When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[george80]

I rarely drive with the radio/ sound system playing.
I prefer to just think and relax.

Auto volume control is common in cars now. maybe smart designers could incorporate noise cancelling technology like headphones? The sound system  plays " Anti Noise" sounds that compensate which is occurring?

Clearly it's something that would be of use to Tesla Drivers save them having to pull their vehicles apart to install conventional sound deadening.

[DougSpindler]

Electric cars are already cheaper to own and run than petrol or diesel alternatives in five European countries analysed in new research.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study

Did you notice the mention of subsidies for electric cars?
I wonder if the subsidies were eliminated and the comparison was made just an operating the vehicles if the outcome would be the same? 

[george80]

Did you notice the mention of subsidies for electric cars?
I wonder if the subsidies were eliminated and the comparison was made just an operating the vehicles if the outcome would be the same?

Yeah, I noticed it and though that won't last too long.  When everyone else isn't paying for these flavour of the month antidotes for a midlife Crisis and power has gone up due to increasing demand, then lets see how cheap they are.

 The other thing will be the free charging. If these EV's get past the novelty stage and achieve any worthwhile mass, Like everything else people will start cashing in on it. So many places now won't even let you park for free and that costs nothing. They won't give you a bottle of water for nothing they could buy for .50C if they bought in bulk so why are they going to give you $10 worth of power?

The EV crowd don't really think places are going to add thousands to their power bills giving away '000's of Kw of electricity forever do they when they can make a buck out of it?
It's OK now as a PR exercise to bring in a few cars a day but if there are loads of them, the costs will soon add up and the recharging will be paid for as so many stations already are.

Even tesla has already pulled back on the free charging gimmick.

[DougSpindler]

In the US/California we are getting $10,000 USD in cash rebates and tax credits for having an electric car.  Having an EV also allows us to be on a EV rate plan with our power company.  This allows us to buy electricity at a cheaper rate not only for our car but our entire house.  If we did not have an EV car our electric bill would be $35 to $75 more per month.

Posters were mentioning loud tire noise.  But what everyone failed to mention is tire noise is wasted energy resulting in less miles per gallon or kHr.  The louder the tire noise the more energy is wasted.



 

[george80]

  This allows us to buy electricity at a cheaper rate not only for our car but our entire house.  If we did not have an EV car our electric bill would be $35 to $75 more per month.

Far out!
California really is greenwashed fairy LA LA land.  I can see why my mate is desperate to get out the place!
Not only do people have to subsidize someone elses car, they have to subsidize their living expenses as well!

What sort of fked up thinking is that??

Just goes to show the inconsistency of the green mentality that dosen't know what they want.  I was just reading a discussion where the local green zealots were whining that people with solar panels should pay more for the power they do use or a monthly additional charge because it's not fair to the people that don't have them to have to pay more for the upkeep of the poles and wires.

Imagine if they had to pay more towards other people power bills when they were already paying towards the cars they Drove.
There would be a riot and for once, Rightfully so. 

I thought our Pollies and policy makers had some stupid ideas but that takes the cake!

[DougSpindler]

Another Tesla crashes into a tree and catches fire.  This time the driver was a Tesla employee and lived.  Remember the Apple employee that drove into a tree with autopilot on was killed.  This guy walked away.  The fire department had to spray water on the batteries for 3 hrs to keep them cool.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2019/02/18/tesla-model-x-crashes-burns-fremont/

[DougSpindler]

  This allows us to buy electricity at a cheaper rate not only for our car but our entire house.  If we did not have an EV car our electric bill would be $35 to $75 more per month.

Far out!
California really is greenwashed fairy LA LA land.  I can see why my mate is desperate to get out the place!
Not only do people have to subsidize someone elses car, they have to subsidize their living expenses as well!

What sort of fked up thinking is that??

Just goes to show the inconsistency of the green mentality that dosen't know what they want.  I was just reading a discussion where the local green zealots were whining that people with solar panels should pay more for the power they do use or a monthly additional charge because it's not fair to the people that don't have them to have to pay more for the upkeep of the poles and wires.

