Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 217477 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline phil from seattle

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 612
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #275 on: April 12, 2018, 10:53:49 pm »
How many cars can a super charger charge at a given time?  If fourteen cars are all lined up to be charge how long does the person in the fourteenth car have to wait to get a charge?  And super chargers don’t give you a full charge so even when they get a charge their mileage is limited.

Clearly some misunderstanding going on.

Here's how SCs work. Each site has a set of chargers. Depending on the model, a charger can range from 90 KW to 132 KW. Each charger  has a number and can feed 2 cars (lettered A and B).  The second car to hook up get's what ever is left over from the first one.  The actual charge rate for a car depends on the state of the battery. A fully discharged battery gets almost 100% of the available rate and it starts to drop from there with the largest drop coming from about half charged to full. Not sure what the terminal rate is but I thinnk it's less than 10KW. The second car gets the left overs. However, in practice, no one has a fully discharged battery and no one actually charges to 100%.  Typically people charge to the point where they can get to the next SC or their destination. So, even the second car on a charger seldom gets nothing and it's often pretty high. There is quite frequent turn over at SCs. If the occupancy is less than 50%, everyone gets the max charge rate for their battery state. The only time I've seen more than 50% was on a very busy travel day (the evening before thanksgiving, iirc). I've never had to wait for a spot to open up.  And, in the places where people have had to wait (mostly in the Bay Area and Southern CA), Tesla has been very proactive in building out more capacity and new SCs in the general area.

I'm not sure what you mean by "don't give you a full charge".  If you want, you can get a full charge but that last 1/8 takes about 20 minutes because off the drop off (this is to protect the battery).  I've actually done that in one case 3 years ago where I needed a return charge. Though, it's quite unnecessary for the vast number of cases.  In fact, my super charger strategy when traveling is to start with an amount of charge such that when I get to the SC, I have about 10% charge left so it will recharge faster. Typically, I only need about 60% to make it to the next SC or destination though the car will tell you when you have enough.

I think you are operating on the filling station mentality. Full tank, drive until near empty and then fill 'er up again.  This isn't how EV owners do it. Generally, I never charge more than 85% and am fine going with well short of a full charge. Lots of EV owners target even less than that for their daily driving. I only do a full charge when I have a long day of driving ahead. It really is a different way of thinking.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2018, 10:58:50 pm by phil from seattle »
 

Online nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 20151
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #276 on: April 12, 2018, 11:30:35 pm »
I think you are operating on the filling station mentality. Full tank, drive until near empty and then fill 'er up again.  This isn't how EV owners do it. Generally, I never charge more than 85% and am fine going with well short of a full charge. Lots of EV owners target even less than that for their daily driving. I only do a full charge when I have a long day of driving ahead. It really is a different way of thinking.
That is not a different way of thinking. That is making do with a system which takes more time no matter how you try to sugar coat it for yourself. Short charge or long charge it doesn't matter because you still need to charge for the distance you drive. I already hate going to the filling station because it takes time. You only live once so don't waste your time by waiting.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3581
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #277 on: April 13, 2018, 12:12:58 am »
I already hate going to the filling station because it takes time. You only live once so don't waste your time by waiting.

Absolutely!  That's what I love about my Volt. I plug it in at night and I'm full in the morning.  I don't think I appreciated how much I'd love not having to go to the filling station once a week to fill up.   Now I go once every 3-4 months - usually only after I've taken a long road trip. I enjoy this even more than the money I save.
 

Offline james_s

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 13158
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #278 on: April 13, 2018, 12:26:46 am »
That's what all the guys I know with electrics rave about too, it's so convenient, they never have to go anywhere to fill up anymore. They just plug in the car when they get home at night just like they plug in their mobile phone when they go to bed. It's super easy, assuming you're one of the many millions of people who have a living situation where this is possible, if you're not then you aren't the target market so there's no sense going on about it.
 

