### Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 185185 times)

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#### coppice

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3425 on: February 23, 2019, 02:25:14 pm »

The solution is to have batteries with you solar system.

The soloution to what exactly?
Please make the answer a realistic one and not some green washed flawed rubbish theory.
Store solar energy in the day and then when you need it on peak demand use the batteries.  People do this all the time.

Why are you insulting me?

This stuff is commercially available.

I think george80 was looking for a more general solution than one that only works in one of the small number of places where a high level of insolation is guaranteed every day of the entire year.

#### DougSpindler

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3426 on: February 23, 2019, 02:36:44 pm »
[...] Dave a few years ago made a video on the heat loss with lead acid batteries.   During charging 20% of the electricity used to charge the battery is lost as heat.  When discharging there's a 20% loss to heat.  So between charging and discharging one loses 40% to heat. [...]

For the third time Doug, please, where is that video? Have you got the url?
Same here. AFAIK someone already debunked Doug's numbers earlier on in this thread.

Does ave have an ubdex of his videos?

#### DougSpindler

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3427 on: February 23, 2019, 02:39:44 pm »
To take a car 100km you'll need 1kg of hydrogen. That translates to 25 liters of liquid per 100km. 500km of range would translate to 125 liters. Say that is 150kg to round it up. An EV would need 125kWh to cover 500km which translates to a battery with a mass of over 400kg.

Ahhh, except you neglected to factor in the containment vessel required to actually hold said hydrogen in the vehicle...

This is where it becomes increasingly impractical.
No, the idea behind keeping hydrogen in a liquid is that you can keep it in a regular thin walled fuel tank. OTOH Toyota already has figured out how to build a safe high pressure hydrogen tank for their Mirai (IMHO they went a little bit overboard by making it -litterally- bullet proof) so either way storing the hydrogen is solved. It all comes down to operational costs.

Problem with Ftdrogen if there’s a leak it odorless and colorless and really likes to explode.

#### ahbushnell

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3428 on: February 23, 2019, 02:42:31 pm »

One would be a fool to buy batteries.

THAT is the correct/ logical/ realistic/ truthful answer.
And the only one.

We don't have such a beneficial power pricing scheme in Oz but no matter where you are in the world from what I have seen, there is NO where in the world batteries make any sense right now nor will do for the forseeable future.
The price would have to be about 1/3rd of what they are now to get in the ball park no matter what you pay for power.
Some places have batterys than others but where the batterys are cheaper the power is too canceling out any ROI advantage.

I have seen all sorts of convoluted, complicated and green washed calculations to try and prove otherwise but the equations is very simple.
At 100% utilization 100% of the time, they simply cannot save enough power for it's value to repay it's cost in a valid time frame being the lifetime of the battery. The exception maybe a DIY system using forklift packs or the like but certainly no Powerbore  or similar plug and play type battery has any valid Financial benefit.

Oh yeah, we can spin doctor the argument as well and say I bought one for blackout power which,
1. is still not saving power and is a totaly different scenario, and,
2, You are a fool for paying far too much for an overpriced solution when there are far better and cheaper alternatives.

If you buy a battery to "save the environment",  Well I won't nominate fitting and applicable names but lets just say you are either a product or sucker of the PC greenwashed.