Imagine if they had to pay more towards other people power bills when they were already paying towards the cars they Drove.
There would be a riot and for once, Rightfully so. 

I thought our Pollies and policy makers had some stupid ideas but that takes the cake!

Well wait a minute, it even gets better.  If you install solar panel on your roof our government gives us a 30% tax credit.  Get why Tesla/Solar City and all of the other companies want to sell solar in California?  Tesla solar gave me a quote of $35,000 for solar on my home.  And my fellow tax payers get the privilege of paying the $10,500 of that bill. 

Did I buy?  Of course not.  That $35,000 would cost me around $9,000 if I purchased the panels and hired a contractor to install.

[Kjelt]

Most noise from ICEs these days are from the tires icw the road quality.
How I know? I live in the south of the Netherlands and I occasionally travel to the south into Belgium.
The roads there date from WW2, concrete platters with a tiny amount of asphalt on it.

If I drive 130km/h (80 mph) in the Netherlands I can listen to the radio at volume setting 12 without issue.
When I cross the border I have to slow down to 120km/h (75mph) I have to put the radio to setting 22 and still have issues listening.
Now I did not compare both settings with a dB meter but my guess is that it is easy twice the volume.

[DougSpindler]

Most noise from ICEs these days are from the tires icw the road quality.
How I know? I live in the south of the Netherlands and I occasionally travel to the south into Belgium.
The roads there date from WW2, concrete platters with a tiny amount of asphalt on it.

If I drive 130km/h (80 mph) in the Netherlands I can listen to the radio at volume setting 12 without issue.
When I cross the border I have to slow down to 120km/h (75mph) I have to put the radio to setting 22 and still have issues listening.
Now I did not compare both settings with a dB meter but my guess is that it is easy twice the volume.

It would be interesting to see how much your mileage drops when you are on the Belgium roads due to louder tire noise.

[nctnico]

It is more complicated than that. First you need to figure out what causes more losses: friction or noise and whether a low friction tyre makes more or less noise.

[Kjelt]

It would be interesting to see how much your mileage drops when you are on the Belgium roads due to louder tire noise.

Probably evens out due to the speed drop.
Anyway the petrol is 25 cents cheaper per liter in Belgium almost pays off the trip.

[DougSpindler]

It is more complicated than that. First you need to figure out what causes more losses: friction or noise and whether a low friction tyre makes more or less noise.

What you are saying makes no sense.  The friction is what is causing the the road noise.  Use some critical thinking skills.  If there weren’t any friction there would be no road noise but then again the car would not move either.  Road noise like the heat an ICE engine or EV motor generates is wasted energy.  If the road noise from the tires and road is louder it means more energy is being wasted to make the noise.

[nctnico]

It is more complicated than that. First you need to figure out what causes more losses: friction or noise and whether a low friction tyre makes more or less noise.

What you are saying makes no sense.  The friction is what is causing the the road noise.  Use some critical thinking skills.  If there weren’t any friction there would be no road noise but then again the car would not move either.  Road noise like the heat an ICE engine or EV motor generates is wasted energy.  If the road noise from the tires and road is louder it means more energy is being wasted to make the noise.

Sorry but your underbelly doesn't do critical thinking very well. My brain however works perfectly fine when it comes to critical thinking and knows that you can't make such bold statements without looking up the numbers first. For example compare the Michelin Energy saver 175/65 R15 84 H and 175/65 R15 88 H. Same size, same noise level but a different fuel consumption.

[coppice]

It is more complicated than that. First you need to figure out what causes more losses: friction or noise and whether a low friction tyre makes more or less noise.

What you are saying makes no sense.  The friction is what is causing the the road noise.  Use some critical thinking skills.  If there weren’t any friction there would be no road noise but then again the car would not move either.  Road noise like the heat an ICE engine or EV motor generates is wasted energy.  If the road noise from the tires and road is louder it means more energy is being wasted to make the noise.

