Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 177179 times)

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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3250 on: February 12, 2019, 10:46:45 am »
Just having a look at some news articles on EV's here.  Seems the PC greenwashed media has taken to guilt  tripping everyone for not rushing out to buy a new EV.

'What about the plug?' Australia's electric car infrastructure stalled by policy paralysis

Report urges Government to support electric vehicles

Electric car policy ‘weak and shallow'

Yep, seems once again the little guy is supposed to help big business line their pockets and so is the gubermint and we'll all be guilt tripped until we do.

I did see a gubbermint report done last year that makes 2 out of 17 reccomendations in preparing for EV's that the power authourity take into consideration the additional loads EV's will cause and plan for it. Pretty laughable. They can't even provide enough power for people to run their AC on a hot day now. Wait till a few  more power stations close down and a few thousand EV's hit the grid.

Did a bit of research into my mobile charge truck for people whom run out of power along the road idea today. Can set that up cheaper than I planned.
Was looking at a 50 Kw genny but on further thought I reckon a 25 will do.  The bigger the genny the bigger the vehicle I'll need to carry them and that may restrict access into various places.  If I can keep it to a 1 ton ute, that would be better than having a 2 ton truck that wouldn't fit in car parks. Then again, there may be a need for faster, fuller charge so a 50 Kw thumper on the back of a 2 tonner might be a premium service.

 The way to go I think would be charge a call out fee with 10Kwh of charge included and then an additional charge per 10Kw unit after that. The longer it takes to charge you up and the more fuel I burn the more they pay.
One thing I was wondering about is if it would be possible to charge in the rain in the open? may have to put up some sort of shelter and dry around the vehicle before connecting.

Probably only need 2-3 cables if that.  Have to look into it a bit more, I think Tesla has one to themselves and the majority of the rest will all get by with another type. Might just need to have a fairly long cable to get the juice into vehicles that may not be in the easiest  place's to access.
 
I also saw on the gubbermint Recommendations that all new homes be made EV charger ready.  Obviously put in a heavy duty Circuit but I wonder if homes will be required to have a charge point?  Would be interesting. You go visit grandpa in the country for a family get together and all the atendees want to charge their vehicle for the trip home. Grandpa's charge is going flat out all day and into the evening and grandpa's electric bill just went up $50.
Will the etiquette be there to slip grandpa some cash or will people just take it as their right and leave grandpa to pay their fuel bill.

Pretty sure there is at least 1 in every family that would do that so it will be another social consequence  of the EV age.

In all of Australia only 215 EV cars are sold per year?

Here’s info on why EVs ar eno better for the environment than ICE.  In fact in some cases they are worse.

https://youtu.be/k6GeHnMwl1c
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3251 on: February 12, 2019, 11:19:38 am »
Would like to hear people’s comments on this video.  Not sure who the guy is or who funds the organization he works for.  He sure gives compelling facts as to why EVs pollute more than ICEs.  And why there will never be enough solar and wind power to charge EVs.  (His numbers by the way agree with the solar and wind power association predictions.)
 This video and the video in the last post sure make EVs out to be worse for the global environment while they might be good for the local environment.

https://youtu.be/17xh_VRrnMU
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3252 on: February 12, 2019, 11:35:48 am »
Would like to hear people’s comments on this video.  Not sure who the guy is or who funds the organization he works for.  He sure gives compelling facts as to why EVs pollute more than ICEs.  And why there will never be enough solar and wind power to charge EVs.  (His numbers by the way agree with the solar and wind power association predictions.)
 This video and the video in the last post sure make EVs out to be worse for the global environment while they might be good for the local environment.

https://youtu.be/17xh_VRrnMU
Its from Prager University, which is about as much like a university as Trump University was. The comments under that video list multiple well thought out rebuttals.
 
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Offline george80

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3253 on: February 12, 2019, 01:16:37 pm »

I fully believe what is said in the vid.
just because we are brainwashed that EVs are better and cleaner and cheaper to run and all the hype does not mean in any way it is true.


