When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[nctnico]

An electric vehicle with clean energy sources will have very low lifecycle CO2 emissions. An ICE car can't do that.

Wrong again. ICE cars can run fine on bio-fuel. FYI: in many western countries there is 5% (or more) bio fuel added to the fuel which is used. Bio-fuel is way ahead of EVs when it comes to CO2 reduction for transportation. And 3rd generation bio-fuel uses that parts of the plants we don't eat so don't go saying bio-fuel takes away food.

Brazil (where 50% of the fuel used is bio-fuel) is a good example why bio-fuel makes more sense than EVs. EVs are an expensive solution only few are willing to pay for -if they can-. Bio-fuel OTOH allows a gradual changeover and it doesn't cost extra. Any modern petrol engine can run on pure ethanol. Some of the flexi-fuel models can do this from the factory others will need a software update (or a device which alters the fuel injection timing).

[DougSpindler]

An electric vehicle with clean energy sources will have very low lifecycle CO2 emissions. An ICE car can't do that.

Wrong again. ICE cars can run fine on bio-fuel. FYI: in many western countries there is 5% (or more) bio fuel added to the fuel which is used. Bio-fuel is way ahead of EVs when it comes to CO2 reduction for transportation. And 3rd generation bio-fuel uses that parts of the plants we don't eat so don't go saying bio-fuel takes away food.

Brazil (where 50% of the fuel used is bio-fuel) is a good example why bio-fuel makes more sense than EVs. EVs are an expensive solution only few are willing to pay for -if they can-. Bio-fuel OTOH allows a gradual changeover and it doesn't cost extra. Any modern petrol engine can run on pure ethanol. Some of the flexi-fuel models can do this from the factory others will need a software update (or a device which alters the fuel injection timing).

You are right aboustly right Brazil is an excellent example of how bio-fuels make sense.  And you are wrong aboutt EVs not make a lot of sense.  If Brazil’s bib-fuel program which has been around for 40 years is so wonderful now would expect it to be replicated in Europe, Russia, China, India, Australia, United States or at least one other country somewhere in the world.

Any idea why that has not been done?

Well I think you will find the first reason it will never work in Europe, Russia and the US is the cane doesn’t grow well there.  The second reason is even if the cane or some other croup could be grown for bio-fuels there isn’t enough land to grow the amount of bio-mass needed for the number of cars.  Have you done or even looked at the calculations for tha amount of land per gallon of bio-fuel?  Isn’t is something like 2 acres of land of bio-mass is needed per mile driven?  All of the land in California, Oregon, Washington, Airizona, and Nevada would be needed just to grow the bio-mass needed to power the cars in California.  Now the question becomes where are the people going to live?  And you’ll have another problem, where is the food people eat going to come from.  California feeds a large portion of the US with the food we grow here.

Maybe ther’s a ereason it works in Brazil and won’t work elsewhere.  Instead of thinking locally, think globally.   

[nctnico]

Your questions are valid and here is the answer: Brazil has enough land to grow sugar cane without affecting the food supply for the people. In more densily populated areas more clever techniques are required and that is where the third generation bio-fuels come into play. 3rd generation bio-fuels are made from the parts of the plants which aren't food but just waste. The big advantage of 3rd generation bio-fuels is that they make food cheaper and don't need land specifically for creating bio-fuel. Based on the data at Poet-DSM's website I ran some numbers and you can get to near 100% fuel replacement when using efficient cars (say 100grams/CO2 per km) and just the agricultural leftovers.

[Kjelt]

And you are wrong about EVs not make a lot of sense. 
...........
All of the land in California, Oregon, Washington, Airizona, and Nevada would be needed just to grow the bio-mass needed to power the cars in California.

Just curious how many nuclear plants are the US now building so everyone can drive an EV in two decades?
Last I heard your country already has a lack of electricity in the summer when everyone uses their AC?
How can you advocate EVs when there is nothing done to support it ?