I bought 3 Diesel engines this week and 2 Generator heads.  All working or brand new.  $300 all up. One needs a new belt, the other would need the head and the engine mounted and hooked up. Lets play devils advocate and call it$200 to make a nice Figure of $500. Where a battery lasts hours, I can run everything and lot more than a battery can till the cows come home..... in 6 months time. And I still have a spare engine. Another reason not to use batteries is the heat loss. Dave a few years ago made a video on the heat loss with lead acid batteries. During charging 20% of the electricity used to charge the battery is lost as heat. When discharging there's a 20% loss to heat. So between charging and discharging one loses 40% to heat. That's like going to the bank and opening a savings account. For every dollar you put in the bank, the bank gives you$0.60 back.  (The other $0.40 is used to heat the bank.) Lithium batteries are better than 20%. But they are not 100% efficient. #### ahbushnell • Frequent Contributor • Posts: 479 • Country: ##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream? « Reply #3429 on: February 23, 2019, 03:12:53 pm » The wholesale rate for electricity credits in San Diego, CA is .04162$/kW-hr in Feb of 2019.  Last summer it was .034.  The peak demand rate in the summer is .6 $/kW-hr. That's between 6 and 9 pm. I don't know how the economics works on this but it is not net metering. #### coppice • Super Contributor • Posts: 5056 • Country: ##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream? « Reply #3430 on: February 23, 2019, 03:15:30 pm » No, the idea behind keeping hydrogen in a liquid is that you can keep it in a regular thin walled fuel tank. OTOH Toyota already has figured out how to build a safe high pressure hydrogen tank for their Mirai (IMHO they went a little bit overboard by making it -litterally- bullet proof) so either way storing the hydrogen is solved. It all comes down to operational costs. Toyota, Honda, Hyundai and others have all figured out how to make a hydrogen tank for a car, but I don't think any of them consider it a solved problem. The costs are horrendous, and the performance of valves, and other fittings, with the small size of hydrogen molecules, is problematic. The size and weight of the current tanks are also an issue. I find your point about bullet proofing the tank rather odd. Do you want to approve a design that would form a rather effective bomb in an accident? These things are an enormous risk compare to a gasoline, diesel, LPG or CNG tank. #### DougSpindler • Super Contributor • Posts: 1157 • Country: ##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream? « Reply #3431 on: February 23, 2019, 03:25:30 pm » The wholesale rate for electricity credits in San Diego, CA is .04162$/kW-hr in Feb of 2019.  Last summer it was .034.  The peak demand rate in the summer is .6 $/kW-hr. That's between 6 and 9 pm. I don't know how the economics works on this but it is not net metering. San Diego has net metering and your rates from what I understand is close to PG&E. You are able to sell electricity to the power company when rates are high and buy the electricty back the same day when rates are lower. Get on the “right” rate plan and there is a 400% spread between what you sell and buy electricity at. #### DougSpindler • Super Contributor • Posts: 1157 • Country: ##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream? « Reply #3432 on: February 23, 2019, 03:31:47 pm » [...] Dave a few years ago made a video on the heat loss with lead acid batteries. During charging 20% of the electricity used to charge the battery is lost as heat. When discharging there's a 20% loss to heat. So between charging and discharging one loses 40% to heat. [...] For the third time Doug, please, where is that video? Have you got the url? Turns out it is even worse than what Dave state’s in his videos. Lead Acid batteries can loose up to 50% in heat loss due to Peukert”s law. https://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lead-acid-battery-downsides/ #### ahbushnell • Frequent Contributor • Posts: 479 • Country: ##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream? « Reply #3433 on: February 23, 2019, 03:49:57 pm » The wholesale rate for electricity credits in San Diego, CA is .04162$/kW-hr in Feb of 2019.  Last summer it was .034.  The peak demand rate in the summer is .6 $/kW-hr. That's between 6 and 9 pm. I don't know how the economics works on this but it is not net metering. San Diego has net metering and your rates from what I understand is close to PG&E. You are able to sell electricity to the power company when rates are high and buy the electricty back the same day when rates are lower. Get on the “right” rate plan and there is a 400% spread between what you sell and buy electricity at. That's not true. For some reason the links I posted did not show up? This link is from SDGE with a list of the credit you get for excess energy production. This varies with time so this is historical but includes this month. https://www.sdge.com/residential/savings-center/solar-power-renewable-energy/net-energy-metering/billing-information/excess-generation Andy #### GeorgeOfTheJungle • Super Contributor • Posts: 2410 • Country: ##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream? « Reply #3434 on: February 23, 2019, 04:30:49 pm » Lithium batteries are better than 20%. But they are not 100% efficient. And if you use them, for example with a powerwall, to charge your EV then you end up with 0.8*0.8= 64% efficiency. http://brave.com <- THE BEST BROWSER #### nctnico • Super Contributor • Posts: 18599 • Country: ##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream? « Reply #3435 on: February 23, 2019, 05:42:19 pm » [...] Dave a few years ago made a video on the heat loss with lead acid batteries. During charging 20% of the electricity used to charge the battery is lost as heat. When discharging there's a 20% loss to heat. So between charging and discharging one loses 40% to heat. [...] For the third time Doug, please, where is that video? Have you got the url? Turns out it is even worse than what Dave state’s in his videos. Lead Acid batteries can loose up to 50% in heat loss due to Peukert”s law. https://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lead-acid-battery-downsides/ But only if you use them at sub-optimal charging / discharging conditions. Say you have a 150V lead acid bank with 200Ah capacity. At C/20 you can draw 10A (1500W) from it without degrading the rated capacity. There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope. #### boffin • Supporter • Posts: 929 • Country: ##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream? « Reply #3436 on: February 23, 2019, 06:41:36 pm » Here in BC the fuel costs of a BEV are 1/7th that of the compatible ICE (given today's electricity/gasoline price), so the incentive is pretty high. I'd like to see real world verifyable figures to support that. I've posted it here on a couple of occasions, but here we go again; VW eGolf vs VW Golf (Canadian spec). eGolf: 17.4kWh/100km (this matches up pretty well with my real-world from the socket numbers https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363) Golf: 8.5l/100km (automatic combined city/highway per NRC CAN reports https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002) Price of electricity:$0.0884/kWh + 5% rate rider + 5%GST = $0.0975/kWh (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html) Price of gasoline:$1.379/l (https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPrices/British%20Columbia/New%20Westminster)

