mainly due to the poor quality fuel being used and lack of emissions regulations.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online Kjelt

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5727
  • Country: nl
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2670 on: December 30, 2018, 05:34:37 pm »
Diesel iafaik per definition a lower quality fuel from the destillation process
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 17966
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2671 on: December 30, 2018, 05:40:34 pm »
Diesel iafaik per definition a lower quality fuel from the destillation process
That is nonsense. Diesel fuel is a different product from distillation because it has a different boiling point. But besides that ships don't run on diesel oil but much heavier oils. AFAIK these types of oil need to be heated before they can be used in a diesel engine. Remember you can make a diesel engine run on almost any kind of oil. So diesel engine doesn't equal diesel fuel.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online Kjelt

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5727
  • Country: nl
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2672 on: December 30, 2018, 06:28:20 pm »
So what causes the extra pollutants if diesel is equally clean as petrol?
Combustion temperature?
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 17966
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2673 on: December 30, 2018, 06:34:12 pm »
So what causes the extra pollutants if diesel is equally clean as petrol?
Combustion temperature?
The biggest problem is that a diesel by definition has excess air in the cylinder which causes NOx to form more easely (combustion temperature also plays a role). A petrol engine has a controlled amount of air in the cylinder. By adjusting the amount of fuel based on the O2 sensor in the exhaust the burning of the fuel can be controlled better. Both diesel and petrol engines use exhaust gas recirculation to reduce the combustion temperature.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2018, 06:35:43 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline glarsson

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 807
  • Country: se
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2674 on: December 30, 2018, 06:35:01 pm »
So what causes the extra pollutants if diesel is equally clean as petrol?
Combustion temperature?
Higher combination temperature increases efficiency and production of NOx. You had to choose efficiency (lower CO2) or lower NOX until Volkswagen found the final solution.
 


Share me

Digg  Facebook  SlashDot  Delicious  Technorati  Twitter  Google  Yahoo
Smf