Offline phil from seattle

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 612
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #279 on: April 13, 2018, 12:46:50 am »
I think you are operating on the filling station mentality. Full tank, drive until near empty and then fill 'er up again.  This isn't how EV owners do it. Generally, I never charge more than 85% and am fine going with well short of a full charge. Lots of EV owners target even less than that for their daily driving. I only do a full charge when I have a long day of driving ahead. It really is a different way of thinking.
That is not a different way of thinking. That is making do with a system which takes more time no matter how you try to sugar coat it for yourself. Short charge or long charge it doesn't matter because you still need to charge for the distance you drive. I already hate going to the filling station because it takes time. You only live once so don't waste your time by waiting.

Maybe you should slow down and smell the roses. I don't find charging time to be a big deal. But if it bugs you, go right ahead and keep putting CO2 and other nasty gasses into the atmosphere. Considering that I "waste" maybe an hour or two a year total on charging time, I think I'll stick to EVs. Though, I have to say, I save a lot of time not going to the gas station. 20 minutes to gas up vs 20 seconds of my time to charge at home overnight, I suspect I actually spend less time than you do.

And before you give the apartment dweller argument, most SC are near shopping areas so charging can be overlapped with shopping.

And, your comments clearly indicate that you don't understand the gas station mentality.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 12:49:52 am by phil from seattle »
 

Online nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 20151
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #280 on: April 13, 2018, 12:59:51 am »
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 01:01:27 am by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline coppice

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 6033
  • Country: gb
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #281 on: April 13, 2018, 01:09:49 am »
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.
Charging is a serious issue for everyone on long journeys, but a daily charge for a daily commute is only a hardship if you lack your own driveway, garage or other space with a charging point. The only reasonable drawback to plugging the car in every night when you get home is the issue of forgetting, and not being able to go to work the next morning.
 

Offline phil from seattle

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 612
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #282 on: April 13, 2018, 01:12:37 am »
I charge about once a week.  10 seconds to plug in at night and 10 seconds to unplug the next morning.  Lose the filling station mind set.
 

Offline DougSpindler

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1718
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #283 on: April 13, 2018, 01:28:18 am »
Out of curiosity, how much area do all the rooftops in Europe take up? How much area for the parking lots?

For kicks look at the pricing of Tesla's wall battery. There is no break even point if you add that to the cost of your solar panel setup.


I'm not so sure you are correct.  You need to facor in the cost of the electricity?  In California where I am located the electricity can cost as much as $0.85 at times and as little as $0.12.  One doesn't even need solar pannels.  If I have a Tesla PowerWall I can chage the PW batteries at $0.12 when rates are low, and then sell the power to our power compnay when they are charging $0.85.

I would think with a 700% diffeence in the cost of buying and selling electricty the PW make a lot of financial sense.






   
 

Offline james_s

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 13158
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #284 on: April 13, 2018, 01:40:58 am »
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.

Most people plug their mobile phone in each night do they not? What is so different about plugging in the car each night too? I know guys who do this, they don't seem to bothered by the extra 5 seconds before they walk into the house. It is actually something every one of them has raved about how convenient it is, they pull into the driveway at night and plug in the car, they never have to go to a gas station. It sounds absolutely great to me, it's only the fact that I absolutely love my classic Volvo that prevents me from getting an electric myself.

What part of "if you're not one of the millions of people who can plug in to charge in their driveway then this doesn't apply to you" do you not understand? I get it, an electric car probably won't work for you, why are you so fixated on this and refusing to see that for millions of people it can and in fact does work very well? It seems almost obsessive that you are insisting it flat out doesn't work and then listing reasons it doesn't work for *you* and acting as though everyone is in your situation when in fact many millions of people are not.
 
The following users thanked this post: DougSpindler

Offline DougSpindler

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1718
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #285 on: April 13, 2018, 01:51:38 am »
How many cars can a super charger charge at a given time?  If fourteen cars are all lined up to be charge how long does the person in the fourteenth car have to wait to get a charge?  And super chargers don’t give you a full charge so even when they get a charge their mileage is limited.