Vehicle efficiency has almost nothing to do with noise. People get confused by the hundred of watts coming out of a hi-fi amp, ignoring that speakers are extremely inefficient,. A 100W audio amp probably only results in a watt or two of acoustic output from the speaker. It only takes a few watts of acoustic output from a car to make it quite loud, but those few watts are a drop in the ocean of the car's energy consumption. Tyres come with both acoustic and efficiency ratings these days, and the ones I've looked at do not have a close correlation between quietness and efficiency.

[gildasd]

It is more complicated than that. First you need to figure out what causes more losses: friction or noise and whether a low friction tyre makes more or less noise.

What you are saying makes no sense.  The friction is what is causing the the road noise.  Use some critical thinking skills.  If there weren’t any friction there would be no road noise but then again the car would not move either.  Road noise like the heat an ICE engine or EV motor generates is wasted energy.  If the road noise from the tires and road is louder it means more energy is being wasted to make the noise.

Softer tyres make less noise and have more rolling resistance than harder and noisier ones.
On my Citroën C4, with my usage and driving style, soft and quiet winter tyres use about 0.25 to 0.5 L diesel more per 100km than hard summer ones.

[DougSpindler]

What you are saying makes no sense.  The friction is what is causing the the road noise.  Use some critical thinking skills.  If there weren’t any friction there would be no road noise but then again the car would not move either.  Road noise like the heat an ICE engine or EV motor generates is wasted energy.  If the road noise from the tires and road is louder it means more energy is being wasted to make the noise.

Softer tyres make less noise and have more rolling resistance than harder and noisier ones.
On my Citroën C4, with my usage and driving style, soft and quiet winter tyres use about 0.25 to 0.5 L diesel more per 100km than hard summer ones.
[/quote]

Interesting thank for sharing.

[george80]

I think we have debunked the quieter and smoother EV fantasy Bullshit at least.

I saw an interesting article as to the cost of charging Tesla's going up here and apparently in the states.

https://www.motoring.com.au/tesla-increases-australian-charging-prices-by-one-third-116594/

I found this excerpt particularly interesting and telling:

In a leaked email to Tesla employees, founder Elon Musk explained the car-maker was struggling to develop its pure-electric cars as cheaply as a conventional car – and that resulted in a vehicle “too expensive for most people”.

Well hardly any news flash there BUT, The Model 3 was supposed to be exactly that, The firt EV to be able to come near regular car pricing. That has proven  to be more pure and utter Tesla/ Musk lies.

To help lower overheads and reduce the cost of its new core car, the Model 3, Musk said 3000 of its workers must go.

Well I'm not an economist but reducing overheads does not in fact allow the cost price of a vehicle to become cheaper. Even if it did, the place would have to be stupidly excessive in it's overheads to have any effect on the price of the vehicles in the volume they are producing and it would not have any bearing what so ever on the cost of components.

To me this sounds more like a Muskesq admission they haven't got a hope in hell of making the $30KI model 3 and if they do it will be back to loosing money which he has well painted himself into a corner on and can't afford to do..... but I predict they WILL go back to negative numbers anyway.

It might explain the whole Model 3 Bullshit of being a $30K car as it's been so heavily promoted.  In fact if I remember correctly, There has never been one sold yet under $47K out the door and the $30K price tag is again just pure Musk/ Tesla lies. There hasn't even been a $30K model on the price list for over 6 Months now showing even that was a fantasy Tesla couldn't spin doctor. 

If they are laying off the workforce, again, who the hell is going to build the things?  They are already well known amoungst the realists and owners for having totally crap fit and finish among other problems and I can't see where having less workers is going to make for a better product given they  are already struggling to make production targets anyway.  Although that might be soon slowing as stockpiles of the things keep mounting up.

Musk is also in trouble again with the SEC over more fraudulent Tweets and breaching his previous settlement conditions over the $420  private share Lie.

Said it before and I'll say it again, Tesla will be gone in 5 ( now 4) years tops.  Ihave also asked for the screaming fanbois who go into melt down over that statement to explain to me why in FINANCIAL reasons why that won't ( in their cult following opinion) why that won't happen and what are the FINANCIAL reasons tesla will still be around.