I have to say I am sick to the back teeth of hearing about Co2 though. Bored shitless in fact.

I did some number crunching using Teslas own figures on cost to run a while back and found the EV was more expensive to run than an IC. As usual, tesla slews the numbers their way by offering an amount of free charging which they take into their calculation to make the numbers look favourable. Of course when you have used up that free power (400? Kw) and are paying a middle road price for power in oz of .30C Kwh, the things are significantly more exy to run for the same miles traveled.

There is one thing i don't often see factored into the EV equation and that's Vehicle Life.
It's pretty clear to everyone that once the battery pack in an EV dies or looses significant capacity  in the estimated 7-10 years, the things will be worthless.
Unlike the cost of maintence for an IC which can easily go 20 Year without  major over haul, a new/ refurb EV pack will be more than the car is worth.
A lot of the diagnostics on EV's won't be happy with a calculted 50 Km range from say 250KM, They will just brick the things to make sure there are no safety issues for one thing.

It won't be just a matter of go to a wrecker and get another pack. Already manufacturers are coding parts to the cars computer ( Tesla even does head and tail lights that won't work until coded and approved to work on another vehicle which they decide  and have to authorize) so if the manufacturer says something like "  we only allow refurb packs to be used bought through us so we can be assured they meet our quality and safety standards" or similar bullshit,  You can bet they are going to price the packs so as to make a replacement un economical and force you into a new vehicle.

there goes giving the old car to the kids or selling it and putting the money towards the new one. The thing will be SCRAP.
Plenty of 10 and 20 yo cars getting round here and doing fine.  I have a 13, a 17 and a 26 Yo now and they give no trouble at all.
the 17 Yo just had a through going though and I replaced a driveshaft, front pads and the wiper blades as well as an oil and filter change.  Cam belt has another 40k km to go and I don't see anything more than that needing to be done other than regular Maintence.

 Seems unlikely they will be many/ any EV's past 10 Yo.  Faster turn over means more resources used, more emissions created and over all a detriment for the planet.

The whole thing about EV's being enviro friendly is a crock. they are not created to save the planet, they are made to make the manufacturers money. More money than they have seen since they started.
Simple as that.
 

Online GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3254 on: February 12, 2019, 02:33:52 pm »
I think the gubbermints as you say want to try to force us to trash all our ICEs asap and buy again new cars everybody. That's lots in taxes and fees and macro economy figures which is good for them and bad for us and our pockets.
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Offline orion242

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3255 on: February 12, 2019, 03:20:20 pm »
It's pretty clear to everyone that once the battery pack in an EV dies or looses significant capacity  in the estimated 7-10 years, the things will be worthless.
Unlike the cost of maintence for an IC which can easily go 20 Year without  major over haul, a new/ refurb EV pack will be more than the car is worth.

Was thinking along the same lines after hearing these nuts talk about powering buildings with EVs

https://youtu.be/ZocItmIPQEM?t=375

So I drive to work, hopefully charge while there and ideally have a full charge when I leave.  How much power could really be sucked out of EVs and still leave me with enough to get home, never mind if I have errands to run after work?   Unless there are quick chargers at every parking spot, seems like there would be little to harvest.  Would be interesting to look at the avg number of cars parked at the typical commercial building and its power consumption and what installing charge ports in a whole parking structure costs.

That aside.  I own said battery pack and its got a limited number of cycles and the most expensive component to replace.  What incentive is there for me to sign up for this nonsense and wear the piss out of my battery?

 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3256 on: February 12, 2019, 04:23:10 pm »
Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study
 

Offline orion242

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3257 on: February 12, 2019, 04:29:16 pm »
Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study

Over four years...avoiding the whole battery replacement costs.

One could easily do a write up with the opposite conclusion and look at the costs on day one, aka purchase price.

Somewhat pointless in both cases.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2019, 04:38:07 pm by orion242 »
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3258 on: February 12, 2019, 04:41:51 pm »
Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study
Over four years...

