Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 167946 times)

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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3625 on: March 08, 2019, 10:20:43 am »
I'm not going to read yet another rant full of exaggeration and lies. Fact is we do need to reduce our emmissions and EV's done right will be more efficient.
Replace efficient with effective and you are demonstratebly wrong in many parts of the world because the electricity generation produces a lot of CO2. Just compare carbon emissions and you'll have your answer. EVs don't save as much CO2 as they would like us to believe. In China for example the net effect of an EV is negative compared to about any ICE. In Europe an efficient hybrid ICE (Toyota Prius for example which does better than 20km/l in real driving conditions) can beat an EV in most countries. In many countries an EV can be beaten by a reasonably efficient ICE.


From: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920916307933 (writtin in October 2018 so fairly recent)

The Dutch government is spending over 700 million euros on tax incentives for EVs. That comes down to 1700 euro per metric ton of CO2. This while the emission rights for one ton of CO2 cost somewhere in the ballpark of 20 euro. What also shouldn't be ignored is that in denser populated areas (no, not city centers but suburbs) people can't charge their EVs at home because they don't have a driveway and even if people have a drive way it will only fit one car. However public charging is going to be expensive which makes EVs unaffordable for most people. So the working man is paying to get technology mainstream which they never will be able to afford. The Dutch politicians are starting to see the light and already put a cap on tax incentives for EVs. The Netherlands is a relatively wealthy country. How are they going to switch to EVs in lesser developed countries? They won't. Even Italy which is the third economy of the EU has no chargin infrastructure to speak of. EVs are hyped to be the solution to CO2 emissions but in reality they won't have much effect at all.

There are other solutions in the making like 3rd generation bio-fuels and hydrogen which don't have the issues EVs have because the cost of the infrastructure is much lower and the cars work like we are used to. No long waits for charging, no messing with cables, no range issues and no looking for charging stations. You even admit this yourself: an EV isn't a replacement for the car you have because you won't use it to go on a holiday.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2019, 10:31:31 am by nctnico »
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Offline Simon

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3626 on: March 08, 2019, 10:39:12 am »
Sorry i make a statement and you tell me that if i change it i would be wrong. Err yea? is this all you have to be right now by putting words in peoples mouths? but then previously you have told me that statements I made agreeing with you were disagreeing with you because you don't care about any truth you just lie.

I already told you, based on YOUR figure of over 27% renewable generation and the fact that nuclear is also supposed to be low emmissions what is left at 60% not your 48% is a small portion of the total generation. So you still need to get your head around that before you tell me about any more graphs you found online
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3627 on: March 08, 2019, 10:50:12 am »
Efficiency is meaningless when it comes to CO2 reduction. What counts is input versus output. Electricity from fossil fuels isn't going away in the next decade so the effectiveness of EVs is next to nothing while ICEs keep getting more efficient due to better hybrid systems and more fossil fuel get replaced with bio-fuel. In a sense EVs will continue to lag behind.

Soon new cars sold in the EU may not produce more than 90 grams/CO2 per km on average. The car manufacturers have three options: make EVs, make hydrogen cars or make their ICE cars more efficient. What do you think will happen? I'm quite sure they won't be able to sell enough EVs.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2019, 11:05:05 am by nctnico »
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Offline Simon

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3628 on: March 08, 2019, 10:55:36 am »
Oh so the world will be saved by bio fuels? are you the one who gets to decide who lives and who we shoot because we need the land that makes their food for bio fuels? We don't have the land for bio fuels and when they did start to do it food prices rose over competition about who got tho crop, mouths or engines.

The UK is already supplied by less that 50% fossil fuel electricity generation so I don't know why you think it's here to stay. We are building another nuclear plant (god help us) and coal is no longer used. We only use coal when renewables drop off. Again this government data is on gridwatch.co.uk. As always you pedal false facts and exagerate.
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3629 on: March 08, 2019, 11:10:05 am »
Oh so the world will be saved by bio fuels? are you the one who gets to decide who lives and who we shoot because we need the land that makes their food for bio fuels?
Read about 3rd generation bio-fuels first before making outdated comments. These are close to going full production. Instead of growing crops specific for fuel production the 3rd generation bio-fuels are made from the parts of the plants that are not edible. This means that fuel and food production go hand in hand. The EU is also looking at this; there are bans in the making on bio-fuels made from palm oil. These bans will come in effect in the next 2 years IIRC.

So far bio-fuels have been saving a lot more CO2 than EVs.
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Online Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3630 on: March 08, 2019, 11:20:22 am »
The bans are palm oil specific, they'll just switch to some other oil crop.