So far the only financial based answer I have got about 6 Months ago was " every new company has to loose money".
Yeah, right.  You mean a 10 Yo company..... 

Can't wait to see how they finish up this year. if it's a full year of profits, spin doctored or otherwise, I'll be amazed but even if there is, with 3 years to go and an avalanche of new EV's to come, it will be a miracle if they are still around at the end of my prediction.
Be a bigger miracle if Musk is still with the company and not sacked, barred from holding a board position on any company or not locked up.
Think If I were him I'd also be looking at having some bodyguards if he doesn't already.

[george80]

Looking at the article I linked to above, the true fallacy of EV's being cheaper to run comes out:

From this week, the pioneering electric car-maker from California will increase the average price of charging at any of its Australian and New Zealand supercharger stations from $0.35 per kWh to $0.42 per kWh, or 20 per cent.

In reality, the price hikes mean it will cost an additional $5.25 to fully replenish a Tesla Model S with a 75kWh battery (claimed 490km range), or $31.50.

Now here is where the truth comes out and the fantasy ends by their own admission.

Tesla currently offers some owners 400kWh of annual credits, depending on when their cars were purchased. That equates to roughly 1600km worth of range.

So we have gone from 75 Kwh of power equaling 490 KM of range to 100 Kwh  giving 400 KM of range. That a big difference and a far more real world number going by what is reported on the tesla Fan boi sites.  For those that believe or more over, want to believe the tesla hyped figures over real world numbers posted by users, Go argue with the people driving them that their numbers are wrong because they don't match Teslas.
In this case though, the lower numbers ARE teslas.

Now with super charging 100KW that will take you 400Kw when you are away from home will cost you $42.

Average fuel price here atm is $1.30L and it's been well below that for the last month or so but well use current price to compare current supercharging price.
For $42 you could buy 32L of fuel.  For that to take you 400 Km you would have to be getting..... 8 L per 100Km.

So what other economy cars could you get to match the same running costs?

Well with a bit of careful driving, you could run one of these for the same cost:




The Raptor has a claimed 8.2L/100km fuel-consumption figure (combined cycle). It has an 80-litre fuel tank.   

Of course if that wasn't your style, Then there is a plethora of other vehicles available as well like:

Subaru Forrester, 7.4 L/100
Audi A3,    4.9
Toyota Prado,   8.0
Hyuandi Elantra  7.0
Ford Focus  6.4
Toyota camry  7.8
Holden Commodore  7.6

And so the Looong list of Ic vehicles goes on and as can be seen, the cherry picking I have done is for the not so economical and larger vehicles rather than the plentiful range available that are in the 4  L / 100 range.

But Wait!
I can hear the greenwashed all screaming " But charging at home is only .30C kwh.
So the numbers on that would mean you have to get about 6 L / 100 to match the at home charging cost.
Not a problem. PLENTY of cars can do that so again, the EV's are still NOT cheaper than IC's in a lot of cases.

There is a great irony to me though in worrying about the economy of a $130K+ car.  If you can afford the car and the insurance, are you really such a miser you'd give a flying wether the thing cost $2 or 25 to run the thing 100km?  I sure wouldn't be then again, I'm not desperate to prove how wonderful ev's are or high on the green koolaide like so many are these days because they are so desperate for a cause to believe in and champion.

Yes, EVs -MAY- be cheaper to run is SOME places but certainly not all and the blanket statement they are is just another crock of greenwasing and exaggeration designed as usual to push the cause of the green cult with as little attention to truth and fact as can be gotten away with... Or not.


Cue fanbois and green evangilists...... 

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Softer tyres make less noise and have more rolling resistance than harder and noisier ones.

Exactly.

[DougSpindler]

Another artificial cost savings for EV owners in California/PG&E customers is the special EV electrical rate we can request.  Just did a comparison of last year’s electrical usage and cost.  In my case by owning an EV my electricity bill is 26% less.  This includes car charging and usage in the rest of the house.

When one buys an EV in California not only do we get over $10,000 in. Cas rebates and tax credits, we also save 26% on electricity costs and we get (in some places) free charging. 