Clearly some misunderstanding going on.

Here's how SCs work. Each site has a set of chargers. Depending on the model, a charger can range from 90 KW to 132 KW. Each charger  has a number and can feed 2 cars (lettered A and B).  The second car to hook up get's what ever is left over from the first one.  The actual charge rate for a car depends on the state of the battery. A fully discharged battery gets almost 100% of the available rate and it starts to drop from there with the largest drop coming from about half charged to full. Not sure what the terminal rate is but I thinnk it's less than 10KW. The second car gets the left overs. However, in practice, no one has a fully discharged battery and no one actually charges to 100%.  Typically people charge to the point where they can get to the next SC or their destination. So, even the second car on a charger seldom gets nothing and it's often pretty high. There is quite frequent turn over at SCs. If the occupancy is less than 50%, everyone gets the max charge rate for their battery state. The only time I've seen more than 50% was on a very busy travel day (the evening before thanksgiving, iirc). I've never had to wait for a spot to open up.  And, in the places where people have had to wait (mostly in the Bay Area and Southern CA), Tesla has been very proactive in building out more capacity and new SCs in the general area.

I'm not sure what you mean by "don't give you a full charge".  If you want, you can get a full charge but that last 1/8 takes about 20 minutes because off the drop off (this is to protect the battery).  I've actually done that in one case 3 years ago where I needed a return charge. Though, it's quite unnecessary for the vast number of cases.  In fact, my super charger strategy when traveling is to start with an amount of charge such that when I get to the SC, I have about 10% charge left so it will recharge faster. Typically, I only need about 60% to make it to the next SC or destination though the car will tell you when you have enough.

I think you are operating on the filling station mentality. Full tank, drive until near empty and then fill 'er up again.  This isn't how EV owners do it. Generally, I never charge more than 85% and am fine going with well short of a full charge. Lots of EV owners target even less than that for their daily driving. I only do a full charge when I have a long day of driving ahead. It really is a different way of thinking.

This is a very intersting converstation, it goes to show you how everyones experiance with a plugin electric car is different.
The drive from LA to SF takes an additional 2 hours in a Tesla.
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/fastest-trip-la-sf

And driving a Tesla to Tahoe once you leave the Sacramento area where are the Super Chargers?  And just how many of them are in Tahoe?
Lake Tahoe South Shore gets first Tesla Superchargers as region prepares for more electric vehicles
https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/local/lake-tahoe-south-shore-gets-first-tesla-supercharger-as-region-prepares-for-more-electric-vehicles/

In the region there are only a handful of public Tesla Superchargers. There is one in Reno with a second in the works, two in Truckee with another on the way, one in Topaz Lake and now one in Stateline. Last year a universal DC Fast Charger was installed in the Heavenly Village Park.

Can you make it from Seattle to Lake Chelan witout having to stop for a charge along the way?  Then one in Chelan are there any SC stations?  How would you make this trip?

I looked at a Tesla and purcashed a Volt instead.  As Teslas are watining in line to get charged.  The trip for us to LA is same as for ICE.  No 2 hour for usto get a charge.















 

Offline DougSpindler

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1718
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #286 on: April 13, 2018, 02:06:07 am »
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.

Most people plug their mobile phone in each night do they not? What is so different about plugging in the car each night too? I know guys who do this, they don't seem to bothered by the extra 5 seconds before they walk into the house. It is actually something every one of them has raved about how convenient it is, they pull into the driveway at night and plug in the car, they never have to go to a gas station. It sounds absolutely great to me, it's only the fact that I absolutely love my classic Volvo that prevents me from getting an electric myself.