[DougSpindler]

Your questions are valid and here is the answer: Brazil has enough land to grow sugar cane without affecting the food supply for the people. In more densily populated areas more clever techniques are required and that is where the third generation bio-fuels come into play. 3rd generation bio-fuels are made from the parts of the plants which aren't food but just waste. The big advantage of 3rd generation bio-fuels is that they make food cheaper and don't need land specifically for creating bio-fuel. Based on the data at Poet-DSM's website I ran some numbers and you can get to near 100% fuel replacement when using efficient cars (say 100grams/CO2 per km) and just the agricultural leftovers.

Okay, so what I am missing.  The US Produces the most bio-fuel in the world, followed by China and Brazil.  So if here in the US we produce the most what do we do with it?  (And we don’t use sugar cane either as there are only a few states which have the climate and sioil for it.)  So what do we use it for?  And with China iproducing the second most what are they doing with it?  Brazil is in third, place, we know what they are doing with it.

One reason it’s not so popular is that it’s more costly than fossil fuels.  Another reason is the fule needs to be hydrogenated to remove the oxoygen.  Where do we get hydrogen?  Fossil fuels.

The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.

As I said previously it might work for Brazil, but its not a solution for the US, China, Europe, Russia and just about everywhere else in the world.  For other parts of the wold EVs are the most promising.

But ultimately isn’t the best source of energy for us going to be Next Gen Nuclear?  It’s been powering the sun and out universe for billions of years.  It is a proven technology and it’s renewable.

[DougSpindler]

And you are wrong about EVs not make a lot of sense. 
...........
All of the land in California, Oregon, Washington, Airizona, and Nevada would be needed just to grow the bio-mass needed to power the cars in California.

Just curious how many nuclear plants are the US now building so everyone can drive an EV in two decades?
Last I heard your country already has a lack of electricity in the summer when everyone uses their AC?
How can you advocate EVs when there is nothing done to support it ?

You are correct we are having power outages in the summer.  But it’s not only when folks have there AC on, but when renewables aren’t producing.  As when there is no wind or a cloud is over a solar farm.  Same issue England and Germany have had.  The only time we have prolonged power outages is when we have wild fires.

You are right we don’t have this figured out.  Just like everywhere else in the world this is an experiment that’s taking place as we speak.  In 5 or 10 years from now we will know what worked and what didn’t.

I live in California and own and drive an EV.  Only time I’ve had an issue is when I forgot to plug it in at night.  We havre the highest electricity rates in the US if not most of the world.  We are on a Time of Use billing.  So to recharge the batteries in my car it costs at the highest electrial rate a bit more than I would pay for a tankfull of gas.  But if I charge at the off-rate it’s about one forth the cost of a tankfull.

I’ve had an EV for almost two years and can’t complain.  Biggest plus is I don’t have to go to the dealership to get an oil change and try and be sold a bunch or just or services I don’t need.  Saves a lot of money.

My next car will be an EV as well.

This next year I plan on installing solar panels.  Not to charge my car during the day, that would be stupid.  Instead I can sell that electricity to the power company at $0.50 during the day, and then buy it back when the rates are low, $0.11 to charge my car.

The solar rip-pff companies are all telling me I need 30 solar panels to produce the number of kWhrs I use per year.  But what these idiots are not factoring in is the exchange rate between peak and off-peak which is about 4 to 1.  So instead of needed 30 panels I could easily get by with 15 if not 8 or 9 panels.

While I see the value of solar panels as a short term fix, in the US the solar panel design and installation industry is for the most part a compete scam.  They are grossly over selling the number of panels needed and this includes Elon Musk and Tesla. 

What we really need is to get next gen nuclear figured out.     

 

 

[nctnico]

The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.

Is reading so hard? Really?? Read carefully what I wrote about 3rd generation bio-fuels! Again: no extra farm land is needed to make bio-fuel!

[fsr]

Well, biofuels are way easy to adopt than BEVs as they're basically the same gasoline cars with a modified engine, and also can use the same network of filling stations. If 3rd+ generation biofuels were adopted worldwide, that looks like good news, but i don't see anyone rushing to it.
Still, from a pollution and energy use standpoint, BEVs look like the perfect city vehicle to me. But not really for long distances, at least without a distributed network of charging stations.
And to me, Green energy production is a must, either with BEVs or without them.
About nuclear energy, fission has some serious issues. The Sun uses fusion, however. That would do it, but sadly, is only in research, and seems to be a long way from commercial use.