Isn’t America wonderful?  Drive an EV and your fellow tax payeres subsidize the purchase and operational costs of my EV.  And they pay for just ov r a quarter of my electricty bill. This is capatalism at it’s best.

[mtdoc]

Yep. Mainstream.

European Car of the Year 2019: Jaguar I-Pace

This is the first Jaguar to win the award in the Coty's 55 years and a visibly delighted Ian Callum, Jaguar's director of design, received the award from jury president Frank Janssen.

"Wow, was that close or what," said Callum, "thank you very much. I don't understand why people make such a fuss over battery electric cars winning this award though; this is the future. It's a whole new Jaguar on a whole new platform and it's the most exciting car I've ever worked on."

[george80]

Yep. Mainstream.

That's great to hear!

Now electrics are run of the mill and nothing special, the green zealots can shut the hell up about them and trying to ram them down everyones throats.

[george80]

Tesla has been going into PR overdrive this last week or so.

Model Y is supposed to be unveiled next week.  Production is SUPPOSED to be in full swing next year. 
Heard that before!

On late promises, The $35K model 3 has been announced it will go into production after being hyped up 3 years ago.
Like the model T, is available  for the price in any colour you want as long as it's black and is a very stripped down version beyond even what a lot of economy run around cars feature.

Clear indication here is Tesla has well cleared their backlog orders for the optioned up, longer range cars and all they are left with is those holding out for the cheap, advertised version. The other thing is they can probably see the storm on the horizon with the new models other makers are about to rain down on the EV market and have to have something that will compete in some way with the likes of Hyundai, kia and a swag of others. Even so, For the money the features on the $35K ( -IF- you can actually get one for that) version are pretty basic and they are obviously depending heavily on people optioning the things up which will be software at low/ no cost to make any decent bucks out the things.

They have also announced the SUV is to be unveiled this year. Given that, should be available for Purchase in about 3 years time. Maybe.  Maybe if they are still around that is.
This, if it actually makes it to production will be a VERY interesting exercise in marketing.
Looking like something of a Modern version of what you would expect to see " The A team" Commandos jump out of lead by Mr. T brandishing a .50 cal BMG, it will be a real test of Tesla Loyalty.

Will people with the money and the brains ( in most cases to aquire it) want to roll up to places looking like they are ready to go fight or just come back from Fighting a war and put up with the inevitable " Wanker" association of driving such a thing?
Will people whom seem to be significantly green motivated go for something that in effect goes against what a lot of them complain about in IC's being overly large, heavy, using too much energy and resources etc?  It really does go against the small, light , economical mindset of a lot of the EV proponents and greenwashed so it's a risk in the marketing Dept.

There is also the competition with Rivian and the best selling forever F-150 Electric. That alone will be a tough competitor no matter what it's actually like The brand loyalty will be far greater than even Tesla's.

That said, If anyone can pull this off it will be the cult of Tesla and it's loyal ( and blind) deciples.

In another what I feel VERY bold move and perhaps also telling of the companies Financial concerns is the closing of many of it's showrooms and making the vehicles an online order only.
While people buy everything online these days I'm pretty confident the amount of onlie purchases for a Min of $35K would be a small percentage point of all online sales.  Again if anyone can pull this off it will be tesla but I think it will put an amount of people off none the less. I bet tesla think it will too but the question is how much will lost sales cost as against keeping the showroom doors open and the stores staffed? They would have the numbers to see what the showrooms generate but how many look at a car first and then order online is a different thing.

There are ways around this though. I have seen Tesla's shown in shopping centres 3 times now and although the cost of doing these display  is not cheap, I'll bet it's cheaper than the costs involved in having a showroom. There is also the advantage of putting the things in front of people who would have never  gone out their way or think of visiting a showroom..... There only being a few in Oz anyway.
Might be a clever stragegy IF diverting the marketing funds in this way IS what they have in mind.  It's what I'd do so that probably means Tesla won't.