What part of "if you're not one of the millions of people who can plug in to charge in their driveway then this doesn't apply to you" do you not understand? I get it, an electric car probably won't work for you, why are you so fixated on this and refusing to see that for millions of people it can and in fact does work very well? It seems almost obsessive that you are insisting it flat out doesn't work and then listing reasons it doesn't work for *you* and acting as though everyone is in your situation when in fact many millions of people are not.

Well said.  Does it even take 5 seconds to plug it in?  Takes me longer to get out of the car.
I was one of those people who wasn't too thrilled when my wife wanted an electric car.  We looked at the Tesla and BMW and quickly realized they weren't for us.  One could get stranded quite easily.  Then we looked at the Volt.  Ugggg, a Chevy.  I was not thrilled.  I remember the days of the cheap fall apart America cars like the Vega.  We purchased one.  Am I eating crow.  Not only has the Chevy Volt turned out (so far) to be a good quality car, the software and apps are well designed.  Hate to admit it, but I would by another.  And as for driving the car electric cars are amazing and a lot of fun to drive compared to ICE.

Once you drive an electric you never want to drive an ICE again.

And if you car abount money it cost about $3.50 to charge the car based on our power compnaies evening rates.  When driving on battery power it costs us about $0.05 per mile.  Based on today's gas prices that's a bit more than half the cost of an ICE per mile.



 



 

Online nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 20151
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #287 on: April 13, 2018, 08:34:21 am »
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.
What part of "if you're not one of the millions of people who can plug in to charge in their driveway then this doesn't apply to you" do you not understand?
What you (and several others) seem to be missing is that an EV isn't a 'solution' which scales well for charging at home. If many more households have an EV which they let charge overnight the electricity grid would get overloaded. For now with EVs in the single digit percentages it doesn't matter much but at some point it will. Ofcourse there will be exceptions like in countries where the rural areas already have heavier electricity connections for heating (Norway is probably an example). My point is: that an EV is suitable for a few today doesn't mean it can work for everyone out of the box.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline coppice

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 6033
  • Country: gb
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #288 on: April 13, 2018, 10:13:49 am »
Quote
If many more households have an EV which they let charge overnight the electricity grid would get overloaded.

I read such a quote several times in this thread, and this is BS.
If we switch to EVs this would add between 10% (UK) and 15% (Germany) to the electricity demand.
For 1 million cars it would add ~0,35% and for 45 million cars ~15% in Germany.
In the same time the overall demand is also rising based on growth of population. There is always the need for more electricity, and EVs are just a part of it.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-switch-to-electric-vehicles-would-add-just-10-per-cent-to-uk-power-demand
Its interesting that you quote an article which explains why it is not BS. Although the average UK electricity consumption may not massively increase, the wiring in the average street was not built for everyone in the street coming home in the early evening, and plugging in an additional 6kW load at around the same time. Either higher rated cables are needed, or a legally enforced system of controlled charging times, to spread the peak load. Bigger cable would be massively expensive. Controlled charging times are probably OK for the average commuter, but could be a serious problem for someone with unusual hours.
 

Offline 2N3055

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3068
  • Country: hr
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #289 on: April 13, 2018, 11:27:31 am »
I read such a quote several times in this thread, and this is BS.
If we switch to EVs this would add between 10% (UK) and 15% (Germany) to the electricity demand.
For 1 million cars it would add ~0,35% and for 45 million cars ~15% in Germany.
In the same time the overall demand is also rising based on growth of population. There is always the need for more electricity, and EVs are just a part of it.

It is not BS, but misunderstanding. Problem is not increased average consumption in kW/h.
Problem is in maximum installed peak power of distribution network.
In Croatia, average household distribution connection is specified for 6 kVA of continuous power. If you need more, no problem, but you have to pay additionally for privilege of being able to pull more peak power on demand. You pay that in addition to all the kW/h you spend.
Rationale behind it is that 10 households time 6 kVA in a street can be served with a small inexpensive 60kVA transformer. If all of them want to charge a car at night , and need 20 kVA of power for 8 hours, you need much larger 200kVA transformer in local substation. And then every larger transformers feeding those small ones has to be upgraded to larger capacity. And on and on.