100km on electricity: 17.4 * 0.0975 = $1.70 100km on gasoline: 8.5 * 1.379 =$11.72
6.9x times more expensive on gasoline

So, I'll stick to my 1/7th number (as gasoline has ranged from 1.269 to 1.559 in the last 6 months)

and I'm ready for the stupid responses
1) Those numbers aren't real. -- Yes, they are. Not only do they match what I see, they match the government numbers pretty closely see above references)
2) You picked the automatic -- Yes, it's the most closely comparible
3) Your electricity prices aren't that low.  -- see above reference
4) Your gasoline prices aren't that high -- see above reference
5) You picked a gas guzziling version of the car. -- I picked the equivalent.  Diesel versions are not available in North America
6) You're not comparing apples to apples -- Don't know how much closer you can get comparing a gasoline vs the electric version of basically the same car.
7) You're not including charging losses -- yes I am, this are real world from the socket numbers off my EVSE

and back to the original question:
Q: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

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#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3437 on: February 23, 2019, 06:51:57 pm »
Still your situation is very special compared to the rest of the world when it comes to electricity prices. Also, free charging isn't going to be around forever where you live so if you want to drive for low cost your EV is going to be confined to half it's range from your home. Otherwise expect paying $0.50 per kWh for public charging. Companies will want to recoup the costs of the charging infrastructure. See the increased prices Tesla is charging their customer for charging their cars. If you add everything up then you have to see electric cars will never be mainstream. Batteries are not financially viable for long range transportation and infrastructure costs are way too high compared to the alternatives. « Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 07:32:12 pm by nctnico » There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope. #### drussell • Super Contributor • Posts: 1129 • Country: • Hardcore Geek ##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream? « Reply #3438 on: February 23, 2019, 09:38:16 pm » I've posted it here on a couple of occasions, but here we go again; VW eGolf vs VW Golf (Canadian spec). eGolf: 17.4kWh/100km (this matches up pretty well with my real-world from the socket numbers https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363) Golf: 8.5l/100km (automatic combined city/highway per NRC CAN reports https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002) Price of electricity:$0.0884/kWh + 5% rate rider + 5%GST = $0.0975/kWh (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html) Price of gasoline:$1.379/l (https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPrices/British%20Columbia/New%20Westminster)

100km on electricity: 17.4 * 0.0975 = $1.70 100km on gasoline: 8.5 * 1.379 =$11.72
6.9x times more expensive on gasoline

What are the numbers once you just look at the energy cost and remove all the road taxes that are currently only applied to gasoline vehicles and are not yet charged on electric vehicles?

Wow, $1.379 in B.C. right now. Oof... It's$0.879 here in Calgary.

#### hammy

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3439 on: February 23, 2019, 10:02:29 pm »
100km on electricity: 17.4 * 0.0975 = $1.70 100km on gasoline: 8.5 * 1.379 =$11.72
6.9x times more expensive on gasoline
So, I'll stick to my 1/7th number (as gasoline has ranged from 1.269 to 1.559 in the last 6 months)

I can provide a comparison from germany. I drive my EV now since more than a year, my daily commute is 140km (87miles). The sum over the year is 30.000km (18.600 miles).
Hyundai Ioniq: 14kWh/100 * 0,25€ * 30.000km = 1050€
Mercedes C-Class (diesel): 7L/100 * 1,35€ * 30.000km = 2835€
Diesel fuel is 2,7x times more expensive.
Other costs also count: No tax for the electric car (240€ a year). Maintenance and service costs is 600€ less for the EV.

