Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 76577 times)

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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #50 on: December 30, 2017, 10:45:18 pm »
This greatly depends on how you calculate TCO and I assume these numbers only look at purchase price and maintenance costs during the first few years and not the entire usefull life of a car. If you calculate TCO over the first 100k km (the typical lease period over here) then the depreciation is a large chunk. If I take my own car as an example. It cost nearly 28k euro when new and when I bought it with around 140k km I paid 5k euro. That means that the previous owners paid over 16 cents per km for just the depreciation. I OTOH pay around 3 cents per km in depreciation. It is unclear how that equation works out for an EV. If a used EV is going to need a new battery pack it may be worth a negative number by the time the first owner is going to buy a new car.
When the original Prius came out I predicted a catastrophe. I was certain that within 10 years there would be piles of them in junkyards with nothing more than dead batteries which cost $10k at the time. Turns out I was wrong, the batteries in the Prius turned out to be very reliable, I know of multiple 1st gen models still running the original battery and replacement batteries have dropped down to around $2k. The battery replacement cost is a concern for pure electrics but I'm not going to be too quick to predict doom and gloom, the last time I did that I was wrong.
True but it is something to consider when purchasing a used EV. It would make life easier if there is some way to read the state of health of a battery pack. Unfortunately that technology is still under development. I had a similar issue when buying my current car. My previous cars had diesel engines and the last one suffered quite a few engine related issues common for that model. All in all modern diesels have become relatively unreliable beyond the first 150k km and expensive to repair so I didn't want to take the risk and bought a car which runs on gasoline. It is more expensive to run but I don't risk needing to spend several thousands on engine repairs which cannot be predicted. Just like a battery you can't see how far an engine is worn and what is about to fail from the outside. You can only go by looking at problems which happen often and choose to take the chance or not.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2017, 10:51:39 pm by nctnico »
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Offline SeanB

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #51 on: December 30, 2017, 11:10:01 pm »
High density housing will pretty much soon mean you will be doing some form of public transport, or uber or other such non metered taxi service, where the supplier will have the infrastructure to charge an EV in off peak periods, and thus you will not really need the personal vehicle but will time share. Here where there are long distances, the electric vehicle or hybrid is still a good match, as most people typically do up to 100km in a day maximum, and for longer rare trips you are frankly a lot better off renting a vehicle for that.

If I need to move something big I will just go to the Whynott service station 15km away from me, and rent a "Whynott Rent a Bakkie" for a hourly rate or daily rate. No associated costs with depreciation, servicing, insurance and all you have is the well used Toyota/ Isuzu or Nissan with a full tank of fuel, and when you are finished you drive it back, fill up again at the garage, park it literally 5m away from the pump, go pay with your credit card and away you go. Rent for a month a year and still come out ahead on a rental vehicle.

That's very much a fantasy. Yes, you may not need a car to commute to work everyday if the public transport works because you live in the middle of a large city and have a good paying job (so you can afford renting  the car occasionally too).  But we are far from public transport being ubiquitous, going everywhere where needed (and not only where there are enough paying clients to make it profitable) and it still doesn't cover long distance travel.

Using "Uber" or renting a car works great in theory - if you are rich enough to be able to afford it. I suggest you visit e.g. one of the Parisian suburbs (which I live some 40minutes from) and tell the people there they should get rid of their old polluting cars and call a taxi/Uber or rent a car. These suburbs or "banlieues" are usually full of blocks of flats, being typically homes of low income families.

Only few of these suburbs are served by train/public transport, so the car is often the only option how to actually get the 10-20km to work. There is also little to no infrastructure there (schools, hospitals, shopping, etc., certainly no car rental or even self-service car sharing - that is only downtown), so again, without a car you are screwed. And most people living in the blocks of flats there are low wage laborers (if they have work at all), so very ill suited to renting a car or taking a taxi to work every day. I guess you haven't checked how much would that actually cost you if you had to take e.g. a 10km commute every day by calling a taxi (or Uber).
The low wage workers around these parts have figured out how to avoid needing the cost of owning multiple cars per household, they ride share with other employees to the work site. Each morning you see the planned pickups occurring on their sharp little schedules, stopping no more than a few seconds for the waiting worker before heading off again. Sharing all the costs of fuel, parking, etc makes it much more affordable while still retaining most of the benefits of a direct journey at the required time.