Nothing scalable we have now or in the near future will approach arable land yields or economic efficiency for biofuel, not by an order of magnitude. Yes, farm waste can supply a tiny percentage of what is now supplied by palm oil relatively cheaply, but for the rest we have no alternative but growing crops on arable lands in competition with food crops and forests.

Unless there is some huge technological advance the world will just have to keep pretending and lying that biofuels aren't destroying nature far faster than fossil fuel.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2019, 11:25:35 am by Marco »
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3631 on: March 08, 2019, 11:33:03 am »
The bans are palm oil specific, they'll just switch to some other oil crop.

Nothing scalable we have now or in the near future will approach arable land yields or economic efficiency for biofuel, not by an order of magnitude.
That is not true. Our 'own' DSM is one of the companies involved in getting the 3rd generation bio-fuels going and have industrial scale factories up&running. They are at or very near building more factories. Read this article to get up-to-date with the actual state of next generation bio-fuels: http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15344/zero-to-10-million-in-5-years. The huge technological advance you write about has been made.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2019, 11:36:35 am by nctnico »
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Online Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3632 on: March 08, 2019, 12:18:00 pm »
Yes, farm waste can supply a tiny percentage of what is now supplied by palm oil relatively cheaply, but for the rest we have no alternative but growing crops on arable lands in competition with food crops and forests.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3633 on: March 08, 2019, 12:43:26 pm »
Yes, farm waste can supply a tiny percentage of what is now supplied by palm oil relatively cheaply, but for the rest we have no alternative but growing crops on arable lands in competition with food crops and forests.
You are misunderstanding. I'm not talking about cow & pig sh*t. From many crops we grow (for example: weat, soy, corn, rice, potatoes, etc) we only eat a small part. This isn't very efficient because you have to grow a relatively large plant of which you only use a small part. Making fuel from the part that doesn't get eaten is just a bonus. Everyone has got to eat so food needs to be grown one way or another. And the potential is huge. I did some crude back-of-the-envelope calculations on POET-DSM's conversion rate numbers and you can almost replace fossil fuels entirely with 3rd generation bio-fuels without needing extra land to grow crops. The EPA estimates the US ethanol production can be doubled just because of the 3rd generation bio-fuels (this is billions of US gallons) without needing extra land. An added bonus is that farmers will have more income from growing the same amount of plants. This is good because agriculture will need to switch to (likely) more expensive fertilizer which isn't made from fossil fuels. Please read more about it because these 3rd generation bio-fuels hold the key to solving multiple problems in one go. In my opinion it is a very elegant and ultimately low-tech solution (brew beer from plants and distill it).
« Last Edit: March 08, 2019, 01:34:58 pm by nctnico »
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Online NiHaoMike

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3634 on: March 08, 2019, 02:08:44 pm »
Should we invest before knowing if it will even work?
Why wouldn't it work? It's extremely simple technology with little to go wrong.
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3635 on: March 08, 2019, 02:29:20 pm »
According to this graph electricity is even more expensive in the UK compared to the Netherlands:
<snip>
From: http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/
That website looks like a pro-oil blog, or at least not particularly reliable, so I wouldn't trust that graph.
It is a random pick from Google which at least had some recent data. There are probably other (even more recent) graphs out there but I doubt they will show something different.
If your standard is a random pick from the internet you can find a graph that proves anything you want. Even if something is technically correct it can still be just as misleading as a lie. (It might be the truth, noting but the truth, but not quite the whole truth).
Ofcourse I check if there is a valid source, the data is consistent with other sources and the data is recent. The graph I linked to earlier met all those criteria. That should go without saying. There is no use to show & link to numbers which cannot be backed up with solid statistics. Again, feel free to contest the validity of the data with another source. I'm very confident it will say the same because the graph is consistent with other data (in this case electricity prices across Europe) I have seen elsewhere. It is a random pick in a sense that it depends on what Google decides to put in the first 100 results when looking for a graph.
Yes, that should go without saying. But when I check where the graph comes from to see if I can trust it all I see is that it is from some blog. You might know it is correct (and it very well might be), but others likely do not know that, and have to rely on the authority of the source to judge the correctness.

Why not link directly to the actual source, makes it much easier to tell if it is legit or not:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/...
Not that we should blindly trust anything that the governments are putting out, but it is far more reliable than some random blog post which might just be plain advertising.