In Croatia, if every household would have one EV, peak power of national grid would have to be substantially upgraded (80-100 %), although average electricity consumption would go up 20-25%.
All of that is far from show stopper, and would be solved with technologically quite traditional upgrade...

But that has to be said, and it is something that has to be done before EV can be mainstream.....
 

Offline 2N3055

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3068
  • Country: hr
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #290 on: April 13, 2018, 01:00:57 pm »
Your number is to high, we charge our car with 3.6kW (4.5 kVA). Usually every third night. Usually for 3-4 hours.

That is in ballpark of  60-100 km per day ?

As I said before, it is not impossible. Quite the opposite, it is entirely technically practical. But needs to be  done before calling something mainstream.

Also, I live in a city. I park on the street with hundreds of other cars. Infrastructure has to be built. Very expensive infrastructure..

Mainstreaming EV's is not a technical problem but a logistic one. It is a major multilevel project nobody wants to own. 

Regards,
Sinisa
 

Online Fungus

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 11478
  • Country: 00
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #291 on: April 13, 2018, 01:16:24 pm »
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 01:24:18 pm by Fungus »
 

Online Fungus

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 11478
  • Country: 00
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #292 on: April 13, 2018, 02:11:06 pm »
Maybe they could make drive-through charging stations:

Maybe this is a good charging solution for a bus on a circular route, or something like this. You can equip several streets your vehicle fleet uses frequently and you can run them 24/7.

The UK already has buses that recharge at special stops at each end of the route:

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-25621426
 

Offline phil from seattle

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 612
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #293 on: April 13, 2018, 04:50:07 pm »

This is a very intersting converstation, it goes to show you how everyones experiance with a plugin electric car is different.
The drive from LA to SF takes an additional 2 hours in a Tesla.
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/fastest-trip-la-sf

And driving a Tesla to Tahoe once you leave the Sacramento area where are the Super Chargers?  And just how many of them are in Tahoe?
Lake Tahoe South Shore gets first Tesla Superchargers as region prepares for more electric vehicles
https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/local/lake-tahoe-south-shore-gets-first-tesla-supercharger-as-region-prepares-for-more-electric-vehicles/

In the region there are only a handful of public Tesla Superchargers. There is one in Reno with a second in the works, two in Truckee with another on the way, one in Topaz Lake and now one in Stateline. Last year a universal DC Fast Charger was installed in the Heavenly Village Park.

Can you make it from Seattle to Lake Chelan witout having to stop for a charge along the way?  Then one in Chelan are there any SC stations?  How would you make this trip?

I looked at a Tesla and purcashed a Volt instead.  As Teslas are watining in line to get charged.  The trip for us to LA is same as for ICE.  No 2 hour for usto get a charge.

Well, for starters, you cite 4 year old experiences for the LA to SF drive. A LOT of SCs have been added since then and the new ones are 120KW minimum (as opposed to 90KW). Check out this map for the current supercharger locations.

When some one goes to Tahoe, it's usually a destination. With destination charging, L2 is fine. It looks like lots of hotels have chargers, just pick one that gives you an overnight charge. The SCs around tahoe are big ones, Stateline has 14 stations, there are 14 stations between the two Truckee ones. There are a number of ChaDeMo chargers which Teslas can use. And various casinos and ski areas have chargers. I wouldn't hesitate to make that trip in my Tesla.  https://www.plugshare.com/ for more info.

My house in Seattle to Chelan is 171 miles - no charging stop needed. No SCs at Chelan but there are a number of chargers L2 and HAL2. As a destination, that works for me as I can charge while doing other things (dining, sleeping,...). Most nice hotels have chargers.  There are a number of SCs planned for that area - Wenatchee, Omak though Telsa is pretty good about missing "approximate schedules".  I have confidence they will get there eventually. There are a number of 50KW ChaDeMo chargers on the route that I can use, one in Leavenworth which is about 1/2 way for those that don't have enough charge. Not as good as an SC but still pretty fast. Plus Leavenworth is a fun place to stop, anyway. We often do it regardless of how much charge we have.