Through my life I've car pooled, caught public transport, used the company bus, walked, cycled, and combined all of those travel modes in various combinations to get to and from work. Not everyone can access public transport but it sure is convenient (and usually cheap) when you can, thats all part of the decision making which should be going in to deciding where to live and work. I wouldn't want to live in an environment where I'm dependent on having a car but some people are happy to choose that for their own reasons.

The vast majority of the people here in South Africa use public transport, with relatively few being able to afford to either own or run a vehicle, unless they are in the small section that is the middle class. The average commute for them can be 2 different taxis every day to work and another 2 in the afternoon, and there are a good number who wake up, catch a minibus taxi to a train station, catch a 2 hour train to a hub and then catch another taxi to work. Some of the people i work with wake up each morning at 4AM to catch a 4H30 train, then get to the city at 7AM and walk to work, and in the afternoon they only get home after 7PM. Others do a one way trip of 50km plus to work in a minibus taxi every day. they will never be able to afford a car, though the children might be able to do so one day, and will often be there to drop off the parents in a lift club if they can make it to the vanishing middle class.

Just remember the world is not all composed of the EU or USA, the vast majoritory of people will never ever be able to afford a vehicle of their own, and in most cases they will never travel in a vehicle that is not also moving 10 others or more as well.
 
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Offline jonovid

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #52 on: December 31, 2017, 12:43:40 am »
mainstream? probably not with today's technology,  however as a cheap runabout shopping trolley.
when cheap electric cars  get recycled as an aluminium can on wheels.
a $15.000 disposable electric production car. that has
less automation = millennials, need to learn how to drive a car, 
no power steering, no power windows ,less doors less glass   
a 3 door hatchback, no in car entertainment system. that's an extra.
lower gearing 95kmh max speed. =  less powerful motors. 80 km range. its a four seat shopping trolley.

tesla designs are too up market.  to expensive to be mainstream.
 if you can afford a tesla you can also afford a 4x4 suv with towing capacity.
 life is about the long weekend down under.  ;D
Hobby of evil genius      basic knowledge of electronics
 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #53 on: December 31, 2017, 02:23:45 am »
mainstream? probably not with today's technology,  however as a cheap runabout shopping trolley.
when cheap electric cars  get recycled as an aluminium can on wheels.
a $15.000 disposable electric production car. that has
less automation = millennials, need to learn how to drive a car, 
no power steering, no power windows ,less doors less glass   
a 3 door hatchback, no in car entertainment system. that's an extra.
lower gearing 95kmh max speed. =  less powerful motors. 80 km range. its a four seat shopping trolley.
That already exists and is called a golf cart. I've seen these being used for just what you describe.
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Offline b_force

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #54 on: December 31, 2017, 02:54:00 am »
Electrics will be fairly niche for the foreseeable future barring some drastic price drop (don't see that happening bar a new battery innovation), massive government subsidies, or a huge oil shock.
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.
I can clearly see that points of view really depends per country/continent. (in general from comments in this topic)

In dense and highly populated European areas, most people think electric is the way to go. (me included)
There has been done a lot of research and over 80-90% of the people only use a car for daily commuting.
Which is in most cases an average around 20-50km (max). You charge your car at night, go to work the next day.
I know many people happily doing that for years now. Which is VERY convenient actually.
No hassle with fueling up on time etc.

This are also exactly the distances were fuel based engines perform not so well.
In these dense areas they are even trying pilots that people don't really own a car anymore, but that you can just use a car that's parked.
Kind of renting a car on the fly. Once again, this works great in big cities or areas with heaps of people.
That's also were the most pollution is coming from.
Rural Australia is a very different story.

I find your argument about 'convenience' pretty weak. It's just a matter of different thinking.
There are pros and cons to both solution, and I don't think in a sense of convenience neither is better or worse, it's just different.
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.

The main issue is that I don't understand why it's one or the other.
You can have both technologies, just depending on the needs of the customer.
I also wouldn't trust an electric car in the middle of the outback in Australia with barely any charge points.
Go to London, Berlin etc and it's a very different story.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2017, 02:58:59 am by b_force »
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #55 on: December 31, 2017, 03:19:12 am »
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
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Offline b_force

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #56 on: December 31, 2017, 03:22:18 am »
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
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Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #57 on: December 31, 2017, 06:43:07 am »
mainstream? probably not with today's technology,  however as a cheap runabout shopping trolley.
(...)
tesla designs are too up market.  to expensive to be mainstream.
 if you can afford a tesla you can also afford a 4x4 suv with towing capacity.

Agree with that.