Anyway, couldn't help to notice that (as they note in the blog post):
"High nuclear countries France, Sweden and Finland have among the lowest industrial and domestic electricity prices."
So much for nuclear power being too expensive...
« Last Edit: March 08, 2019, 02:34:19 pm by apis »
 
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Online Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3636 on: March 08, 2019, 02:46:39 pm »
I did some crude back-of-the-envelope calculations on POET-DSM's conversion rate numbers and you can almost replace fossil fuels entirely with 3rd generation bio-fuels without needing extra land to grow crops.

That's 70 gallons per ton (presumably of dry weight). Here's a paper which did the numbers on the potential for bioethanol with a yield in the range of 288–447l per ton, which is in the same range. Their envelope showed a total of 64 GL, which is an order of magnitude less than even plain gasoline usage in the US ... let alone the rest of fossil fuel consumption.

On a dry weight and energy basis we actually consume a pretty substantial part of the plant. Starch, protein and oil are a lot more energy dense than water.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3637 on: March 08, 2019, 03:20:12 pm »
This paper (from 2003) claims a percentage of 32%. With the efficient ICE hybrids available nowadays this number can be much higher. It has to come from both sides: reducing fuel consumption on one hand and switching to renewables on the other.
For stationary electricity generation nuclear is a much better option.
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Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3638 on: March 08, 2019, 03:43:51 pm »


All the mAh/g and Wh/kg figures in the video are wrong...
« Last Edit: March 08, 2019, 04:06:52 pm by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3639 on: March 08, 2019, 06:28:49 pm »

Anyway, couldn't help to notice that (as they note in the blog post):
"High nuclear countries France, Sweden and Finland have among the lowest industrial and domestic electricity prices."
So much for nuclear power being too expensive...

The new plant they are building here is promised a higher wholesale price than what is paid now. The project is late, will be late and the price is constantly increasing. Apparently renewables would be half the price so money left for storage, that was before they anounced the price was going up.

In principle nuclear looks good, the problem i have with nuclear is people. People in power are usually ignorant of scientific and engineering matters and they always want to make more money. That is a recipe for disaster. The disposal of the waste is also a problem as the government has to get involved with planning permissions and no government wants to upset voters so the can is kicked down the road.
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Offline Simon

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3640 on: March 08, 2019, 06:30:08 pm »


All the mAh/g and Wh/kg figures in the video are wrong...

prove it! you are not a reliable source, back you statements up or don't post!
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Offline george80

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3641 on: March 08, 2019, 06:32:04 pm »
I'm not going to read yet another rant full of exaggeration and lies.

It's not the exaggeration and lies you are worried about, I have demonstrated you have told more than enough of those yourself.

What worries and upsets you and the rest of the Green Koolaide Drinking cult is Facts and the truth.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3642 on: March 08, 2019, 06:41:38 pm »

Anyway, couldn't help to notice that (as they note in the blog post):
"High nuclear countries France, Sweden and Finland have among the lowest industrial and domestic electricity prices."
So much for nuclear power being too expensive...
The new plant they are building here is promised a higher wholesale price than what is paid now. The project is late, will be late and the price is constantly increasing. Apparently renewables would be half the price so money left for storage, that was before they anounced the price was going up.
The increased price of the Hinkley plant is due to pure stupidity of the civil servants in the UK dealing with EDF. Half of the price is interest at an insane rate. And renewables like sun & wind aren't very cheap if you include storage. Electricity from a wind turbine costs around 4 eurocents to generate. Storing the electricity in a battery increases the price per kWh at least 5 to 20 times.
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Offline Simon

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3643 on: March 08, 2019, 06:42:49 pm »
i don't have a problem with the truth, and i don't right extensive posts that are full of lies and twist what people say neither will I read such ramblings, I have better things to do. I am happy to be corrected. Even when i have said that i accept what one of your crowd say the post is quoted saying "see told you you would not beleive me" when i say no such thing.
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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3644 on: March 08, 2019, 06:46:35 pm »

 Electricity from a wind turbine costs around 4 eurocents to generate. Storing the electricity in a battery increases the price per kWh at least 5 to 20 times.

Bullshit!

i already gave you my battery costs and told you that at 14p/KWh my battery breaks even. 14/4 = 3.5, no 20 times, you are a proven liar, and i am talking about a home installed system, not an industrial scale system. How much was the one tesla installed in Australia?