One could easily do a write up with the opposite conclusion and look at the costs on day one, aka purchase price.

Somewhat pointless in both cases.
Agreed and the comparison is likely not taking the massive costs of infrastructure upgrades into account and assumes people can charge at home.
The dead giveaway the graph is wrong (lying) is because diesel cars are more expensive compared to petrol. Diesel cars are cheaper to run because the fuel is cheaper but the higher purchase price requires you to drive more.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3259 on: February 12, 2019, 04:42:59 pm »
Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study

Over four years...avoiding the whole battery replacement costs.

One could easily do a write up with the opposite conclusion and look at the costs on day one, aka purchase price.

Somewhat pointless in both cases.
As for your suggested calculation, who buys a car and then instantly resells it (which is the only scenario that would apply).

This just comes down to "haters gonna hate" , doesn't it?

 

Offline orion242

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3260 on: February 12, 2019, 05:01:51 pm »
As for your suggested calculation, who buys a car and then instantly resells it (which is the only scenario that would apply).

Said nothing about selling it.  For comparable car, roll it off the lot, which is cheaper today and without a ton of subsidies?

This just comes down to "haters gonna hate" , doesn't it?

And then there are the Musk fanboys that think they will sitting on mars with cold frosty drinks in a few years for little more than the cost of today's plane tickets.
 

Online GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3261 on: February 12, 2019, 06:11:42 pm »


 >:D
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3262 on: February 12, 2019, 06:43:02 pm »
Would like to hear people’s comments on this video.  Not sure who the guy is or who funds the organization he works for.  He sure gives compelling facts as to why EVs pollute more than ICEs.  And why there will never be enough solar and wind power to charge EVs.  (His numbers by the way agree with the solar and wind power association predictions.)
 This video and the video in the last post sure make EVs out to be worse for the global environment while they might be good for the local environment.

https://youtu.be/17xh_VRrnMU
Its from Prager University, which is about as much like a university as Trump University was. The comments under that video list multiple well thought out rebuttals.

Can you highlight some of the well thought out rebuttals you seem to have found?  Most are opinions which say what's in the video is wrong.  Of that that Prager has a agenda and is biased.

While all of that might be true no one has provided any credible evidence to the contrary.  In the limited fact checking I have done I can't find any fault in the science or the figures.

A fact used in the video is the life of the car.  Looking at stats from around the world average age is around 9 years is fair based on the date the video was created.

It is really a fair representation to have a sample size of 1 or 4 countries?  So while some of you might live in Australia where EVs are charged by coal. Or in Canada where they would be charged by hydro.  Or Sweden/France where they are charged by nuclear.  And it looks like if you live in the UK and own an EV the electricity is free.

Why are you thinking locally when what's being discussed in the video is globally?  And the life of the average car.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2019, 07:21:47 pm by DougSpindler »
 

Offline orion242

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3263 on: February 12, 2019, 07:34:05 pm »
Even that video seems to only compare the first 9yrs between ICE & EV.  Personally I have kept the last 3-4 cars till they got in the 150-200k mark.  Last one just got taken off the road by the inspection nazis, 2002 Chevy S10 with 167k miles.  Ran great yet, but was rusting so much it was BER.

Just looking at some quick figures, its seems the DOT has the average lifespan of a US car at 11yrs these days.  Seems realistic, I certainly take them to the grave and normally get more than that.

How long is the lifespan on a EV battery?  100K miles?  150k?  200k?

https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost
https://www.autotrader.com/car-tips/long-term-electric-vehicle-ownership-pros-and-cons-220975

So what is the resale value of a 10yr old EV?  Guessing most of these end up at the scrapper since its probably not worth the battery replacement cost at that point.  If ICE can get another few years of useful life, that alot of additional manufacturing impact as well.  150-200K miles isn't a problem for a maintained ICE of the last few decades.
 