People also have to realize that Tesla would probably not be alive anymore by now had it not benefited from large government subsidies of all kinds, direct (see below) and indirect (tax cuts and credits to buyers in a lot of countries).
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html

For electric vehicles to get out of niche markets and become a sustainable business, we need to solve drastic energy issues. Pretty much the same as for energy in general in the future before our whole economy collapses.

A lot of countries already try getting people to lower their electricity consumption. Maintream electric cars would make it explode. How could that ever work? We have to solve the underlying issue first.

 

Offline gmb42

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #58 on: December 31, 2017, 08:24:12 am »
A viewpoint on when the likely crossover point on EV vs. ICE costs might occur is in this lengthy article.

TLDR; battery costs coming down due to economies of scale in production, charge times decreasing due to incremental battery technology improvements and higher power charging stations (350kW), ICE production costs to go up due to emission controls leading to parity by 2024-25 for nearly all car segments.

Note that CleanTechnica are pro-EV, but at least there are numbers in the article that can be somewhat objectively discussed.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #59 on: December 31, 2017, 10:59:01 am »
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
True it is personal preference. Taking a 20 to 30 minute break every 2 hours would make a trip very longwinded for us. With breaks that long you also arrive much later at the hotel (or other destination) which just cuts into dinner time and/or sleep time.
As several have written before: most people buy a car based on 1% of their usage scenario because they can't have multiple cars for several reasons (purchase price, taxes, parking space, etc). This makes the 'most trips are commutes' point completely moot because that is not the driving factor when buying a car. For example when people tow a caravan once or twice a year they look for a car which is up to that task and it is number one on their requirement list. From what I've read on car related fora is that people tend to look mainly at fuel economy when buying a car which is used for commuting.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2017, 11:00:56 am by nctnico »
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Offline b_force

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #60 on: December 31, 2017, 11:04:09 am »
We have to solve the underlying issue first.
Than we can close this whole topic straight away.
The underlying issue is that we are with WAY to many people on this planet.
That's gonna be around 10 billions in 2050.

That's 1.3 times as much as today.

Btw, there is much MORE than just plain battery costs and all these little details.
It's also about infrastructure and simply about the fact that after a while fossil fuels are just not really gonna last anymore.
Moving fuel to a petrol station costs labor, a lot of equipment (using fuel to get fuel somewhere  |O), and is sometimes even pretty dangerous (flammable).
Electricity doesn't have these downsides and is cheaper to 'make in bulk' (means; easier to make electricity and distribute)

But personally I think the most important reason, is that the western world (Europe) is a lot less dependent from oil, that mostly comes from the middle east and Russia.
So there are some (good) political reasons for it as well.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2017, 11:07:18 am by b_force »
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Offline dr.diesel

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #61 on: December 31, 2017, 11:18:14 am »
That already exists and is called a golf cart. I've seen these being used for just what you describe.

I have an electric Golf Cart and use it extensively for local utility work, surpub for the task.

Offline Someone

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #62 on: December 31, 2017, 12:48:34 pm »
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
True it is personal preference. Taking a 20 to 30 minute break every 2 hours would make a trip very longwinded for us. With breaks that long you also arrive much later at the hotel (or other destination) which just cuts into dinner time and/or sleep time.
As several have written before: most people buy a car based on 1% of their usage scenario because they can't have multiple cars for several reasons (purchase price, taxes, parking space, etc). This makes the 'most trips are commutes' point completely moot because that is not the driving factor when buying a car. For example when people tow a caravan once or twice a year they look for a car which is up to that task and it is number one on their requirement list.
Which neatly brings us right back to the point that when you're travelling long distances there is usually more than one person in the car so their "daily" car doesn't need to have those capabilities. Either you're both needing to travel long distances independently at which point charging while taking breaks is a good idea, or you're travelling with another person who isn't using their vehicle and you can pick the most appropriate for the particular journey.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #63 on: December 31, 2017, 01:12:49 pm »
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
True it is personal preference. Taking a 20 to 30 minute break every 2 hours would make a trip very longwinded for us. With breaks that long you also arrive much later at the hotel (or other destination) which just cuts into dinner time and/or sleep time.
As several have written before: most people buy a car based on 1% of their usage scenario because they can't have multiple cars for several reasons (purchase price, taxes, parking space, etc). This makes the 'most trips are commutes' point completely moot because that is not the driving factor when buying a car. For example when people tow a caravan once or twice a year they look for a car which is up to that task and it is number one on their requirement list.
Which neatly brings us right back to the point that when you're travelling long distances there is usually more than one person in the car so their "daily" car doesn't need to have those capabilities. Either you're both needing to travel long distances independently at which point charging while taking breaks is a good idea, or you're travelling with another person who isn't using their vehicle and you can pick the most appropriate for the particular journey.
I my situation it doesn't work that way. It can depend on all kind of things like needing a repair (car temporary out of order), the car needs to be washed, there is still has some luggage inside, different kind/state of tyres, not wanting to make too many kilometers with one particular car to postpone purchase, etc, etc which car gets used most.