[DougSpindler]

The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.

Is reading so hard? Really?? Read carefully what I wrote about 3rd generation bio-fuels! Again: no extra farm land is needed to make bio-fuel!

But we.’ve run into issues we haven’t been able to solve with 3rd gen bio fuels.  While at one time they looked promising they aren’t at this time.  You have not addressed the issue of the amount of land needed for biofuels.  Where are we to grow food and live if all of the land is used to propduce bio-fuels?

[DougSpindler]

Well, biofuels are way easy to adopt than BEVs as they're basically the same gasoline cars with a modified engine, and also can use the same network of filling stations. If 3rd+ generation biofuels were adopted worldwide, that looks like good news, but i don't see anyone rushing to it.
Still, from a pollution and energy use standpoint, BEVs look like the perfect city vehicle to me. But not really for long distances, at least without a distributed network of charging stations.
And to me, Green energy production is a must, either with BEVs or without them.
About nuclear energy, fission has some serious issues. The Sun uses fusion, however. That would do it, but sadly, is only in research, and seems to be a long way from commercial use.

It is years if not decases off before fusion will be ready for commercial use.  But isn’t that really the solution we are after?  There are over 100 private and government funded researchers working on fusion.  Unlike Thorium, we have not run into any issues which would prevent us from being successful. 

But in the mean time we need to find a temporary solution.  Wind, solar, biofuels, are all short term fixes but will not sustain us.

[Kjelt]

This next year I plan on installing solar panels.  Not to charge my car during the day, that would be stupid.  Instead I can sell that electricity to the power company at $0.50 during the day, and then buy it back when the rates are low, $0.11 to charge my car.

Smart as long as it lasts. We had the same here but the end of payback is in sight. The problem is that the energy distributors can not handle the oscillations on their net, if the sun shines full they have an overload and have to switch off or power down the generators, but if their are clouds ten minutes later they have to switch on.
What they need is large batteryfarms to buffer this which is incredible expensive.

Then here in the winter the return of solar is only about ten % of the summer time, California is probably way better

While I see the value of solar panels as a short term fix, in the US the solar panel design and installation industry is for the most part a compete scam.  They are grossly over selling the number of panels needed and this includes Elon Musk and Tesla. 
What we really need is to get next gen nuclear figured out.   

Agree fully.

[nctnico]

Well, biofuels are way easy to adopt than BEVs as they're basically the same gasoline cars with a modified engine, and also can use the same network of filling stations. If 3rd+ generation biofuels were adopted worldwide, that looks like good news, but i don't see anyone rushing to it.

Bio-fuels just aren't sexy like an EV but the world's largest and leading chemical companies have large investments in 3rd generation bio-fuels. Actually 3rd generation bio-fuels aren't new and the first experiments date back to WW2. Getting the process to work efficiently on a large scale and getting the logistics in place to collect the material from the farmers are the main challenges. The first factories are already running. The EU is also starting to ban bio-fuels which need too much land to grow specific plants (like palm oil). Anyway, bio-fuel use is increasing every year without most people even knowing about it.

Another advantage of ethanol (bio-fuel replacement for gas/petrol) is that it burns cleaner so if you are worried about emissions then bio-fuel is also the answer.

[nctnico]

The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.

Is reading so hard? Really?? Read carefully what I wrote about 3rd generation bio-fuels! Again: no extra farm land is needed to make bio-fuel!

But we.’ve run into issues we haven’t been able to solve with 3rd gen bio fuels.  While at one time they looked promising they aren’t at this time.  You have not addressed the issue of the amount of land needed for biofuels.  Where are we to grow food and live if all of the land is used to propduce bio-fuels?

The plants for 3rd generation bio-fuels are up & running. No more problems to be solved. Just fine tuning and getting the cash to build more plants. Again: no extra land needed to make 3rd generation bio-fuels. Erase the thought of bio-fuels needing extra land out of your head. That is history.

[DougSpindler]

This next year I plan on installing solar panels.  Not to charge my car during the day, that would be stupid.  Instead I can sell that electricity to the power company at $0.50 during the day, and then buy it back when the rates are low, $0.11 to charge my car.