They have also announced BIG price drops on their other models. Clearly a marketing strategy a company with sufficent orders for their product does not do. In marketing terms this is also a risky move because if you cut your Profit 50% , your sales have to double to keep the same profit as you had before and not go backwards. I don't know what the price drops are as a percentage of their margins but it would seem they WILL bite into them pretty substantially. Again this is an interesting and in reality , worrying strategy. A FAR more economical bait For tesla particularly to throw out there would have been Free up grades and going for increasing the $$ value rather than decreasing the price.  Value added is minimal cost and profit loss. Direct  price discounts are expensive in Comparison.

Clearly tesla is worried about sticker cost when competing with other brands and have probably figured features alone aren't going to get the deal over the line.

Another announcement designed to fly the company flag and keep the fanbois placated superchargers going to 350Kw. Obviously to keep up with the Euros on paper as no tesla can charge at this rate and it seems likely given battery chemistry and vehicle weight considerations there won't be  one that can past the current slated projects.

All these price reductions and annoncements that are a typical plot of " Forget how we failed, look at what we are going to do next" all point to a company that is finding it tougher to shift it's products.  The idea of Nominating the model Y so close on the back of the 3 when it's just said it will finally be available in the 35K version and -saying-  it will not be a lot more expensive is questionable as well. IMHO it would have been much better to put out something closer to the X and S which are aging vehicles that something that has a lot of potential to take sales away from the one you just got sorted production wise.
Going to be hard for them to compete on anything price wise so working on the niche offerings would have I think been a better strategy. There are a lot of S/X competitors coming onto the market so going into sales battle with products a lot closer to 10 years old than 3 is not going to be an easy sell at all.

I have been of the position for a while TEsla will be gone in now 4 years. I stand by that with the clarification that it will be gone as it is now being a seperate company. On further thought I still believe they WILL go tits up but there is also the possibility they may be bought out by another manufacturer. They may continue the brand name as that too would be wise given the brand loyalty so unless they screw up big time and the new owner wants to distance themselves, they may still be called Tesla but it won't be the Elon wet dream it is now.

Even Mr. smoke, mirrors and Bullshit Musk is saying a 1st quarter profit is questionable which unsurprisingly flies well in the face of what he has been adamant about before in that Tesla would be profitable from here on in. Clearly they are pushing REAL hard to make that happen.  The model Y announcement will be strategically times to pull in some deposits which will bolster the bottom line as Tesla is so well know for using money that does not belong to them to fudge the books.

Of course these major announcements are one shot and while you can keep the fanboi sites happy with crap PR stunt announcements like " Dog mode" has been released for it's cars ( how entirely appropriate although a critical look would tell you  they all leave that with the factory in many parts of the vehicle)  They soon fall back into the ho hum for the mainstream media who are going to go back asking those inconvenient questions that never have answers that provide reassurance to the non Muskaide drinkers.

Of course this is all on the sales side. There are also other potential problems with musk poking the Tiger with a stick in the SEC and the upcoming bond and loan repayments. They have just ponyied up nearly a Billion, not out of the woods yet by a very long shot. If revenu doesn't come in as they hope, it will be back to the market to get more capitol and given this is something musk has repeatedly said they won't have to do, getting the funds will not be easy or cheap and will cause the share price to tank further.

4 years and counting down.

[barbeque]

Petro-Canada, one of our national gas chains, is putting 50+ level-3 fast chargers "across the country."

They already have a test one set up. No word on price or placement yet, but I'd bet it will be on stations along the Trans-Canada highway.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/petro-canada-to-add-more-than-50-fast-charging-ev-stations-from-coast-to-coast

Even with the range reduction when it gets cold in Canada, most of the cars on offer let you turn on the cabin heater remotely so it's toasty warm when you get in, which is really nice! It's probably no worse on economy than when my neighbour remote-starts and leaves their SUV idling in the driveway for an hour every morning to warm it up.

[DougSpindler]

When it comes fue efficiency in cars, regardless of the fuel, gas, diesel, battery or hydrogen about one quarter is lost as heat and sound to overcome rolling resistance and the friction between the road and the tires.

https://youtu.be/88KuNmjL_LE