Having 1.5 cars instead of 2 will limit your freedom no matter how you turn it around. The article you linked to earlier states that very clear. And need I remind you people buy cars based on 1% of their usage scenario so how likely is it they are going to adapt? If they would be willing to adapt they would already have bought a smaller (cheaper & more limited) car. Ergo your assumption people want to 'make do' with an electric go-kart is wrong because there is a distinct difference between 'can do' and 'willing to do'.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2017, 01:19:14 pm by nctnico »
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Offline Someone

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #64 on: December 31, 2017, 02:04:24 pm »
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
True it is personal preference. Taking a 20 to 30 minute break every 2 hours would make a trip very longwinded for us. With breaks that long you also arrive much later at the hotel (or other destination) which just cuts into dinner time and/or sleep time.
As several have written before: most people buy a car based on 1% of their usage scenario because they can't have multiple cars for several reasons (purchase price, taxes, parking space, etc). This makes the 'most trips are commutes' point completely moot because that is not the driving factor when buying a car. For example when people tow a caravan once or twice a year they look for a car which is up to that task and it is number one on their requirement list.
Which neatly brings us right back to the point that when you're travelling long distances there is usually more than one person in the car so their "daily" car doesn't need to have those capabilities. Either you're both needing to travel long distances independently at which point charging while taking breaks is a good idea, or you're travelling with another person who isn't using their vehicle and you can pick the most appropriate for the particular journey.
I my situation it doesn't work that way. It can depend on all kind of things like needing a repair (car temporary out of order), the car needs to be washed, there is still has some luggage inside, different kind/state of tyres, not wanting to make too many kilometers with one particular car to postpone purchase, etc, etc which car gets used most.

Having 1.5 cars instead of 2 will limit your freedom no matter how you turn it around. The article you linked to earlier states that very clear. And need I remind you people buy cars based on 1% of their usage scenario so how likely is it they are going to adapt? If they would be willing to adapt they would already have bought a smaller (cheaper & more limited) car. Ergo your assumption people want to 'make do' with an electric go-kart is wrong because there is a distinct difference between 'can do' and 'willing to do'.
Except we're at the point now where electric cars are available at many price/model points equivalent to many different fuel powered cars and the primary difference is they have a limited range and slower energy filling/charging, so its not a comparison to a "lesser" car 0.5 as you say but the same car with a different fuel source. You've continually tried to frame electric cars as inferior in some way without direct comparisons to similar vehicles. As the paper pointed to there is no need for most people to adapt, they already use their cars in a way that is compatible with an electric vehicle.

TCO varies significantly from region to region and may swing either way for particular people which is true of cars in general and the petrol/diesel divisions.

You're welcome to have redundant vehicles with identical capabilities as your choice but trying to project that view onto everyone else is obnoxious, especially when we've been able to present the data to show how wrong your point of view has been.
 
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Offline b_force

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #65 on: January 01, 2018, 01:15:27 am »
We can all come up with little personal and individual reasons.
The way how the market works is look at the bigger numbers.
Like I said before, how are most cars being used and how can you cut the most significant number from that.
90% of all cars are being used by just one person only (yes, using a >1000kg machine to move 70kg person)

In that perspective an electric car works much better than a combustion engine.
Add safety and noise pollution to it as well. (although a big junk is mostly because of the noise from the tires, a significant part is still the engine)
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #66 on: January 01, 2018, 01:45:51 am »
We can all come up with little personal and individual reasons.
The way how the market works is look at the bigger numbers.
Like I said before, how are most cars being used and how can you cut the most significant number from that.
90% of all cars are being used by just one person only (yes, using a >1000kg machine to move 70kg person)
What you see nowadays is that electric cars get bought by people to whom an electric car is beneficial. Saying that an electric car works for nearly everyone with the big IF they change the way they use the car is just plain wrong. In such a situation an electric car basically gets degraded to a make-do crutch and is similar to advising people to use a horse & carriage instead of a proper car. If you look on car related fora at why people buy a certain car the 1% usage scenario is at the top of the requirements list so a car which can't do what is important to the buyer isn't going to fit the requirements. It is as simple as that. Nearly good enough isn't good enough.