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Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3645 on: March 08, 2019, 06:56:16 pm »
How representative in statistics is n=1 ?
IMO you really need to lookup the average numbers to be able to have a decent discussion.
Also the figures could vary wildly between countries.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3646 on: March 08, 2019, 07:00:40 pm »

 Electricity from a wind turbine costs around 4 eurocents to generate. Storing the electricity in a battery increases the price per kWh at least 5 to 20 times.

i already gave you my battery costs and told you that at 14p/KWh my battery breaks even. 14/4 = 3.5, no 20 times, you are a proven liar, and i am talking about a home installed system, not an industrial scale system. How much was the one tesla installed in Australia?
I saw the numbers you quoted earlier but I'm finding your 5000 cycle lifetime very optimistic especially given the price. I'm wondering what cells your battery is using and what kind of BMS. BTW one of my customers is a high-end Li-ion battery pack manufacturer so I'm not oblivious to what is available and what is not. The Tesla powerwall sits at 30 eurocent per kWh when calculating for 2000 cycles.

But perhaps you should refrain from the name calling. It must be a real joy working with you at work if every question they ask you results in a Gille de la tourette attaque from your side...  :palm:
« Last Edit: March 08, 2019, 07:02:19 pm by nctnico »
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Offline Simon

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3647 on: March 08, 2019, 07:00:56 pm »
i can't see it being 20 times, he made the statement with a sample on n=0! i at least have some experience. and actually it was 12p/KWh that made my system break even, when it went to 14p i made £500! My system was at the time 7.2KWh, that is a tiny capacity for a 3.7KW inverter, no matter how many batteries I have the battery management system and the inverter are a constant so the more batteries there are the less it is so the figure for me is 3 or less, I can't beleive 20 times, 5 maybe for an incompetent beurocrat but 20 times is a pure lie. He made the statement, he can back it up!
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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3648 on: March 08, 2019, 07:01:56 pm »

 Electricity from a wind turbine costs around 4 eurocents to generate. Storing the electricity in a battery increases the price per kWh at least 5 to 20 times.

Bullshit!

i already gave you my battery costs and told you that at 14p/KWh my battery breaks even. 14/4 = 3.5, no 20 times, you are a proven liar, and i am talking about a home installed system, not an industrial scale system. How much was the one tesla installed in Australia?
I saw the numbers you quoted earlier but I'm finding your 5000 cycle lifetime very optimistic especially given the price. I'm wondering what cells your battery is using and what kind of BMS. BTW one of my customers is a high-end Li-ion battery pack manufacturer so I'm not oblivious to what is available and what is not. The Tesla powerwall sits at 30 eurocent per kWh when calculating for 2000 cycles.

But perhaps you should refrain from the name calling. It must be a real joy working with you at work...  :palm:

And the capacity of the power wall is?
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Offline george80

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3649 on: March 08, 2019, 07:03:08 pm »

In principle nuclear looks good, the problem i have with nuclear is people. People in power are usually ignorant of scientific and engineering matters and they always want to make more money. That is a recipe for disaster. The disposal of the waste is also a problem as the government has to get involved with planning permissions and no government wants to upset voters so the can is kicked down the road.

On this We FULLY agree.

Nuke should be banned the world over.  May as well give kids a can of petrol and a box of matches to go play with in their bedrooms.

The minute you bring up accidents with the pro nuke crowd the first defense is " Oh but with the new reactors they can't have the problems the old ones did".
Great, but did you shut down all the old reactors that you know DO have a design Flaw?  No. What happens is they do a few bandaid patchups that still leave the throbbing wound underneath and license the things for another 20 years beyond their  design life.

People go on about the emissions of coal and oil yet these things generate the most powerful, lethal, long lasting poisons known to man and everything on the planet  that there is NO solution for Disposal and they have the Audacity to call the things clean!

Even the flawed Tech in the things is not the greatest worry. The biggest danger is in the morons operating the things, Humans.
All the accidents so far both known and not so well known were caused by Human error.  Cost and corner cutting, failure to adhere to maintence schedules and procedures, wanting to make thing look better than they really were or impress higher ups or just plain ignorance in people thinking they knew better than what they did.  OF course so many of the things are known and recognised just to have been constructed in completely unsuitable locations that might make them cheaper to operate but are Highly Vulnerable to seismic activity, Flooding and other acts of nature that cannot be defended against.

And then after all this " Clean" power you have unimaginably dangerous Shit going out the back door or worst still. be stockpiled and no one knows WTF they are going to do to get rid of it.   OH yeah, the other great  nuke Story, In future these other Reactors that have been talked about for 30 years but still haven't been built will only produce rainbows and sunshine out the back end and all the unimaginably dangerous crap thats in leaking drums now and was dropped in the ocean will also be processed into more fresh air and clean water.

Yeah, my arse.

Coal, unreliables, oil or Burning puppies is better than the moronic risk of any type of Nuke generation.
NOTHING has the potential to wipe out and change life on earth as we know it than each and every Reactor out there.
That alone makes them the most idiotic choice for power generation that could ever be conceived.
 


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