Offline dzseki

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3264 on: February 12, 2019, 07:59:14 pm »
Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3265 on: February 12, 2019, 08:03:36 pm »
Even that video seems to only compare the first 9yrs between ICE & EV.  Personally I have kept the last 3-4 cars till they got in the 150-200k mark.  Last one just got taken off the road by the inspection nazis, 2002 Chevy S10 with 167k miles.  Ran great yet, but was rusting so much it was BER.

Just looking at some quick figures, its seems the DOT has the average lifespan of a US car at 11yrs these days.  Seems realistic, I certainly take them to the grave and normally get more than that.

How long is the lifespan on a EV battery?  100K miles?  150k?  200k?

https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost
https://www.autotrader.com/car-tips/long-term-electric-vehicle-ownership-pros-and-cons-220975

So what is the resale value of a 10yr old EV?  Guessing most of these end up at the scrapper since its probably not worth the battery replacement cost at that point.  If ICE can get another few years of useful life, that alot of additional manufacturing impact as well.  150-200K miles isn't a problem for a maintained ICE of the last few decades.

We are in the middle of an experiment with EV batteries.  We have hypothetical figures, but the truth is we don't know for modern EVs.  I think we have very good data from the first EVs of 100 years ago.  And second generation EVs from the 1970s.

Current generation EVs are getting close to being 10 years old so we will have some data points soon.

As for the value of a used EV that's 6-8 years old they appear to be on par with ICE.  (Granted this is a small sample size and in the US/California.)
The real data is going to come in over the next two years.  Should be interesting.

Out of curiosity anyone know the life of EV batteries from 100 years ago?  Baker EVs could be driven four to five hours on a single charge.

 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3266 on: February 12, 2019, 08:17:50 pm »
Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...
I don't see why not. The 1.0l Ecoboost from Ford seems to be pretty reliable. I don't see any horror stories on the local Ford forum. Besides that many people drive too slow which causes the engine to built up dirt inside. A small engine which has to work every now and then doesn't have that problem.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2019, 08:20:35 pm by nctnico »
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3267 on: February 12, 2019, 08:19:19 pm »
Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...
I don't see why not. The 1.0l Ecoboost from Ford seems to be pretty reliable. Many people drive too slow which causes the engine to built up dirt inside. A small engine which has to work every now and then doesn't have that problem.

It's an experiment in progress.
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3268 on: February 12, 2019, 08:25:33 pm »
Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...
I don't see why not. The 1.0l Ecoboost from Ford seems to be pretty reliable. I don't see any horror stories on the local Ford forum. Besides that many people drive too slow which causes the engine to built up dirt inside. A small engine which has to work every now and then doesn't have that problem.
I think you mean many people drive largely around town, and never get up to speed. This causes problems for the DPF in diesels, and car makers tell people clears that the car needs frequent highway runs to clear the filter. Ford just sold the Ecoboost engines as general purpose engines. Its turning into a financial disaster for Ford, with all the compensation for fires and the recalls. You have an interesting concept of reliable.
 

Offline dzseki

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3269 on: February 12, 2019, 08:43:57 pm »
One way or an other, car manufacturers let that be ICE or EV, want YOU to buy new car frequently, and they do more and more to force this.
 

Offline orion242

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3270 on: February 12, 2019, 08:45:19 pm »
Current generation EVs are getting close to being 10 years old so we will have some data points soon.

As for the value of a used EV that's 6-8 years old they appear to be on par with ICE.  (Granted this is a small sample size and in the US/California.)
The real data is going to come in over the next two years.  Should be interesting.

Just a quick check on kelly blue book for 2011 Nisson leaf and it appeared your correct.  Seem to go for $7-10K in the listings at the bottom of the page.

https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/cars/used-cars/nissan/leaf/?vehicleid=352716&year=2011-2013&distance=150

Looking a bit closer...these things have like 20-40K miles.  Highest millage was just over 50K.  Seven year old cars and most <40K miles?!?  That's 1/3 the national average of 15K/year.  That's just the 11 cars within 150mi of me.