All in all let the market do its job indeed and when better/cheaper/more versatile electric cars become available more people will buy them.
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Offline b_force

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #67 on: January 01, 2018, 02:19:30 am »
We can all come up with little personal and individual reasons.
The way how the market works is look at the bigger numbers.
Like I said before, how are most cars being used and how can you cut the most significant number from that.
90% of all cars are being used by just one person only (yes, using a >1000kg machine to move 70kg person)
What you see nowadays is that electric cars get bought by people to whom an electric car is beneficial. Saying that an electric car works for nearly everyone with the big IF they change the way they use the car is just plain wrong. In such a situation an electric car basically gets degraded to a make-do crutch and is similar to advising people to use a horse & carriage instead of a proper car. If you look on car related fora at why people buy a certain car the 1% usage scenario is at the top of the requirements list so a car which can't do what is important to the buyer isn't going to fit the requirements. It is as simple as that. Nearly good enough isn't good enough.

All in all let the market do its job indeed and when better/cheaper/more versatile electric cars become available more people will buy them.
I agree with you, but keep in mind that the government also has a big part in this for multiple reasons.
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Offline Blocco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #68 on: January 03, 2018, 01:15:40 am »
Looking at many of the posts here I was beginning to think the title of this thread was; "100 contrived reasons why YOU don't want an electric car" :-//

To reply to the original question, I think, here in the UK, we will see a significant increase in popularity within 5 years and mainstream acceptance i.e. where two-car families typically own at least one electric car in around 10 years.

However, in the UK at least, now is probably the best time to drive an electric car because of low second-hand prices and substantial running cost savings compared to a petrol or diesel vehicle. My 2015 Nissan LEAF saves me around £2000 ukp per year compared to my previous diesel car and is far more suited to the daily commute, it's the closest thing to free driving we are ever likely to see.
 
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Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #69 on: January 03, 2018, 02:57:56 am »
However, in the UK at least, now is probably the best time to drive an electric car because of low second-hand prices and substantial running cost savings compared to a petrol or diesel vehicle. My 2015 Nissan LEAF saves me around £2000 ukp per year compared to my previous diesel car and is far more suited to the daily commute, it's the closest thing to free driving we are ever likely to see.
Most European countries developed a model of massive taxation on transportation fuel to fund their transport infrastructure. They are always going to need that money which current electric car users are saving. As the electric car market grows it will be interesting to see how they try to manage the transition from subsidising electric cars as a stimulus, to clawing enough cash from electric car users to fund the roads.
 
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Offline Someone

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #70 on: January 03, 2018, 08:06:54 am »
However, in the UK at least, now is probably the best time to drive an electric car because of low second-hand prices and substantial running cost savings compared to a petrol or diesel vehicle. My 2015 Nissan LEAF saves me around £2000 ukp per year compared to my previous diesel car and is far more suited to the daily commute, it's the closest thing to free driving we are ever likely to see.
Most European countries developed a model of massive taxation on transportation fuel to fund their transport infrastructure. They are always going to need that money which current electric car users are saving. As the electric car market grows it will be interesting to see how they try to manage the transition from subsidising electric cars as a stimulus, to clawing enough cash from electric car users to fund the roads.
Thats an ageing myth, are you perhaps a time traveller from 1937?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motoring_taxation_in_the_United_Kingdom
Because thats when the segregation of funds ended and the income entered general revenue. Though it seems the UK continues to use these sources as a cash cow:
http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/consumer-news/89224/only-a-quarter-of-car-tax-is-spent-on-roads
2018 has 31.7 billion (3.9%) noted for the transport budget, 11.4 billion of that going to railways which leaves much less than 15 billion (2%) total for roads. These don't dominate the budget and it will be easy to find other taxation to cover the loss of fuel taxes, just changing the vehicle excise duty slowly over time so that electric vehicles also pay their share will do it. The more difficult part is trying to match some sort of user pays scale so that people pay proportionally for what they're using such as with distance and axle load factors.
 

Offline james_s

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #71 on: January 03, 2018, 11:48:44 am »
It could be argued that electric cars already *are* mainstream, at least in more affluent techy areas. Here on the outskirts of Seattle I have 3 good friends who all have pure electric cars as their daily driver. One is a Chevy Bolt and the other two are Kias. Then there are two coworkers and my dad who have them, Ford Focus electric I think is one, and Nissan Leafs. I don't personally know anyone who has a Tesla but I see them on the road pretty much every day, electric cars are all over the place.