In a few weeks we're going to Walla Walla for wine tasting weekend. Two SCs (eburg, kennewick) and the hotel has a charger. Total delay over driving straight through is about 40 minutes. But then, no one drives straight through - bathroom, food, coffee. The EV does take longer but not hours. We could do the trip with one stop but 2 stops at lower charge levels make it go faster.
 

Online nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 20151
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #294 on: April 13, 2018, 05:38:43 pm »
Quote
If many more households have an EV which they let charge overnight the electricity grid would get overloaded.
I read such a quote several times in this thread, and this is BS.
If we switch to EVs this would add between 10% (UK) and 15% (Germany) to the electricity demand.
You don't understand. It is not about consumption but it is about distribution! The distribution network at the street level needs to be able to cope with charging EVs (and the same problem applies to solar panels).

This graph shows that households are not the primary users of electricity so this should give you an indication on how the distribution grid has been designed:


Also your numbers are wrong. If I simply multiply the km driven by cars in the NL (118 trillion) and the required kWh per km (250Wh):  118.5G * 0.250=29GWh) then in the NL it will take an additional 25% (29GWh/120GWh=25%) of elecricity generating capacity to switch to EVs. This means that the capacity of the local distribution grids will need to be almost doubled to deliver that additional 25% if people charge their EVs at home. The same goes (worse) in reverse for putting solar panels on roofs.

Edit: I read the article you quoted and the articles it linked to but how they get to only 10% extra demand is conveniently left out even though it is a crucial number to determine the validity of their claims. The ease with which I can debunk it makes me think it has been pulled out of a dark place. The graphs showing the massive multi-billion Pounds investments into charging infrastructure speak for themselve though. It makes me doubt EVs will ever become mainstream. Interesting for the happy few who can charge them from their own solar panels and/or wind turbines but it is going to be expensive for everyone else.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 06:13:44 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 20151
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #295 on: April 13, 2018, 09:45:51 pm »
If I simply multiply the km driven by cars in the NL (118 trillion) and the required kWh per km (250Wh):  118.5G * 0.250=29GWh) then in the NL it will take an additional 25% (29GWh/120GWh=25%) of elecricity generating capacity to switch to EVs. This means that the capacity of the local distribution grids will need to be almost doubled to deliver that additional 25% if people charge their EVs at home.

And again the same assumption: Over night all cars are replaced by EVs and the grid needs to be doubled.  :scared:

We are split what the exact numbers are, but whats the point? The grid needs to be developed? Sure! We need more electricity? Sure! We pay the companies for this development? Sure! They will handle this. It's a normal day-to-day process to develop, maintain and upgrade the infrastructure around us.

The amount of EVs will grow over the next decades and also the grid will be delevoped in the same time. The world will continue to turn. Everything will be fine, don't worry!
You are reading things that aren't there. I never said EVs are replaced over night. I'm just looking at the current situation and a hypothetical situation in which cars are replaced by EVs and what needs to be done to achieve that. I never attached a time line to it!

Also updating the distribution grid for heavier loads in small or big steps is going to be more expensive no matter how you twist and turn it.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 10:11:59 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1718
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #296 on: April 13, 2018, 09:49:24 pm »
When smartmeters were installed in California the tech companies like Cisco thought the could make a bundle with new power company related smartgrid networking.

In theory Cisco was correct and they had the potential to make billions.  But then the questions is who is going to pay fo the billions to upgrade the grid.  Cisco researchers cost estimates found it would be cost to replace existing grid plus and other 50%.  Why the other 50%?  Becausee the power companies have spares of evertyghing for when devices fail.  Upgrading the grid means throwing away the brand new spares plus all of the existing grid equipment.