Too early to tell, but that 5 min look into KBB smells a bit off if that's the resale numbers being used.  These things have been parked for most their life.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2019, 08:46:53 pm by orion242 »
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3271 on: February 12, 2019, 08:54:09 pm »
Current generation EVs are getting close to being 10 years old so we will have some data points soon.

As for the value of a used EV that's 6-8 years old they appear to be on par with ICE.  (Granted this is a small sample size and in the US/California.)
The real data is going to come in over the next two years.  Should be interesting.

Just a quick check on kelly blue book for 2011 Nisson leaf and it appeared your correct.  Seem to go for $7-10K in the listings at the bottom of the page.

https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/cars/used-cars/nissan/leaf/?vehicleid=352716&year=2011-2013&distance=150

Looking a bit closer...these things have like 20-40K miles.  Highest millage was just over 50K.  Seven year old cars and most <40K miles?!?  That's 1/3 the national average of 15K/year.  That's just the 11 cars within 150mi of me.

Too early to tell, but that 5 min look into KBB smells a bit off if that's the resale numbers being used.  These things have been parked for most their life.
Remember that the Leaf has limited range. A lot of buyers are probably people who mostly make short journeys, and are way below the national average for annual mileage.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3272 on: February 12, 2019, 08:59:34 pm »
Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...
I don't see why not. The 1.0l Ecoboost from Ford seems to be pretty reliable. I don't see any horror stories on the local Ford forum. Besides that many people drive too slow which causes the engine to built up dirt inside. A small engine which has to work every now and then doesn't have that problem.
I think you mean many people drive largely around town, and never get up to speed. This causes problems for the DPF in diesels, and car makers tell people clears that the car needs frequent highway runs to clear the filter. Ford just sold the Ecoboost engines as general purpose engines. Its turning into a financial disaster for Ford, with all the compensation for fires and the recalls. You have an interesting concept of reliable.
I'm unaware of fires. There has been a recall for fixing the cooling system of the Ecoboost engines. AFAIK the resulting damages have been repaired for free. Every new car model has teething issues so nothing out of the ordinary there. Just be sure not to buy a new car model and you'll be fine. One of the advantages of buying used cars is that you can research common problems.

BTW driving short distances is also not good for petrol cars. For example: the piston seals can seize up causing high oil consumption.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2019, 09:13:25 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline gildasd

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3273 on: February 12, 2019, 09:07:20 pm »
Current generation EVs are getting close to being 10 years old so we will have some data points soon.

As for the value of a used EV that's 6-8 years old they appear to be on par with ICE.  (Granted this is a small sample size and in the US/California.)
The real data is going to come in over the next two years.  Should be interesting.

Just a quick check on kelly blue book for 2011 Nisson leaf and it appeared your correct.  Seem to go for $7-10K in the listings at the bottom of the page.

https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/cars/used-cars/nissan/leaf/?vehicleid=352716&year=2011-2013&distance=150

Looking a bit closer...these things have like 20-40K miles.  Highest millage was just over 50K.  Seven year old cars and most <40K miles?!?  That's 1/3 the national average of 15K/year.  That's just the 11 cars within 150mi of me.

Too early to tell, but that 5 min look into KBB smells a bit off if that's the resale numbers being used.  These things have been parked for most their life.
Depends where you live...
With a co-worker we were looking for a decent 2013 Leaf in the Nederland, and they were all way too expensive...
He needed a car for school runs, shopping, wife going to uni and going to the parents on Sundays, so the range is more than sufficient.
From where he lives the closest cheap petrol station is very inconveniently situated, so he was hoping to avoid ever getting a tank.
Anyhow, he got a small Honda Hybrid, still good on the tax front, but not what he wanted.
I'm electronically illiterate
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3274 on: February 12, 2019, 09:18:26 pm »

BTW driving short distances is also not good for petrol cars. For example: the piston seals can seize up causing high oil consumption.

This is exactly why you don't want to driving around in an old car.  Modern cars do not have this issue.
 


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