An electric with a 50 mile range could easily work for 95% of my driving which is my commute to work and various errands, for longer trips I could borrow my partner's car or drive one of my classics, failing that I could rent a car for those very rare occasions when nobody I know could loan me one. If I didn't love driving my old Volvo wagon so much I'd seriously consider an electric. Putting gas in my paid-for car is cheaper than making payments on anything new but if I had any intention of ever buying a new car anyway the economics and convenience factor would be in favor of electric.
 

Online cdev

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #72 on: January 03, 2018, 01:11:08 pm »
Electric / gas hybrid cars are pretty common where I live and have been for a long time. Electric only cars much less so but I still see them fairly often.  Location: An eastern US suburb near a major city.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2018, 01:14:59 pm by cdev »
"What the large print giveth, the small print taketh away."
 

Offline SparkyFX

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #73 on: January 03, 2018, 07:23:40 pm »
Well, there are other things to consider:
  • the degrading of batteries directly affects range, which is uncommon with ICE, they either break or lose power and a bit of range over time.
  • range estimates in brochures are based on best case scenarios, whereas air condition or heating - powered directly from the battery - take a heavy cut off it´s range (in ICE cars heat can be provided from excess heat and is therefore reused waste heat), converting the "expensively" generated and stored energy into heat is necessary, but takes a good bite, well-to-wheel it´s probably still better than gas in terms of efficiency, but the storage capacity is at the edge of being competitive
  • given the amount of people that drive with malfunction indicator lamp (MIL), those might be concerned or misinformed and rely on their network of people that can repair their car. Trying to do that with an electric car is currently just not possible and thats a big hurdle to overcome. So this is at the time a thing for early adopters that are willing to only service the car at the authorized dealership at full cost, which  also hugely impacts the trade price for a used car, where maintenance cost is a big factor. (which is why a range extender is usually a very good stop gap measure)
  • a non insignificant amount of people needs to tow trailers, which is a problem of its own for an electrical vehicle (see first few posts on motor protection against overload in the first electric cars for a comparison)
So, never trust a statistic you haven´t falsified yourself, or in other words: range estimates need to take such things as climate and degrading into account. Additionally the technical feasability to use an electric daily driver alone is only a part of a whole ecosystem, even if most parts are absolutely the same technology.
It will take a while to overcome a certain critical mass so that e.g. running repair shops for electrical cars are as widespread that people have some trust in using that technology. Most car mechanics repell new stuff for a while and rather avoid working on that until they have no other chance. Discussing how reliable a manufacturers support alone will be is a bit counter-intuitive, this and many other forums are the best proof that self help is often preferred over being dependent on warranty or goodwill. The product can be as good as it can be, but it will usually be designed for an ideal customer or for certain focus groups and that is a problem in the used car market.

Yet those cars need to be as safe as possible (even better than average), without making mistakes by rushing it just to have it shipped. A few incidents caused by technical problems are enough to ruin a whole concept or manufacturer by loss of trust. To ensure success, that also translates into higher production cost, making a new concept less competitive.

Those are at least my two cents on that.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2018, 07:29:07 pm by SparkyFX »
 
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Offline IanMacdonald

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #74 on: January 03, 2018, 08:31:29 pm »
Think I've said this before but the major issues are:

Not having a dedicated driveway or garage at which to charge the car is a pretty fundamental problem. Many Scottish houses do not, and even the new ones are often built with separate shared parking. The problem there would be that an illegal parker in your space means no use of the car tomorrow.

Not everyone is a commuter. Some people only use their cars for longer distance journeys. Even with a 200 mile range, as soon as you go beyond 100 miles you risk being stranded if there are no charge points. Or if they are all in use.

The cost of a hotel room for an overnight charging stop totally outweighs any fuel cost saving. (and when you consider the extra energy used in an overnight stop, overall energy use is probably more than returning home with an IC engine)

The majority of the car market is for used cars. Buying new is very expensive in terms of depreciation.  Used electric cars will be a big gamble due to battery condition questions.

We are constantly being told to turn off lights to save the limited amount of energy provided by renewables. One electric car motor, 2000 lightbulbs or more. No calculator needed for this one. It is simply unsustainable to add transport to the demands placed on renewables.
 


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