Smart as long as it lasts. We had the same here but the end of payback is in sight. The problem is that the energy distributors can not handle the oscillations on their net, if the sun shines full they have an overload and have to switch off or power down the generators, but if their are clouds ten minutes later they have to switch on.
What they need is large batteryfarms to buffer this which is incredible expensive.

Then here in the winter the return of solar is only about ten % of the summer time, California is probably way better

While I see the value of solar panels as a short term fix, in the US the solar panel design and installation industry is for the most part a compete scam.  They are grossly over selling the number of panels needed and this includes Elon Musk and Tesla. 
What we really need is to get next gen nuclear figured out.   

Agree fully.

How is Germany pulling off solar?

What makes solar appealing for us is Time of Use exchange rate with the power company.  Everyday we can sell electricity to the power company at and make a 200% to 400% return.  This is expected to go up to 500% next year.  Don't you wish you could find other investments which pay 500% everyday?




 

[DougSpindler]

The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.

Is reading so hard? Really?? Read carefully what I wrote about 3rd generation bio-fuels! Again: no extra farm land is needed to make bio-fuel!

But we.’ve run into issues we haven’t been able to solve with 3rd gen bio fuels.  While at one time they looked promising they aren’t at this time.  You have not addressed the issue of the amount of land needed for biofuels.  Where are we to grow food and live if all of the land is used to propduce bio-fuels?

The plants for 3rd generation bio-fuels are up & running. No more problems to be solved. Just fine tuning and getting the cash to build more plants. Again: no extra land needed to make 3rd generation bio-fuels. Erase the thought of bio-fuels needing extra land out of your head. That is history.

Guess what you are saying is the experiment with 3rd generation bio-fuels is only been a mediocre success.  Here in the US we are the number one producers and it's not at our pumps even though we have the vehicle which can use it.   From what I have read China being the number 2 producer and they have not had much success either.  Brazil which is the number 3 in production is the only country which has had success. 

Where you live, can you buy biofuels?

Where I live I only know of one biofuel station and I've never seen anyone filling up at it.


So why is it Brazil is the only place 3rd generation biofuels are working? 

[nctnico]

You keep mixing things up! Perhaps we should continue tomorrow when everyone is sober again.

[Vinyasi]

snip...

And unlike Tesla’s 1931 Pierce Arrow which he claimed ran on energy from the universe.  One of these EV conversations companies is demonstrating it is possible to power cars from Energy from the universe.

snip...

EV's will become mainstream at about the same time that levitating EV's will become commonplace since the technology of a pulsed, surge-oriented, shorted motor supplies the same quantity of energy as is required by a UFO, namely: any amount you like! Levitating needs excessive amounts of energy dumped into a paramagnetic hull with absolutely no iron in it at all to neutralize the weaker paramagnetism of aluminum.

[apis]

The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.

Is reading so hard? Really?? Read carefully what I wrote about 3rd generation bio-fuels! Again: no extra farm land is needed to make bio-fuel!

But we.’ve run into issues we haven’t been able to solve with 3rd gen bio fuels.  While at one time they looked promising they aren’t at this time.  You have not addressed the issue of the amount of land needed for biofuels.  Where are we to grow food and live if all of the land is used to propduce bio-fuels?

The plants for 3rd generation bio-fuels are up & running. No more problems to be solved. Just fine tuning and getting the cash to build more plants. Again: no extra land needed to make 3rd generation bio-fuels. Erase the thought of bio-fuels needing extra land out of your head. That is history.

Not sure what you are referring to when you say 3rd gen bio fuels, but from what I know there are very serious downsides to some types of bio fuels (palm oil based for example), while others are better (like ethanol). Bio fuels have their place if the world is going to stop using fossil fuels, but there is a limit to how much of that we can produce as well.

Of course BEVs shouldn't be charged by coal; coal, gas and oil is the root problem. BEVs powered by fission, solar, hydro and wind is the future. It's all things that exists and works right now. While cars might only be responsible for a smaller part of the emissions (8% GhG?) it's still not insignificant and the world need cars, so BEV technology is necessary. As a bonus, air pollution is a huge health problem that BEVs also helps to solve (bio-fuels doesn't help in that regard).