At the time no one sees the value in upgrading the grid or paying for it.  Cisco estimates it will be over 100 years to upgrade the gird just in California.

It’s one of those things...  If it’s not broken, no one wants to pay to replace what’s working with something that will, to them, work just the same.


 
 

Offline phil from seattle

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 612
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #297 on: April 13, 2018, 10:42:46 pm »

You are reading things that aren't there. I never said EVs are replaced over night. I'm just looking at the current situation and a hypothetical situation in which cars are replaced by EVs and what needs to be done to achieve that. I never attached a time line to it!

Also updating the distribution grid for heavier loads in small or big steps is going to be more expensive no matter how you twist and turn it.
Well, I certainly see the "overloaded grid" arguments using the loads from full deployment of EVs. The system will get upgraded based on demand - happens all the time.  Also, peak consumption, at least in North America, is mid-day so there is capacity to spare in the evenings when most EVs would be charged. In fact, a lot of utilities have lower night rates to encourage consumption at off-peak times. I'm not sure how close to over-capacity the grid really is.
 

Online nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 20151
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #298 on: April 14, 2018, 12:06:16 am »

You are reading things that aren't there. I never said EVs are replaced over night. I'm just looking at the current situation and a hypothetical situation in which cars are replaced by EVs and what needs to be done to achieve that. I never attached a time line to it!

Also updating the distribution grid for heavier loads in small or big steps is going to be more expensive no matter how you twist and turn it.
Well, I certainly see the "overloaded grid" arguments using the loads from full deployment of EVs. The system will get upgraded based on demand - happens all the time.  Also, peak consumption, at least in North America, is mid-day so there is capacity to spare in the evenings when most EVs would be charged. In fact, a lot of utilities have lower night rates to encourage consumption at off-peak times. I'm not sure how close to over-capacity the grid really is.
Peak consumption during the day is due to the companies being active. During the day usage from residential areas is low anyway because most people are at work. But don't take my word for it: https://www.epa.gov/energy/electricity-customers
I hope it is clear that charging the EVs when people come back home from work is not a good idea because that overlaps with peak demand in residential areas.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3581
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #299 on: April 14, 2018, 12:26:40 am »

You are reading things that aren't there. I never said EVs are replaced over night. I'm just looking at the current situation and a hypothetical situation in which cars are replaced by EVs and what needs to be done to achieve that. I never attached a time line to it!

Also updating the distribution grid for heavier loads in small or big steps is going to be more expensive no matter how you twist and turn it.
Well, I certainly see the "overloaded grid" arguments using the loads from full deployment of EVs. The system will get upgraded based on demand - happens all the time.  Also, peak consumption, at least in North America, is mid-day so there is capacity to spare in the evenings when most EVs would be charged. In fact, a lot of utilities have lower night rates to encourage consumption at off-peak times. I'm not sure how close to over-capacity the grid really is.
Peak consumption during the day is due to the companies being active. During the day usage from residential areas is low anyway because most people are at work. But don't take my word for it: https://www.epa.gov/energy/electricity-customers
I hope it is clear that charging the EVs when people come back home from work is not a good idea because that overlaps with peak demand in residential areas.

That's not really correct. You've ignored the fact that daytime air conditioning in the many very hot parts of the US is the largest load.  In other parts of the US or in the same areas but during winter, electric heating is the largest load.

Lighting in the evenings is a relatively smaller load and overnight it is not a factor.

Part of the confusion may be that the diversity of climate in the USA is much greater than your location.

As pointed out previously - many locales have electricity rate structures that encourage conservation during high demand hours - daytime and early evenings.

One of the features of most EVs is the ability to program your charging so that it is only done during low demand times - such as late night or early AM.

The upshot is that overnight charging at home really does make perfect sense.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2018, 12:29:22 am by mtdoc »
 


Share me

Digg  Facebook  SlashDot  Delicious  Technorati  Twitter  Google  Yahoo
Smf