Over the year the EV is 2625€ cheaper (2977 USD or 3910 CAD).
That is a difference of 218€ a month (247 USD or 325 CAD)

#### boffin

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3440 on: February 23, 2019, 10:02:39 pm »
I've posted it here on a couple of occasions, but here we go again; VW eGolf vs VW Golf (Canadian spec).

eGolf: 17.4kWh/100km (this matches up pretty well with my real-world from the socket numbers https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363)
Golf: 8.5l/100km (automatic combined city/highway per NRC CAN reports https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002)

Price of electricity: $0.0884/kWh + 5% rate rider + 5%GST =$0.0975/kWh (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html)
Price of gasoline: $1.379/l (https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPrices/British%20Columbia/New%20Westminster) 100km on electricity: 17.4 * 0.0975 =$1.70

Ya!

#### george80

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3448 on: February 24, 2019, 01:29:24 am »

Turns out it is even worse than what Dave state’s in his videos.  Lead Acid batteries can loose up to 50% in heat loss due to Peukert”s law.

I don't know about heat loss and haven't watched the vids but I have understood for a long time that you had to put 50% more power into a battery ( LA) than what you got out.  My understanding was the loss is due to the chemical processes/ reactions.  Than may generate heat but either way, a 50% loss is how I have understood batteries to work for several decades.

I have played with a lot of generators and it's pretty easy to see that when an alternator is putting out an amount of current and you are charging batteries that weren't' flat and had to put in more power than what you measured with a Kwh meter that there is a loss. Sure there is a curve as the charge falls off but the little meters I have measure total power and when you can put 100 Ah into a 100 AH battery that was far from flat, it illustrated the story very clearly.  Never been any surprise to me except on good battery's where the efficiency is better which does happen.

That said, I have only found any noticeable battery heating at the last 20%  of final charge why you are running max charge rate to get them up as quick as possible.  When charging at lower rates the batteries remain at ambient.  Could be due to heat dissipation but I doubt it.

For whatever Phenomenon is taking place, 50% greater input than what you get out is very old news in my understanding of things.

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#### george80

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3449 on: February 24, 2019, 02:02:24 am »

I've posted it here on a couple of occasions, but here we go again; VW eGolf vs VW Golf (Canadian spec).

eGolf: 17.4kWh/100km (this matches up pretty well with my real-world from the socket numbers https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363)
Golf: 8.5l/100km (automatic combined city/highway per NRC CAN reports https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002)
5) You picked a gas guzziling version of the car. -- I picked the equivalent.  Diesel versions are not available in North America

6) You're not comparing apples to apples -- Don't know how much closer you can get comparing a gasoline vs the electric version of basically the same car.

Yeah well sorry but  while this may be a one off instance, I would say it's not applicable to a lot of people around the world for a number of reasons.

1. You picked a car which is unusually economical on power and rather thirsty for it's size in the petrol Version.
If I look at the list of cars on the ling you provided, 25-30 Kwh / 100 Km would be far more indicative of the great majority of vehicles on that list.

Secondly, the petrol version is thirsty. We have full size 6 Cyl family cars that get better mileage than that. Look at the jap offerings like camrys that are sold the world over and are a much bigger car and they leave that consumption behind.

2.  You use the gas version because the diesel that does 5L/ 100 is not available where you are.  No one gets power for .8c kwh here.
Try running the comparison in a far wider world scenario of a diesel getting 5L 100 and power costing .30c kwh for a car that uses lets say 27Kwh 100 and I think the numbers will be different.

3. What does an e golf and a gas golf cost where you are? From what I can see, the petrol golf is $21 K and the E golf is 31K. based on your numbers, that means the first 7400L of fuel are relatively free in the petrol version over the savings over the electric. Multiply that by the said 8.5L 100 and that translates to 63,000 KM paid for. Of course then you have to take into account interest paid or lost on the$10K difference and what I would guarantee will be a Huge hit on resale value of the electric once all these newer, cheaper electrics come out over the next 4-5 Years when one might be looking to replace the EV.  Come the 7-10 Yr mark and you will have to as battery capacity on the EV will be round the block if there is not some " Protection" built into the thing that will let it run at all. 10 years out of a modern Ice car is nothing.

To get economic vlayue out of a vehicle that costs more to buy you have to drive it long distances . The thing with ev's is many people talk about them being good for short daily commoute.  that's the complete opposite of hat you want to get more value out of them. It is exactly the same as people spending 10K more to buy an economical Diesel when the car they are trading has done 50K km in the 5 years they have owned it.