[nctnico]

The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.

Is reading so hard? Really?? Read carefully what I wrote about 3rd generation bio-fuels! Again: no extra farm land is needed to make bio-fuel!

But we.’ve run into issues we haven’t been able to solve with 3rd gen bio fuels.  While at one time they looked promising they aren’t at this time.  You have not addressed the issue of the amount of land needed for biofuels.  Where are we to grow food and live if all of the land is used to propduce bio-fuels?

The plants for 3rd generation bio-fuels are up & running. No more problems to be solved. Just fine tuning and getting the cash to build more plants. Again: no extra land needed to make 3rd generation bio-fuels. Erase the thought of bio-fuels needing extra land out of your head. That is history.

Not sure what you are referring to when you say 3rd gen bio fuels, but from what I know there are very serious downsides to some types of bio fuels (palm oil based for example), while others are better (like ethanol). Bio fuels have their place if the world is going to stop using fossil fuels, but there is a limit to how much of that we can produce as well.

3rd generation bio-fuels uses leftover plant material we would otherwise let rot on the field. The earlier generation bio-fuels (like ethanol from sugar cane and palm oil) need extra land to grow. The EU is about to ban palm-oil for use as a bio-fuel. This will give companies incentives to produce more 3rd generation bio-fuels. The big advantage of 3rd generation bio-fuels is that we end up using more of the plants we grow for food (and leftovers from plants in general. Think about how many plants we grow from which we only eat the seeds or fruits. This is a major opportunity for farmers to stabilise their income. Also there is a crapload of excess plant material available wherever people grow food.

I have explained this many times before and it amazes me how indoctrinated people are with 'bio-fuels = need more land = bad'.

[coppice]

3rd generation bio-fuels use plant material we would otherwise let rot on the field. The earlier generation bio-fuels (like ethanol from sugar cane and palm oil) need extra land to grow. The EU is about to ban palm-oil for use as a bio-fuel. This will give companies incentives to produce more 3rd generation bio-fuels. The big advantage of 3rd generation bio-fuels is that we end up using more of the plants we grow for food. Think about how many plants we grow from which we only eat the seeds or fruits. I have explained this many times before and it amazes me how indoctrinated people are with 'bio-fuels = need more land = bad'.

So, you use more of the plant, and it isn't available to fertilise the land to contribute to next year's crop. Now you need to use more industrialised fertiliser. Where does that come from? Oil!

It is estimated that about half the nitrogen atoms in your body have been through the Haber process.

[nctnico]

No. You can't leave all the leftovers on the field. A certain amount has to be removed anyway. Fertiliser will be needed anyway so that doesn't change whether you use the leftovers to make fuel from or not. There are no downsides to 3rd generation bio-fuels. Read the information on poet-dsm.com first before making any assumptions.

[apis]

How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).

[nctnico]

How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).

See poet-dsm.com (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty

[DougSpindler]

How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).

See poet-dsm.com (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty

.

Friend we have loooked and yes they are doing it, but they are not saying how successful our profitable it is from them.  Yes other companies are doing the same thing, but they are struggling with it and having issues. 

You also appear to be mixing-up what the Dutch are doing and somehow implying it’s the same thing as what they are doing in Brazil.  At first you were talking about usain sugar cane and now you are talking about the bio-mass leftovers.  You do realize there is an enormous energy difference between the two.  Then by using the bio-mass leftovers you are not creating new soil and disrupting the ecological balance of the microorganisms in the soil.  Something that’s really bad.

Sorry just not seeing the same optimistic results you or any of the companies you are talking about are seeing.  You say you have done the calculations, let’s see your calculations.  I have seen the calculcations others have made and they are no where near as optimistic as yours are.

As Calrl Segan once said, extrodanary claims need require extrodanary evidense.  I’m not saying I don’t beleive you, it’s just you have not provided the extrodanary evidence.

[DougSpindler]

Terrible news from the United States this New Year’s Eve.  Our president is about to relaxe the amount of mercury and other pollutants power plants can release into our environment.  Our president believes it is just too costly for the power companies to implement these evnvironmental controls.  The power companies not the other hand who have implemented these controls plan on turning them off to maximize profits.